Do the Sabres make the playoffs this season (second edition)

[CallawaySabres]

I am pretty sure this organization is broken and there really is no answer. The hiring of Ruff was just wow, a total failure of a publicity stunt aimed to make people feel something again. I see this team as being in the bottom 5 league-wide. Maybe with good goaltending they get to 10th worst in the league. 

There is nothing left, I mean, there is really nothing left to be hopeful for if you are a Sabres fan. The fan-base is more broken than the team and I really don't see it coming back for years. That building on Thursday is going to be a hornets nest if they are losing after the 1st period.

[mjd1001]

39 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

They were 23rd in the league in scoring WITH Skinner and Mittelstadt.

I also appreciate it's still early, but how in the hell does this team get playoff level scoring without two of their best producers from last year?!?!

Short answer: I really don't now.

Longer answer:  You start by playing the way this team played after Jan 1 of last year, for more than half the season. The team turned a corner in some ways almost literally after Jan 1.  Skinner played less.  UPL took over as your #1 goalie. Part of that was after trading Mitts for Byram. You moved on from Okposo. Cozens actually started playing better in his own zone (although he seems to have regressed this year again.)  All those things happened (primarily) after Jan 1 and the team went 24-18-2 and were a postive 24 in goal differential.

That is your starting point

-In that time after Jan 1 where the team played better, Skinner had his ice time reduced (the last 2 months of the season he was down to the 13-14 minute mark per game). He played 39 games, had 9 goals (less than a 19 goal pace per 82). He also didn't score in the last 13 games in a row.  So, when this team played its best, for more than 1/2 the season, it was when Skinner had his ice time reduced and was scoring at a 19 goal per season pace.

How do you replace that production? Have a winger on your roster score 10-15 and actually play defense so they prevent 4-9 goals vs Skinner over the rest of the year.

-Mitts. Since the team starting playing better Jan 1 until he was traded, he played in 24 games, and scored 4 goals. He did have 12 assists, but that puts him at 13.5 goal, 54 point pace. Easy to replace with what the Sabres have no? No, but not a monumental lift. They also were 10-8-2 in the 20 games after he traded, so not a huge drop moving him out and Byram in. 

How do you replace his production? Simple, Tage and Cozens need to pick up what they did last year. Tage actually DID the 2nd half of the season, Cozens needs to lift up the rest.

So the medium length (and best) answer to your question:  Line #1 (Tage, Tuch, Peterka)..you need to get 90-95 + goals out of them.  Line #2 (Cozens, Benson, Quinn)..you need to get 65-70+ goals out of them.  For me thats it.  IF we want to say the Bottom 2 lines are the same (or SLIGHTLY improved from last years team), then have the first 2 produce at that level, and you are there. 

Forget about 'just' career years, lets look at the last 3 years (ups AND downs combined). Tuch averaged about 29 goals per 82 games and is now in his prime. Tage averaged 41.5 goals per 82 over the last 3 seasons.  JJ in his 2 full seasons averages about 21, almost had 30 last year and is still not in his prime yet.  On the first line he will get more ice time and more chances. Again, is it a guarantee to happen? Nope, but that is HOW this team plays well, those players have it in them.

You are paying Cozens over $7m per season, hes still a train wreck in his own zone so for him to 'earn' his money he should be able to give you close to 30 (he needs to).  The above gets you there.

Now, if they DON'T do that, you have a big problem. But they are capable of doing it, now its just those players, and the coaching staff, getting them to that point.  I'm not 100% sure its going to happen, but after 2 games I certainly am not at the sky-is-falling, doom and gloom, this team will never ever win again point....that many others appear to be at.

Edited October 7 by mjd1001

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

They were 23rd in the league in scoring WITH Skinner and Mittelstadt.

I also appreciate it's still early, but how in the hell does this team get playoff level scoring without two of their best producers from last year?!?!

Revamped “4th line”, didn’t you hear??

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

It isn’t a plan. As Thorny likes to mention with some frequency, every team in the league gets 7 new opportunities to add new young talent to their team every year.

When noone wants to come to your organization, there is little alternative, so you roll with those 7 league granted chances and see if snake eyes doesn’t come up this time.  And you try to sell them to the fanbase as a plan.

Exactly. You can’t draft your way out of it in any reasonable, earthly timeline. It’s hard to make up ground there at all when other teams are also getting free draft picks every year. It’s a crapshoot draft. We can make up a little with great drafting aptitude that’ll bear fruit in half a decade but it is not *close* to the size of the gap between all the rest of the talent, organization wide considered.

You can’t draft your way out of it. You can’t spend your way out of it. You have to do both. That “balance” is some sort of revelation to some, including those in charge, is absurd. They figured out how to draft well, and for one reason or any other, none of which there are excuses for, they essentially abandoned the other aspects of team building. Right when you finally had the drafting acumen to achieve balance.

Insulting to the fanbase? A function of pure stupidity? Take your pick 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

We bought out Skinner and Mittelstadt was an RFA. In a world where no one wants to come to our team, we got rid of two of the best guys we had.

No wonder nobody wants to come here.

They didn’t want to pay him. Either because we don’t want to spend money, or because of an overconfidence in the players we did give long contracts to, or a prioritization of a timeline further down the road when we presumably see our RFAs replacing his production. 

Choose your own adventure 

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Short answer: I really don't now.

Longer answer:  You start by playing the way this team played after Jan 1 of last year, for more than half the season. The team turned a corner in some ways almost literally after Jan 1.  Skinner played less.  UPL took over as your #1 goalie. Part of that was after trading Mitts for Byram. You moved on from Okposo. Cozens actually started playing better in his own zone (although he seems to have regressed this year again.)  All those things happened (primarily) after Jan 1 and the team went 24-18-2 and were a postive 24 in goal differential.

That is your starting point

-In that time after Jan 1 where the team played better, Skinner had his ice time reduced (the last 2 months of the season he was down to the 13-14 minute mark per game). He played 39 games, had 9 goals (less than a 19 goal pace per 82). He also didn't score in the last 13 games in a row.  So, when this team played its best, for more than 1/2 the season, it was when Skinner had his ice time reduced and was scoring at a 19 goal per season pace.

How do you replace that production? Have a winger on your roster score 10-15 and actually play defense so they prevent 4-9 goals vs Skinner over the rest of the year.

-Mitts. Since the team starting playing better Jan 1 until he was traded, he played in 24 games, and scored 4 goals. He did have 12 assists, but that puts him at 13.5 goal, 54 point pace. Easy to replace with what the Sabres have no? No, but not a monumental lift. They also were 10-8-2 in the 20 games after he traded, so not a huge drop moving him out and Byram in. 

How do you replace his production? Simple, Tage and Cozens need to pick up what they did last year. Tage actually DID the 2nd half of the season, Cozens needs to lift up the rest.

So the medium length (and best) answer to your question:  Line #1 (Tage, Tuch, Peterka)..you need to get 90-95 + goals out of them.  Line #2 (Cozens, Benson, Quinn)..you need to get 65-70+ goals out of them.  For me thats it.  IF we want to say the Bottom 2 lines are the same (or SLIGHTLY improved from last years team), then have the first 2 produce at that level, and you are there. 

Forget about 'just' career years, lets look at the last 3 years (ups AND downs combined). Tuch averaged about 29 goals per 82 games and is now in his prime. Tage averaged 41.5 goals per 82 over the last 3 seasons.  JJ in his 2 full seasons averages about 21, almost had 30 last year and is still not in his prime yet.  On the first line he will get more ice time and more chances. Again, is it a guarantee to happen? Nope, but that is HOW this team plays well, those players have it in them.

You are paying Cozens over $7m per season, hes still a train wreck in his own zone so for him to 'earn' his money he should be able to give you close to 30 (he needs to).  The above gets you there.

Now, if they DON'T do that, you have a big problem. But they are capable of doing it, now its just those players, and the coaching staff, getting them to that point.  I'm not 100% sure its going to happen, but after 2 games I certainly am not at the sky-is-falling, doom and gloom, this team will never ever win again point....that many others appear to be at.

Have you ever heard that thing about how human beings generally pick the answer they want in advance, and then find the reasons to support it, after the fact? I wouldn’t be surprised at all of Adams and co pieced together a plan exactly like the one you laid out: and it’s the reason we keep failing. When you skewer and cherry pick the numbers so throughly, time and time again (a 20 game sample size here, a 25 game sample size there, a 13 game sample size over here, let’s focus on goals and not assists, let’s focus on our overall team record over a stretch of season demonstrably unreflective time and time again because wins when you are essentially out of it aren’t the same, ignoring of Skinner’s actually very good production to lion’s share of his time here in favour of a short stretch where he was benched…etc etc) what you end up with is a bunch of “well, maybes” that when compounded on eachother functionally make the result you want a shot in the dark

Which doesn’t even break the surface of the most important ignored variable: the amount the presence of Mittelstadt, who often performed as our best F, buoyed the totals of the other forwards you keep mentioning. Not only through actual aid to production, but in terms of players being properly slotted in roles. It’s ridiculously hard for Cozens and Tage to *make up* what we lost in Casey because you are counting on improvement upon something they did WITH Casey!

We’d be asking a lot of them to return to 22-23 form WITH the complementary roster they had, to ask them to return to form, WITHOUT the guy who was as good or better than they were when they were doing it, and THEN also find a way to *replace* the outright production of that facilitator without the facilitator is not really a hope, it’s a last resort. An unlikely shot in the dark.

You *need* to adequately supplement the forward ranks, which brings us back to “waiting on the kids” if the best they can and will do is Jason Zucker and Beck freaking Malenstyn, a player we had literally never heard of before we acquired him.

- - - 

If we cut to the chase, realistically the answer to almost every “when, how can we be good” question, as long as we are operating the way we are, is simply, and only “if the kids excel we’ll be good.”

Maybe we’ve just said it so many times we forget the fact it’s really the only prevalent factor, here: the dna of this team is measured in “future” currency. If the youth ever surprises, we’ll be good. I don’t see much strategy beyond assemble young talent and hope for the best  

 

Edited October 7 by Thorner

[Mr Peabody]

We all read how we got tougher and harder to play against. Dillon never got the message I guess. That is not on the players, it’s on the team construction.  If I’ve got young kids like JK, Quinn, Benson, Cozens, Power, Bryam in the line-up I’d want a deterrent to someone who wants to knock them into the cheap seats.  Tampa got pounded by Columbus (?)In the playoffs and went out and got Maroon.  We’ve needed that to give our kids a safety blanket.  Eichel asked for it before he said he wanted out. 

[Ravenking32]

With the response to the Dillon hit I’m sure that will not happen again this season. Sigh 

[zow2]

What does history tell us about starting 0-2.

[Weave]

18 minutes ago, zow2 said:

What does history tell us about starting 0-2.

It tells us we have the rest of the season to try and get 4 more points than the teams that started 2-0.

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Thorner said:

Have you ever heard that thing about how human beings generally pick the answer they want in advance, and then find the reasons to support it, after the fact? I wouldn’t be surprised at all of Adams and co pieced together a plan exactly like the one you laid out: and it’s the reason we keep failing. 

 

 

I get it, I said in my post a few times it might not work out, but I was simply answering the question of how do you replace the production of Mitts and Skinner, I gave the best 'possible' answer based on the current roster.  It may not work, as I said, but with what we have, what I said is the 'best chance'.

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I get it, I said in my post a few times it might not work out, but I was simply answering the question of how do you replace the production of Mitts and Skinner, I gave the best 'possible' answer based on the current roster.  It may not work, as I said, but with what we have, what I said is the 'best chance'.

It’s a good post. I just despise the incorporated logic of choice 

[North Buffalo]

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/zHnEC2XWoc3i8Ci7/?mibextid=UalRPS

[North Buffalo]

Afterwards: https://youtube.com/shorts/BzjG5pt9uUA?si=peThfdrGvcsKXt3E

[Mr Peabody]

Was listening to Bruce Boudreau this afternoon and he acknowledged NJ’s team play but said what hit him most was Sabre’s lack of anger in 3rd period.  Said they look and play like losing is fine.   Said they need to get po’d and hate losing and play like that.
 

I’m not sure it’s in our DNA.   Wanting to be here seems to trump hate losing. 

[#freejame]

12 minutes ago, Mr Peabody said:

Was listening to Bruce Boudreau this afternoon and he acknowledged NJ’s team play but said what hit him most was Sabre’s lack of anger in 3rd period.  Said they look and play like losing is fine.   Said they need to get po’d and hate losing and play like that.
 

I’m not sure it’s in our DNA.   Wanting to be here seems to trump hate losing. 

I was saying this at the end of the first game. They needed to be setting the tempo for game 2 and they didn’t. It’s the little things that they don’t do that make a big difference. 

[Archie Lee]

5 hours ago, zow2 said:

What does history tell us about starting 0-2.

Last year only 3 of 16 playoff teams started with two losses; encouragingly, Fla and Edm were two of them (LA was the other). None started with three straight losses. The season is long, but I think it can be generally said that teams that are playoff contenders don’t start the year 0-3 (and don’t spend $7 million below the cap, and don’t hire a head coach without an actual search, and don’t start the season with the youngest line-up in the league and a top 6 with an average age of only 23). 

[Archie Lee]

37 minutes ago, Mr Peabody said:

Was listening to Bruce Boudreau this afternoon and he acknowledged NJ’s team play but said what hit him most was Sabre’s lack of anger in 3rd period.  Said they look and play like losing is fine.   Said they need to get po’d and hate losing and play like that.
 

I’m not sure it’s in our DNA.   Wanting to be here seems to trump hate losing. 

Such a good observation. The team played joyless, disconnected, uncommitted hockey in Prague. 2022-23 was the year that the players rose above expectations and played to a level and outcome whose sum was greater than the assembled parts. From there they needed management to buy in and fully support the players ready to take the next step. Hasn’t happened and things may have stagnated. 

[Weave]

1 hour ago, Mr Peabody said:

Was listening to Bruce Boudreau this afternoon and he acknowledged NJ’s team play but said what hit him most was Sabre’s lack of anger in 3rd period.  Said they look and play like losing is fine.   Said they need to get po’d and hate losing and play like that.
 

I’m not sure it’s in our DNA.   Wanting to be here seems to trump hate losing. 

This put into words what I was thinking.

No anger at losing a 2nd time.  No passion over JJPs hit and injury.  Just no passion.

14 seasons of this.  This is what it looks like when you stop demanding a team wins.  And now we see how incredibly difficult it is to get it back once it leaves.

[Pimlach]

14 hours ago, #freejame said:

Pham mentioned on WGR last week that Ruff looks exhausted these days compared to his first stint. Obviously he’s older. Hopefully he’s cut out. 

The guy is 64.  He just spent over a week on the road in Europe.  He was probably tired.  

12 hours ago, Weave said:

My theory is Lindy had to be talked into this, and agreed out of a sense of loyalty to Buffalo.  There were no other established, successful coaches that wanted the job.

This surprises me.  Several have said that Buffalo never reached out.  

Edited October 8 by Pimlach

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

Last year only 3 of 16 playoff teams started with two losses; encouragingly, Fla and Edm were two of them (LA was the other). None started with three straight losses. The season is long, but I think it can be generally said that teams that are playoff contenders don’t start the year 0-3 (and don’t spend $7 million below the cap, and don’t hire a head coach without an actual search, and don’t start the season with the youngest line-up in the league and a top 6 with an average age of only 23). 

But if we win that game..

[B-U-F-F-A-L-O]

I have to stick with my beliefs on this team and Ruff….

Yes. We do have the talent, the grit and the desire to make the playoffs this year. They are doing a reverse Bills…

Though they are doing to good of a job so far….Showing none of the  3 key points from above….

You can stop it now! Everyone is completely fooled….

[TRIP65]

They went to Europe and I bet Ruff has been viewing tirelessly the Video he has is short time on his TEAM

Ruff does not know his players yet, NHL screwed him of his first normal preseason with his new TEAM

On 10/7/2024 at 7:42 AM, Ravenking32 said:

If the lose Thursday and the Panthers blow us out Saturday the home environment will be toxic. I almost expect  the  fire Adam’s chants as soon as the 1st period against the Kings. Great job Kev. 

No major trades and no Playoffs will have Adams gone

[TRIP65]

On 10/7/2024 at 9:16 AM, Mustache of God said:

Last year the team couldn't string multiple wins together to save their lives. I'm not freaking out about 2 losses to start the season but the way they lost concerns me. I need to see them get a W and follow that up with two or 3 more wins to feel more comfortable.

NJ was a bad team to get 2X in a row

They know Lindy well and they addressed some issues to the 2nd ranked Conference Team led by Lindy 2 years ago!

[TRIP65]

22 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

They were 23rd in the league in scoring WITH Skinner and Mittelstadt.

I also appreciate it's still early, but how in the hell does this team get playoff level scoring without two of their best producers from last year?!?!

You answered your own question

We weren't good enough with Skinner and Middlestat, that wasn't going to change

We all know we need a 1C, Tage is good but inconsistent. Not sold at all on Cozens. Not even sure about Tuch but at least I want to see what he can do with a REAL Center

This team scored 2 years ago from Tage Tuch, Peterka will score and Quinn will too

Bottom six is new, Those lines will gel quick enough

Two games with the same team in Europe is NOT a good feel for what this Team is, nor was their 3-0 stompings in Preseason

Ruff needs time to get to know his Players and Force Adams hand when Trades are needed

 

Ruff will have Pegula's Backing!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Adams has NO collateral left