Turnover, opening day last year vs this year

[mjd1001]

I was curious to look at the roster and see what differences will be made this year vs last year opening the season. 

Compared to game #1 last year vs what we expect this year:

-New to the forward group game 1: Quinn (was hurt last year), Zucker, Mcleod, Malenstyn, Lafferty, Aube-Kubel 

Out from forwards: Krebs (likely), Okposo, Zemgus, Mitts, Skinner, VO

-New to defense: Byram (in for E. Johnson)

-New to goal: UPL (he didn't dress for the opener last year he was the #3 guy at the time)

Coaching:  Ruff and Appert are the 2 main guys of course, both changes from last year.

 

So, going into game #1, 50% different lineup in forwards, 17% difference on D. New starting Goalie.  Of the 19 players that should play on any given game, 11 will be the same and 8 will be different from last years team (42% turnover from last year's game 1), and a new coaching staff too.

Edited 3 hours ago by mjd1001

[dudacek]

I've talked a bit about this roster maybe reaching critical mass in terms of talent and age.

I've never really fully bought into the "guys who know how to win" thing but if it's real i wonder if reached a point where it could make a difference.

Zucker played beside Crosby, McLeod with McDavid.

Byram and Aube-Kubel won a cup with Colorado. Lafferty was also with the Penguins and was part of the Vancouver turnaround last year.

Johnson is the only departure who had any sort of track record with excellence.

Five of the six departing forwards had never played a playoff game.

[GASabresIUFAN]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Five of the six departing forwards had never played a playoff game.

Not an accurate statement.  

KO played 24 playoffs games for the NYI (and won a Cup with Fla playing in 17 playoffs games last season)

Jost played 46 playoffs games for Colo/Minn

Robinson played 10 playoff games for CBJ

VO, Mitts, Z and Skinner had no playoff experience, but 3 of the 4 grew up in the sad Sabres organization.  As soon Mitts  escaped he put up 9 pts in 11 playoff games for the AVS.

Playoff experience may or may not be meaningful, but the problems with this organization went far beyond players without playoff experience.  Starting with bad coaching and poor management.  Put any of the departed guys in the right situation and they'd be fine in the playoffs as Mitts & KO just proved. 

The most important part of the turnover is whether the new players make us better.  If the new 4th line can help tilt the ice in our direction by their fast hitting style then it's going to be a positive change.  

Edited 1 hour ago by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

The optimist in me says the young high skilled forwards will continue to improve and mostly excel and we will have 2 solid top lines. The D isn't perfect but it's deeper. highly mobile and highly skilled and thus should help drive the play. UPL will continue to develop his consistency and be as good or better than last year and Levi will also be NHL able as a 25-30ish game back up. The bottom six will have good chemistry and bring more physicality and compete than we have had in the past. Ruff will game manage well like a real NHL coach does. 

The pessimist in me thinks our top forwards were overrated, Thompson is what he was last year not the year before. Cozens is also no better than last year and Quinn isn't as good as people think. Zucker is a has been and will be Okposo level at best. The third line won't gel and the 4th line, although fast and adequately aggressive against weaker competition will fall apart against the top competition who have also gotten heavier and bigger as a general trend. The D will be good moving the puck but will still be horrible in their own end and in and around the paint. UPL will drop back to inconsistency and Levi will not be ready and show clear weaknesses. Ruff won't really make a difference and some players might not respond well to him when he demands more. 

Either is possible. Likely, it'll be a mix of both and that may or may not get us there. 

[mjd1001]

There is reason for optimism. It may not guarantee the playoffs, but anyone looking toward the good side of things can find legit reasons:

-2 years ago missed the playoffs by one win

-last year were a positive goal differential. In recent years 95%+ of teams with a positive goal differential made the playoffs.

-Took them a while to settle on UPL, but once they did, the team was close to a top 10 team in the league, and not just over 10-15 games, we are talking 40-50+ games.

-Tage played hurt for a lot of the year. The part of the year closer to his injury his production was way down. As he got farther from it, he started producing a lot more, basically at the level of the 2 years before. Since being made a center, tage had 2 full seasons that were great, one half season bad and another half season close to great. The only 'bad' stretch was when he was hurt.

-Coaching?  If you think Ruff is better than Granato (many do), if nothing else changed, that should be a net positive.

Again, none of this means you are making the playoffs, but if someone is being positive, this year its not grasping at straws, those are just a few of the legitimate reasons to be positive.

[TheAud]

22 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

The pessimist in me thinks our top forwards were overrated, Thompson is what he was last year not the year before.

Do you mean what he was the prior two years? He scored 29 goals in 71 games last year. That's a 31-32 goals-in-78 game pace.

The prior two seasons he played 78 games each year and scored 47 and 38 goals. 

Is it possible in his age 27 season this year that he is already declining and we have already seen peak Tage? Sure, but it seems unlikely. 

If he stays healthy I'd bet a steak dinner Thompson is good for 35+ this year, and more likely 40.  

[Derrico]

It's a couple of days before the season opener.  Despite wishing they brought in one more top 6 forward, I think there's plenty of reason for optimism.  

Tuch / Thompson / Peterka is a legitimate top line for a playoff team

Benson / Cozens / Quinn has so much potential.  Could be just as fun as Peterka Quinn Cozens from two years ago

Zucker / McLeod / Greenway is one of the better projected third lines we've had in a long time

Malenstyn / Lafferty / Aube-Kubel comprises of legitimate 4th line NHLers who excel at playing a defensive game rather than the washed up NHL/AHL tweeners we've been running out the past few years.  No doubt Lindy had a say in who he wanted to bring in.  Should be much improved from a roster construction standpoint.

The Defense looks to be deeper than past years and OP is another year older now.  Lots of potential in the top 3 of Dahlin, Byram and Power

Many thought Levi was the savior last year but its tough making the jump from juniors.  A professional year under his belt now and he is going in as the backup if he remains with the big club.  As Thorny (Thorner?) said, betting odds are UPL is who he was last season, particularly if they play tighter D under Ruff.   

It'll come down to health.  We can't afford to lose any top players (especially top 6) for any length of time.  But the critical mass of drafting high and developing has arrived.  I sure hope it doesn't go poorly because most of our key contributors are home grown and finally at the age/experience that they should be difference makers.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

The optimist in me says the young high skilled forwards will continue to improve and mostly excel and we will have 2 solid top lines. The D isn't perfect but it's deeper. highly mobile and highly skilled and thus should help drive the play. UPL will continue to develop his consistency and be as good or better than last year and Levi will also be NHL able as a 25-30ish game back up. The bottom six will have good chemistry and bring more physicality and compete than we have had in the past. Ruff will game manage well like a real NHL coach does. 

The pessimist in me thinks our top forwards were overrated, Thompson is what he was last year not the year before. Cozens is also no better than last year and Quinn isn't as good as people think. Zucker is a has been and will be Okposo level at best. The third line won't gel and the 4th line, although fast and adequately aggressive against weaker competition will fall apart against the top competition who have also gotten heavier and bigger as a general trend. The D will be good moving the puck but will still be horrible in their own end and in and around the paint. UPL will drop back to inconsistency and Levi will not be ready and show clear weaknesses. Ruff won't really make a difference and some players might not respond well to him when he demands more. 

Either is possible. Likely, it'll be a mix of both and that may or may not get us there. 

C'mon, this is fake news.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Not an accurate statement.  

KO played 24 playoffs games for the NYI (and won a Cup with Fla playing in 17 playoffs games last season)

Jost played 46 playoffs games for Colo/Minn

Robinson played 10 playoff games for CBJ

VO, Mitts, Z and Skinner had no playoff experience, but 3 of the 4 grew up in the sad Sabres organization.  As soon Mitts  escaped he put up 9 pts in 11 playoff games for the AVS.

Playoff experience may or may not be meaningful, but the problems with this organization went far beyond players without playoff experience.  Starting with bad coaching and poor management.  Put any of the departed guys in the right situation and they'd be fine in the playoffs as Mitts & KO just proved. 

The most important part of the turnover is whether the new players make us better.  If the new 4th line can help tilt the ice in our direction by their fast hitting style then it's going to be a positive change.  

I was referring to the six departed opening night players (Krebs (likely), Okposo, Zemgus, Mitts, Skinner, VO) in the opening post.

So entirely accurate. 😘