Media Predictions for the Sabres!

[GASabresIUFAN]

From ESPN  https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/41419134/nhl-predictions-2024-25-scoring-trades-stats-playoffs-awards-leaders

"Buffalo Sabres

The playoff drought ends

The last time the Sabres made the playoffs, "Fast 5" was in theaters, a duet between Katy Perry and Kanye West was the No. 1 song in the U.S. and their coach was ... the same guy who's coaching them now? Wait, that can't be right, can it?

Yup. Lindy Ruff returns to the franchise where he coached 15 seasons and finds a Sabres team that hasn't made the postseason cut since 2011. He also finds a team with two pillars on defense (Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power); a collection of young standout forwards in their top six; and a revamped bottom six that brings speed this team lacked under Don Granato. While he doesn't have Dominik Hasek or Ryan Miller between the pipes, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was strong last season and Devon Levi's underlying numbers showed promise.

Look, there is a mountainous amount of stuff that needs to go right for the Sabres to make the playoffs. It starts with Ruff getting a young roster to commit defensively in ways it hasn't before -- something he had success with for a time during his last stop in New Jersey. It requires good health and core players continuing on their growth trajectories. Most of all, it requires a spot opening up for them in the conference from the teams that qualified last season -- perhaps even two spots, if we assume the Devils are back in the playoff picture.

So let's call this an "educated prayer." Ultimately, I think enough breaks right for Buffalo for them to emerge from that pack of rebuilders in the Atlantic. The streak ends. The playoff tailgates in Buffalo begin."

[PerreaultForever]

Well let's hope so, but there are so many maybes it's impossible to say. A lot of things have to go right for the Sabres and wrong for several of the other teams in the division. 

We've been touted as that team before and we always end up "a year away" year after year. 

[Demoted]

The bar is very low, make the playoffs. That is all people want just get there for once and break the curse.

[RochesterExpat]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well let's hope so, but there are so many maybes it's impossible to say. A lot of things have to go right for the Sabres and wrong for several of the other teams in the division. 

This is exactly how I’m viewing this season. It doesn’t exactly instill confidence, but I will admit I am hopeful.

[JohnC]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

From ESPN  https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/41419134/nhl-predictions-2024-25-scoring-trades-stats-playoffs-awards-leaders

"Buffalo Sabres

The playoff drought ends

The last time the Sabres made the playoffs, "Fast 5" was in theaters, a duet between Katy Perry and Kanye West was the No. 1 song in the U.S. and their coach was ... the same guy who's coaching them now? Wait, that can't be right, can it?

Yup. Lindy Ruff returns to the franchise where he coached 15 seasons and finds a Sabres team that hasn't made the postseason cut since 2011. He also finds a team with two pillars on defense (Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power); a collection of young standout forwards in their top six; and a revamped bottom six that brings speed this team lacked under Don Granato. While he doesn't have Dominik Hasek or Ryan Miller between the pipes, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was strong last season and Devon Levi's underlying numbers showed promise.

Look, there is a mountainous amount of stuff that needs to go right for the Sabres to make the playoffs. It starts with Ruff getting a young roster to commit defensively in ways it hasn't before -- something he had success with for a time during his last stop in New Jersey. It requires good health and core players continuing on their growth trajectories. Most of all, it requires a spot opening up for them in the conference from the teams that qualified last season -- perhaps even two spots, if we assume the Devils are back in the playoff picture.

So let's call this an "educated prayer." Ultimately, I think enough breaks right for Buffalo for them to emerge from that pack of rebuilders in the Atlantic. The streak ends. The playoff tailgates in Buffalo begin."

For this particular team, the revamping of the lower lines is going to have a consequential impact not only on its effectiveness in its role but also will have a positive effect on the top two lines. Over the past few years, there's no question that the young players were going to be given an outsized role compared to most teams. Those inexperienced players now have enough experience to be more effective and still have more potential to tap into. Due to the players that the GM brought in this offseason (with the influence of Ruff) this roster is demonstrably better balanced. 

The critical issue that you note is whether our goaltending will consistently be at a level that regularly give us a chance to win every night. UPL showed in the second half of last season that he can play well enough for extended periods of time. (In fact, his league ranking was in the upper echelon.)

In general, I'm optimistic about our playoff prospects. That's really not a high bar for many teams but for us it is reasonable hope. It's really important that this team starts off well and remains in the playoff picture throughout the season. A slow start will be a crushing blow, especially for the exhausted fans. 

 

[Gatorman0519]

I can imagine a fast start but reality coming crashing in around mid season. Not sure this is a playoff team but we will finally make some progress to becoming one. 

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

I can imagine a fast start but reality coming crashing in around mid season. Not sure this is a playoff team but we will finally make some progress to becoming one. 

I was thinking the opposite, a rough start with them getting better as the season goes long:

-Tough first couple games against Jersey, new coach/new system, pretty big roster turnover in the bottom line(s) a somewhat disjointed camp (the 'main guys' will not have played an equal/talent squad at all through camp/preseason), trip to Europe, etc.

[msw2112]

Two things have to happen for the Sabres to make the playoffs:

1.  Buy into Ruff

2. Stay relatively healthy

They've been very close to the playoffs the last 2 seasons, and only missed by 1 point two years ago.  And that's with Granato's "no accountability" leadership.  With even a middling power play, and good goaltending in October, November, and December, last year's team would have made the playoffs.  Both of those things are within reach.  They have plenty of talent on the power play and I've got to think Ruff will use it better than Granato did last year.  As to the goaltending, no Comrie this year.  UPL appears to be for real and Levi has a lot more professional experience under his belt and should be better (and won't be relied on to be the savior). 

 

[B-U-F-F-A-L-O]

11 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well let's hope so, but there are so many maybes it's impossible to say. A lot of things have to go right for the Sabres and wrong for several of the other teams in the division. 

We've been touted as that team before and we always end up "a year away" year after year. 

Have we though?

I don’t know….Maybe in a lot of fans minds….

I really think this is the year. We actually have a real winning, HOF HC for the first time in ages. We are actually old enough as a team for the first time in ages. We actually have a complete team for the first time in ages. With four solid lines all knowing their roles and three stud pairs of D-men actually old enough to commit to the D. We have a unified team for the first time in ages. We actually have some depth for the first time in ages in Krebs, Gilbert and Bryson. And Rochester has more just about ready for the first time in ages in RYJO, Rosen, Kulich and Novikov….. We have an exciting goalie tandem for the first time in ages…. Looks good to me….

 

Go Sabres!

 

[Thorner]

Another in-depth analysis here: Sabres line at 88.5 points. Seems pretty fair 

 

[mjd1001]

58 minutes ago, Thorner said:

Another in-depth analysis here: Sabres line at 88.5 points. Seems pretty fair 

 

Buffalo at that level would seem to not be a bad prediction..but..

Boston at 86 points with as low as 77?  And that is with the model assuming Swayman plays, but end up playing less games than Korpisalo.

Also interesting the model for the Sabres only has UPL playing 41% of the games for the Sabres, and that 'assumes everyone is healthy'.

He rates players apparently by a 'synthetic goal' model (must be kinda like goals above replacement??) McLeod ends up being the Sabres best forward, with Tuch and Tage being slightly above average and it looks like both Peterk and Cozens are below average. Has Byram rated as a D-man deep into the negative territory.

I know its a computer simulation, and maybe uses some really really deep advanced stats, but a lot of that just doesn't seem right.

Edited September 30 by mjd1001

[Thorner]

46 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Buffalo at that level would seem to not be a bad prediction..but..

Boston at 86 points with as low as 77?  And that is with the model assuming Swayman plays, but end up playing less games than Korpisalo.

Also interesting the model for the Sabres only has UPL playing 41% of the games for the Sabres, and that 'assumes everyone is healthy'.

He rates players apparently by a 'synthetic goal' model (must be kinda like goals above replacement??) McLeod ends up being the Sabres best forward, with Tuch and Tage being slightly above average and it looks like both Peterk and Cozens are below average. Has Byram rated as a D-man deep into the negative territory.

I know its a computer simulation, and maybe uses some really really deep advanced stats, but a lot of that just doesn't seem right.

Ya I often feel with these models that there will necessarily always be a million nitpicks/errors along the way, but the formula in general produces reasonably accurate results in the macro over a large sample size. It’s a proven model - but not proven to *always* be right. Doesn’t make the model defective, just littered with defects in the name of the lion’s share of the data coming out fairly accurate.

As for the Sabres, we were always always going to be making the playoffs off a prediction like this: we’ll need to establish a reasonable track record before predicted for reasonable results. As it should be 

Edited September 30 by Thorner

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Two things have to happen for the Sabres to make the playoffs:

1.  Buy into Ruff

2. Stay relatively healthy

They've been very close to the playoffs the last 2 seasons, and only missed by 1 point two years ago.  And that's with Granato's "no accountability" leadership.  With even a middling power play, and good goaltending in October, November, and December, last year's team would have made the playoffs.  Both of those things are within reach.  They have plenty of talent on the power play and I've got to think Ruff will use it better than Granato did last year.  As to the goaltending, no Comrie this year.  UPL appears to be for real and Levi has a lot more professional experience under his belt and should be better (and won't be relied on to be the savior). 

 

Would say there is a 3rd item which is actually more necessary than your 2nd item (which is also important): get actual good goaltending.  If UPL plays like he did in January and February and Levi plays like he did after he got called back up for the final stretch then this team WILL make the playoffs unless they hit a '73-'74 Sabresesque level of injuries.  You mention it at the end of your post; but it is too important not for it to be a major focus this season and is a big reason why they upgraded Comrie to Reimer.  GTing is too important to the end results to leave it to just 2 guys when a single injury could derail either for a month or more.  And if either play like he did last preseason (UPL) or early last season (Levi) and the season is derailed anyhow.

They CAN'T count on 92 or 93 points being good enough to get it.  It could be; but it would be foolhardy to be expecting it.  They need to be shooting for 98-99 at a bare minimum and realistically should be gunning for higher than that.  99 will effectively guarantee they get in; only 1 team in the modern era ever reached 0.600 and failed to get it.  98 rounds to 0.600 (but is a smidge below it); 99 gets it done.

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Two things have to happen for the Sabres to make the playoffs:

1.  Buy into Ruff

2. Stay relatively healthy

They've been very close to the playoffs the last 2 seasons, and only missed by 1 point two years ago.  And that's with Granato's "no accountability" leadership.  With even a middling power play, and good goaltending in October, November, and December, last year's team would have made the playoffs.  Both of those things are within reach.  They have plenty of talent on the power play and I've got to think Ruff will use it better than Granato did last year.  As to the goaltending, no Comrie this year.  UPL appears to be for real and Levi has a lot more professional experience under his belt and should be better (and won't be relied on to be the savior). 

 

2 isn’t an option, it never is. 

To make the playoffs you succeed in spite of injuries not because you avoided them 

[msw2112]

17 minutes ago, Thorner said:

2 isn’t an option, it never is. 

To make the playoffs you succeed in spite of injuries not because you avoided them 

I'm saying that for THIS team, they need to stay healthy to make the playoffs.  I don't think the Sabres have the organizational depth to overcome significant injuries.  A team like Colorado or Tampa might be able to do that, but not this Sabres team.  I don't think there are enough veteran players of the kind to "carry the team on their back" and while there's a lot of talent in the pipeline, but they're kids that are not physically and mentally ready for the NHL.  I'm not saying that staying healthy is an option they can elect, it's not, so I agree with you 100% on that.  It's mostly luck and to an extent training (training might help prevent frequent soft-tissue injuries, but can't prevent broken broken bones from a slash or crash into the boards).  If they have good luck on injuries and buy what Lindy is selling (consistent effort, no days off, attention to detail), I believe they make the playoffs.

Edited September 30 by msw2112

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

I'm saying that for THIS team, they need to stay healthy to make the playoffs.  I don't think the Sabres have the organizational depth to overcome significant injuries.  A team like Colorado or Tampa might be able to do that, but not this Sabres team.  I don't think there are enough veteran players of the kind to "carry the team on their back" and while there's a lot of talent in the pipeline, but they're kids that are not physically and mentally ready for the NHL.  I'm not saying that staying healthy is an option they can elect, it's not, so I agree with you 100% on that.  It's mostly luck and to an extent training (training might help prevent frequent soft-tissue injuries, but can't prevent broken broken bones from a slash or crash into the boards).  If they have good luck on injuries and buy what Lindy is selling (consistent effort, no days off, attention to detail), I believe they make the playoffs.

I get this in terms of the “Matthews can carry the Leafs to the playoffs in matter who is in the bottom 6” sense.

But have you seen the bottom 6 for Toronto, Boston or Tampa? These are not deep teams in the sense of their 2nd and 3rd layers.

If Kucherov, Pastrnak or Matthews goes down for any length of time it will hurt their teams more than the Sabres losing Thompson.

[PerreaultForever]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I get this in terms of the “Matthews can carry the Leafs to the playoffs in matter who is in the bottom 6” sense.

But have you seen the bottom 6 for Toronto, Boston or Tampa? These are not deep teams in the sense of their 2nd and 3rd layers.

If Kucherov, Pastrnak or Matthews goes down for any length of time it will hurt their teams more than the Sabres losing Thompson.

I'm not sure why you think this. The teams are now structured in the same way, as are most NHL teams and that's how the cap works. If Thompson doesn't score at least 30 this year we are not making the playoffs. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, B-U-F-F-A-L-O said:

Have we though?

I don’t know….Maybe in a lot of fans minds….

I really think this is the year. We actually have a real winning, HOF HC for the first time in ages. We are actually old enough as a team for the first time in ages. We actually have a complete team for the first time in ages. With four solid lines all knowing their roles and three stud pairs of D-men actually old enough to commit to the D. We have a unified team for the first time in ages. We actually have some depth for the first time in ages in Krebs, Gilbert and Bryson. And Rochester has more just about ready for the first time in ages in RYJO, Rosen, Kulich and Novikov….. We have an exciting goalie tandem for the first time in ages…. Looks good to me….

 

Go Sabres!

 

Well I won't get into the over valuing of prospects but just to be devil's advocate (and I just realized there's an unintentional bit of comedy there) Ruff was fired in New Jersey when a team expected to be back in the playoffs fell apart. Now everyone is saying "goaltending" so what if UPL gets inconsistent again and Levi isn't ready and Reimer's an old has been? Then we don't have goaltending either and could be just as bad or worse. 

That's just saying there are a lot of variables and questions in play and how this shakes out is impossible to predict right now. Hope is what we can have. 

[msw2112]

Obviously, Florida has a great team, as they just won the Stanley Cup, but I see a guy like Matthew Tkachuk being able to put a team on his back and will it to victory.  Not only does he have offensive talent, but he has grit, determination, and leadership skills.  The guy would put his shoulder through a brick wall to win and the rest of the guys would follow along.  (The Sabres once had a player drive a truck into a brick wall at Tim Horton's, but I digress.)  I'd see Tkachuk having the quality more than Matthews, but your point is taken.  A prolific scorer like Matthews can make up for the loss of other scorers.  Gabriel Landeskog may be a better all around player than anyone the Sabres have and was his team's captain, but guys like McKinnon and Makar kept Colorado in the mix even when Landeskog was out for an entire season.  I just don't see anyone on the Sabres able to do that.  Dahlin would be the closest they have (very talented, can score goals, has ability at both ends, plays with grit and determination), but he's not quite to that level of veteran leadership.  Perhaps he'll take the next step with Ruff behind the bench, another year of seasoning, and the C on his chest.

I can't speak a lot to the bottom 6 of Toronto, Boston, or even Tampa, but I think that Tampa has done reasonably well with injuries to guys like Stamkos, Kucherov and others in recent seasons because they have other guys who have stepped up.  They have a lot of really good players on the roster (Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman, Vasilevskiy, Hagel, etc.) so that if one or two of them are out, the others can step up.  Their top guys are aging and their window may be closing, but the point remains the same (and they made the playoffs last year).  I don't think the Sabres have enough of those players on the current roster.  I hope a) that we don't have to find out; and b) that if we do have to find out, that I'm proven wrong.

Edited September 30 by msw2112

[dudacek]

30 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm not sure why you think this. The teams are now structured in the same way, as are most NHL teams and that's how the cap works. If Thompson doesn't score at least 30 this year we are not making the playoffs. 

To address your confusion, I expect the Sabres mid-roster forwards to be better than those of the 4 traditional playoff teams

The Sabres top 3 forwards make $18M combined. Zach Benson, Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka are on entry level contracts.

To answer your point Mathews and Nylander make more combined than the sabres entire top 6.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

To address your confusion, I expect the Sabres mid-roster forwards to be better than those of the 4 traditional playoff teams

The Sabres top 3 forwards make $18M combined. Zach Benson, Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka are on entry level contracts.

To answer your point Mathews and Nylander make more combined than the sabres entire top 6.

Well I wouldn't disagree with that. There's a window of opportunity (mostly due to entry level deals) and if we were actually spending the money we might be there but we still have unused cap space. All those teams spend to the cap. 

idk, if the Cozens Benson Quinn line comes together and is a good 2nd line then we might be good, but it's unproven for now. Have to see what it looks like in actual games. I doubt Zucker-McLeod-Greenway scares many teams at all. 

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well I wouldn't disagree with that. There's a window of opportunity (mostly due to entry level deals) and if we were actually spending the money we might be there but we still have unused cap space. All those teams spend to the cap. 

idk, if the Cozens Benson Quinn line comes together and is a good 2nd line then we might be good, but it's unproven for now. Have to see what it looks like in actual games. I doubt Zucker-McLeod-Greenway scares many teams at all. 

We could be maximizing those deals right now, ya 

Alas 

We’d rather wait until none of them are cheap 

[dudacek]

Just now, PerreaultForever said:

Well I wouldn't disagree with that. There's a window of opportunity (mostly due to entry level deals) and if we were actually spending the money we might be there but we still have unused cap space. All those teams spend to the cap. 

idk, if the Cozens Benson Quinn line comes together and is a good 2nd line then we might be good, but it's unproven for now. Have to see what it looks like in actual games. I doubt Zucker-McLeod-Greenway scares many teams at all. 

And Frederic-Poitras-Brazeau, Robertson-Jarnkrok-McMann, and Girgensons-Paul-Atkinson do?

[PerreaultForever]

3 minutes ago, Thorner said:

We could be maximizing those deals right now, ya 

Alas 

We’d rather wait until none of them are cheap 

This is a potential problem with all those high end picks. If they all get there they will all want to be paid and some of them will have to be moved. Cap goes up though so no need to sweat this yet. 

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

And Frederic-Poitras-Brazeau, Robertson-Jarnkrok-McMann, and Girgensons-Paul-Atkinson do?

Is Girgs 3rd line? That is thinner than they used to be if that's the case. 

[Thorner]

On 6/5/2024 at 3:01 PM, Thorner said:

Ya I mean there’s nothing wrong with aiming for Greenaway to be “too good” for the 4th line if that’s the goal we can achieve, when our 1 and 2 c tallied 51 points each last year on average between the 2 of them. There’s assuredly ground we’ll need to make up elsewhere. 

If the top 6 is set, it’s not set amongst the best in the league. Gaining advantage down the forward ranks is a place to make it up 

I spoke earlier in the summer though pre draft and FA and offseason moves about gaining an advantage on other teams where we can. The theory of rebooting the bottom 6 makes sense as a secondary play in theory. If we can be better than other others from guys 7 to 12, it’s still going to go a ways when the goal is merely mediocre ie 16/32

no stone unturned 

11 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well I wouldn't disagree with that. There's a window of opportunity (mostly due to entry level deals) and if we were actually spending the money we might be there but we still have unused cap space. All those teams spend to the cap. 

idk, if the Cozens Benson Quinn line comes together and is a good 2nd line then we might be good, but it's unproven for now. Have to see what it looks like in actual games. I doubt Zucker-McLeod-Greenway scares many teams at all. 

 

Edited October 1 by Thorner