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Is Tage Thompson a top 15 center in the NHL?


LGR4GM

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15 minutes ago, LTS said:

Last season stats:

162nd in FOW%.  Of the top 162, there were 18 players in the top 162 that had 100 face-offs or less.  Even if you exclude them, Tage is just inside the 1op 150 players in FOW%

  • 31st in goals
  • 70th in assists
  • 52nd in total points
  • 95th in +/-
  • 44th in TOI/GP.

What metrics is anyone looking at that says Tage Thompson is worth this consideration?

He is tied for 1st in height at 6'6, with Nick Bjugstad, Michael Rasmussen, and Aliaksei Protas though!

 

If your smoking gun is face wins, idk what to tell you. That is just such a terrible metric to use as some sort of "gotcha" when looking at NHL centers. It would be like looking at Zach Benson and using penalty minutes against. 

Also, stop using +/- for any comparison outside of a team. It is useless once you leave your own team for anything like this. 

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50 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Athletic’s annual ranking just came out today.

He was ranked at the same level as Hedman as the 8th/9th best defenceman and between the 32 and 39th best player overall - they rank in tiers using statistical analysis then vetting that through real NHL executives.

Dahlin fell out of Tier 2 for two primary reasons: He didn’t produce as much offensively as he did in 2022-23 (in terms of both points total and overall impact) and the Sabres regressed as a team.

Still, there’s plenty of reason to think a return to franchise-player status is still in the cards for the 24-year-old, starting with the fact he had a second consecutive season of decent defensive play. That’s exactly what some of his doubters wanted to see, and he delivered.

”I do (think he can defend at an elite level),” one coach said. ”I hear great things about him as a competitor. He can defend as well as all those (Tier 2) guys.”

If he shows the full picture for a full season — and some of that hinges on his teammates — he’ll regain his forward momentum. He’s got top-five D-man potential.

On topic, Tage ranked in the 16 to 20 range for centres - and between 50 and 62 overall.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5750903/2024/09/24/nhl-best-players-list-2024-2025-season/

Other Sabres to make the list of the NHL’s 150 best players were Tuch and local whipping boys Power and Cozens.

So basically the same at the NHL Network.  The NHL Network also had Dahlin as the 40th best player in the NHL.

None of this really matters very much.  Produce more points and you go up, produce less you go down.  Dahlin had 73 points and he was 7th on the list before 23/24.  Now he fell to the 50's and he is down to 11th. 

If Dahlin gets back to 70 pts and Tage to 80+, the chances of this team making the playoffs go up dramatically.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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53 minutes ago, LTS said:

Last season stats:

162nd in FOW%.  Of the top 162, there were 18 players in the top 162 that had 100 face-offs or less.  Even if you exclude them, Tage is just inside the 1op 150 players in FOW%

  • 31st in goals
  • 70th in assists
  • 52nd in total points
  • 95th in +/-
  • 44th in TOI/GP.

What metrics is anyone looking at that says Tage Thompson is worth this consideration?

He is tied for 1st in height at 6'6, with Nick Bjugstad, Michael Rasmussen, and Aliaksei Protas though!

 

Because you're looking at last year's stats only.

I, among a few other posters on this board, think last year was the anomaly year due to an injury he sustained early in the year. 

He's been a center for three seasons. Two of those three seasons. He didn't have an injury... I am willing to use those seasons as the baseline. 

The reason I believe this is look at last year, as the season went on and he he got farther away from the injury, He got better and better. 

I believe his shooting percentage was 15% 2 years ago. 15.9% the year after that. It went down dramatically when he got hurt, but by the last two months of last year he was over 16%. 

In terms of offensive production... I can't help but to think putting those things together. He's a 15 to 16% shooter... And he's going to get you 300 shots or more over 82 games which is close to what he's done since turning into a center. 

And as far as being a complete player, I always subscribe to the fact that his size makes him a good defender. Not because he hits people, but he takes up so much ice that sometimes we don't see it, but passes aren't made and plays aren't made by the other team simply because he takes away those lanes. We do hardly see him out of position on goals scored against the savers, and Lindy Ruff just made a comment this morning or last night saying how he's one of the best positioned players on the ice without the puck.

Put all those things together... And that's the reason why myself, and a few others on this board, think he might be the best player on this team. If not, certainly in the top three.

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The Athletic pointed out that the reason Tage wasn't higher last year was because he wasn't good defensively.

What was interesting is that they said his defensive numbers went up dramatically last year.

So they now need to see him maintain that while his scoring bounces back.

Edited by dudacek
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5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He was 7th on their list 23/24 & now 11th for 24/25.

Here is the current list: top 10 - Makar, Q Hughes, Hedman, Josi, Heiskanen, Forsling, McAvoy, Fox, Bouchard, and Toews.  Next 10 - Dahlin, Morrissey, Slavin, Werenski, Dobson, Ekholm, Doughty, Hanifin, Halilton & Seider.  Who are you kicking out of the top 10?  Forsling? Bouchard? He has his breakout with 80 points last season.   

I’d have Makar, Hughes, Hedman, Josi, Fox ahead. Dahlin probably about 6. Morrissey is terrible at actual defence, him behind ranked beside Dahlin is a huge tell their list is wonky 

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14 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

He'd be in the conversation for me.  Based on last nights preseason game, no, he didn't impress me much. But based on the player I think he is, and how I think he is going to perform this coming season, yes.

When I look at the best players at any position, the issue is its not linear.  The Best 1-3 guys at any position usually are easy to see how much better they are then guys 4-7. Guys 4-7 are a little bit better than the next group. But by the time you get to guys 10-20...the 10th best guy is really, really close to the 10 guys after them. meaning, put Tage in a group of Centers, I would have a hard time being convinced he isn't as good as the 10th best guy in the league...or as 'bad' as the 25th best.

 

13 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The NHL Network had him outside of the top 20 on their annual best centers list.  Mike Johnson did say that Tage was the one player who could vault up the list with a bounce back season.

They also had Dahlin as the 11 best D in the NHL.  

These actually sound about right.

These kind of go together. I could make 15 centers is take over Tage based on his body of work. But I also think he has the potential to move into that group. He just hasn’t done it enough. (I know, injuries)

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19 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

If your smoking gun is face wins, idk what to tell you. That is just such a terrible metric to use as some sort of "gotcha" when looking at NHL centers. It would be like looking at Zach Benson and using penalty minutes against. 

Also, stop using +/- for any comparison outside of a team. It is useless once you leave your own team for anything like this. 

There's no "gotcha" here.  My initial post asked, "What metrics do you define a CENTER by?".  In my initial post I noted that relative to his OWN TEAM Thompson was not the top C.  He was behind Krebs and Mitts in +/- tied with Girgensons,and Kulich at -1. 

He was 5th in FOW% on his own team.  I also called out the win % in specific situations as well. He was not at the top.

If you are simply evaluating by metrics that are attributable to any FORWARD then you aren't rating him as a CENTER, but as a FORWARD. Even then, he's not top 15.

Since you want to dismiss what I've done, pray tell, what metrics would you like to use to define a CENTER so we can pull them and see where TNT ranks?  You know a ton about analytics, so I'm looking forward to the insight.

19 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Because you're looking at last year's stats only.

I, among a few other posters on this board, think last year was the anomaly year due to an injury he sustained early in the year. 

He's been a center for three seasons. Two of those three seasons. He didn't have an injury... I am willing to use those seasons as the baseline. 

The reason I believe this is look at last year, as the season went on and he he got farther away from the injury, He got better and better. 

I believe his shooting percentage was 15% 2 years ago. 15.9% the year after that. It went down dramatically when he got hurt, but by the last two months of last year he was over 16%. 

In terms of offensive production... I can't help but to think putting those things together. He's a 15 to 16% shooter... And he's going to get you 300 shots or more over 82 games which is close to what he's done since turning into a center. 

And as far as being a complete player, I always subscribe to the fact that his size makes him a good defender. Not because he hits people, but he takes up so much ice that sometimes we don't see it, but passes aren't made and plays aren't made by the other team simply because he takes away those lanes. We do hardly see him out of position on goals scored against the savers, and Lindy Ruff just made a comment this morning or last night saying how he's one of the best positioned players on the ice without the puck.

Put all those things together... And that's the reason why myself, and a few others on this board, think he might be the best player on this team. If not, certainly in the top three.

Yes, I could go back further but I see no need.  You are referring to shooting percentage, is that a CENTER stat or a PLAYER stat? You could say his shooting percentage is higher as a CENTER than WING, but that doesn't make him a TOP 15 CENTER in the league, it just makes his production better at CENTER than WING.

As for him being a complete player, great.  What specific CENTER metric are you referring to?  Is he a more complete player than many of the names on the list I would put above him?

Everyone keeps telling me about what kind of PLAYER Thompson is... once again, look at the topic, read the question.... "Is Tage Thompson a top 15 center in the NHL?"

That's the question I keep answering.  Why everyone else seems to be defending Thompson as a good player is beyond me, I acknowledged that straight away. I acknowledged he's a pretty good forward who has shown he can be score at a high rate.  It does not mean he is a good center.

So, all I am asking everyone refuting things is to tell us why "Is Tage Thompson a top 15 center in the NHL?"

 

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1 hour ago, LTS said:

There's no "gotcha" here.  My initial post asked, "What metrics do you define a CENTER by?".  In my initial post I noted that relative to his OWN TEAM Thompson was not the top C.  He was behind Krebs and Mitts in +/- tied with Girgensons,and Kulich at -1. 

He was 5th in FOW% on his own team.  I also called out the win % in specific situations as well. He was not at the top.

If you are simply evaluating by metrics that are attributable to any FORWARD then you aren't rating him as a CENTER, but as a FORWARD. Even then, he's not top 15.

Since you want to dismiss what I've done, pray tell, what metrics would you like to use to define a CENTER so we can pull them and see where TNT ranks?  You know a ton about analytics, so I'm looking forward to the insight.

Yes, I could go back further but I see no need.  You are referring to shooting percentage, is that a CENTER stat or a PLAYER stat? You could say his shooting percentage is higher as a CENTER than WING, but that doesn't make him a TOP 15 CENTER in the league, it just makes his production better at CENTER than WING.

As for him being a complete player, great.  What specific CENTER metric are you referring to?  Is he a more complete player than many of the names on the list I would put above him?

Everyone keeps telling me about what kind of PLAYER Thompson is... once again, look at the topic, read the question.... "Is Tage Thompson a top 15 center in the NHL?"

That's the question I keep answering.  Why everyone else seems to be defending Thompson as a good player is beyond me, I acknowledged that straight away. I acknowledged he's a pretty good forward who has shown he can be score at a high rate.  It does not mean he is a good center.

So, all I am asking everyone refuting things is to tell us why "Is Tage Thompson a top 15 center in the NHL?"

 

Ok, let me break down my opinion:

-Per my other post, I think he 'is', and 'will be' a 40-50 goal scorer. (and in my previous post I used shooting percentage as the reason why).  So I'm not comparing shooting percentage to other centers or other positions. Simply saying I think his offensive production is in the 40-50 goal area at least,  over a full 82 game season.

-Defense. I think his size makes him average-to-above average. You don't need to see hits, you don't need to see how much time he has with the puck. I notice 3 things: 1.)  He seemed very good at penalty killing, his size and reach allows him to stay in the same spot and cover a lot of ground without chasing. He rarely is out of position because he doesn't need to be. Not all 'advanced' stats or all metrics will show that. 2.) I used the analogy with him and Cozens, but because of his size that he demonstrates during PK, he is very good at playing "zone" defense.  Opposing players may simply not make a pass, not attempt to sqeeze into a spot because they know there is less room with him out there.  To me that is common sense with any guy who is as big/tall as he is that has at least decent mobility. Not only is it common sense, but you can SEE it when you watch him play without the puck. Again, Lindy the other day went out of his way to say how good Thompson has been playing 'without the puck'.

Put the 2 together...a player who I think (for the above reasons) is a 40-50+ goals scorer...and is actually GOOD defensively (in ways that cannot always be measured, there are less metrics to measure a 'negative' that is a positive) and that is why I put him in the category of a top 15 center in the league.

If someone can/will/does score 40-50 goals in a full season, and their defensive game is 'pretty good'. I consider that a top 15 center (as I said in a previous post, he is probably in the 8-20 range but that can be 'top 15' because there isn't much of a difference in IMO between the 8th best and the 20th best.

That is my opinion. That is why I answered yes he is.  I'm not sure how else I can explain that (I have explained all of the above in previous posts) other than you just wanting to disagree with me.

 

Edited by mjd1001
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1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, let me break down my opinion:

-Per my other post, I think he 'is', and 'will be' a 40-50 goal scorer. (and in my previous post I used shooting percentage as the reason why).  So I'm not comparing shooting percentage to other centers or other positions. Simply saying I think his offensive production is in the 40-50 goal area at least,  over a full 82 game season.

-Defense. I think his size makes him average-to-above average. You don't need to see hits, you don't need to see how much time he has with the puck. I notice 3 things: 1.)  He seemed very good at penalty killing, his size and reach allows him to stay in the same spot and cover a lot of ground without chasing. He rarely is out of position because he doesn't need to be. Not all 'advanced' stats or all metrics will show that. 2.) I used the analogy with him and Cozens, but because of his size that he demonstrates during PK, he is very good at playing "zone" defense.  Opposing players may simply not make a pass, not attempt to sqeeze into a spot because they know there is less room with him out there.  To me that is common sense with any guy who is as big/tall as he is that has at least decent mobility. Not only is it common sense, but you can SEE it when you watch him play without the puck. Again, Lindy the other day went out of his way to say how good Thompson has been playing 'without the puck'.

Put the 2 together...a player who I think (for the above reasons) is a 40-50+ goals scorer...and is actually GOOD defensively (in ways that cannot always be measured, there are less metrics to measure a 'negative' that is a positive) and that is why I put him in the category of a top 15 center in the league.

If someone can/will/does score 40-50 goals in a full season, and their defensive game is 'pretty good'. I consider that a top 15 center (as I said in a previous post, he is probably in the 8-20 range but that can be 'top 15' because there isn't much of a difference in IMO between the 8th best and the 20th best.

That is my opinion. That is why I answered yes he is.  I'm not sure how else I can explain that (I have explained all of the above in previous posts) other than you just wanting to disagree with me.

 

I am not being argumentative just for the hell of it.I

t is your opinion. Everyone can have one. Everyone can choose how much merit they want to give the opinion and ultimately disagree.  So be it. My goal was to determine what made someone an effective center first and foremost.  Secondary was an attempt to quantify how to achieve a top 15 ranking on something other than opinion.  Any discussion based on pure opinion generally ends up with everyone being right.. unless someone wants to change their mind.  That's okay, that's the point of subjectivity.  I was attempting to measure of objectivity.

Another way to look at it is to compile a list of centers and then determine if there are 15 of them you would put on your team before Thompson. So I'll attempt that:

MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews, Draisaitl, Crosby, Point, Stamkos, Barkov, Hughes, Kopitar, Eichel (despite my personal feelings), Johnston, Eriksson Ek, Bedard, Kyrou are all centers I would consider taking over Thompson. Others in consideration: Larkin, ROR, Jarvis, Aho, Suzuki, Pettersson.

I have nothing against Thompson, I just think the one's I have listed I have more faith in.  Could be the inconsistency of Buffalo versus other teams and I want to be wrong.

54 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Can't read it as I don't have a NYT subscription.

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1 minute ago, LTS said:

I am not being argumentative just for the hell of it.I

t is your opinion. Everyone can have one. Everyone can choose how much merit they want to give the opinion and ultimately disagree.  So be it. My goal was to determine what made someone an effective center first and foremost.  Secondary was an attempt to quantify how to achieve a top 15 ranking on something other than opinion.  Any discussion based on pure opinion generally ends up with everyone being right.. unless someone wants to change their mind.  That's okay, that's the point of subjectivity.  I was attempting to measure of objectivity.

Another way to look at it is to compile a list of centers and then determine if there are 15 of them you would put on your team before Thompson. So I'll attempt that:

MacKinnon, McDavid, Matthews, Draisaitl, Crosby, Point, Stamkos, Barkov, Hughes, Kopitar, Eichel (despite my personal feelings), Johnston, Eriksson Ek, Bedard, Kyrou are all centers I would consider taking over Thompson. Others in consideration: Larkin, ROR, Jarvis, Aho, Suzuki, Pettersson.

I have nothing against Thompson, I just think the one's I have listed I have more faith in.  Could be the inconsistency of Buffalo versus other teams and I want to be wrong.

Can't read it as I don't have a NYT subscription.

I get your point.

My view on Thompson is based on the assumption that he puts in 40-50+ for the Sabres this year.  If he isn't hurt and he is falling painfully short of that...than my opinion of him as a top 10 center will be no more.

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2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

The Athletic's chart more or less matches my one-game/one-series same-lineups vs. comparison. I take every Tier 1 and most Tier 2 players ahead of TNT (not necessarily Petterson). Tier 3, I take Hintz and Larkin for their all-around game, and Bedard will blow past all these guys this season and next.

TNT is really in the same boat as the JT Miller, Stutzle, Thomas group. 

So... top 15, sure. But he's in a squishy 13-17 range for me.

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Interesting that the Athletic Article has us as being one of 10 teams with two centres in the top 37. No team has 3. 

I still wish Adams and Pegula would have the courage and commitment to make one additional move (Kadri, Andersson, Ehlers) and I still think our core is too young to expect they will collectively, if not some as individuals, take the step forward we need to be a playoff team. But we should be tantalizingly close. 

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3 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Interesting that the Athletic Article has us as being one of 10 teams with two centres in the top 37. No team has 3. 

I still wish Adams and Pegula would have the courage and commitment to make one additional move (Kadri, Andersson, Ehlers) and I still think our core is too young to expect they will collectively, if not some as individuals, take the step forward we need to be a playoff team. But we should be tantalizingly close. 

I no longer agree with the 'too young' part for the core:

-Tuch is 28, this is his 9th NHL season, 450+ games played. 4 years playoff experience, 66 games played in the playoffs.

-Thompson turns 27 next month, going into his 8th NHL season, 370+ games played

-Cozens turning 24 later this season, going into his 5th NHL season, 280 games played

-Dahlin 24 (25 by end of season), going into his 6th season, 430+ games played (and a LOT of minutes in those games)

-Byram is 23, 6th nhl season this year, 160+ games played, plus 2 playoffs runs, 1 cup, and several playoff rounds

-Even the 'younger' core has Quinn (4th season, although partial and he is 23), Peterka (turning 23 this year, over 160 games played), Jokiharju (25, 6th season, 350 games played) and Samuelsson (turning 25 this season, 5th year with the team)...its not like they are raw rookies anymore.

 

Sure, when your Defensemen average 22 years old and you have a ton of forwards 19-22 its an issue. But that isn't the case anymore. Statistically there have been a lot of studies that forwards hit their peak in production (and for advanced stat people, wins above replacement) at ages 25-28...that is their peak. D-men tend to peak a little later, but approach that peak also by age 24-26.

You brought in Zucker. He's not a 'core' piece, but I don't think he's totally washed up either. 32 years old. 700 games played. 9 different seasons in the playoffs. Over the last 3 seasons still scoring at a 23 goal per 82 game pace. I don't think you need to bring in more veterans at this point.

Lafferty, Kabel, and McLeod aren't 'core' pieces, but they do look like they might be good in their roles, they ARE going to play a lot, and they all have several playoff runs in their past (some deep runs to the cup final)

At this point the team/core doesn't need to get older or more experienced, they simply need to get better/reach their potential.  They are at the age they should be.

Edited by mjd1001
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23 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

That both Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are so highly regarded (and I agree with that) is the reason I think New Jersey has a shot at being the best in the conference, and the presidents trophy this year, IF they can stay somewhat healthy.

Its also the reason I hate the Sabres are playing them the first 2 games of the year. The Sabres could be a playoff team, could be vastly improved, but they might also look really bad starting the season 0-2 because they have to play the Devils in Europe 2 times.

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2 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

That both Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are so highly regarded (and I agree with that) is the reason I think New Jersey has a shot at being the best in the conference, and the presidents trophy this year, IF they can stay somewhat healthy.

Its also the reason I hate the Sabres are playing them the first 2 games of the year. The Sabres could be a playoff team, could be vastly improved, but they might also look really bad starting the season 0-2 because they have to play the Devils in Europe 2 times.

It’s not who you play but when you play them. Catching them early while we’ve been rostering basically our full nhl team most preseason may help.

Edited by Thorner
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2 minutes ago, Thorner said:

It’s not who you play but when you play them. Catching them early while we’ve been rostering basically our full nhl team most preseason may help.

I guess thats true. First, you get the games out of the way, 2nd as you said they are all playing together.

3rd, ALREADY the devils blue line is turning into a mash unit.

It looks like Luke Hughes won't play for a few more weeks, so he's out.  Brett Pesce is the Devils big addition to the blue line this year, I read a few days ago he is still recovering from his broken leg and hasn't taken part in camp yet, and he's 50-50 whether he plays against the Sabres to open the season. With Hughes injured, Santeri Hatakka was thought to step up into the bottom pairing, but he got hurt in their preseason game against montreal and there hasn't been an update to his status yet.

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1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

I guess thats true. First, you get the games out of the way, 2nd as you said they are all playing together.

3rd, ALREADY the devils blue line is turning into a mash unit.

It looks like Luke Hughes won't play for a few more weeks, so he's out.  Brett Pesce is the Devils big addition to the blue line this year, I read a few days ago he is still recovering from his broken leg and hasn't taken part in camp yet, and he's 50-50 whether he plays against the Sabres to open the season. With Hughes injured, Santeri Hatakka was thought to step up into the bottom pairing, but he got hurt in their preseason game against montreal and there hasn't been an update to his status yet.

Hockey’ll be played. We shall see how it goes 

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1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

-Even the 'younger' core has Quinn (4th season, although partial and he is 23), Peterka (turning 23 this year, over 160 games played), Jokiharju (25, 6th season, 350 games played) and Samuelsson (turning 25 this season, 5th year with the team)...its not like they are raw rookies anymore.

To nitpick slightly, this is Jack Quinn's 3rd NHL season starting just now. You can't count playing 2 as a season. I also don't think you should say "4th season" for any guys that are starting their 4th (or whatever number) when this season is yet to be played. 

The Sabres are very young and have less experience in games played at the NHL level than most if not all other teams. We'll just wait and see how they handle it. 

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45 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

That both Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are so highly regarded (and I agree with that) is the reason I think New Jersey has a shot at being the best in the conference, and the presidents trophy this year, IF they can stay somewhat healthy.

Its also the reason I hate the Sabres are playing them the first 2 games of the year. The Sabres could be a playoff team, could be vastly improved, but they might also look really bad starting the season 0-2 because they have to play the Devils in Europe 2 times.

Win the games you play. 

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47 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

That both Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are so highly regarded (and I agree with that) is the reason I think New Jersey has a shot at being the best in the conference, and the presidents trophy this year, IF they can stay somewhat healthy.

Its also the reason I hate the Sabres are playing them the first 2 games of the year. The Sabres could be a playoff team, could be vastly improved, but they might also look really bad starting the season 0-2 because they have to play the Devils in Europe 2 times.

It's a high risk, high reward start to the season.  

Of course, on the flip side, they most likely get a 1 game look at Levi in a league game before deciding on whether to keep him up (which seems to be the plan) or keep Reimer up and not risk losing him via waivers.

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Tage has started slow in each of the past 3 years. Be nice if that changes.

He’s looked very..self-possessed? ..in the preseason. Controlled, business-like and capable.

I’ve made no secret of the fact I think this guy is a pro - a shut-up-and-get-it-done son of an old school minor-league player turned coach, with a proven history of over-coming adversity. The tools are obvious.

I think he’s going to bounce back quite nicely.

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