Is Tage Thompson a top 15 center in the NHL?

[dudacek]

It’s weird given their relative physical stature and style, but I think Briere and Thompson are very good comparables:

Not only in terms of how each kinda slow-cooked their way to excellence, but also in terms of production relative to age, and how they impact the game.

 

Edited September 20 by dudacek

[Taro T]

41 minutes ago, Thorner said:

You’d be surprised 

No, not really.

Not saying he was Skinner, but he absolutely wasn't Drury and he benefitted greatly from primarily having Hecht and Dumont as his wingers.

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, Taro T said:

No, not really.

Not saying he was Skinner, but he absolutely wasn't Drury and he benefitted greatly from primarily having Hecht and Dumont as his wingers.

I just thought it sounded funny tbh 

[DarthEbriate]

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

As long as he plays with a guy who makes up some of his shortcomings I couldn’t care less how he puts up points. 

If Thompson put up 70 goals and 30 assists would that bother you?

And herein lies the rub for me.

If Quinn ends up paired with TNT, I think that could maximize Thompson's goal-scoring. But if Benson-Cozens-Quinn gels and stays together, I'm guessing that will soon be what we consider our best line. (Quinn's line is going to become our top line, health permitting.)

[7+6=13]

11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He is actually 8th.  

He is also 40th in assists and 22nd in total points.  

 

22nd doesn't put him in the top 30?  You hate everything Sabres and you're looking foolish.

[Sabres73]

I think he has a big comeback year this year and will no doubt be seen as top 15 by seasons end. He has the talent to do it.

[LTS]

5 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

As long as he plays with a guy who makes up some of his shortcomings I couldn’t care less how he puts up points. 

If Thompson put up 70 goals and 30 assists would that bother you?

 

Ummm, no?  but the question is whether he's a top 15 center, not a top 15 point getter. So, as a C, and as I evaluated his skill as C, not an offensive player, then he's not good.  Nothing i said about TNT's rankings were my opinions, those were facts taken from the NHL.com stats page.  I said he was a good offensive player, but he is NOT a good C, if judged by traditional C criteria.

Re-read the assignment?

[sabremike]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

No!  He probably isn’t even in the top 30.   He  was 45th in pts per game by centers last year who played at least 50 games and 31st in total goals scored.  
 

 

[B-U-F-F-A-L-O]

Yes.

 

And he is absolutely going to remove all doubt this year. Getting JJP on his line will send JJP - TNT - Tuch over the top and will definitely be a top 15 line as well.  
Fans might like the #2 line more this year but it will be the #1 line taking the pressure off the #2 line….

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/sports/sabres/thompson-thinks-last-year-was-well-below-his-standards
 

Thompson - 

Quote

I’ve already set a standard that is better than what I did last year, so anything short of that is just not good enough

All Sabres fans agree that last year wasn’t good enough.  

[dudacek]

Setting aside the top 15 arguments, I will be very surprised  if Tage isn’t more productive this year.

I think @mjd1001 put together a pretty compelling statistical argument about how the hand injury affected his shooting percentage and the resulting dip in production.

His scoring trend over the year - putting up a point per game over the final third of the season - supported that as well.

Not sure if it’s chicken or egg, (probably both), but a good chunk of any statistical improvement will be tied to the success of the Sabres power play.

He had 18 fewer points (11 of them goals) on the PP last year than the year before.

[Stoner]

Why do we do this as Sabres fans?

I think we're desperate.

Just let it play out a little. 

Dahlin has to be a Norris winner. 

Miller had to be elite.

In the words of the late great SDS... stop fetching.

[Drag0nDan]

On 9/21/2024 at 10:30 AM, dudacek said:

Setting aside the top 15 arguments, I will be very surprised  if Tage isn’t more productive this year.

I think @mjd1001 put together a pretty compelling statistical argument about how the hand injury affected his shooting percentage and the resulting dip in production.

His scoring trend over the year - putting up a point per game over the final third of the season - supported that as well.

Not sure if it’s chicken or egg, (probably both), but a good chunk of any statistical improvement will be tied to the success of the Sabres power play.

He had 18 fewer points (11 of them goals) on the PP last year than the year before.

Yeah, blocking a shot on a PK IIRC which just seems like not the best use of his abilities.  

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, Drag0nDan said:

Yeah, blocking a shot on a PK IIRC which just seems like not the best use of his abilities.  

I thought Thompson did pretty good on the PK. When he was paired with Greenway out there, I thought they were excellent as the 2 forwards. But, as you said, he's your #1 scorer, don't put him out there where he can/will be taking shots into himself. 

[Mango]

On 9/20/2024 at 11:48 AM, mjd1001 said:

Short answer for me. Yes.

Long answer, it is SOOO much more complicated.

What do you consider a good center?  One who can excel in the role you put them in, so they may be a top player for YOUR team but not so on another team with different teammates?

What do you want them to do? Is a 50 goal scorer who is below average defensively better or worse than a guy who scores 30 but is a shut down, penalty killer, on the ice protecting a lead at the end of the game guy.

For me, the way a forward can change a game the most is by scoring goals, not preventing them. Yes, preventing them is important, but the best-of-the-best defensive center I think matters a bit less than the best-of-the-best producer of goals. So I put a bit more weight on that.  Tage, for me, I think his production was down because he was playing through an injury.  Every center in the league being healthy, I think Tages gets you close to 50 goals, and for me, that puts him in the 5th-10th best in the league. So top 15? yeah.

I also think he was very effective as a penalty killer last year when given that chance. His size and reach allows him to 'hold is ground' and not start 'chasing' in his own end. He did well at it. Now, that was with DG's system, will he have the same role with Ruff? Maybe not, but in one defensive part of his game (Penalty killing) he showed he could use his size/reach and be very good at that at times.

I think it’s a little easier than that. 

Started tomorrow, would Tage Thompson definitively be the first line center on over half the teams in the league?

Edited September 24 by Mango

[mjd1001]

10 hours ago, Mango said:

I think it’s a little easier than that. 

Started tomorrow, would Tage Thompson definitively be the first line center on over half the teams in the league?

He'd be in the conversation for me.  Based on last nights preseason game, no, he didn't impress me much. But based on the player I think he is, and how I think he is going to perform this coming season, yes.

When I look at the best players at any position, the issue is its not linear.  The Best 1-3 guys at any position usually are easy to see how much better they are then guys 4-7. Guys 4-7 are a little bit better than the next group. But by the time you get to guys 10-20...the 10th best guy is really, really close to the 10 guys after them. meaning, put Tage in a group of Centers, I would have a hard time being convinced he isn't as good as the 10th best guy in the league...or as 'bad' as the 25th best.

[Drag0nDan]

20 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I thought Thompson did pretty good on the PK. When he was paired with Greenway out there, I thought they were excellent as the 2 forwards. But, as you said, he's your #1 scorer, don't put him out there where he can/will be taking shots into himself. 

Which is fine to have it in your back pocket, but getting hurt in like october affected him pretty much the entire season.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

The NHL Network had him outside of the top 20 on their annual best centers list.  Mike Johnson did say that Tage was the one player who could vault up the list with a bounce back season.

They also had Dahlin as the 11 best D in the NHL.  

These actually sound about right.

Edited September 24 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The NHL Network had him outside of the top 20 on their annual best centers list.  Mike Johnson did say that Tage was the one player who could vault up the list with a bounce back season.

They also had Dahlin as the 11 best D in the NHL.  

These actually sound about right.

Nah, Rasmus Dahlin is well within the top 10 of NHL defenders. If he didn't play on a team that was total trash last year in terms of generating offense at 5v5 and the PP, Dahlin would be thought of as better. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

31 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Nah, Rasmus Dahlin is well within the top 10 of NHL defenders. If he didn't play on a team that was total trash last year in terms of generating offense at 5v5 and the PP, Dahlin would be thought of as better. 

He was 7th on their list 23/24 & now 11th for 24/25.

Here is the current list: top 10 - Makar, Q Hughes, Hedman, Josi, Heiskanen, Forsling, McAvoy, Fox, Bouchard, and Toews.  Next 10 - Dahlin, Morrissey, Slavin, Werenski, Dobson, Ekholm, Doughty, Hanifin, Halilton & Seider.  Who are you kicking out of the top 10?  Forsling? Bouchard? He has his breakout with 80 points last season.   

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He was 7th on their list 23/24 & now 11th for 24/25.

Here is the current list: top 10 - Makar, Q Hughes, Hedman, Josi, Heiskanen, Forsling, McAvoy, Fox, Bouchard, and Toews.  Next 10 - Dahlin, Morrissey, Slavin, Werenski, Dobson, Ekholm, Doughty, Hanifin, Halilton & Seider.  Who are you kicking out of the top 10?  Forsling? Bouchard? He has his breakout with 80 points last season.   

If I was drafting a D from scratch the only guys i would consider over Ras are Makar and Hughes. They are as talented and have had better results over the past 2 years.

Hedman and Josi are on his level right now, but I take Dahlin because he is at the start of his prime, rather than the finish.

Fox, McAvoy and Heiskanen are in the ballpark to the point where I could see why someone would prefer one of them. I prefer Ras.

For me, no one else is in the discussion. So somewhere between 3 and 8 is fair.

I agree with @LGR4GM, that his numbers and his reputation among the greater NHL fanbase is tainted by being on the Sabres. Just look at how the perception of Hughes shifted last year.

If Buffalo ever gets good, he will be in the Norris conversation.

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

If I was drafting a D from scratch the only guys i would consider over Ras are Makar and Hughes. They are as talented and have had better results over the past 2 years.

Hedman and Josi are on his level right now, but I take Dahlin because he is at the start of his prime, rather than the finish.

Fox, McAvoy and Heiskanen are in the ballpark to the point where I could see why someone would prefer one of them. I prefer Ras.

For me, no one else is in the discussion. So somewhere between 3 and 8 is fair.

I agree with @LGR4GM, that his numbers and his reputation among the greater NHL fanbase is tainted by being on the Sabres. Just look at how the perception of Hughes shifted last year.

If Buffalo ever gets good, he will be in the Norris conversation.

Heck, the Sabres don't even need to get good to get him into the Norris conversation.  Until he was playing through the back injury 2 seasons ago he was in the conversation and the Sabres were merely relevant.

If the Sabres get actually good, he's a finalist at minimum.

[Weave]

The Hockey Guy did a top 15 or top 20 (I don’t remember which) defenseman video a few weeks ago.  Dahlin was on the bottom half of the list.

I will concede that he may be better rated if he were on a better team, but it seems the view from outside Buffalo fandom is not as rosy on Ras as it is inside the fandom.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

The Hockey Guy did a top 15 or top 20 (I don’t remember which) defenseman video a few weeks ago.  Dahlin was on the bottom half of the list.

I will concede that he may be better rated if he were on a better team, but it seems the view from outside Buffalo fandom is not as rosy on Ras as it is inside the fandom.

Athletic’s annual ranking just came out today.

He was ranked at the same level as Hedman as the 8th/9th best defenceman and between the 32 and 39th best player overall - they rank in tiers using statistical analysis then vetting that through real NHL executives.

Dahlin fell out of Tier 2 for two primary reasons: He didn’t produce as much offensively as he did in 2022-23 (in terms of both points total and overall impact) and the Sabres regressed as a team.

Still, there’s plenty of reason to think a return to franchise-player status is still in the cards for the 24-year-old, starting with the fact he had a second consecutive season of decent defensive play. That’s exactly what some of his doubters wanted to see, and he delivered.

”I do (think he can defend at an elite level),” one coach said. ”I hear great things about him as a competitor. He can defend as well as all those (Tier 2) guys.”

If he shows the full picture for a full season — and some of that hinges on his teammates — he’ll regain his forward momentum. He’s got top-five D-man potential.

On topic, Tage ranked in the 16 to 20 range for centres - and between 50 and 62 overall.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5750903/2024/09/24/nhl-best-players-list-2024-2025-season/

Other Sabres to make the list of the NHL’s 150 best players were Tuch and local whipping boys Power and Cozens.

Edited September 24 by dudacek

[LTS]

5 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

He'd be in the conversation for me.  Based on last nights preseason game, no, he didn't impress me much. But based on the player I think he is, and how I think he is going to perform this coming season, yes.

When I look at the best players at any position, the issue is its not linear.  The Best 1-3 guys at any position usually are easy to see how much better they are then guys 4-7. Guys 4-7 are a little bit better than the next group. But by the time you get to guys 10-20...the 10th best guy is really, really close to the 10 guys after them. meaning, put Tage in a group of Centers, I would have a hard time being convinced he isn't as good as the 10th best guy in the league...or as 'bad' as the 25th best.

Last season stats:

162nd in FOW%.  Of the top 162, there were 18 players in the top 162 that had 100 face-offs or less.  Even if you exclude them, Tage is just inside the 1op 150 players in FOW%

• 31st in goals
• 70th in assists
• 52nd in total points
• 95th in +/-
• 44th in TOI/GP.

What metrics is anyone looking at that says Tage Thompson is worth this consideration?

He is tied for 1st in height at 6'6, with Nick Bjugstad, Michael Rasmussen, and Aliaksei Protas though!