Is Tage Thompson a top 15 center in the NHL?

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And nothing to write home about defensively. Never understood the cherry picking of goals 

There is no question he is not a complete player and that certainly diminishes his status.  

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And nothing to write home about defensively. Never understood the cherry picking of goals 

Quick scan and probably missed a player or two, but Tage's possession numbers last year compared to others on GA's list

• Barkov 57.8
• McDavid 56.7
• Aho 56.7
• Matthews 55.8
• MacKinnon 55.6
• Hughes 55.4
• Crosby 54.6
• Draisaitl 52.7
• Thompson 52.5
• Stutzle 52.5
• Tavares 52.1
• Point 52.0
• Barzal 51.6
• Miller 51.4
• Petterson 51.2
• Larkin 50.0
• Stamkos 49.8
• Eichel 49.8
• Zibanejad 49.6
• Thomas 48.6

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by dudacek

[LETSTUCHINGO]

38 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

No.  I think it’s fair to say that at his best he is an above average 1st line center, but far from the elite players at his position.  

What did you answer "no" to? Injuries don't impact performance and stats?

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Quick scan and probably missed a player or two, but Tage's possession numbers last year compared to others on GA's list

• Barkov 57.8
• McDavid 56.7
• Aho 56.7
• Matthews 55.8
• MacKinnon 55.6
• Hughes 55.4
• Crosby 54.6
• Draisaitl 52.7
• Thompson 52.5
• Stutzle 52.5
• Tavares 52.1
• Point 52.0
• Barzal 51.6
• Miller 51.4
• Petterson 51.2
• Larkin 50.0
• Stamkos 49.8
• Eichel 49.8
• Zibanejad 49.6
• Thomas 48.6

 

 

Go on?

Do you believe Tage was a top 15 C in the league last year? Cause if not, what you’ve done is a good job illustrating the cherry pick - the idea a handful of interesting numbers can be pulled from what we know is, in totality, not close to a top 15 season. Like, not even close to close. He was closer to being a 2C than a top of the league player 

Edited 1 hour ago by Thorny

[mjd1001]

Short answer for me. Yes.

Long answer, it is SOOO much more complicated.

What do you consider a good center?  One who can excel in the role you put them in, so they may be a top player for YOUR team but not so on another team with different teammates?

What do you want them to do? Is a 50 goal scorer who is below average defensively better or worse than a guy who scores 30 but is a shut down, penalty killer, on the ice protecting a lead at the end of the game guy.

For me, the way a forward can change a game the most is by scoring goals, not preventing them. Yes, preventing them is important, but the best-of-the-best defensive center I think matters a bit less than the best-of-the-best producer of goals. So I put a bit more weight on that.  Tage, for me, I think his production was down because he was playing through an injury.  Every center in the league being healthy, I think Tages gets you close to 50 goals, and for me, that puts him in the 5th-10th best in the league. So top 15? yeah.

I also think he was very effective as a penalty killer last year when given that chance. His size and reach allows him to 'hold is ground' and not start 'chasing' in his own end. He did well at it. Now, that was with DG's system, will he have the same role with Ruff? Maybe not, but in one defensive part of his game (Penalty killing) he showed he could use his size/reach and be very good at that at times.

Edited 1 hour ago by mjd1001

[DarthEbriate]

For these top-X lists, I always go back to the premise: It's game 7. The lineups are identical. There are no futures, no contract, age, health or "will he hold up through the season" considerations. One game, all three zones.

You've got JJP-TNT-Tuch vs. JJP-McDavid-Tuch. Who are you taking?

Then, proceed down the list of centers you'd take. O-zone faceoff, D-zone faceoff, up one in the 3rd, down one with under 60 seconds to go. 

 

Thompson is definitely a top-10 shooting center (Bedard will surpass him soon and push him down one spot.) But playmaker? Vision? Tenacity? Winning a key faceoff? Defensively? Being the driving force on a powerplay as opposed to just a stationary sniper? Thompson is not top-15 in those categories.

[dudacek]

20 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Go on?

Do you believe Tage was a top 15 C in the league last year? Cause if not, what you’ve done is a good job illustrating the cherry pick - the idea a handful of interesting numbers can be pulled from what we know is, in totality, not close to a top 15 season. Like, not even close to close. He was closer to being a 2C than a top of the league player 

You raised the the topic of defensive play. I wondered how he stacked up, looked it up and shared the info. 🤷

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

To answer the thread, he was two years ago and he wasn't last year.

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by dudacek

[mjd1001]

I think people underestimate the impact he has on the 'defensive' side of the game, at least slightly.

Now, there is a difference between 'defensive play' and 'defensive impact.'

Maybe he's not going hard into the corners and winning a ton of loose pucks in the D-zone. Maybe he's not coming up behind players and taking the puck away numerous times a game. Yeah, I get that.

But, just by his size and reach, he has an positive defensive impact on the game that often isn't noticed. How many passes are NOT made or not completed by the opposition because his size and reach takes up so much room in the center of the ice?  How many plays are prevented in the defensive zone with him just standing on the slot because of his size compared to a guy who might be 5'11"?  

Is it a TON of plays? maybe not, but I think it would be naive to say it doesn't matter at all. Its like CBs in football, you notice the guy who plays great man-to-man and sticks with the WR that you can see, but sometimes a guy who just sits in the zone can have just as much of an impact on the play.

[Thorny]

26 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

For these top-X lists, I always go back to the premise: It's game 7. The lineups are identical. There are no futures, no contract, age, health or "will he hold up through the season" considerations. One game, all three zones.

You've got JJP-TNT-Tuch vs. JJP-McDavid-Tuch. Who are you taking?

Then, proceed down the list of centers you'd take. O-zone faceoff, D-zone faceoff, up one in the 3rd, down one with under 60 seconds to go. 

 

Thompson is definitely a top-10 shooting center (Bedard will surpass him soon and push him down one spot.) But playmaker? Vision? Tenacity? Winning a key faceoff? Defensively? Being the driving force on a powerplay as opposed to just a stationary sniper? Thompson is not top-15 in those categories.

Well said 

[DarthEbriate]

The other thing I look at is, how does the player do when the other team really, really cares? What happens when you go into the game and the opponent puts all their attention on taking away your game? What happens when you get matched against a Bergeron, a Barkov, or some checking 2C punk like a Peca or Kesler or Kadri?

When teams really key on Thompson and try to take away his space, the eye test has said he goes a little silent. That's also been on Skinner and Tuch and the rest of the Sabres. But top-flight centers don't go silent --- they may be held off the score sheet by a great defensive effort and goalie, but they don't go quietly.

TNT has 6 points in 23 games against Boston, 9 points in 15 games against Florida. Combined -20. Again, this is reflective of the team as well, and he wasn't 1C in all those games, but it's...not good.

[Weave]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

So, no 

Probably not.

But I am open to a change of mind if he ever gets consistent.

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The other thing I look at is, how does the player do when the other team really, really cares? What happens when you go into the game and the opponent puts all their attention on taking away your game? What happens when you get matched against a Bergeron, a Barkov, or some checking 2C punk like a Peca or Kesler or Kadri?

When teams really key on Thompson and try to take away his space, the eye test has said he goes a little silent. That's also been on Skinner and Tuch and the rest of the Sabres. But top-flight centers don't go silent --- they may be held off the score sheet by a great defensive effort and goalie, but they don't go quietly.

TNT has 6 points in 23 games against Boston, 9 points in 15 games against Florida. Combined -20. Again, this is reflective of the team as well, and he wasn't 1C in all those games, but it's...not good.

And last year was the first year any team would have been game planning for him 

1 minute ago, Weave said:

Probably not.

But I am open to a change of mind if he ever gets consistent.

Of course. That’s what I mean: I’m open to different being proven but if it’s not proven yet you aren’t a top 15 player. That consistency is part and parcel with the definition imo 

He’s had a top 15 season 

[GASabresIUFAN]

54 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Quick scan and probably missed a player or two, but Tage's possession numbers last year compared to others on GA's list

• Barkov 57.8
• McDavid 56.7
• Aho 56.7
• Matthews 55.8
• MacKinnon 55.6
• Hughes 55.4
• Crosby 54.6
• Draisaitl 52.7
• Thompson 52.5
• Stutzle 52.5
• Tavares 52.1
• Point 52.0
• Barzal 51.6
• Miller 51.4
• Petterson 51.2
• Larkin 50.0
• Stamkos 49.8
• Eichel 49.8
• Zibanejad 49.6
• Thomas 48.6

 

 

This really isn't a defensive metric.  It reflects offensive zone possession time more than anything else.  It doesn't reflect his back checking, his ability to create breakouts from the D Zone etc...  His Ozone starts last season were nearly 60%.  I would hope he'd be better than average keeping the puck in the zone with that starting point.  He also doesn't block shots, or hit many people, especially given his size, and he's horrible in the FO circles at 43%.  He also doesn't kill penalties.  DG tried it early last year and it didn't go well.

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This really isn't a defensive metric.  It reflects offensive zone possession time more than anything else.  It doesn't reflect his back checking, his ability to create breakouts from the D Zone etc...  His Ozone starts last season were nearly 60%.  I would hope he'd be better than average keeping the puck in the zone with that starting point.  He also doesn't block shots, or hit many people, especially given his size, and he's horrible in the FO circles at 43%.  He also doesn't kill penalties.  DG tried it early last year and it didn't go well.

Don't have a dog in this fight, so really don't feel like getting into the details of how much impact he has in the defensive zone, but the reason Granato stopped having him kill penalties wasn't because he was ineffective in that role; he stopped having Thompson kill penalties because he broke his hand blocking a shot.  And there were several other guys whose hands were FAR more expendable than Tage's was.

So, would say he SHOULDN'T kill penalties, not that he DOESN'T kill penalties.

[DarthEbriate]

18 minutes ago, Thorny said:

And last year was the first year any team would have been game planning for him  

Thinking back, he'd had a really good breakout 38-goal season, so teams knew he was dangerous. But then there were a couple big games early in 2022-23 where we started having these "is Tage MVP-vote-worthy good?" discussions. Time for some game log research....

The big games were 3-3-6 vs. DET and 5-1-6 vs. CBJ. So those two teams had ample reasons afterward to key on him. How's he done since?

CBJ
2022
5-1 W
1-0 L

2023
1-0 L
0-1 W
0-0 W

DET
2022
3-3 W
0-1 W
0-0 W
1-1 W

2023
0-1 L
0-2 W
1-0 L
1-0 L

Since the explosion: DET 8 points in 7 games; CBJ 4 points in 4 games. That's top-line production against non-playoff teams, which is good, and also expected. But they haven't let him take over a scoresheet since.