Is Tage Thompson a top 15 center in the NHL?

[mjd1001]

42 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

Nope. You guys just don’t understand @HOUSE’s sense of humor.

Well, putting a gif up there dismissing someone else's post or taking a shot at what they say, I don't consider that humor, its kinda rude.

[HOUSE]

7 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Well, putting a gif up there dismissing someone else's post or taking a shot at what they say, I don't consider that humor, its kinda rude.

[JoeSchmoe]

Thompson looks like 22-23 Thompson. If we are going to make the playoffs, this was one of the keys. Hopefully he keeps it up because he doesn't just look like a top 15C when he's playing like this. He looks top 5.

[mjd1001]

On 10/26/2024 at 6:29 PM, JoeSchmoe said:

Thompson looks like 22-23 Thompson. If we are going to make the playoffs, this was one of the keys. Hopefully he keeps it up because he doesn't just look like a top 15C when he's playing like this. He looks top 5.

Ok, well I'm about to use, maybe manipulate some numbers to support that he is a top 15, or maybe higher center in the league.

First a couple of opinions:

1.)  I personally value goals a LOT more than points.  A goal to me is worth 2 times, if not more a primary assist. Secondary assists are pretty much useless to me. Well not totally useless, but to me just about as good as a 'plus' on 'plus-minus'.  

2.) I think Tage is above-average-to-good without the puck.  His size isn't so much for hitting, but for taking up passing lanes. Also, when he is FOCUSED on defense (not looking to break out of the zone) I think he is actually good. 

3.) a few of us have maintained that Tage played through an injury the first half of last year that impacted his performance. We do know he had an injury. We do know it was some kind of an upper body injury. We do know that Austin Matthews played through a similar injury the year before and his numbers dipped by almost the same percentages as Tage (goals, shooting percentage) and then when he had an offseason to heal, he came back better than ever.

Now as for scoring.  To account for that possible period he was playing through injury, take a look at breaking down his production every year since he was made a center (his 4th season now) by half seasons:

1st half of 2021-22: 39 games played, 14 goals in 39 games (29 goal pace per 82)

2nd half of 21-22:  39 games played, 24 goals in 39 games (50 goal pace)

1st half of 22-23:  39 games played, 31 goals in 39 games (65 goal pace)

2nd half of 22-23: 39 games played, 16 goals in 39 games (34 goal pace)

1st part of season through Feb 25: 48 games played, 16 goals in 36 games (27 goal pace per 82) I chose this date because everyting seemed to "click" after (this is when he was playing through the time closest to his injury)

2nd part after Feb 26:  23 games played, 13 goals in 35 games (46 goal pace)

1st part of 2024-25 so far: 9 games played, 7 goals in 9 games (64 goal pace per 82)

Take out the only time we know he was playing through an injury (1st part of last season) and you get 105 goals in 200 games played since he became a center, or a 43 per 80 pace.  Over half-season stretches, he is at least 'very good' and some stretches where he an 'elite' goal scorer/producer.

So on one hand, yes, I split last season up in the way to make it look better for the 2nd part, but that is BECAUSE the farther he got away from the injury, the better he played.  Now it was clear to me, and many others, he was playing injured the first half of last year. NHL edge numbers supported that (his skating speed was slightly lower and his shot speed was noticably lower.)  Since he became a center, that is his worst production. If you look at his other production (goals per game, goals per 82, however you want to show it), he is one of the better goal scorers in the league.  

So, a guy who I think is pretty decent (average to above average) without the puck, and someone with goal production numbers like that, (top 10 in the league, maybe top 5 if you take out when he was playing through an injury), and yeah, he's top 15 to me, maybe much higher.

Again, That is what I think, and I chose to present numbers to support that view, but the numbers ARE real.

 

Edited October 28 by mjd1001

[#freejame]

13 hours ago, HOUSE said:

[JustOneParade]

12 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, well I'm about to use, maybe manipulate some numbers to support that he is a top 15, or maybe higher center in the league.

First a couple of opinions:

1.)  I personally value goals a LOT more than points.  A goal to me is worth 2 times, if not more a primary assist. Secondary assists are pretty much useless to me. Well not totally useless, but to me just about as good as a 'plus' on 'plus-minus'.  

2.) I think Tage is above-average-to-good without the puck.  His size isn't so much for hitting, but for taking up passing lanes. Also, when he is FOCUSED on defense (not looking to break out of the zone) I think he is actually good. 

3.) a few of us have maintained that Tage played through an injury the first half of last year that impacted his performance. We do know he had an injury. We do know it was some kind of an upper body injury. We do know that Austin Matthews played through a similar injury the year before and his numbers dipped by almost the same percentages as Tage (goals, shooting percentage) and then when he had an offseason to heal, he came back better than ever.

Now as for scoring.  To account for that possible period he was playing through injury, take a look at breaking down his production every year since he was made a center (his 4th season now) by half seasons:

1st half of 2021-22: 39 games played, 14 goals in 39 games (29 goal pace per 82)

2nd half of 21-22:  39 games played, 24 goals in 39 games (50 goal pace)

1st half of 22-23:  39 games played, 31 goals in 39 games (65 goal pace)

2nd half of 22-23: 39 games played, 16 goals in 39 games (34 goal pace)

1st part of season through Feb 25: 48 games played, 16 goals in 36 games (27 goal pace per 82) I chose this date because everyting seemed to "click" after

2nd part after Feb 26:  23 games played, 13 goals in 35 games (46 goal pace)

1st part of 2024-25 so far: 9 games played, 7 goals in 9 games (64 goal pace per 82)

Take out the only time we know he was playing through an injury (1st part of last season) and you get 105 goals in 200 games played since he became a center, or a 43 per 80 pace.  Over half-season stretches, he is at least 'very good' and some stretches where he an 'elite' goal scorer/producer.

So on one hand, yes, I split last season up in the way to make it look better for the 2nd part, but that is BECAUSE the farther he got away from the injury, the better he played.  Now it was clear to me, and many others, he was playing injured the first half of last year. NHL edge numbers supported that (his skating speed was slightly lower and his shot speed was noticably lower.)  Since he became a center, that is his worst production. If you look at his other production (goals per game, goals per 82, however you want to show it), he is one of the better goal scorers in the league.  

So, a guy who I think is pretty decent (average to above average) without the puck, and someone with goal production numbers like that, (top 10 in the league, maybe top 5 if you take out when he was playing through an injury), and yeah, he's top 15 to me, maybe much higher.

Again, That is what I think, and I chose to present numbers to support that view, but the numbers ARE real.

 

Good analysis. I will also that Tage’s dip in scoring rate the second half of ‘22-23 coincided with when teams decided to cheat hard towards Tage and take away his bombs on the PP. That’s when the Sabres PP died because Matt Ellis had no counter strategy. Still, a 34 goal pace ain’t too shabby.

[LGR4GM]

21 minutes ago, JustOneParade said:

Good analysis. I will also that Tage’s dip in scoring rate the second half of ‘22-23 coincided with when teams decided to cheat hard towards Tage and take away his bombs on the PP. That’s when the Sabres PP died because Matt Ellis had no counter strategy. Still, a 34 goal pace ain’t too shabby.

Wasn't someone else the pp coach in 2022? Ellis was only an assistant last year?

[Jorcus]

How many other centers can do this?

Tage Thompson (2-1—3) starred in the Sabres' afternoon win with three points and a 104.69 mph slap shot 4:01 into the first period which was the fastest shot ever recorded by NHL EDGE (since 2021-22)

That bumps him up some. 

[LTS]

16 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, well I'm about to use, maybe manipulate some numbers to support that he is a top 15, or maybe higher center in the league.

First a couple of opinions:

1.)  I personally value goals a LOT more than points.  A goal to me is worth 2 times, if not more a primary assist. Secondary assists are pretty much useless to me. Well not totally useless, but to me just about as good as a 'plus' on 'plus-minus'.  

 

 

I'm legitimately puzzled by this take.  if a player has an assist, a goal must have been scored. Regardless of secondary or primary, the player receiving an assist had a part to play in a goal being scored. 

I suppose you could argue in favor of the ability to score unassisted goals but I don't think that trends where you want it to. Relying on players to score goals unassisted would mean either they are making a hell of a defensive play to cause a turnover and then score or they are a solo artist and not using their teammates as much. I don't think either of those translate into a good hockey team.

I did a cursory search for ratio of unassisted goals to assisted goals but did not find anything concrete.  There are lists of players and the vast majority have assisted goals which makes sense. I would also want to remove EN goals from the list of unassisted goals. Sure, those goals count for points but they really are not indicative of the same skill level as other goals scored during a game.

I would want my players to have a ton of assists as it means there is strong puck movement and that movement is leading to goals. Certainly goals are the ultimate result, but how you score them matters to me.

[JustOneParade]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Wasn't someone else the pp coach in 2022? Ellis was only an assistant last year?

Not sure TBH. I thought Ellis was on DG’s original staff.

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, LTS said:

I'm legitimately puzzled by this take.  if a player has an assist, a goal must have been scored. Regardless of secondary or primary, the player receiving an assist had a part to play in a goal being scored. 

I suppose you could argue in favor of the ability to score unassisted goals but I don't think that trends where you want it to. Relying on players to score goals unassisted would mean either they are making a hell of a defensive play to cause a turnover and then score or they are a solo artist and not using their teammates as much. I don't think either of those translate into a good hockey team.

I did a cursory search for ratio of unassisted goals to assisted goals but did not find anything concrete.  There are lists of players and the vast majority have assisted goals which makes sense. I would also want to remove EN goals from the list of unassisted goals. Sure, those goals count for points but they really are not indicative of the same skill level as other goals scored during a game.

I would want my players to have a ton of assists as it means there is strong puck movement and that movement is leading to goals. Certainly goals are the ultimate result, but how you score them matters to me.

Well, 2 things:

-first, for every goal scored, there are 2 assists given. So by math, an assist is worth half of a goal.

-2nd, sure every once in a while, a goal is scored by deflecting off of someone, but the goal is the ultimate thing to do.  An assist can be given if someone is the last one to touch the puck before the scorer, many, I would say MOST goals scored have a lot more skill involved by the scorer than the people who are handed out assists.

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Well, 2 things:

-first, for every goal scored, there are 2 assists given. So by math, an assist is worth half of a goal.

-2nd, sure every once in a while, a goal is scored by deflecting off of someone, but the goal is the ultimate thing to do.  An assist can be given if someone is the last one to touch the puck before the scorer, many, I would say MOST goals scored have a lot more skill involved by the scorer than the people who are handed out assists.

I can't agree with that logic. Many times the primary assist has more impact on the goal being scored than the actual shot. Getting the puck to the stick of the open scorer is just as important as scoring the goal. 

To make the point obvious. Perreault picks up the puck behind his own net moves around the first forechecker, evades the second and then beats the third man down the wall so both D men move towards him and he hits a perfect pass onto a wide open Martin's stick who taps it in and you want to give Perreault half a point? Really?

Secondary assists can be garbage points but that's the way it is. It's a team game. 

[mjd1001]

16 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I can't agree with that logic. Many times the primary assist has more impact on the goal being scored than the actual shot. Getting the puck to the stick of the open scorer is just as important as scoring the goal. 

To make the point obvious. Perreault picks up the puck behind his own net moves around the first forechecker, evades the second and then beats the third man down the wall so both D men move towards him and he hits a perfect pass onto a wide open Martin's stick who taps it in and you want to give Perreault half a point? Really?

Secondary assists can be garbage points but that's the way it is. It's a team game. 

I'm not saying they shouldn't be awarded. I'm saying that when I evaluate a player, goals are SO much more important than assists.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

@HOUSE, he needs to 'shoot da puck' more, eh ??!!

Oh, and still YES !!

 

[Weave]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Well, 2 things:

-first, for every goal scored, there are 2 assists given. So by math, an assist is worth half of a goal.

-2nd, sure every once in a while, a goal is scored by deflecting off of someone, but the goal is the ultimate thing to do.  An assist can be given if someone is the last one to touch the puck before the scorer, many, I would say MOST goals scored have a lot more skill involved by the scorer than the people who are handed out assists.

*Up to* 2 assists scored, so not half, but less than 100% of the value of a goal.

[French Collection]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I can't agree with that logic. Many times the primary assist has more impact on the goal being scored than the actual shot. Getting the puck to the stick of the open scorer is just as important as scoring the goal. 

To make the point obvious. Perreault picks up the puck behind his own net moves around the first forechecker, evades the second and then beats the third man down the wall so both D men move towards him and he hits a perfect pass onto a wide open Martin's stick who taps it in and you want to give Perreault half a point? Really?

Secondary assists can be garbage points but that's the way it is. It's a team game. 

Perreault might get a secondary assist if the goalie stopped Martin’s shot and Robert taps in the rebound.

Secondary assist can be the driving force of a goal.

Many assists are prettier than the goal. Gretzky would’ve had another Art Ross trophy if Dionne hadn’t scored more goals.

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, French Collection said:

Perreault might get a secondary assist if the goalie stopped Martin’s shot and Robert taps in the rebound.

Secondary assist can be the driving force of a goal.

Many assists are prettier than the goal. Gretzky would’ve had another Art Ross trophy if Dionne hadn’t scored more goals.

That's a fair point. SOMETIMES they are cheap points but they can be the main driver of the play as well that's true. 

[French Collection]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

That's a fair point. SOMETIMES they are cheap points but they can be the main driver of the play as well that's true. 

On the goals side of things, Zach Hyman got 54 last year. I read somewhere that 45+ of those were within 6 feet of the net. While he got to the dirty areas and showed good hands, he wasn’t the architect of many plays and a lot of  those goals were pretty greasy.

He channeled his inner Tim Kerr.

[mjd1001]

24 minutes ago, French Collection said:

On the goals side of things, Zach Hyman got 54 last year. I read somewhere that 45+ of those were within 6 feet of the net. While he got to the dirty areas and showed good hands, he wasn’t the architect of many plays and a lot of  those goals were pretty greasy.

He channeled his inner Tim Kerr.

If we take that back to the topic at hand... Tage....

There is a valid point to be made... I don't agree with it. Totally... That assists can be just as valuable as goals. Yes, I agree they can be but overall I think goals are more important. If it was really easy to do, what Zach Hyman... Or Tim Kerr... Or Dave Andreychuk did.... A lot more players who score 10 goals a year would be doing that and putting up 30 up to 50.

But seriously now back to Thompson... I think watching him play... I think most people would agree that he doesn't get those Zach Hyman type goals. Tage is creating his own space, and his shot is one of the best in the league. 

Thompson might be one of the top examples of someone who gets his goals as a result of his own talent and work, not just tapping in someone else's leftovers.

[LTS]

22 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Well, 2 things:

-first, for every goal scored, there are 2 assists given. So by math, an assist is worth half of a goal.

-2nd, sure every once in a while, a goal is scored by deflecting off of someone, but the goal is the ultimate thing to do.  An assist can be given if someone is the last one to touch the puck before the scorer, many, I would say MOST goals scored have a lot more skill involved by the scorer than the people who are handed out assists.

Uhh, for every goal scored there are not 2 assists given. There are up to 2, certainly. I'll carry on more about the skill aspect of things below, using Tage as your example.

5 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

If we take that back to the topic at hand... Tage....

There is a valid point to be made... I don't agree with it. Totally... That assists can be just as valuable as goals. Yes, I agree they can be but overall I think goals are more important. If it was really easy to do, what Zach Hyman... Or Tim Kerr... Or Dave Andreychuk did.... A lot more players who score 10 goals a year would be doing that and putting up 30 up to 50.

But seriously now back to Thompson... I think watching him play... I think most people would agree that he doesn't get those Zach Hyman type goals. Tage is creating his own space, and his shot is one of the best in the league. 

Thompson might be one of the top examples of someone who gets his goals as a result of his own talent and work, not just tapping in someone else's leftovers.

So, when Tage Thompson slams a PP shot into the net by waiting for a pass, is it his skill that supercedes the pass to him?

When Tage slapped a 104mph shot off the goalie and then Zucker buried it was it Zucker's goal scoring skill that superceded Tage's shot?

When Dahlin hit Tage in the slot with a nice backhand was it goal scoring ability or a great pass... or, both?

Certainly we see a lot of goals scored with individual effort that results in assists that had no more skill than making a simple pass up the ice. However, we also see plenty of goals, like the one's I outlined above where the passing has a very real impact on the goal being scored?

One last example, the tic-tac-toe goal..  I could have scored the goal after the two preceeding passes left Detroit completely out of position. 

I understand where you are coming from, but there are far too many goals scored because of an incredible assist.  And EN goals are counted but are not really "goal scorer goals".

[mjd1001]

27 minutes ago, LTS said:

Uhh, for every goal scored there are not 2 assists given. There are up to 2, certainly. I'll carry on more about the skill aspect of things below, using Tage as your example.

So, when Tage Thompson slams a PP shot into the net by waiting for a pass, is it his skill that supercedes the pass to him?

When Tage slapped a 104mph shot off the goalie and then Zucker buried it was it Zucker's goal scoring skill that superceded Tage's shot?

When Dahlin hit Tage in the slot with a nice backhand was it goal scoring ability or a great pass... or, both?

Certainly we see a lot of goals scored with individual effort that results in assists that had no more skill than making a simple pass up the ice. However, we also see plenty of goals, like the one's I outlined above where the passing has a very real impact on the goal being scored?

One last example, the tic-tac-toe goal..  I could have scored the goal after the two preceeding passes left Detroit completely out of position. 

I understand where you are coming from, but there are far too many goals scored because of an incredible assist.  And EN goals are counted but are not really "goal scorer goals".

And any assists given on 'goal scorer goals' are even worse.

You are listing very specific examples. I have not mapped out every single goal scored by him or anyone else in the NHL, but to me its obvious that his goals are mostly scored when 'replacement level players' in the exact same situation would not have scored them.  OVERALL, I place much higher value on the ONE goal scored than I do on the 'up to' 2 assists given.

[DarthEbriate]

Barkov being in Florida's lineup tonight gives Thompson a chance to show where he's at. Let's see TNT duplicate or better upon his first game against Florida this season when he can't be sheltered from Barkov or Bennett all the time.

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, French Collection said:

On the goals side of things, Zach Hyman got 54 last year. I read somewhere that 45+ of those were within 6 feet of the net. While he got to the dirty areas and showed good hands, he wasn’t the architect of many plays and a lot of  those goals were pretty greasy.

He channeled his inner Tim Kerr.

Definitely. Greasy net front guy. A good compliment to McJesus doing everything else, but also a necessary ingredient. 

You always need a mixture of players and player types on a successful roster. We all know this. 

[LTS]

23 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

And any assists given on 'goal scorer goals' are even worse.

You are listing very specific examples. I have not mapped out every single goal scored by him or anyone else in the NHL, but to me its obvious that his goals are mostly scored when 'replacement level players' in the exact same situation would not have scored them.  OVERALL, I place much higher value on the ONE goal scored than I do on the 'up to' 2 assists given.

I understand where you are coming from. We will agree to not see it the same way and that's okay! 🙂

[GASabresIUFAN]

So after watching the Panthers game, it’s pretty clear TNT has the O skills to be an elite center. Sadly, nearly everything else is lacking.

Watching him vs Barkov is pretty clear which one does everything for his team and which one doesn’t.