Sabres on notice and everybody knows it

[#freejame]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

So what odds are people giving this team right now, what are we thinking? I feel like I settle in somewhere around thinking playoffs are about 35% likely. 

Could get that up to 50/50 pretty quickly with a fast start 

My faith is about at 20%. A winning record in October will put my faith probably closer to double, and if we’re in a playoff position at Thanksgiving I think I’ll probably lock myself in at 65%. 

[Cheektorado]

I don't think I can handle the playoffs.  I wouldn't know how to act.

[#freejame]

4 minutes ago, Cheektorado said:

I don't think I can handle the playoffs.  I wouldn't know how to act.

I want to think that I’ll be over the moon excited like I was for the Bills, but if it’s a squeaker where we are disappointing all season I’ll probably be pretty down still. 

[Cheektorado]

6 minutes ago, #freejame said:

I want to think that I’ll be over the moon excited like I was for the Bills, but if it’s a squeaker where we are disappointing all season I’ll probably be pretty down still. 

I don't know if I would be that excited and I'm not kidding.

[Brawndo]

On 9/6/2024 at 8:53 PM, Taro T said:

Though it's a contrarian opinion around here, don't honestly believe that Adams has a directive to not spend the Skinner savings.  But do believe he has a directive to not simply spend it to spend it.  Wouldn't be shocked if we do see a move during camp.  Wouldn't have money on it, but won't be surprised either.

And, rightly or wrongly, and we'll know about 8 months from now which it is, Adams is sticking to his plan.

Would be really nice if he can get that 2W deal done; would add a degree of wiggle room to what needs to happen to make this season successful.

The counter argument to this is this will be the first season the Sabres will not be in the bottom five in terms of spending, they will be 6th from the bottom. 
They were 32nd in spending two seasons ago when they missed the playoffs by one win. Since the stated goal coming the front office began last year they have been 29th in total spending and will be 27th this season after Boston signs Swayman and Detroit sign Seider and Raymond. The two seasons that the stated goal of the organization has been the playoffs they have so far left over 18 million dollars in unspent cap space. As Tom mentioned there was at least one deal in place that the owner squashed. This seems to be a deliberate plan from ownership. 
 

Only two teams have made the playoffs in the past decade that have been the the bottom ten of league spending. They are Carolina a few ago and Washington last season. You cannot win in the NHL without spending close to the cap, the analytics department, Karmanos, Adams all know this. Adams not being able to convince Pegula to do what is necessary is one of his biggest failures as a GM. 

9 hours ago, sabremike said:

I honestly think some people are incapable of grasping just how toxic Pegula is within NHL circles. Virtually no respectable or credible person in the industry wants anything to do with the guy because they know it's a career death sentence. And forget hockey: go talk to anyone who worked for PSE and ask them what they think. 

“Everything the Pegula’s Touch turns to sh!t and the entire NHL knows it” this is from a well respected member of a NHL Front Office that Sabres Fans would love to have in the organization.

4 hours ago, Pimlach said:

I hear this stuff too.  Now, why don't we hear it from the Bills side?   Is Beane that good of a politician when it comes to keeping the boss happy?  

Joshua Patrick Allen is the principal reason. Having a legitimate superstar as the QB in a league that prints money goes along way. 

Edited September 8 by Brawndo

[Doohicksie]

On 9/6/2024 at 8:10 PM, JoeSchmoe said:

On notice?!?! 🤣😂😅🤣 🤣😂😅🤣😂😅

🤣😂😅   🤣😂😅🤣😂...

 

😢

 

Can you think of a more apt representation of Sabres fandom than this?

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Can you think of a more apt representation of Sabres fandom than this?

This is my "Sabres fandom" in a gif:

[LTS]

22 hours ago, Weave said:

Assuming that it is a league wide understanding that owner = problem, can you imagine Adams market value if he does manage to build a winning team under these conditions?

Yep. If he can build something his value will be sky high.

22 hours ago, Pimlach said:

 

 

Both are spot on.  If Adams gets fired it could get even worse.   Any decent GM will want to hire his own coach and FO staff.  What good GM candidates want to work for Terry?  
 

Maybe Karmanos would take it, and be better than Adams, and that kind of move is less disruptive as well.   

Karmanos would probably take it if there wasn't another offer.  Everyone takes the spot even if they know it isn't perfect. You want GM on your resume. It puts him in the discussions for future positions elsewhere where experience matters.

19 hours ago, sabremike said:

Also the former Sabre (a name guy) who outright told a friend of mine he would never want to play for this organization ever again.

I believe that.  I also believe that a bunch of players are signing contract extensions with the Sabres when they don't have to.  Long term contract extensions no less. This means that they aren't as down on the organization as the person you are referencing.

18 hours ago, #freejame said:

Is Lindy the exception? I guess we’ll see. 

This is Lindy's last go. He was given a life line by his lifelong franchise.  It doesn't mean he can't be successful, but I really doubt Lindy's phone was going to be ringing for other coaching jobs at this point in life.

14 hours ago, sabremike said:

Oddly enough Botts actually ended up benefiting by failing under Pegula because lots of sentiment around the league was that it was Pegula's fault and not Botts.

Circle back to the top.  If the owners know Pegula is a joke then they aren't going to look too down on the GM is the GM does signs of being competent. This is why some people will take the positions despite Pegula as a failed owner.

I'm still on the fence about bringing in a streaming service that gets me MSG. Given that MSG+ is an absolute no go for me, the remaining decision is whether I want to spend $100 per month to be able to watch Sabres games.  I'm still not convinced that I do.  My son wants to get tickets to the home opener (he won't because he doesn't realize how expensive they are) but he asked me if I wanted to go and I declined. I have no interest in buying tickets for this franchise. It's exactly what I told the Sabres marketing rep who called me after I filled out the survey at the end of the season.

The team doesn't win, the arena is a joke, and the owner has yet to provide us with any reason to believe he cares.

 

[Sidc3000]

I’m back and as negative ever @Spoonman !

 

Why do people still believe that TP actually gives 💩💩 about this team? His 100% focus is on the Bills. They area perennial money maker unlike the Sabres. I will always believe that them buying the Sabres was a means to an end. Now it’s a drain on the pocketbook and that is why he did massive cost cutting measures in the last 4 years. The improvements to the arena ( like the new video board) is lipstick on a pig to try and make the team more attractive. 
 

It will be interesting on how the players handle being coached by a real NHL coach since they were use to rainbows and unicorns. They may be too mentally fragile to handle him. Time will tell if there will be a revolt or not. 

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, Sidc3000 said:

I’m back and as negative ever @Spoonman !

 

Why do people still believe that TP actually gives 💩💩 about this team? His 100% focus is on the Bills. They area perennial money maker unlike the Sabres. I will always believe that them buying the Sabres was a means to an end. Now it’s a drain on the pocketbook and that is why he did massive cost cutting measures in the last 4 years. The improvements to the arena ( like the new video board) is lipstick on a pig to try and make the team more attractive. 
 

It will be interesting on how the players handle being coached by a real NHL coach since they were use to rainbows and unicorns. They may be too mentally fragile to handle him. Time will tell if there will be a revolt or not. 

"There just happened to be a hockey team for sale."

Terry said all he needed to say before someone took away his mic and put him in Al Gore's lockbox.

Only the deaf dumb and blind kids don't know what it was all about.

[Thorner]

35 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

"There just happened to be a hockey team for sale."

Terry said all he needed to say before someone took away his mic and put him in Al Gore's lockbox.

Only the deaf dumb and blind kids don't know what it was all about.

You are on notice 

[Brawndo]

2 hours ago, LTS said:

Yep. If he can build something his value will be sky high.

Karmanos would probably take it if there wasn't another offer.  Everyone takes the spot even if they know it isn't perfect. You want GM on your resume. It puts him in the discussions for future positions elsewhere where experience matters.

I believe that.  I also believe that a bunch of players are signing contract extensions with the Sabres when they don't have to.  Long term contract extensions no less. This means that they aren't as down on the organization as the person you are referencing.

This is Lindy's last go. He was given a life line by his lifelong franchise.  It doesn't mean he can't be successful, but I really doubt Lindy's phone was going to be ringing for other coaching jobs at this point in life.

Circle back to the top.  If the owners know Pegula is a joke then they aren't going to look too down on the GM is the GM does signs of being competent. This is why some people will take the positions despite Pegula as a failed owner.

I'm still on the fence about bringing in a streaming service that gets me MSG. Given that MSG+ is an absolute no go for me, the remaining decision is whether I want to spend $100 per month to be able to watch Sabres games.  I'm still not convinced that I do.  My son wants to get tickets to the home opener (he won't because he doesn't realize how expensive they are) but he asked me if I wanted to go and I declined. I have no interest in buying tickets for this franchise. It's exactly what I told the Sabres marketing rep who called me after I filled out the survey at the end of the season.

The team doesn't win, the arena is a joke, and the owner has yet to provide us with any reason to believe he cares.

 

Karmanos was offered the Canucks position by Rutherford before the the current GM took the job 

[Big Guava]

As well they should be 

[Jorcus]

18 hours ago, Brawndo said:

The counter argument to this is this will be the first season the Sabres will not be in the bottom five in terms of spending, they will be 6th from the bottom. 
They were 32nd in spending two seasons ago when they missed the playoffs by one win. Since the stated goal coming the front office began last year they have been 29th in total spending and will be 27th this season after Boston signs Swayman and Detroit sign Seider and Raymond. The two seasons that the stated goal of the organization has been the playoffs they have so far left over 18 million dollars in unspent cap space. As Tom mentioned there was at least one deal in place that the owner squashed. This seems to be a deliberate plan from ownership. 
 

Only two teams have made the playoffs in the past decade that have been the the bottom ten of league spending. They are Carolina a few ago and Washington last season. You cannot win in the NHL without spending close to the cap, the analytics department, Karmanos, Adams all know this. Adams not being able to convince Pegula to do what is necessary is one of his biggest failures as a GM. 

“Everything the Pegula’s Touch turns to sh!t and the entire NHL knows it” this is from a well respected member of a NHL Front Office that Sabres Fans would love to have in the organization.

Joshua Patrick Allen is the principal reason. Having a legitimate superstar as the QB in a league that prints money goes along way. 

 

As far as the cap goes don't we have to be forward looking? Sure there is 8-9 Million under the cap at the moment but without movement there will be Peterka, Quinn, McLeod, and Byrum to sign under RFA contracts. Any of the those guys can get an offer sheet for anything under 4.5 million for a second round pick. Add in the Skinner penalty and maybe a preemptive bump for Tuch plus whatever might happen with LevI and one might argue that spending to the cap now would cost us a lot at the end of the season. Now that St Louis has opened the gates with offer sheets It could be war next off season and second round picks for some of these guys are a poor return. 

[Night Train]

Reaction to a Podcast.. here's my thoughts..

We already knew this.. Win or walk the plank. 

[Taro T]

20 hours ago, Brawndo said:

The counter argument to this is this will be the first season the Sabres will not be in the bottom five in terms of spending, they will be 6th from the bottom. 
They were 32nd in spending two seasons ago when they missed the playoffs by one win. Since the stated goal coming the front office began last year they have been 29th in total spending and will be 27th this season after Boston signs Swayman and Detroit sign Seider and Raymond. The two seasons that the stated goal of the organization has been the playoffs they have so far left over 18 million dollars in unspent cap space. As Tom mentioned there was at least one deal in place that the owner squashed. This seems to be a deliberate plan from ownership. 
 

Only two teams have made the playoffs in the past decade that have been the the bottom ten of league spending. They are Carolina a few ago and Washington last season. You cannot win in the NHL without spending close to the cap, the analytics department, Karmanos, Adams all know this. Adams not being able to convince Pegula to do what is necessary is one of his biggest failures as a GM. 

“Everything the Pegula’s Touch turns to sh!t and the entire NHL knows it” this is from a well respected member of a NHL Front Office that Sabres Fans would love to have in the organization.

Joshua Patrick Allen is the principal reason. Having a legitimate superstar as the QB in a league that prints money goes along way. 

Everything they touch sucks, except their NG holdings, the Bills, the Bandits, the Amerks, the Kin-ig-hit Hawks, and their tennis playing daughter's career.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Jorcus said:

 

As far as the cap goes don't we have to be forward looking? Sure there is 8-9 Million under the cap at the moment but without movement there will be Peterka, Quinn, McLeod, and Byrum to sign under RFA contracts. Any of the those guys can get an offer sheet for anything under 4.5 million for a second round pick. Add in the Skinner penalty and maybe a preemptive bump for Tuch plus whatever might happen with LevI and one might argue that spending to the cap now would cost us a lot at the end of the season. Now that St Louis has opened the gates with offer sheets It could be war next off season and second round picks for some of these guys are a poor return. 

This isn't football. There is no preemptive bump for Tuch. He's signed for 2 more years. 

It's piss poor management. Every NHL team finds ways to shed salary and players each season but Buffalo has to be extra super special careful in case... what? We're already so under the cap next year we can sign the important guys easily. 

You're over here telling me how scared I should be of next summer when Buffalo might not even make the playoffs because they are stupidly holding cap space open for nothing. Nice try but no. They didn't spend to the cap because they're incompetent. 

I'll add that if someone signs Quinn to 4.5 million offer sheet, Buffalo will simply match. It's pretty simple. Hell, I hope every player you listed signs a 2-3 year 4.5 offer. Would really make it easy. Oh no! JJ peterka signed a 4.5 million sheet what do we do?!? Match it. Done. 

Edited September 8 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

 

 

 

[DarthEbriate]

A projected $92 million cap means nothing if we're still EEE and GMKA has full capability to spend, but you know, still leave about 8% of the cap unused.

And whatever the cap is, they're already minus $4.44M for Skinner's buyout. Our hands are tied!

Edited September 8 by DarthEbriate

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

 

Thanks Chad for doing the homework and @LGR4GM for posting.

The “they need to keep space open for…?” is such a red herring.

There is one “dangerous” contract looming and that is Byram’s because he will be 2 years from UFA and will have arb rights.

Quinn, Benson, Levi and Peterka are all on ELCs and have no leverage whatsoever. They can choose to sign them to bigger long-term deals, but they can also take the Reinhart route.

And the fact is if any of them warrant fat deals, it will be because THEY PLAYED FANTASTIC HOCKEY AND EARNED IT and if they all do, that means the Sabres WILL BE GOOD!

[DarthEbriate]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Quinn, Benson, Levi and Peterka are all on ELCs and have no leverage whatsoever. They can choose to sign them to bigger long-term deals, but they can also take the Reinhart route.

The one thing that GMKA has proven is that if you're part of his core, he's happy to lock you up immediately (Muel, Cozens) or after one big year (TNT).

Cozens had an ELC year slide, but he signed his 7x$7.1M during his 68-point season. TNT signed his contract after his 68-point season (then shattered it the next season). Muel... well, he's not here for scoring points.

If Quinn and Peterka both have near point-per-game seasons (and I expect them one of them to do so), and GMKA wants the 8-year, they're going to point to Stutzle and his 8x$8.3M which he signed after scoring 58 points, and leading into his 90-point breakout.

And... none those contracts would be onerous if the ownership is willing to spend.

[Jorcus]

"I love this game. Let’s say the ceiling is $92 million. As of now they’d have $32.54 million. I’ll go high: JJP - 7.5m Byram - 6m McLeod - 4m Quinn - 5m Levi - 3m That equates to $25.5 million. Leaving $7 million BEFORE ANYONE IS REMOVED FROM THE ROSTER & I went high on proj."

 

I think he is removing any UFA from the roster Joker Zucker and Greenway in this scenario. which is 11 million. They could go but they also need to be replaced. with something. 

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

"I love this game. Let’s say the ceiling is $92 million. As of now they’d have $32.54 million. I’ll go high: JJP - 7.5m Byram - 6m McLeod - 4m Quinn - 5m Levi - 3m That equates to $25.5 million. Leaving $7 million BEFORE ANYONE IS REMOVED FROM THE ROSTER & I went high on proj."

 

I think he is removing any UFA from the roster Joker Zucker and Greenway in this scenario. which is 11 million. They could go but they also need to be replaced. with something. 

Wouldn’t an absolute worst-case scenario be Kulich, Rosen and Johnson?

All of whom should be cheap and ready, unless they’re busts?

Isnt it the whole point of having a prospect pool?

Never mind the fact that these are the kinds of decisions every playoff team has to make every year.

Edited September 9 by dudacek

[Jorcus]

25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Wouldn’t an absolute worst-case scenario be Kulich, Rosen and Johnson?

All of whom should be cheap and ready, unless they’re busts?

Isnt it the whole point of having a prospect pool?

Never mind the fact that these are the kinds of decisions every playoff team has to make every year.

 

It is a scenario, but my point is that Chad DeDominicis is making projections on next years salary cap and states he is not removing any players when in fact he is removing 4 of them who are UFA's adding in Abue-Kubel that accounts for 12.5 million in salary. Even with 4 entry level contracts that's 4 million dollars out of the 7 million he thinks he has left over. We also do not know what the salary cap will be. I doubt all the replacements for those guys will be Amerks. There is a lot of work to do at the end of the season roster wise and that cap money can get used up fast. 

Edited September 9 by Jorcus

[LGR4GM]

33 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

It is a scenario, but my point is that Chad DeDominicis is making projections on next years salary cap and states he is not removing any players when in fact he is removing 4 of them who are UFA's adding in Abue-Kubel that accounts for 12.5 million in salary. Even with 4 entry level contracts that's 4 million dollars out of the 7 million he thinks he has left over. We also do not know what the salary cap will be. I doubt all the replacements for those guys will be Amerks. There is a lot of work to do at the end of the season roster wise and that cap money can get used up fast. 

This team hasn't made the playoffs in 13 years and you want to just punt on this season to what? Maybe make the playoffs next season? If everyone hits and deserves massive raises. BTW, Chad deliberately used the top end for every player to calculate those numbers. 

This also ignores the fact Buffalo could trade for someone with 1 year left, trade for an RFA with term, trade someone else who doesn't pan out and keep who they use the extra space on this year because they are better. You are so worried about next year, they need to ice the best team they can this year and be like a real adult team and worry about spending the 30mil in cap for next season, next season.