Sabres point projections for the coming year

[dudacek]

The Athletic dropped its fantasy hockey projections this morning.

For those unfamiliar with it, it's done on a formula: a three-year weighted average of a players production including numbers beyond goals and assists, adjusted for age and any expected changes in roles and deployment.

Sabres numbers:

• Thompson 80
• Dahlin 72
• Tuch 70
• Cozens 67
• Peterka 63
• Quinn 48
• Benson 42
• Power 37
• Byram 32
• Zucker 32
• McLeod 29
• Greenway 24

That looks like a pretty high scoring team.

Edited September 3 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

I'll bet the over on Quinn and Benson 

[Archie Lee]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Athletic dropped its fantasy hockey projections this morning.

For those unfamiliar with it, it's done on a formula: a three-year weighted average of a players production including numbers beyond goals and assists, adjusted for age and any expected changes in roles and deployment.

Sabres numbers:

• Thompson 80
• Dahlin 72
• Tuch 70
• Cozens 67
• Peterka 63
• Quinn 48
• Benson 42
• Power 37
• Byram 32
• Zucker 32
• McLeod 29
• Greenway 24

That looks like a pretty high scoring team.

They are projecting an increase of 81 points over a year ago, from our top 5 scorers.  If they are correct, and the bottom doesn't fall out on UPL, I think that would make us a playoff team.

[dudacek]

26 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

They are projecting an increase of 81 points over a year ago, from our top 5 scorers.  If they are correct, and the bottom doesn't fall out on UPL, I think that would make us a playoff team.

One would think they'd have to be a train wreck in their own zone for that not to be a playoff team.

If it was just some guy's opinion, I'd say he was being too optimistic. None of the numbers are way out of line in and of themselves, there's just too many overs.

i have no idea how good the model's track record is.

[Thorny]

43 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Athletic dropped its fantasy hockey projections this morning.

For those unfamiliar with it, it's done on a formula: a three-year weighted average of a players production including numbers beyond goals and assists, adjusted for age and any expected changes in roles and deployment.

Sabres numbers:

• Thompson 80
• Dahlin 72
• Tuch 70
• Cozens 67
• Peterka 63
• Quinn 48
• Benson 42
• Power 37
• Byram 32
• Zucker 32
• McLeod 29
• Greenway 24

That looks like a pretty high scoring team.

Does it ever: they are projecting all top 12 scoring finishers finishing ahead of where they finished last year, a clean sweep

59 > 80

59 > 72

56 > 70

50 > 67

47 > 63

33 > 48

30 > 42

29 > 37

28 > 32

21 > 32

20 > 29

19 > 24

All told an increase of 141 points in the top 12

…divided by around 3 points per goal…the numbers seem to suggest we improve our goal total by 50

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Does it ever: they are projecting all top 12 scoring finishers finishing ahead of where they finished last year, a clean sweep

59 > 80

59 > 72

56 > 70

50 > 67

47 > 63

33 > 48

30 > 42

29 > 37

28 > 32

21 > 32

20 > 29

19 > 24

All told an increase of 141 points in the top 12

Apparently WAY too many overs.

[Thorny]

Just now, dudacek said:

Apparently WAY too many overs.

Does it weigh expected games played? Or are these all per 82? 

50 more goals would be a lot…interesting thing is I see no reason why the athletic would be inclined to be biased in our favour…so clearly we have a lot of talent 

the idea all 12 improve upon last year at once seems to suggest a flaw in the model imo, however

As mentioned, 50 more would be a lot: but I suppose not astronomical; would have been good for 4th last season 

We had 296 and finished 3rd two years ago 🤷‍♂️ 

The 50 more I suggested the numbers implied puts us exactly at 296 again. So there’s a method to the madness 

[PASabreFan]

103

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

The Athletic dropped its fantasy hockey projections this morning.

For those unfamiliar with it, it's done on a formula: a three-year weighted average of a players production including numbers beyond goals and assists, adjusted for age and any expected changes in roles and deployment.

Sabres numbers:

• Thompson 80
• Dahlin 72
• Tuch 70
• Cozens 67
• Peterka 63
• Quinn 48
• Benson 42
• Power 37
• Byram 32
• Zucker 32
• McLeod 29
• Greenway 24

That looks like a pretty high scoring team.

I think Thompson, Bryam, Power, and Quinn are over 'bets'. (of course the issue with them is possible injuries.)

Cozens and Tuch I'm a bit worried with them reaching those numbers. If Tuch is healthy and with Tage all year sure, but that "if" is pretty big.

[dudacek]

55 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Does it weigh expected games played? Or are these all per 82? 

50 more goals would be a lot…interesting thing is I see no reason why the athletic would be inclined to be biased in our favour…so clearly we have a lot of talent 

the idea all 12 improve upon last year at once seems to suggest a flaw in the model imo, however

As mentioned, 50 more would be a lot: but I suppose not astronomical; would have been good for 4th last season 

We had 296 and finished 3rd two years ago 🤷‍♂️ 

The 50 more I suggested the numbers implied puts us exactly at 296 again. So there’s a method to the madness 

So from 2 years ago to last year's team, it wasn't quite a clean sweep: 11 of 12 finishers got worse

Skinner's 46 last year for 7th topped Olofson's 40 in that slot from the year before.

Every other slot dropped.

Obviously just one example, but we didn't have to look far to find another example where such a dramatic, widespread change happened.

 

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So from 2 years ago to last year's team, it wasn't quite a clean sweep: 11 of 12 finishers got worse

Skinner's 46 last year for 7th topped Olofson's 40 in that slot from the year before.

Every other slot dropped.

Obviously just one example, but we didn't have to look far to find another example where such a dramatic, widespread change happened.

 

Makes sense to me - they aren’t independent events, there’s a ton of causation where the group as a whole benefits from the increase of the individual (1 goal often comes with 2 helpers). It also doesn’t appear as strange mathematically when you remember it’s the top 12 and not the only 12: some guys on the roster CAN have their point totals fall by the wayside it only looks like a “clean sweep” cause the parameter stops at 12, and it doesn’t need to be the same 12 on each side of the ledger 

[Getpucksdeep]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'll bet the over on Quinn and Benson 

Definitely taking that if available on my app of choice

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 9/3/2024 at 10:20 AM, dudacek said:

The Athletic dropped its fantasy hockey projections this morning.

For those unfamiliar with it, it's done on a formula: a three-year weighted average of a players production including numbers beyond goals and assists, adjusted for age and any expected changes in roles and deployment.

Sabres numbers:

• Thompson 80
• Dahlin 72
• Tuch 70
• Cozens 67
• Peterka 63
• Quinn 48
• Benson 42
• Power 37
• Byram 32
• Zucker 32
• McLeod 29
• Greenway 24

That looks like a pretty high scoring team.

But they'll have the Sabres finish nearly last in the Atlantic.  

[dudacek]

People wonder why some of of us are so high on Quinn.

Points/60 Minutes, 2023-24 (Min. 20 GP)

1. Connor McDavid - 3.50

2. Nathan MacKinnon - 3.41

3. Nikita Kucherov - 3.06

4. Auston Matthews - 2.95

5. Jack Quinn - 2.93

6. David Pastrnak - 2.88

Of course it is small sample size, but it's 27 games, not 6. And it's coming off 2 serious injuries.

 

 

[Thorny]

With any luck he’ll be our Mark Stone in a few years 

[dudacek]

Another interesting number from a player I think most of us are discounting:

Did we know that 2 years ago Jason Zucker finished 26th in the entire NHL with 25 even-strength goals?

Some of his peers: Skinner 27, Matthews 27, Matt Tkachuk 26, Guentzel 25, Eichel 25, Crosby 24, Kucherov 22

Sure would be nice if the old fella had another one of those in his holster.

[DarthEbriate]

27 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Another interesting number from a player I think most of us are discounting:

Did we know that 2 years ago Jason Zucker finished 26th in the entire NHL with 25 even-strength goals?

Some of his peers: Skinner 27, Matthews 27, Matt Tkachuk 26, Guentzel 25, Eichel 25, Crosby 24, Kucherov 22

Sure would be nice if the old fella had another one of those in his holster.

Don't look up who his center was... don't look up who his center was... don't look up who his center was...    Dang it. I looked.

[LGR4GM]

49 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Another interesting number from a player I think most of us are discounting:

Did we know that 2 years ago Jason Zucker finished 26th in the entire NHL with 25 even-strength goals?

Some of his peers: Skinner 27, Matthews 27, Matt Tkachuk 26, Guentzel 25, Eichel 25, Crosby 24, Kucherov 22

Sure would be nice if the old fella had another one of those in his holster.

We knew

21 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Don't look up who his center was... don't look up who his center was... don't look up who his center was...    Dang it. I looked.

Was it Crosby?

I won't be surprised if Benson ends up on the 3rd line to start the season. I think Ruff gives Zucker a shot with Cozens and Quinn.

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

We knew

Was it Crosby?

Malkin.

Zucker talked about it in his introductory presser, where he politely suggested he's got the game to do it again playing with the Sabres most talented players and implied that his totals dropped last year because he was on the 3rd line.

Pretty well-spoken guy

https://www.nhl.com/sabres/video/zucker-introductory-press-6356483972112

I must have missed the talk on the ES scoring earlier.

It is interesting in the context of that being Skinner's biggest strength.

Edited Thursday at 07:58 PM by dudacek

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I won't be surprised if Benson ends up on the 3rd line to start the season. I think Ruff gives Zucker a shot with Cozens and Quinn.

I'm actually leaning more toward Tage. He's the most Malkin like and benefits from a forechecking, get-to-the-net guy.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I'm actually leaning more toward Tage. He's the most Malkin like and benefits from a forechecking, get-to-the-net guy.

Peterka was good on that line end of year so I don't agree. I think they'll make Zucker battle Benson for that 2nd line spot. 

[dudacek]

49 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Peterka was good on that line end of year so I don't agree. I think they'll make Zucker battle Benson for that 2nd line spot. 

I don't know that Lindy will be OK with JJ's D on the top line.

I mean, you might be right and it seems like a lot of people are just assuming that it's 77's spot to lose, but with Skinner and Olofsson gone and the new bottom 6, he might be our weakest defender among the forwards.