Goal Scoring and the Sabres Current Forwards

[LGR4GM]

In 2023 the Sabres goal totals dropped. They had 293goals in 2022 and only 244goals in 2023 for a drop of 49g. Obviously as a result this team was worse. The question is do they have enough scoring to get back up closer to the 290 mark? And also how many goals do they need to just make the playoffs? Let's answer the 2nd question first, right around 270g is a solid number to make the playoffs. Last year 12 of the playoff teams had 270+/-5 or higher in goals with only 4 teams falling below that. For Buffalo then the goal should be 270g. 

Now the first question, do we have enough scoring for 290, no. Not unless you think the defense is going to put up about 100 goals. Right now I have the Sabres defense coming in around 40goals+/-5. The forwards clock in around 198goals+/-10. If you give everyone the benefit of the doubt and math it out we end up at 253goals as the max and 238 as the minimum. The only way to exceed that 253 top end is either A. to bring in more scoring (which is why everyone wants another 20-30g scorer) or B. up the number of shots the team takes, especially their top guys.

I think asking Lindy to create a system with more shots is possible. I also think that Quinn and Benson are wild cards because there is not enough shots and goals for their career sh% number to have much stability. Is Quinn going to get 23g or can he exceed that? What about Benson only getting 17? Is it possible Buffalo can hit that 270 threshold with the current roster? Sure, we are 17 goals away at the top end. If players stay healthy and Ruff is good, we could do it. But players will get injured and frankly there is a lack of proven depth. Can we get to 270 with the current roster? Yes. There is a path there with some modest improvements to get the extra 20ish goals we need. I would feel a lot better about it though if we brought in 1 more top 6 forward. 

Last part: You may ask how I got these numbers? I took every players career sh% (some got a little bump due to their last few years being clear signs of improvement) and then roughed out their average shots. A few due to lack of data require some guesstimation work but in the end I will post what I got in the raw numbers for debate. I didn't used games played as I feel that shots and sh% are better. Players can miss games and make up for them with shots or a better shot percentage. I also think sh% and shots is more stable. 

 

 

 

Edited August 22 by LGR4GM
Chart error

[dudacek]

This is thoughtful way of looking at what we should be expecting.

The fact is that even though what you post is entirely reasonable, when the rubber hits centre ice dot, we really don't know what we are going to get. There are too many variables, especially with so much of the roster so early in their careers.

From '22 to '23 the Sabres took a 62-goal jump without adding an impact player of any note. The last time the team made a similar leap was in '06, with 61 goals. Again, that came without any significant outside additions.

I wonder if there was anything in the numbers the preceding season that suggested that was possible, let alone likely, in either case.

Edited August 22 by dudacek

[Pimlach]

Good information.  

Defensive scoring could go up if Byram shoots more, and if Power’s shot gets better.  Both could get better.  

Some players will shoot better, for example I assume 19 year old Benson has worked on improving his shot.  

So we will need several players to score over their career averages again, like Thompson, Tuch and Cozens did two years ago.  

Edited August 22 by Pimlach

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Good information.  

Defensive scoring could go up if Byram shoots more, and if Power’s shot gets better.  Both could get better.  

Some players will shoot better, I assume 19 year old Benson has worked on improving his shot.  

So we will need several players to score over their career averages again, like Thompson, Tuch and Cozens did two years ago.  

I'm curious to see what trends are historically when you compare career averages to averages over the first 200 or so games.

I suspect guys like Cozens, Krebs, Benson, Peterka, Quinn, McLeod, Power, Byram and even Malenstyn are at a point in their careers where we should generally be expecting them to score over their career average.

Edited August 22 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm curious to see what trends are historically when you compare career averages to averages over the first 200 or so games.

I suspect guys like Cozens, Krebs, Benson, Peterka, Quinn, McLeod, Power, Byram and even Malenstyn are at a point in their careers where we should generally be expecting them to score over their career average.

No you shouldn't to all the bolded. Most of those guys are either A. old or B. over 200 games already. 

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No you shouldn't to all the bolded. Most of those guys are either A. old or B. over 200 games already. 

My point was that I suspect their average over their second 200 games to be higher than their first 200 games.

Byram and Power have played about 160 games each, Malenstyn 100. Krebs and McLeod just over 200

Edited August 22 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, dudacek said:

My point was that I suspect their average over their second 200 games to be higher than their first 200 games.

Byram and Power have played about 160 games each, Malenstyn 100. Krebs and McLeod just over 200

I didn't average their first 200 games. Also, your theory is everyone gets better, they don't. 

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I didn't average their first 200 games. Also, your theory is everyone gets better, they don't. 

Never said you did.

My theory is most do, and I posed a question.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Byram.  0.116. 75. 8.70

@LGR4GM 

These numbers seem low.  
Hockey-reference has his career shooting % at 11.9%
He has also taken 219 shots on net for his career in 164 games.  That’s about 110 shots per season.  That actually projects to 13 goals next season.  
 

Considering he has 10 in 42 games 2 years ago and 11 in 53 games last season.  We should expect a higher total than you projected over a full season.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I took every players career sh% (some got a little bump due to their last few years being clear signs of improvement)

What site did you use?  Hockey-reference has Lafferty at 10.3%, Tuch at 11.4, Zucker at 12.2 etc.. 

[mjd1001]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

In 2023 the Sabres goal totals dropped. They had 293goals in 2022 and only 244goals in 2023 for a drop of 49g. Obviously as a result this team was worse. The question is do they have enough scoring to get back up closer to the 290 mark? And also how many goals do they need to just make the playoffs? Let's answer the 2nd question first, right around 270g is a solid number to make the playoffs. Last year 12 of the playoff teams had 270+/-5 or higher in goals with only 4 teams falling below that. For Buffalo then the goal should be 270g. 

Now the first question, do we have enough scoring for 290, no. Not unless you think the defense is going to put up about 100 goals. Right now I have the Sabres defense coming in around 40goals+/-5. The forwards clock in around 198goals+/-10. If you give everyone the benefit of the doubt and math it out we end up at 253goals as the max and 238 as the minimum. The only way to exceed that 253 top end is either A. to bring in more scoring (which is why everyone wants another 20-30g scorer) or B. up the number of shots the team takes, especially their top guys.

I think asking Lindy to create a system with more shots is possible. I also think that Quinn and Benson are wild cards because there is not enough shots and goals for their career sh% number to have much stability. Is Quinn going to get 23g or can he exceed that? What about Benson only getting 17? Is it possible Buffalo can hit that 270 threshold with the current roster? Sure, we are 17 goals away at the top end. If players stay healthy and Ruff is good, we could do it. But players will get injured and frankly there is a lack of proven depth. Can we get to 270 with the current roster? Yes. There is a path there with some modest improvements to get the extra 20ish goals we need. I would feel a lot better about it though if we brought in 1 more top 6 forward. 

Last part: You may ask how I got these numbers? I took every players career sh% (some got a little bump due to their last few years being clear signs of improvement) and then roughed out their average shots. A few due to lack of data require some guesstimation work but in the end I will post what I got in the raw numbers for debate. I didn't used games played as I feel that shots and sh% are better. Players can miss games and make up for them with shots or a better shot percentage. I also think sh% and shots is more stable. 

 

 

 

The numbers you posted make sense, but I think the path to more goals is this:

-Last year was the outlier for Tage since he became center because of an injury, the 2 years prior are what we should expect.  He needs to be well above 40, close to 50 if he stays healthy.

-Quinn and JJP. As mentioned they are still young, their shooting percentage and previous shot totals hopefully can be improved on.  If healthy, MAYBE you can get 60 from those 2 combined.

-Cozens. You listed 19. I think that is close to reality, his 30+ goal season was the outlier. BUT, he DID it once so maybe he can do it again. 25 hopefully?

-If Tuch is on the first line and still getting PP time I want/need 25-30 from him.

I think that is the path to more goals. Does it happen?  you can't count on health/lack of injury, but if they can say pretty healthy, I think the above is possible.

Edited August 22 by mjd1001

[LGR4GM]

47 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What site did you use?  Hockey-reference has Lafferty at 10.3%, Tuch at 11.4, Zucker at 12.2 etc.. 

I used the last 3 years average on hockey reference and I adjusted them as I saw fit. 

Edited August 22 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Never said you did.

My theory is most do, and I posed a question.

Your theory is the same theory as Kevyn Adam's. That guys will internally improve, they could but you need a lot of ppl to improve while NO one gets worse. 20 goals have to come from somewhere. 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Byram.  0.116. 75. 8.70

@LGR4GM 

These numbers seem low.  
Hockey-reference has his career shooting % at 11.9%
He has also taken 219 shots on net for his career in 164 games.  That’s about 110 shots per season.  That actually projects to 13 goals next season.  
 

Considering he has 10 in 42 games 2 years ago and 11 in 53 games last season.  We should expect a higher total than you projected over a full season.  

Byram could outproduce that. He hasn't to this point though.

[JoeSchmoe]

Imagine if we still had Skinner and Mittelstadt.

[LGR4GM]

@GASabresIUFAN if I give Tuch a 11.5% and bump up Byram to 105 shots that gives us about 4-5 extra goals. Again, though that implies NO one else drops below their numbers. 

Just now, JoeSchmoe said:

Imagine if we still had Skinner and Mittelstadt.

We can do that, who are you taking out? 

[LGR4GM]

Let's take out Lafferty and Kubel. 

Now the issue here would be opportunity for other players which might drop their shots down but that gives you about 30ish extra goals after you account for 10-12 of Byram's goals disappearing too. Gives us about 240goals at forward (again this is a rough estimate).

Edited August 22 by LGR4GM

[JoeSchmoe]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Let's take out Lafferty and Kubel. 

Now the issue here would be opportunity for other players which might drop their shots down but that gives you about 30ish extra goals after you account for 10-12 of Byram's goals disappearing too. Gives us about 240goals at forward (again this is a rough estimate).

Whoever we had in the Byram spot would get a few goals too presumably.

[LGR4GM]

@GASabresIUFAN I adjusted numbers based on your thoughts. Here are the updated totals. 

 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Whoever we had in the Byram spot would get a few goals too presumably.

Yes, but you can just cancel them out because Skinner and Mitts in this scenario are taking opportunities away from the other forwards which probably equates to let's say 10 goals. I was tempted to do this by g/60 but it gets confusing so sh and sh% was what I went with. 

Updating to Skinner and Mitts puts us at 240g compared to 202 without him in the forwards but takes us down to about 38goals in the defense. Mitts and Skinner on this team probably = playoffs. There is more scoring depth in that scenario. Again, we are seeing that Buffalo really needs 1 more forward to comfortably put us on a scoring pace that should equal playoffs. Right now even with GA's adjustments, we are still sitting at around 250-260 goals which is most likely just outside the playoffs or we just squeak in. I don't like the margin for error. 

[DarthEbriate]

To me, the forward scoring is down to two things: power play and the RFAs.

Will the power play have NHL-level pace, movement, and varied setups? Or will it just be the setup TNT show with the occasional other scripted play that works once/month? Will they be able to win PP faceoffs for immediate zone time, or will they spend the first 20 seconds retrieving and getting the puck back up ice to attack? That's where the majority of goals could come from.

Individually, Peterka and Quinn have the ability, will get the minutes, and have contract motivation, to take their points to levels we've not seen from either. 

For Peterka, he'll get the chance at 1st line minutes, presumably with a healthy TNT (because he's not on PK1) and Tuch. In JJP's contract year, can he outscore a normal-Skinner year [not necessarily a Skinner's career year in 2022-23]? I think yes. Plus, he's taller than Skinner. JJP needs to balance out his streaks so he doesn't disappear from the score sheet in December and February as he did last season. 

For Quinn, he'll drive whichever line he's on. Will he take the initiative to shoot more? Or will Zucker or Cozens be able to get on hot streaks on their finishes of his playmaking? (or Benson, but I think he's bottom 6 this season.)

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

if I give Tuch a 11.5% and bump up Byram to 105 shots that gives us about 4-5 extra goals. Again, though that implies NO one else drops below their numbers. 

I am also worried that some may slip, but considering how low in production that new bottom six was last year, i’m not looking for to much regression there or from JJP after his breakout year..  I also believe most of top guys lost production partially from the stagnant PP.  Any uptick in the PP should help list most of the boats in the top 6 forwards.

I have looked at how we get to 265-270 a few times this offseason.  I wrote this yesterday in the big picture thread.

Quote

 

Here is an optimistic post about the possible upside for the offense.   I wrote in my earlier post that the Sabres would need to score about 265-270 goals to reasonably expect to make the playoffs.  When we scored 300+ a few years ago we had a poor defense and terrible goaltending. The defense is marginally better, but the goaltending should be a strength, so I’m going to assume we keep our GA to 250 or less.

The projected 21 skater lineup scored 227 goals last season.  The forwards scored 180 and our defenders chipped in another 47.  So where should we look for another 40 goals?

1) Quinn - Quinn scored 9 goals in 27 games last season - If he stays healthy I think 27 goals is a fair but possibly low estimate (+18)

2) Benson - Assuming he plays on the 2nd line, his production should jump in year 2 from 11g 19a to reasonably 18g 25a. (+7).  To show what’s possible, JJP went from 12g 20a in year 1 to 28g 22a in year 2.  I don’t think Benson is a JJP level goal scorer, but he is probably a much better playmaker.

3) TNT - Tage has averaged 38 goals the last 3 seasons, last year he scored 29, but came on after being hurt early.  I don’t expect him to shoot 15%+ like he did in 21/22 or 22/23, but a rebound to closer to that number seems reasonable, thus about 35 goals as a projection.  (+6)

4) Cozens - He isn’t as good as his career year (31 goals), but he isn’t as bad as last season (18 goals) split the difference for 25 goals (+7)

That’s 38 additional goals from 4 players.  Any improvement from Tuch or JJP would add to that projection.  I don’t expect much if any increase in production from the 3rd (34 goals - Zucker, McLeod, Greenway) or 4th (29 goals - Kubel, Krebs, Lafferty, Malenstyn) lines or really from the defense.  I can see Dahlin slipping a little from 20, but possible increases from Power (6) and Byram (11) to offset any decrease from Dahlin.  The rest of the defense is a goal scoring void.  

The biggest issue is health.  Keeping the majority of our top 6 forward and top 3 D healthy this season will go along way toward getting to the playoffs.  The drop off in talent from our top 6 forwards and top 3 defenders is huge.  

 

I also posted a similar analysis to yours in another @dudacek thread earlier this offseason.

Ultimately, the road map to 265-270 is going fall on rebounds from Tage and Cozens, a healthy and productive Quinn and continued improvement from Benson.  The key to a Tage rebound is the PP.  His PP goals feel from 20 to 9 last season.  As to the rest of the roster, I think we could see increase from Byram (who needs to play a full season) and Tuch, but also decreases from Zucker and McLeod who won’t be playing with Draistal this season.  I’m not expecting anymore than 60 to 65 goals from our bottom 7 forwards. 

Edited August 22 by GASabresIUFAN

[Taro T]

Said this back at the end of June and am sticking by it.

Am expecting them to score between 260 & 270.  (264 as the EV)

Peterka - Thompson - Tuch - 85 (28-35-22)

Benson-Cozens-Quinn - 75 (18-22-35)

Zucker-McLeod-Greenway -40 (16-12-12)

Malinstyn(sp?)-Fogarty-Lafferty-Aubel-Kube - 24 (8-8-8)

Defense - 40

(Dahlin 18. The other 5 - 22)

Yes, some won't get there & some will be injured.  But that doesn't include ANY goals from those not in the top 18.  They should pot another 10-20 which'll offset some overly optimistic predictions.  And with reasonable health, Tuch & Cozens at a minimum could pot quite a few more.

So, yeah, they have enough offense.

AND they still might bring in a W that drops Benson out of the top 6.  If they do that, it makes it all that much more likely that this is realistic.  Plus a healthy Thompson could easily score 10 more than predicted more than a month and a half ago.

Edited August 22 by Taro T
D'oh!!!

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Said this back at the end of June and am sticking by it.

Am expecting them to score between 260 & 270.  (264 as the EV)

Peterka - Thompson - Tuch - 85 (28-35-22)

Benson-Cozens-Quinn - 75 (18-22-35)

Zucker-McLeod-Greenway -40 (16-12-12)

Malinstyn(sp?)-Fogarty-Aubel-Kube - 24 (8-8-8)

Defense - 40

(Dahlin 18. The other 5 - 22)

Yes, some won't get there & some will be injured.  But that doesn't include ANY goals from those not in the top 18.  They should pot another 10-20 which'll offset some overly optimistic predictions.  And with reasonable health, Tuch & Cozens at a minimum could pot quite a few more.

So, yeah, they have enough offense.

AND they still might bring in a W that drops Benson out of the top 6.  If they do that, it makes it all that much more likely that this is realistic.  Plus a healthy Thompson could easily score 10 more than predicted more than a month and a half ago.

I definitely believe the potential is there, also it’s Lafferty on the 4th line, where’d Fogarty come from lol. Id adjust the goals a bit but I can easily predict 260 GF barring catastrophic injuries to key players 

Edited August 22 by thewookie1

[dudacek]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I didn't average their first 200 games. Also, your theory is everyone gets better, they don't. 

So I took a look at 10 prominent recent Sabres — which absolutely doesn't prove anything I just wanted to see where they trended.

It seemed too much work to find and track their actual first and 2nd 200 games, so I proxied it.

These are each player's average goal totals over their first 3 years as an NHL regular prorated over 82 games, followed by years 4 through 6 prorated over 82 games

• Eichel 29 32
• Reinhart 22 28
• Okposo 21 23
• Skinner 28 28
• Tuch 18 30
• O’Reilly 14 22
• Rodrigues 11 19
• Girgensons 12 7
• Larson 9 8
• Dahlin 7 16

 

Edited August 22 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

So I took a look at 10 prominent recent Sabres — which absolutely doesn't prove anything I just wanted to see where they trended.

It seemed too much work to find and track their actual first and 2nd 200 games, so I proxied it.

These are each player's average goal totals over their first 3 years as an NHL regular prorated over 82 games, followed by years 4 through 6 prorated over 82 games

• Eichel 29 32
• Reinhart 22 28
• Okposo 21 23
• Skinner 28 28
• Tuch 18 30
• O’Reilly 14 22
• Rodrigues 11 19
• Girgensons 12 7
• Larson 9 8
• Dahlin 7 16

 

Methodology is flawed. Take the rookie year out completely. 

I'd do years 2-3 and then their last 3 years (whatever that looks like)

Also you can take Eichel and Reinhart out, they did exactly what 2nd overall players should. Dropping Reinhart is still one of the dumbest decisions Adams made and I like Levi.