Judging the off-season: the big picture

[DarthEbriate]

30 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

The closer the season gets, the more dread I feel.

Regarding the Sabres, I mean.

The approach of the NHL season isn't making me feel increased dread about life in general.

Not yet, anyway.

--I saw a city hockey stadium by the lake.
++Mmm. A team's fans you have there.
-- They were in pain!
++It is the future you see.
--The future? Will they die make the playoffs?
++Difficult to see.

----

As to Skinner, last season was accountability. Other players out-earned him for playing time. HCDG learned just as HCRK and HC RB'A had learned before him. But this offseason was strictly accounting.

----

Accountability in the offseason would be the leadership of this team being leaders and announcing that yes, EEE is the sole guiding principle and not GMKA's assertion that's he free to spend as he feels fit, and certainly not that "the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup."

[Derrico]

On 8/20/2024 at 12:17 PM, Brawndo said:

The Red Wings, with Seider, Raymond and Berggren needing new deals, most likely move the Sabres to 7th on the list. 
 

Add not being able to convince the owner to spend additional money towards building a playoff team to the list of complaints about Adams. 
 

Plus it should be changed from the 3 Es to the 2 Es because they sure as hell haven’t been effective. 

I legit don’t understand why he won’t spend more.  I truly think he is interested in the team and wants them to win.  Every prospect summer camp there he is in the box with KA. He’s always in the videos behind the scenes at the draft and free agency.  He seems to be a big fan and is involved yet it’s bizzare here he is near the league bottom in payroll again.  Not saying to pay Ehroff money but there’s additions that I’m sure could be made to strengthen the team today with how tight some teams are to the cap.

[Broken Ankles]

29 minutes ago, Derrico said:

I legit don’t understand why he won’t spend more.  I truly think he is interested in the team and wants them to win.  Every prospect summer camp there he is in the box with KA. He’s always in the videos behind the scenes at the draft and free agency.  He seems to be a big fan and is involved yet it’s bizzare here he is near the league bottom in payroll again.  Not saying to pay Ehroff money but there’s additions that I’m sure could be made to strengthen the team today with how tight some teams are to the cap.

The average NFL team appreciated 10% last year.  So TPegs net value of the Bills grew between 350 and 400 million dollars in one year.  Not even factoring the growth of his other assets.  And yet he can’t spend $8m more on this team.  Incomprehensible. 

[Sabres73]

I think it's just that KA is holding his cards for now - it's a long season and there may be better players available at some point. Be patient and make the right deal.

[French Collection]

5 hours ago, Sabres73 said:

I think it's just that KA is holding his cards for now - it's a long season and there may be better players available at some point. Be patient and make the right deal.

We are all impatient and want to see a move to help the top 6.

I hope this is his plan, training camps to start and see which teams need to shed salary that he could absorb.

Maybe a guy like Ehlers gets moved, not that the Jets are in salary trouble, but he refuses an extension.

[That Aud Smell]

If Terry continues to operate with an internal cap and a feckless Opie as GM — and the team continues to finish in that 85 point (or fewer) range — he will soon be taking a run at the title of Buffalo’s all-time worst pro sports franchise owner. 

And that includes the Rigases and whoever moved the Braves to California (Snyder?).

7 hours ago, Sabres73 said:

I think it's just that KA is holding his cards for now - it's a long season and there may be better players available at some point. Be patient and make the right deal.

Whither such faith? Such hope?

I’m sort of jealous.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, French Collection said:

We are all impatient and want to see a move to help the top 6.

I hope this is his plan, training camps to start and see which teams need to shed salary that he could absorb.

Maybe a guy like Ehlers gets moved, not that the Jets are in salary trouble, but he refuses an extension.

No we are not. Stop letting someone else frame this as fans being impatient. The GM has failed for 4 years to put together a playoff roster due to his own incompetence, blind faith, and mild handcuff from the owner. Demanding better is not impatience and the poster who suggested otherwise is IMPO rediculous. "13 years guys but be patient" 

NSFW

 

[dudacek]

33 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No we are not. Stop letting someone else frame this as fans being impatient. The GM has failed for 4 years to put together a playoff roster due to his own incompetence, blind faith, and mild handcuff from the owner. Demanding better is not impatience and the poster who suggested otherwise is IMPO rediculous. "13 years guys but be patient" 

NSFW

 

It really comes down to the bold doesn't it?

Are Tage/Tuch/Cozens/Quinn/Peterka/Benson Dahlin/Power/Byram/Samuelsson Levi/Luukkonen the players Adams seems to think they are?

Or are they the players we watched last year?

Edited August 29 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It really comes down to the bold doesn't it?

Are Tage/Tuch/Cozens/Quinn/Peterka/Benson Dahlin/Power/Byram/Samuelsson Levi/Luukkonen the players Adams seems to think they are?

Or are they the players we watched last year?

I would guess that they are something in-between last year and 2022. It is why we sit so precariously on the bubble. 

To quote another movie, "sometimes people deserve to have their faith rewarded." 

 

[Pimlach]

20 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

The closer the season gets, the more dread I feel.

Regarding the Sabres, I mean.

The approach of the NHL season isn't making me feel increased dread about life in general.

Not yet, anyway.

Nothing about the Sabres, or the NHL, should make you feel dread about life in general.   This is a game, and we are spectators and fans.  

[Archie Lee]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It really comes down to the bold doesn't it?

Are Tage/Tuch/Cozens/Quinn/Peterka/Benson Dahlin/Power/Byram/Samuelsson Levi/Luukkonen the players Adams seems to think they are?

Or are they the players we watched last year?

I am excited about the future for the core players that you reference. I am not excited about their prospects for leading the team to the playoffs this year. It could happen and I am not totally without optimism about the season (I like the bottom 6 changes; I think the coaching change will, at the very least have a short term impact on attitude/intensity; I think the young core is talented enough). I just can’t project playoffs when we have so much youth at the top of the lineup.

There are just too many things that need to happen that have either never happened before (Benson and Quinn producing like top 6 players over a full season, Samuelsson living up to his contract, Byram putting it together in a Sabre uniform, Levi playing like an NHL goalie for longer than a 3 week stretch) or that have only happened once before (Cozens’s, Peterka’s and UPL’s singular breakout seasons), for me to believe they are ready for the next step. 

[CallawaySabres]

I actually wondered today if I am even interested in this season coming up. If this stench has penetrated an absolute die-hard fan, what is the feeling around casual Sabres fans? Not in a MILLION years would I have ever thought so little about a Buffalo sports team. I hope that winning brings back the spark but wow, it's just an absolute shame that this organization has sunk so low.

After FINALLY giving up my season tickets, I am sure they will probably make the playoffs. My daughter (who just loves this team) is heading off to college in 4 days and never saw one single playoff game. It's really hard to believe that they have not only been bad, but one of the worst (and most boring) teams for so incredibly long. 

I don't see any avenue for this team to be better than 500 but who knows, maybe all of the stars align and that arena will actually wake up from the slumber. If these youngsters don't perform this year, it has to be time to go the trade route. Florida has been masterful at that but a capable GM will be needed. Too bad we never interviewed their guy for the job🤣

[Night Train]

Ruff waking up the roster of players who had down years.

Was the 91 point season just a lucky year ? Were many of those players lost under DG or tuning him out last year ?  Are they baby soft ? 

So I give this a chance. Watch and learn.  

[nfreeman]

IMHO, Owen Power is a guy who has significant potential to affect the big picture but who isn't the subject of much discussion.

Power, who turns 22 in November, played 24 min per game as a rookie, scoring 4-31-35 and then 23 min last year, with 6-27-33.  Disconcertingly, he was 16th on the team in xGF%, with 44.4% (Dahlin was 1st with 54.7%).  Among NHL defensemen with at least 1000 minutes last year, that xGF% was #116 in the NHL (Dahlin was #28).  Power was a bit better as a rookie at #87, with a 47.5% xGF%. 

Either way, that number stinks.

OTOH, his possession metrics were better -- CF% as a rookie was pretty good at 51.7%, with FF% close to break-even at 49.7%, although both declined last year to 49.7% CF% and 48.6% FF%.

Power has great size, which he doesn't use to play any kind of physical game, and IMHO excellent offensive hockey IQ and passing skills.  But it's hard to avoid the conclusion, based on eye test and the above numbers, that he needs to improve his D-zone game substantially.

He's still a very young player.  Let's see what Lindy can do with him.

 

[Archie Lee]

33 minutes ago, Night Train said:

Ruff waking up the roster of players who had down years.

Was the 91 point season just a lucky year ? Were many of those players lost under DG or tuning him out last year ?  Are they baby soft ? 

So I give this a chance. Watch and learn.  

I’m not at all downplaying the coaching issues we saw last year (poor starts, lack of consistent engagement, really bad PP), but there is also a possibility that Granato squeezed as much as could be squeezed out of the 22-23 team and that the 23-24 results are just closer to the reality of what the team he had to work with was capable of. 

Edited August 29 by Archie Lee

[dudacek]

51 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

IMHO, Owen Power is a guy who has significant potential to affect the big picture but who isn't the subject of much discussion.

Power, who turns 22 in November, played 24 min per game as a rookie, scoring 4-31-35 and then 23 min last year, with 6-27-33.  Disconcertingly, he was 16th on the team in xGF%, with 44.4% (Dahlin was 1st with 54.7%).  Among NHL defensemen with at least 1000 minutes last year, that xGF% was #116 in the NHL (Dahlin was #28).  Power was a bit better as a rookie at #87, with a 47.5% xGF%. 

Either way, that number stinks.

OTOH, his possession metrics were better -- CF% as a rookie was pretty good at 51.7%, with FF% close to break-even at 49.7%, although both declined last year to 49.7% CF% and 48.6% FF%.

Power has great size, which he doesn't use to play any kind of physical game, and IMHO excellent offensive hockey IQ and passing skills.  But it's hard to avoid the conclusion, based on eye test and the above numbers, that he needs to improve his D-zone game substantially.

He's still a very young player.  Let's see what Lindy can do with him.

 

Curious where you got those numbers. Stuff I've seen showed Power ranking highly on his possession numbers offensively,  not so good on the defending side, and overall slightly positive.

NHL.com had Power at 51.5% Corsi, if i remember correctly.

The need for Power to take a leap for the Sabres to do the same is certainly spot on, as far as I'm concerned.

Brian Duff has been pushing it a lot this summer.

[nfreeman]

30 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Curious where you got those numbers. Stuff I've seen showed Power ranking highly on his possession numbers offensively,  not so good on the defending side, and overall slightly positive.

NHL.com had Power at 51.5% Corsi, if i remember correctly.

The need for Power to take a leap for the Sabres to do the same is certainly spot on, as far as I'm concerned.

Brian Duff has been pushing it a lot this summer.

XGF% is from moneypuck.  CF% and FF% are from hockey reference.  

[mjd1001]

3 hours ago, Night Train said:

Ruff waking up the roster of players who had down years.

Was the 91 point season just a lucky year ? Were many of those players lost under DG or tuning him out last year ?  Are they baby soft ? 

So I give this a chance. Watch and learn.  

Ruff is the wildcard, at least for the first 20 games or so.

I think he is a good coach, a really good coach, I'm happy with the hire.  But, how will each player respond to his style?

I expect the first 20 games to be rough, I expect they to start to play very well after that.  But what I also expect is there might be a player or two that we don't think much of that will have a major role, but also one of the top 5-8 players here now that totally underperform.

Overall, I just can't wait for the season to start. I don't love they are starting overseas this year, and HATE it is against New Jersey (I expect them to have an 0-2 start, I think Jersey is that good), but overall I have a lot of anticipation for the season as a whole. lets get started.

Edited August 29 by mjd1001

[That Aud Smell]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Nothing about the Sabres, or the NHL, should make you feel dread about life in general.   This is a game, and we are spectators and fans.  

I infer that you took my post more literally than I intended it.

[That Aud Smell]

2 hours ago, CallawaySabres said:

I don't see any avenue for this team to be better than 500 but who knows

@deluca67 .500?

(also, great post. thanks. good luck to your daughter.)

[Pimlach]

33 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Ruff is the wildcard, at least for the first 20 games or so.

I think he is a good coach, a really good coach, I'm happy with the tire.  But, how will each player respond to his style?

I expect the first 20 games to be rough, I expect they to start to play very well after that.  But what I also expect is there might be a player or two that we don't think much of that will have a major role, but also one of the top 5-8 players here now that totally underperform.

Overall, I just can't wait for the season to start. I don't love they are starting overseas this year, and HATE it is against New Jersey (I expect them to have an 0-2 start, I think Jersey is that good), but overall I have a lot of anticipation for the season as a whole. lets get started.

OR - Ruff will have them chomping at the bit to beat NJ, and they do it, and they get off to a good start.   

Then the key will be adjustments as the season wears on. 

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

IMHO, Owen Power is a guy who has significant potential to affect the big picture but who isn't the subject of much discussion.

Power, who turns 22 in November, played 24 min per game as a rookie, scoring 4-31-35 and then 23 min last year, with 6-27-33.  Disconcertingly, he was 16th on the team in xGF%, with 44.4% (Dahlin was 1st with 54.7%).  Among NHL defensemen with at least 1000 minutes last year, that xGF% was #116 in the NHL (Dahlin was #28).  Power was a bit better as a rookie at #87, with a 47.5% xGF%. 

Either way, that number stinks.

OTOH, his possession metrics were better -- CF% as a rookie was pretty good at 51.7%, with FF% close to break-even at 49.7%, although both declined last year to 49.7% CF% and 48.6% FF%.

Power has great size, which he doesn't use to play any kind of physical game, and IMHO excellent offensive hockey IQ and passing skills.  But it's hard to avoid the conclusion, based on eye test and the above numbers, that he needs to improve his D-zone game substantially.

He's still a very young player.  Let's see what Lindy can do with him.

 

Great info here. 

I think there was a sophomore slump, and there were many players on this team that never really got going last season.   I point my finger at the coaches for that.  

I just think that Power must get more involved in the game physically, and become more invested in the games outcome, and then points and the rest will take care of itself.   Experience should help him and hopefully he meshes well with Ruff.  

 

[Porous Five Hole]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

IMHO, Owen Power is a guy who has significant potential to affect the big picture but who isn't the subject of much discussion.

Power, who turns 22 in November, played 24 min per game as a rookie, scoring 4-31-35 and then 23 min last year, with 6-27-33.  Disconcertingly, he was 16th on the team in xGF%, with 44.4% (Dahlin was 1st with 54.7%).  Among NHL defensemen with at least 1000 minutes last year, that xGF% was #116 in the NHL (Dahlin was #28).  Power was a bit better as a rookie at #87, with a 47.5% xGF%. 

Either way, that number stinks.

OTOH, his possession metrics were better -- CF% as a rookie was pretty good at 51.7%, with FF% close to break-even at 49.7%, although both declined last year to 49.7% CF% and 48.6% FF%.

Power has great size, which he doesn't use to play any kind of physical game, and IMHO excellent offensive hockey IQ and passing skills.  But it's hard to avoid the conclusion, based on eye test and the above numbers, that he needs to improve his D-zone game substantially.

He's still a very young player.  Let's see what Lindy can do with him.

 

 
If there is a “Ruff effect,” the same can be said for Bryam.  I think people were upset with the trade because fans liked Casey M and Bo didn’t show much in his first 18 games…so folks are down on him.  

 

I see a 4th overall guy, super young, that showed hints of brilliance in the playoffs.

He also missed time with various injuries and did not play as well when he came back from them. He should be coming in healthy and with an upgrade in head coach—he could take off.  I expect it. 

[French Collection]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

No we are not. Stop letting someone else frame this as fans being impatient. The GM has failed for 4 years to put together a playoff roster due to his own incompetence, blind faith, and mild handcuff from the owner. Demanding better is not impatience and the poster who suggested otherwise is IMPO rediculous. "13 years guys but be patient" 

NSFW

 

I am willing to give him until the start of the regular season to add another scorer. If nothing is added, even for top 9 depth, then they are risking missing the playoffs and the majority of the fanbase will be wanting KA removed.

[Pimlach]

3 hours ago, Night Train said:

Ruff waking up the roster of players who had down years.

Was the 91 point season just a lucky year ? Were many of those players lost under DG or tuning him out last year ?  Are they baby soft ? 

So I give this a chance. Watch and learn.  

I think DG lost them because of their comments we heard after his firing.  They knew they we not rady to start the season.   They want harder practices for one thing.   They seem to want more accountability.  

Lets face it DG got no help from Adams, and whatever system DG was using (offense first, defense next, etc.) was a failure too.  

Some of the young players have had huge minutes and big responsibilities at a very young age.  I don't think they are baby soft, but they have lacked leadership and mental toughness and they need more leaders to emerge from within.   Who wears the A's and the C are not as important as everyone being on the same page and backing up their teammates.   

2 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

I’m not at all downplaying the coaching issues we saw last year (poor starts, lack of consistent engagement, really bad PP), but there is also a possibility that Granato squeezed as much as could be squeezed out of the 22-23 team and that the 23-24 results are just closer to the reality of what the team he had to work with was capable of. 

I don't think we have yet seen the best of what this core group can do.  I cannot be convinced that Quinn, JJP, Benson, Power, and even Tage and Dahlin have reached their peaks yet.