Judging the off-season: the big picture

[That Aud Smell]

15 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

19 points over 18 games is an ~87 point pace. Am I missing/misreading something?

14 hours ago, dudacek said:

Nope. That's my bad math. Still better, but negligibly.

As I think about it, Adams making a "big" hockey trade that doesn't seem to make much sense and keeps the Sabres on an ~87 point pace is quintessential of the Adams (Pegula) era.

These are dark days, I fear. I just have a bad feeling about things.

I'll call my shot now: 2024-2025 Sabres will make an heroic run to 87 points.

[LGR4GM]

24 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

As I think about it, Adams making a "big" hockey trade that doesn't seem to make much sense and keeps the Sabres on an ~87 point pace is quintessential of the Adams (Pegula) era.

These are dark days, I fear. I just have a bad feeling about things.

I'll call my shot now: 2024-2025 Sabres will make an heroic run to 87 points.

87 points seems like a logical outcome. Even with Quinn and Benson, Buffalo just isn't experienced enough or talented enough. Injuries will happen to someone and that depth replacing it is bad or untested. 

Edited August 21 by LGR4GM

[Weave]

31 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

As I think about it, Adams making a "big" hockey trade that doesn't seem to make much sense and keeps the Sabres on an ~87 point pace is quintessential of the Adams (Pegula) era.

These are dark days, I fear. I just have a bad feeling about things.

I'll call my shot now: 2024-2025 Sabres will make an heroic run to 87 points.

Darcy Regier called his shot.

[That Aud Smell]

49 minutes ago, Weave said:

Darcy Regier called his shot.

And then he and the Sabres just kept on shooting.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

As I think about it, Adams making a "big" hockey trade that doesn't seem to make much sense and keeps the Sabres on an ~87 point pace is quintessential of the Adams (Pegula) era.

These are dark days, I fear. I just have a bad feeling about things.

I'll call my shot now: 2024-2025 Sabres will make an heroic run to 87 points.

That's about what they look like on paper.

If the breakthrough happens, it will happen through growth.

Belief in that strategy is on a bus somewhere near Medicine Hat, along with the a box full of junior hockey scouting reports and Kevin Devine's crushed coffee cup.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here is an optimistic post about the possible upside for the offense.   I wrote in my earlier post that the Sabres would need to score about 265-270 goals to reasonably expect to make the playoffs.  When we scored 300+ a few years ago we had a poor defense and terrible goaltending. The defense is marginally better, but the goaltending should be a strength, so I’m going to assume we keep our GA to 250 or less.

The projected 21 skater lineup scored 227 goals last season.  The forwards scored 180 and our defenders chipped in another 47.  So where should we look for another 40 goals?

1) Quinn - Quinn scored 9 goals in 27 games last season - If he stays healthy I think 27 goals is a fair but possibly low estimate (+18)

2) Benson - Assuming he plays on the 2nd line, his production should jump in year 2 from 11g 19a to reasonably 18g 25a. (+7).  To show what’s possible, JJP went from 12g 20a in year 1 to 28g 22a in year 2.  I don’t think Benson is a JJP level goal scorer, but he is probably a much better playmaker.

3) TNT - Tage has averaged 38 goals the last 3 seasons, last year he scored 29, but came on after being hurt early.  I don’t expect him to shoot 15%+ like he did in 21/22 or 22/23, but a rebound to closer to that number seems reasonable, thus about 35 goals as a projection.  (+6)

4) Cozens - He isn’t as good as his career year (31 goals), but he isn’t as bad as last season (18 goals) split the difference for 25 goals (+7)

That’s 38 additional goals from 4 players.  Any improvement from Tuch or JJP would add to that projection.  I don’t expect much if any increase in production from the 3rd (34 goals - Zucker, McLeod, Greenway) or 4th (29 goals - Kubel, Krebs, Lafferty, Malenstyn) lines or really from the defense.  I can see Dahlin slipping a little from 20, but possible increases from Power (6) and Byram (11) to offset any decrease from Dahlin.  The rest of the defense is a goal scoring void.  

The biggest issue is health.  Keeping the majority of our top 6 forward and top 3 D healthy this season will go along way toward getting to the playoffs.  The drop off in talent from our top 6 forwards and top 3 defenders is huge.  

Edited August 21 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here is an optimistic post about post about the possible upside for the offense.   I wrote in my earlier post that the Sabres would need to score about 265-270 goals to reasonably expect to make the playoffs.  When we scored 300+ a few years ago we had a poor defense and terrible goaltending. The defense is marginally better, but the goaltending should be a strength, so I’m going to assume we keep our GA to 250 or less.

The projected 21 skater lineup scored 227 goals last season.  The forwards scored 180 and our defenders chipped in another 47.  So where should we look for another 40 goals?

1) Quinn - Quinn scored 9 goals in 27 games last season - If he stays healthy I think 27 goals is a fair but possibly low estimate (+18)

2) Benson - Assuming he plays on the 2nd line, his production should jump in year 2 from 11g 19a to reasonably 18g 25a. (+7).  To show what’s possible, JJP went from 12g 20a in year 1 to 28g 22a in year 2.  I don’t think Benson is a JJP level goal scorer, but he is probably a much better playmaker.

3) TNT - Tage has averaged 38 goals the last 3 seasons, last year he scored 29, but came on after being hurt early.  I don’t we can expect him to shoot 15%+ like he did in 21/22 or 22/23, but a rebound to closer to that number seems reasonable, thus about 35 goals as a projection.  (+6)

4) Cozens - He isn’t as good as his career year (31 goals), but he isn’t as bad as last season (18 goals) split the difference for 25 goals (+7)

That’s 38 additional goals from 4 players.  Any improvement from Tuch or JJP would add to that projection.  I don’t expect much if any increase in production from the 3rd or 4th lines or really from the defense.  I can see Dahlin slipping a little from 20, but possible increases from Power (6) and Byram (11) to offset any decrease from Dahlin.  The rest of the defense is a goal scoring void.  

The biggest issue is health.  Keeping the majority of our top 6 forward and top 3 D healthy this season will go along way toward getting to the playoffs.  The drop off in talent from our top 6 forwards and top 3 defenders is huge.  

I don't think anyone would be surprised if any of these guys hit these totals

• Tage 40
• Tuch 30
• Cozens 30
• Peterka 30
• Quinn 30
• Zucker 20
• Benson 15
• McLeod 15
• Dahlin 15
• Byram 10

That's 235 goals from just 10 players. They've got it in them. What would be surprising  is most of them hitting those numbers.

Because I don't think anyone would surprised by any of this either:

• Tage 30
• Tuch 20
• Cozens 20
• Peterka 20
• Quinn 15
• Zucker 15
• Benson 10
• McLeod 10
• Dahlin 10
• Byram 5

That's only 155. They've got that in them too.

[LGR4GM]

56 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don't think anyone would be surprised if any of these guys hit these totals

• Tage 40
• Tuch 30
• Cozens 30
• Peterka 30
• Quinn 30
• Zucker 20
• Benson 15
• McLeod 15
• Dahlin 15
• Byram 10

That's 235 goals from just 10 players. They've got it in them. What would be surprising  is most of them hitting those numbers.

Because I don't think anyone would surprised by any of this either:

• Tage 30
• Tuch 20
• Cozens 20
• Peterka 20
• Quinn 15
• Zucker 15
• Benson 10
• McLeod 10
• Dahlin 10
• Byram 5

That's only 155. They've got that in them too.

I would be surprised if Cozens had 30g. 

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I don't think anyone would be surprised if any of these guys hit these totals

• Tage 40
• Tuch 30
• Cozens 30
• Peterka 30
• Quinn 30
• Zucker 20
• Benson 15
• McLeod 15
• Dahlin 15
• Byram 10

 

I'd be mildly suprised by the first 3.

Unless there is an injury I'll be surprised it Tage doesn't get well OVEr 40 goals.

Tuch and Cozens have 30 in them (they did it 2 seasons ago), but until I see it under Ruff, i'm only seeing about 20 for Cozens and 25 for Tuch.  So, I guess that is close enough that it the DO hit 30 I won't be TOTALLY surprised.

Zucker at 20 to me is also a stretch. Unless he end up being on the PP AND gets top 6 minutes and opportunities, I think he tops out in the teens.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I would be surprised if Cozens had 30g. 

 

19 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'd be mildly suprised by the first 3.

Unless there is an injury I'll be surprised it Tage doesn't get well OVEr 40 goals.

Tuch and Cozens have 30 in them (they did it 2 seasons ago), but until I see it under Ruff, i'm only seeing about 20 for Cozens and 25 for Tuch.  So, I guess that is close enough that it the DO hit 30 I won't be TOTALLY surprised.

Zucker at 20 to me is also a stretch. Unless he end up being on the PP AND gets top 6 minutes and opportunities, I think he tops out in the teens.

Not telling you what to be surprised at, but I didn't pull those numbers out of a hat.

Cozens had 31, Tuch 36, Thompson 47, and Zucker 27, just 2 years ago

I'm not saying we should expect those numbers (actually I was saying the opposite) but objectively they aren't utter fantasy

[mjd1001]

26 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Not telling you what to be surprised at, but I didn't pull those numbers out of a hat.

Cozens had 31, Tuch 36, Thompson 47, and Zucker 27, just 2 years ago

I'm not saying we should expect those numbers (actually I was saying the opposite) but objectively they aren't utter fantasy

it is an interesting discussion.

I'll be interested to see what the over/under odds will be for individual players goals.

Of the above, I'd put Thompson at 46, Tuch at 27, Cozens at 20, Zucker at 15 (a LOT of variables on him though because we have no idea how he will be used)

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

Not telling you what to be surprised at, but I didn't pull those numbers out of a hat.

Cozens had 31, Tuch 36, Thompson 47, and Zucker 27, just 2 years ago

I'm not saying we should expect those numbers (actually I was saying the opposite) but objectively they aren't utter fantasy

Cozens had 31 when he shot at 14.7% on 211shots. 

Cozens typically seems to shoot at 10%ish considering his other years. Now last year he managed just 9% and managed less shots with 200 even. So if I use his career av sh% of 10.4% and toss in 200 shots it gets me... about 21 goals. So either he has 2 years of below average sh% which seems unlikely or he has to up his total by about 100. If Cozens dropped a 22-25g season, I would consider that very successful. If he figured out his shot and drops 30g+ than I would be surprised and very happy. Either he shoots more (by a lot) or he has to improve his shot by about 5%. Hence my response. 

PS. to anyone who tries to the "what about TAGE!" in response. I wrote multiple posts about Tage's sudden increase in scoring and how his sh% was more likely to be in the range for when his points went up. That isn't what is happening here. Cozens has already taken 571 shots in the last 3 years so his sh% is probably starting to stabilize around that 10.4%.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

The Sabres will amass 97 points in the 2024/25 NHL season.

Good enough for 7th in the East.

They will eliminate the 2 seed team from The Great Satan in round 1, as 1st round elimination is the long standing tradition of the team from that terrible place.

We will have a parade to honour the latest cusp (hay, oh @PASabreFan) and add yet another lame banner.

The Sabres will win the second round match against the dastardly Bruins, but will fall in the Conference Final to the eventual cup winner from Florida.

[Scottysabres]

On 8/18/2024 at 2:38 PM, dudacek said:

This is what Adams has done since the trade deadline:

• Mitts -> McLeod
• Skinner -> Zucker
• Okposo -> Lafferty
• Girgensons -> Malenstyn
• Olofsson -> Aube-Kubel
• Erik Johnson -> Byram
• Comrie -> Reimer
• Granato -> Ruff
• [Plus it looks like Jost -> Gilbert in the final roster spot)

Essentially, they’ve switched the coach and turned over about 1/3 of the roster, mostly in the bottom half.

Did the Sabres get better? What still needs to be done?

A fair review will come post 24/25 season. We'll then be able to assess whether the moves towards speed and compete lvl were properly addressed.

As for now, a Star Trek quote comes to mind...."As your teacher, Mr. Spock, is fond of saying, 'I like to think there always are ... possibilities."

[GASabresIUFAN]

https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/40520257/nhl-grades-2024-free-agency-draft-trades-report-cards-offseason#buf

"Buffalo Sabres

Key players added: F Sam Lafferty, F Beck Malenstyn, F Jason Zucker, G James Reimer
Key players lost: F Zemgus Girgensons, F Victor Olofsson, F Jeff Skinner
Remaining cap space: $14.55 million

Coach status: Lindy Ruff is back behind the bench in Buffalo to replace the fired Don Granato. It's Ruff's second go-around with the Sabres after he coached there from 1997-2013, taking Buffalo to the playoffs nine times in that 14-year stretch.

Given the Sabres remain in the longest postseason drought in pro sports since he left, it might not be a coincidence GM Kevyn Adams brought him back into the fold. Buffalo is desperate to be a playoff contender again, and Ruff could have the secret recipe to get them back in the mix.

Overall grade: C. Buffalo hasn't done anything to make its top-six better. In fact, the Sabres arguably got worse by buying out Skinner. Even if Skinner had a down year production-wise and questionable defensive habits, he was a superior option to the the other additions Adams has made to help bolster the Sabres up front.

Zucker and Lafferty are fine depth signings, no doubt. Malenstyn should contribute in the bottom six. But Adams offered up a second-round pick to Washington for him, after Malenstyn's (career-high) 21-point 2023-24?

It's difficult to gauge if Buffalo is truly improved now, or just counting on its well-paid core to be more of what they showed in 2022-23 than in 2023-24. Ruff obviously had a say in how the Sabres have conducted themselves too. Perhaps the Sabres aren't done tinkering this summer."

 

This was written before UPL was re-signed. 

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

A fair review will come post 24/25 season. We'll then be able to assess whether the moves towards speed and compete lvl were properly addressed.

As for now, a Star Trek quote comes to mind...."As your teacher, Mr. Spock, is fond of saying, 'I like to think there always are ... possibilities."

"Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.“

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/40520257/nhl-grades-2024-free-agency-draft-trades-report-cards-offseason#buf

"Buffalo Sabres

Key players added: F Sam Lafferty, F Beck Malenstyn, F Jason Zucker, G James Reimer
Key players lost: F Zemgus Girgensons, F Victor Olofsson, F Jeff Skinner
Remaining cap space: $14.55 million

Coach status: Lindy Ruff is back behind the bench in Buffalo to replace the fired Don Granato. It's Ruff's second go-around with the Sabres after he coached there from 1997-2013, taking Buffalo to the playoffs nine times in that 14-year stretch.

Given the Sabres remain in the longest postseason drought in pro sports since he left, it might not be a coincidence GM Kevyn Adams brought him back into the fold. Buffalo is desperate to be a playoff contender again, and Ruff could have the secret recipe to get them back in the mix.

Overall grade: C. Buffalo hasn't done anything to make its top-six better. In fact, the Sabres arguably got worse by buying out Skinner. Even if Skinner had a down year production-wise and questionable defensive habits, he was a superior option to the the other additions Adams has made to help bolster the Sabres up front.

Zucker and Lafferty are fine depth signings, no doubt. Malenstyn should contribute in the bottom six. But Adams offered up a second-round pick to Washington for him, after Malenstyn's (career-high) 21-point 2023-24?

It's difficult to gauge if Buffalo is truly improved now, or just counting on its well-paid core to be more of what they showed in 2022-23 than in 2023-24. Ruff obviously had a say in how the Sabres have conducted themselves too. Perhaps the Sabres aren't done tinkering this summer."

 

This was written before UPL was re-signed. 

Ya I mean the bolded is what plenty have been saying, myself included. We really are trying to have our cake and eat it, too, attempting to make the playoffs with a self-inflicted boot on our car in the name of economic efficient effective. It can be done, but Ruff will definitely need to be the X-factor 

Imo he’s by far the lynch pin of any success we hope to find this year, the one component more key than any other 

UPL replicating his performance but this time for a full season a close second 

[Wyldnwoody44]

EEE, the drug for me 

Seriously, as soon as Pegula sells the team, we may then make the playoffs. 

Adams is a Trash GM with minimal experience, it's being proven every passing week when we do next to nothing to actually, tangibly improve the team. But hey, he has an Aw shucks smile and demeanor, so yay for that. 

Being up in the Cold Northeast was already a rough sell for players, now any good player has us on the list on par with North Korea "no go zone"

But, we will watch, as we always do, and cross all fingers and toes and hope.... I fear another lost season on the horizon 

[DarthEbriate]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Overall grade: Buffalo hasn't done anything to make its top-six better.

As an offseason, I'd agree this is true. Zucker isn't proven to be better than Benson, depending on which one of them gets top 6 minutes. Benson certainly has a vastly higher ceiling than anything Zucker ever had as a player or prospect. However, 

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Overall grade: In fact, the Sabres arguably got worse by buying out Skinner.

In continuing from the previous sentence (related to the top 6 because it's the same paragraph), this is incorrect. Skinner hadn't been in the top-6 since February based on average TOI. And his linemates, particularly after Mitts was dealt at the deadline, tell us exactly what HCDG thought of him: 3/7 Girgensons-Okposo; 3/12 Krebs-JJP; 4/5 Krebs-Rousek; 4/15 Krebs-Greenway.

JJP and Benson were in the top 6, not Skinner, and it had been that way for about 30 games.

[PerreaultForever]

More than anything I just want this team to get serious about winning and start hating to lose. Competitive on a nightly basis. I do not want to hear anything about "the process" "development" or "future _______________". 

[Pimlach]

3 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

EEE, the drug for me 

Seriously, as soon as Pegula sells the team, we may then make the playoffs. 

Adams is a Trash GM with minimal experience, it's being proven every passing week when we do next to nothing to actually, tangibly improve the team. But hey, he has an Aw shucks smile and demeanor, so yay for that. 

Being up in the Cold Northeast was already a rough sell for players, now any good player has us on the list on par with North Korea "no go zone"

But, we will watch, as we always do, and cross all fingers and toes and hope.... I fear another lost season on the horizon 

I wish I could say you are wrong.  I really am hopeful that this is the year they snap the non-playoff streak.  They will really need the stars to all align for it to happen.  

Pretty soon the franchise could reach a value of 1 billion, maybe Terry cashes out then?   

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

As an offseason, I'd agree this is true. Zucker isn't proven to be better than Benson, depending on which one of them gets top 6 minutes. Benson certainly has a vastly higher ceiling than anything Zucker ever had as a player or prospect. However, 

In continuing from the previous sentence (related to the top 6 because it's the same paragraph), this is incorrect. Skinner hadn't been in the top-6 since February based on average TOI. And his linemates, particularly after Mitts was dealt at the deadline, tell us exactly what HCDG thought of him: 3/7 Girgensons-Okposo; 3/12 Krebs-JJP; 4/5 Krebs-Rousek; 4/15 Krebs-Greenway.

JJP and Benson were in the top 6, not Skinner, and it had been that way for about 30 games.

Skinner finished the season on a 13-game goalless streak.

He scored a hat trick against Seattle, and had 3-point night against Vegas in March.

In the other 34 games to finish out the year, he had 3 goals and 4 assists.

13 points in 36 games of uninspired play as the team needed to get its season back on the line. From its highest-paid veteran.

Pretty sure that's why he's not here any more.

You want accountability, this is what it looks like.

Edited August 27 by dudacek

[Thorny]

On 8/19/2024 at 7:58 AM, dudacek said:

I don’t like the way Skinner plays and think he’s a poor fit for Lindy hockey.

But I’ve never perceived him as a cancer.

Cutting him in order to free up cap and roster space for a better fit made sense to me.

Cutting him just to move on seems cheap and extraordinarily arrogant.

So, which is it? 

38 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Skinner finished the season on a 13-game goalless streak.

He scored a hat trick against Seattle, and had 3-point night against Vegas in March.

In the other 34 games to finish out the year, he had 3 goals and 4 assists.

13 points in 36 games of uninspired play as the team needed to get its season back on the line. From its highest-paid veteran.

Pretty sure that's why he's not here any more.

You want accountability, this is what it looks like.

They didn’t use the money they saved. And as you already said, it’s not addition by subtraction. You had it right the first time, and switched for some reason. They aren’t better simply without the guy, so the theory the aim was accountability in the name of success gets thrown out the window: the team itself wasn’t accountable in utilizing the space gained  

Is it arrogant, or in the name of accountability? You are clearly playing both sides here. Did you change your mind in the last 7 days? 

Edited August 27 by Thorny

[Pimlach]

On 8/21/2024 at 8:28 AM, Weave said:

Darcy Regier called his shot.

Even more impressively than this man did.  

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

So, which is it? 

They didn’t use the money they saved. And as you already said, it’s not addition by subtraction. You had it right the first time, and switched for some reason. They aren’t better simply without the guy, so the theory the aim was accountability in the name of success gets thrown out the window: the team itself wasn’t accountable in utilizing the space gained  

Is it arrogant, or in the name of accountability? You are clearly playing both sides here. Did you change your mind in the last 7 days? 

Can’t Skinner be cut in the name of accountability and, at the same time, the Sabres be cheap and arrogant for not using the cap space saved?

My opinion:

1) I don’t like Skinner’s game, I can see why Lindy doesn’t want him in the top 6, and I won’t miss him as a fan.

2) Skinner is too talented an offensive player to toss aside without having an obvious replacement, or a plan to use the cap space to improve the team.

3) I love Quinn and Benson, but I don’t trust the sample size - or the depth behind them - enough to hand them the keys without a safety net.

My perception of the Sabres opinion:

1) Lindy doesn’t see a role for Skinner, and his play in the 2nd half of the season was enough to sway Adams

2) A demoted Skinner is a distraction detrimental to the culture they want in place next year, and the money saved is at least a nice fringe benefit.

3) Adams was/is overly confident he can trade for a Skinner replacement if Quinn/Benson/Zucker don’t work out.

So I guess I am posting both sides in a way, but I don’t think I’m being inconsistent.

 

Edited August 27 by dudacek