Judging the off-season: the big picture

[R_Dudley]

Sorry, years of futility leaves me feeling one more forward and a solid defensive defenseman addition to feel this is a playoff team. The current roster will need a near perfect core healthy players and solid 2 goaltenders' season to feel they have a legit chance of playoffs.     

[CallawaySabres]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Bottom 5 team means 75 points at best and likely quite a bit less.

Why do you think this team is 10 points worse than last year and 20 worse than 2 years ago?

Honestly, because the teams around them are improving a lot faster than Buffalo. If there is even a minor slip-up in goal, this team is buried. The overall defense will have to improve dramatically for them to have a chance at the 8 spot. 

[JoeSchmoe]

We don't have last year's top scorer Mitts next year. 

Worse yet, Byram was a negative expected goal player on a very strong Av's team. That's very hard to do. He's still young and can improve, but if he was bad on the Av's he could end up being very bad on the Sabres. I think in a large part, the narrative about him as a player is largely dictated by his draft position.

We were 23rd in the league in GF and lost a lot of firepower. Unless the Lindy factor comes through in a big way, there is no way our somewhat improved 4th line makes up the difference.

[Taro T]

15 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

We don't have last year's top scorer Mitts next year. 

Worse yet, Byram was a negative expected goal player on a very strong Av's team. That's very hard to do. He's still young and can improve, but if he was bad on the Av's he could end up being very bad on the Sabres. I think in a large part, the narrative about him as a player is largely dictated by his draft position.

We were 23rd in the league in GF and lost a lot of firepower. Unless the Lindy factor comes through in a big way, there is no way our somewhat improved 4th line makes up the difference.

Having a functional PP will go a long way towards getting back into the pack.  TB led the league with 71 PPG's.  Buffalo was 30th with only 37.  The median would've been 52.

Just gettting those 15 goals that the average PP scored last year would've moved them from 23rd into a tie for 15th.  Having a good but not great PP that would've netted them 60 PP goals would've had them 10th in the league in scoring all else being equal.

The PP isn't going to be absolute garbage this year.

[JoeSchmoe]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Having a functional PP will go a long way towards getting back into the pack.  TB led the league with 71 PPG's.  Buffalo was 30th with only 37.  The median would've been 52.

Just gettting those 15 goals that the average PP scored last year would've moved them from 23rd into a tie for 15th.  Having a good but not great PP that would've netted them 60 PP goals would've had them 10th in the league in scoring all else being equal.

The PP isn't going to be absolute garbage this year.

No Mitts or Skinner on the PP2... That's going to hurt. Skinner had 8 PPG. Not sure of Mitts numbers.

Maybe Quinn stays healthy, and no other key guys go down. How likely is that though?

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

No Mitts or Skinner on the PP2... That's going to hurt. Skinner had 8 PPG. Not sure of Mitts numbers.

Maybe Quinn stays healthy, and no other key guys go down. How likely is that though?

I don’t think personnel is going to be an issue.

Dahlin and Tage are back and they are guys you build a PP around.

Tuch, Cozens, Peterka, Power and Benson were 2, 5, 6, 8, 10 in PP ice time and all have the ability to contribute.

Skinner is the only guy gone from the first unit. In my view he was the unit’s weakest link because of poor passing and give and go skills, and his inability to screen goalies, tip pucks and score from distance.

As far as I’m concerned, Quinn can score from in tight as well as Skinner can, and is a huge upgrade in the other areas of PP play.

Casey was 7th in PP time and Okposo 9th. Byram and Zucker may be better respectively in their slots.

The issue last year wasn’t personnel, it was deployment, and that’s what needs to be fixed.

[mjd1001]

3 hours ago, CallawaySabres said:

Honestly, because the teams around them are improving a lot faster than Buffalo. If there is even a minor slip-up in goal, this team is buried. The overall defense will have to improve dramatically for them to have a chance at the 8 spot. 

I do not think they will be bottom 5. I think/hope they will be at least as good as they were in the 2nd half of last season. They were  24-16-2 after January 1, a 98 point pace.

However, I cannot discount what you are saying about the teams around them.  Ottawa and Detroit have a mix of vets and youth, youth that is getting to the age they should be better. Toronto has their core in their prime.  Same for Florida. Montreal is on the way up for sure. Boston is Boston.  Even in the other division, New Jersey could/should be one of the best teams in the conference, a major jump.  The other teams in the conference that look to be getting better seems a lot more than those getting much worse (Pitt, Wash, MAYBE the Islanders?)

It is possible that the team on the ice this year can be better than last year, even considerably better, without showing much, if any, improvement in the standings.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

No Mitts or Skinner on the PP2... That's going to hurt. Skinner had 8 PPG. Not sure of Mitts numbers.

Maybe Quinn stays healthy, and no other key guys go down. How likely is that though?

Skinner being off the PP is a net positive.  Only scoring 8 goals the entire year when he's the net front guy is attrocious.  There's a reason no coach other than Granato has ever had Skinner regularly on the 1st PP unit.  His passing is subpar.  He doesn't tend to win puck battles.  He doesn't set a screen well.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if the 2nd unit goes to 2 D-men because Dahlin and most of the rest of the PP1 unit will be getting ~1:30-1:40 to start the PP.  They can have Thompson and Peterka at the 1/2 wall with Tuch in the net front role leaving any of Cozens, Quinn, or Benson for the bumper role.

The 2 that don't end up on unit 1 will be on unit 2 along with Zucker and likely Power and Byram.  Could go off the board with Greenway as net front on either unit and McLeod &/or Kulich when he finally becomes an injury call up are also options on unit 2.

Fully expect this team to be top 10 on the PP and even if they don't gel & Thompson has injury issues again they'll absolutely be top 15.  We watched arguably the worst PP this team ever iced in over 50 years of play.  The dead puck era PP was better than last year's abomination.  Only Rolston's crew gives last year's one a run for its money.  When the talent level gets factored in, nobody compares to last year's unit.

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Skinner being off the PP is a net positive.  Only scoring 8 goals the entire year when he's the net front guy is attrocious.  There's a reason no coach other than Granato has ever had Skinner regularly on the 1st PP unit.  His passing is subpar.  He doesn't tend to win puck battles.  He doesn't set a screen well.

Wouldn't be at all surprised if the 2nd unit goes to 2 D-men because Dahlin and most of the rest of the PP1 unit will be getting ~1:30-1:40 to start the PP.  They can have Thompson and Peterka at the 1/2 wall with Tuch in the net front role leaving any of Cozens, Quinn, or Benson for the bumper role.

The 2 that don't end up on unit 1 will be on unit 2 along with Zucker and likely Power and Byram.  Could go off the board with Greenway as net front on either unit and McLeod &/or Kulich when he finally becomes an injury call up are also options on unit 2.

Fully expect this team to be top 10 on the PP and even if they don't gel & Thompson has injury issues again they'll absolutely be top 15.  We watched arguably the worst PP this team ever iced in over 50 years of play.  The dead puck era PP was better than last year's abomination.  Only Rolston's crew gives last year's one a run for its money.  When the talent level gets factored in, nobody compares to last year's unit.

I think that having 4 forwards on the PP is beneficial when you have guys up front that just have SO much more talent than your D-men.  I think this became the trend on many teams simply because the 6th-8th forward might have had better puck handing skills or a better shot (even from the point) than the 3rd or 4th D-man on the team.

But with the Sabres...with Dahlin, and Power, and Byram, that may not be the case. They might be better off with 2 D-men back there rather than having a forward in that position.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I think that having 4 forwards on the PP is beneficial when you have guys up front that just have SO much more talent than your D-men.  I think this became the trend on many teams simply because the 6th-8th forward might have had better puck handing skills or a better shot (even from the point) than the 3rd or 4th D-man on the team.

But with the Sabres...with Dahlin, and Power, and Byram, that may not be the case. They might be better off with 2 D-men back there rather than having a forward in that position.

If Lindy is running his top PP out for 90 seconds each penalty, I really hope Thompson, Quinn, Byram and Dahlin are 4 of the guys on it.

The unit desperately needs a left-handed pass/shoot/move option opposite Tage and Bo has that skill set.

[Night Train]

Seemed the emphasis wound up being culture change with the new coach and 4th line additions for the most part. Targeted trade options may have blocked a move to Buffalo. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Option 1.

I think the Sabres will be fine.  This is 100% a Lindy Ruff team now.

I think KA has done well.

He has really upgraded the bottom 6 and it really did not cost anything.

He made a hockey trade - a top 6 forward for a top 4 dman.

He upgraded the goaler backup situation - Levi can play mostly in Rochester and there is not likely to be a disaster in Buffalo when 6K has to rest.

The D is better.

The 'core' isa nother year older and slowly turning into vets - I see that Dylan is skating with some highly regarded vets from around the league and not in Whitehorse - not that ther is anything wrong with Whitehorse.

I still think that buying out Skinner was a mistake - they have not replaced his 30+ goals (at least not yet, but who is out there?).

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

My feelings about Adams are the same as always; he never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity.  For the 3rd offseason in a row he had an opportunity to make a couple significant upgrades to his roster to get the team over the hump.  Instead he continue to play on the margins. When we needed legit goaltending he failed to keep Ullmark, failed to acquire a legit starter but instead gave us fringe players like Anderson, Subban, Tokarski, and Comrie.  We have needed partners for Dahlin and Power for years as well as defensively strong D.  Instead he gave us Lyubushkin, Johnson, Clague, Gilbert, Stillman and Clifton.  None of which were suitable partners for our top guys and none were better than 3rd pairing players and most were just roster filler.  

This offseason is more of the same.  He has still failed to acquire any good defensive D who can play in our top 4.  Instead he acquired a 3rd high skill offensive D, whose early returns show him as an ill fit with Dahlin or Power and suspect defensively.

He also downgraded the skill level of the forward group.  He shipped out Skinner and Mitts sending away 40-50 goals and 100-120 points.  They were replaced with McLeod and Zucker who scored about 25 goals and 60 points last season. 

His arguably positive change was to remake the 4th line to a faster more physical group, unfortunately with only a marginal upgrade in scoring.  

This offseason so far, IMHO, will be remembered, unless the team makes the playoffs, for KAs continued inability to attract good talent to Buffalo.  The same excuses for failure echoed all offseason.  The price was too high, the player wouldn’t wave his NTC, the player wouldn’t sign an extension etc….  

All that said there is a chance this team can make the playoffs.  Despite being in the bottom 5 again HDCA, UPL’s good season helped the Sabres give up around 240 goals against.  If he and his backup (Levi or Reimer) can repeat that performance then the team has a chance.  However, they will need to stay healthy, and get rebounds in performance from Tuch, Tage and Cozens plus further development from Benson, JJP and Quinn.  They also need to get the PP going.  Ultimately they will need to score 265-270 goals.  Not impossible, but everything will have to go right. 

Edited August 20 by GASabresIUFAN

[Mr Peabody]

Question.   Do you think Lindy will play what we are calling the 4th line additions as a 4th line?  Or, intersperse them among the lines to add some size and muscle to our scoring lines?  

[LGR4GM]

Adams has not done enough. This team might make the playoffs but it won't do anything once it gets there. There is not enough depth, they are still insanely young (detroit has 5 guys 25 and under and Buffalo has like 12), and I shedding skinner without using that money is just dumb. 

[B-U-F-F-A-L-O]

On 8/18/2024 at 10:53 AM, dudacek said:

The Sabres parted ways with their highest-paid player Jeff Skinner, deciding they were better off paying him $14M over the next 6 years to play elsewhere than keeping him on the roster for another 3 years for $22M.

The team implied they were moving him off the top line and didn’t see Skinner as a good fit lower down the lineup. They signed Jason Zucker to a 1-year, $5M deal as his roster replacement and have yet to spend the money they saved under the cap by cutting him.

What do you think about the decision to cut Jeff Skinner, and what kind of impact will it have on the coming season?

F*** Jeff Skinner.  The guy is a hockey team poison.  Benson, Rosen and Kulich are right at the cusp of taking his job anyway. It was an incredibly stupid signing by JBOT….. It’s time for KA’s kids to take over….We are going to play, smart, two-way hockey that wins in the NHL….

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, B-U-F-F-A-L-O said:

F*** Jeff Skinner.  The guy is a hockey team poison.  Benson, Rosen and Kulich are right at the cusp of taking his job anyway. It was an incredibly stupid signing by JBOT….. It’s time for KA’s kids to take over….We are going to play, smart, two-way hockey that wins in the NHL….

Benson might be, but to assume a Rookie like Rosen or Kulich can drop 30ish goals and 30ish assists as a rookie is highly questionable. 

[mjd1001]

49 minutes ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

Option 1.

I think the Sabres will be fine.  This is 100% a Lindy Ruff team now.

I think KA has done well.

He has really upgraded the bottom 6 and it really did not cost anything.

He made a hockey trade - a top 6 forward for a top 4 dman.

He upgraded the goaler backup situation - Levi can play mostly in Rochester and there is not likely to be a disaster in Buffalo when 6K has to rest.

The D is better.

The 'core' isa nother year older and slowly turning into vets - I see that Dylan is skating with some highly regarded vets from around the league and not in Whitehorse - not that ther is anything wrong with Whitehorse.

I still think that buying out Skinner was a mistake - they have not replaced his 30+ goals (at least not yet, but who is out there?).

 

I agree with most of what you said above...but I could go either way on the Skinner part.

I probably would have kept Skinner for one more year.  I defended him quite a bit last year on this forum...but....

How much of a loss is it?  He's 32, going on 33  this year, and it looked like last year (2nd half) the 'decline' with age may be starting.  Over the last 3 seasons, Skinner has scored goals at a 32 goal-per-82-game pace.  He has done that with first line opportunities getting just under 17 minutes of ice time.

Jason Zucker is 32, has scored goals at a 21-22 goal pace per 82 games over the last 3 seasons, doing so with about 10%-15% less ice time than Skinner and not always being on the PP or with the top line. 

So, a guy scores at about 10 goals less per year pace, but maybe give him Skinners linemates and Skinners opportunities and ice time and that difference is less than 10 goals.  Add to that you are paying him less money, and he MAY bring other things (maybe they view him as a better worker, more willing to enter the defensive zone), plus while Zucker isn't 'fast', he is faster skating than Skinner.

So maybe I'm reaching, but maybe you give up the 'up to' 10 goals per year you lose in Skinner, but replace it with something you think you need more. And that is just comparing Zucker to Skinner. Maybe Skinner's 16-17 minutes of ice time will be mostly replaced with additional ice time for Peterka, Quinn, and Benson, and you might not actually lose ANY offense because it will be replaced by other young guys chipping in even more with more opportunities?

[GASabresIUFAN]

28 minutes ago, Mr Peabody said:

Question.   Do you think Lindy will play what we are calling the 4th line additions as a 4th line?  Or, intersperse them among the lines to add some size and muscle to our scoring lines?  

No. They don’t have the talent to play with our top players. 

 

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Benson might be, but to assume a Rookie like Rosen or Kulich can drop 30ish goals and 30ish assists as a rookie is highly questionable. 

Especially when you consider that better players, Quinn and JJP, only scored 30+ points total as rookies.

[Pimlach]

On 8/18/2024 at 1:38 PM, dudacek said:

This is what Adams has done since the trade deadline:

• Mitts -> McLeod
• Skinner -> Zucker
• Okposo -> Lafferty
• Girgensons -> Malenstyn
• Olofsson -> Aube-Kubel
• Erik Johnson -> Byram
• Comrie -> Reimer
• Granato -> Ruff
• [Plus it looks like Jost -> Gilbert in the final roster spot)

Essentially, they’ve switched the coach and turned over about 1/3 of the roster, mostly in the bottom half.

Did the Sabres get better? What still needs to be done?

Well looking at the moves this way is quite interesting. 

Mitts > McLeod ;   but at least McLeod brings top end speed and faceoffs and playoff experience

Skinner > Zucker as a pure goal scorer;  but at least you can say Zucker is a better 2 way player and more versatile and brings playoff experience

Lafferty > Okposso;   Lafferty brings more of what we need, at this stage of his career Kyle is essentially done

Girgs - Malenstyn;    this is a wait and see move, they must really like Malenstyn,  

Abe-Kubel > Olofsson;   Olofsson is the more skilled scorer but Abe-Kubel brings much more of what we need 

Byram > E Johnson (and R Johnson and Bryson); not much to discuss here

Riemer > Comrie ;  He better be 

Ruff > Granato;  Granato and his staff were badly exposed last season and every coach in the league knew how to play Buffalo by the end of the 22-23 season

Add this up and you can see a step forward assuming:  (1) Byram is actually good; (2) Zucker and McLeod can bring some offense along with their experience; and (3) the 4th liners click and take some starch out of the opponent.  This alone is not a lot.  

Ruff is a bigger key.  Improving the PP, improving the PK, improving home ice readiness and record, win by locking down on leads.  All things Ruff can do, and things that he needs to bring back to Buffalo. 

Still, given all this, the roster changes are not that deep and a playoff season will more likely hinge on strong seasons from UPL, Thompson, Dahlin, Tuch, Cozens, and Power, along with continued growth of JJP, Quinn, and Benson.   

Edited August 20 by Pimlach

[nfreeman]

@dudacek -- great series of threads, as always. 

I'm not sure how this got merged with the Skinner thread and I don't think I have the ability to undo it -- sorry.

As for the substance, here are my 2 cents:

- I don't think Skinner was unloaded to save cash, although I am dismayed at the prospect of the Sabres being a low-payroll team yet again.  Even if cheapness isn't the reason for the low payroll, the Sabres need to improve their reputation around the league, and having a low payroll has the exact opposite effect.

- Anyway, I think Skinner was unloaded because Lindy, and possibly KA, determined that he was a net negative and that if they are going to be serious about winning, he needed to go.

- Overall, IMHO the big picture is that the Sabres are a young team who last year were dying for a real coach and instead took advantage of having a substitute teacher and goofed around all year.  Now they have a real coach.  I expect Lindy to have a huge impact.  They are not going to come out and mail it in at home any longer.  It's just not going to happen.  Their focus and intensity is going to be much, much better and more consistent.

- I also expect the new bottom 6 to play a much tougher, harder game than their predecessors did, and for their work to energize the crowd and the rest of the team.  That, combined with resurgent offensive firepower from TT, Tuch, Cozens and Quinn and continued growth from JJP, will eliminate the blah mediocrity that characterized the team last year.

So, like in every offseason during this whole misbegotten era -- I'm optimistic!

 

[Mr Peabody]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

No. They don’t have the talent to play with our top players. 

 

They have size, speed and I’m guessing are better in the corners than most of our perceived top 9.  Get the puck to the scorers and be obnoxious in the crease would be a nice change. 

[Brawndo]

The Red Wings, with Seider, Raymond and Berggren needing new deals, most likely move the Sabres to 7th on the list. 
 

Add not being able to convince the owner to spend additional money towards building a playoff team to the list of complaints about Adams. 
 

Plus it should be changed from the 3 Es to the 2 Es because they sure as hell haven’t been effective. 

[Thorny]

@GASabresIUFAN (and @LGR4GM, in not as many words) really have the heart of it 

[That Aud Smell]

3 hours ago, B-U-F-F-A-L-O said:

F*** Jeff Skinner.  The guy is a hockey team poison.  Benson, Rosen and Kulich are right at the cusp of taking his job anyway. It was an incredibly stupid signing by JBOT….. It’s time for KA’s kids to take over….We are going to play, smart, two-way hockey that wins in the NHL….

your posts have an enjoyable early 2000s blog vibe to them.