Judging the off-season: the big trade(s)

[thewookie1]

58 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Casey’s new contract is $5.75, not 7.0 mill

With Colorado, which has different circumstances than Buffalo; if he demands 7mil there he likely gets a 2 year deal and a trade possibly. 

Not to mention it isn't impossible to imagine that he was willing to come down on his ask to stay on a winning team.

[GoPuckYourself]

6 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

We already had the 3rd line center who was capable and skilled enough to move up to 2 or 1.   We will see how good Byram actually is this season, if he is really good then signing him will be the next challenge.   
 

Seems like a roundabout way to build when what we really needed is a stay at home RHD.  We have puck movers (Dahlin, Power, Joker, Johnson).  

I'm just curious why do you think it's a roundabout way? We had Midlestadt on the roster but they didn't want to pay him, Byram is definitely an upgrade although not the righty I was hoping for. Adams has said he doesn't really care about the handedness??? If that how you say it. I'm not feeling Jokiharju as a "puck mover" but that's just me.

[Pimlach]

6 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

With Colorado, which has different circumstances than Buffalo; if he demands 7mil there he likely gets a 2 year deal and a trade possibly. 

Not to mention it isn't impossible to imagine that he was willing to come down on his ask to stay on a winning team.

But he didn’t get $7M, he got a reasonable contract that Buffalo could have easily paid.  But Buffalo never talked to him. 

Which is a really big reason to question if Adams has a clue.  
 

 

Edited August 19 by Pimlach

[Pimlach]

1 minute ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I'm just curious why do you think it's a roundabout way? We had Midlestadt on the roster but they didn't want to pay him, Byram is definitely an upgrade although not the righty I was hoping for. Adams has said he doesn't really care about the handedness??? If that how you say it. I'm not feeling Jokiharju as a "puck mover" but that's just me.

Nothing I saw so far says that trading Mitts for Byram upgraded this team.  After 3 games Byram became just a fancy version of Joker.  

I still don’t see how we can pay Byram the kind of dollars Power is getting.  Assuming they think Byram is at that level, which so far I don’t.  

Byram starts with a clean slate under Ruff.  I’m watching.  
 

 

[dudacek]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Byram - Pts/Game played

21/22 .57

22/23 .48

23/24 .40

Quinn - pts/game player

22/23 .31

23/24 .70 - This is what has people so excited.

The team's biggest need was a top 4 D who played good defense and had a complimentary skill set at Dahlin and Power.  This is not Byram.  I'm also a little bearish on Bryam as his defense and production have decreased each season in the NHL.  He is still young enough to rebound, but the trend is not going to in the right direction.

Do you really think Byram peaked at age 20 and his “decline” will continue?

Byram’s numbers should include sample size and context and amount to this: 2 similar and pretty impressive seasons of 30 and 42 games cut short by injury, followed by a disappointing 55 games in Colorado prior to his trade. He was .5 P/G in Buffalo.

I think Byram’s year last year should be looked at like the year his buddy Cozens had: a disappointment he can and should rebound from.

Rasmus Dahlin went from .67 in year 3 to .41 in year 4. When Mittelstadt was around Byram’s age he was getting sent to the minors after 114 NHL games.

If the kid is a competitor, bet on his talent.

Byram competes. And he is more talented than Mittelstadt.

Edited August 19 by dudacek

[thewookie1]

2 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

But he didn’t get $7M, he got a reasonable contract that Buffalo could have easily paid.  But Buffalo never talked to him.  A

Which is a really big reason to question if Adams really has a clue.  
 

 

I just don't believe we could have signed him at 5.75. But never discussing it with him seems to either be concerning on Adams side or misinformed by Mitts side. Because you could interpret it as both the literal they never talked or agent speak as we never discussed the preferred ask or to the agent's desire. (Adams offered 5.25mil and the agent wanted 7mil. Adams never came close to the ask and thus the agent felt they never actually "talked" a new contract) The latter is what I choose to believe because the former doesn't make a lick of sense for someone supposedly turning over every stone to solve issues. Otherwise that's just idiotic because even if you want to get a cheaper alternative for any reason; talking doesn't cost a dime.

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I just don't believe we could have signed him at 5.75. But never discussing it with him seems to either be concerning on Adams side or misinformed by Mitts side. Because you could interpret it as both the literal they never talked or agent speak as we never discussed the preferred ask or to the agent's desire. (Adams offered 5.25mil and the agent wanted 7mil. Adams never came close to the ask and thus the agent felt they never actually "talked" a new contract) The latter is what I choose to believe because the former doesn't make a lick of sense for someone supposedly turning over every stone to solve issues. Otherwise that's just idiotic because even if you want to get a cheaper alternative for any reason; talking doesn't cost a dime.

Or it’s just Occam’s razor:

Adams felt he needed a top 4 D more than he needed a 2nd 2C.

When one he liked became available, he traded Casey.

[thewookie1]

Just now, dudacek said:

Or it’s just Occam’s razor:

Adams felt he needed a top 4 D more than he needed a 2nd 2C.

When one he liked became available, he traded Casey.

That could certainly be it as well

[Pimlach]

17 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I just don't believe we could have signed him at 5.75. But never discussing it with him seems to either be concerning on Adams side or misinformed by Mitts side. Because you could interpret it as both the literal they never talked or agent speak as we never discussed the preferred ask or to the agent's desire. (Adams offered 5.25mil and the agent wanted 7mil. Adams never came close to the ask and thus the agent felt they never actually "talked" a new contract) The latter is what I choose to believe because the former doesn't make a lick of sense for someone supposedly turning over every stone to solve issues. Otherwise that's just idiotic because even if you want to get a cheaper alternative for any reason; talking doesn't cost a dime.

Adam’s is NOT turning over every stone and he is still operating under $$$ constraints.  Get that straight first and foremost.   
 

When the player and agent side says we never talked, then I believe that they never talked.  Whatever scenario you want to dream on how that happened, it really does not matter. 
 

Adams lied (exaggerated) about the veteran coaching search too.  He never talked to Berube, McClellan, or Gallant either.  He had one “veteran coach” in mind. 

[Weave]

42 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Do you really think Byram peaked at age 20 and his “decline” will continue?

Risto?  Meyers?

I’m too lazy to look and see if they peaked at (by?) 20, but it feels like they did.

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, Weave said:

Risto?  Meyers?

I’m too lazy to look and see if they peaked at (by?) 20, but it feels like they did.

Myers did.

Risto did not — took a jump at 22 and continued at the level for 4 years.

Not going to repeat the research, but I'm pretty confident the Myers situation happens about as often as getting a Brayden Point in the 3rd round.

Of course there are exceptions, but defencemen usually emerge between 22 and 25, and that tends to hold true regardless of whether they enter the league at 18 like Dahlin or 22 like Fox.

Edited August 19 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Adams felt he needed a top 4 D more than he needed a 2nd 2C.

When one he liked became available, he traded Casey.

This is not how it happened.  It’s pretty clear KA never intended to re-sign Mitts. Once the Sabres were reasonably out of the playoff chance he put Mitts on the trade market and took what he believed was the best offer. Whether he turned down offers for forwards, defensive D, goalies, or picks/prospects we’ll never know, but I find it hard to believe his priority was to acquire a 3rd high offense defenseman.  It seems much more likely he was looking for a talented young player under contract/control and he didn’t care if the player was a winger, center, defensive D or offensive D.  Colorado made the best offer of a former 4th overall pick who was under contract for this season and then an arbitration eligible RFA (which is control for another year to 2 years depending on the arbitration result - if not extended first).  KA would have been happy with a center as well.  After all he traded a former 9th overall center prospect (Savoie) for a 24 year old 3rd line center with one year left on his contract and then, like Byram, is an arbitration eligible RFA. 

This move was about saving money, not about making the Sabres better.

Edited August 19 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

38 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is not how it happened.  It’s pretty clear KA never intended to re-sign Mitts. Once the Sabres were reasonably out of the playoff chance he put Mitts on the trade market and took what he believed was the best offer. Whether he turned down offers for forwards, defensive D, goalies, or picks/prospects we’ll never know, but I find it hard to believe his priority was to acquire a 3rd high offense defenseman.  It seems much more likely he was looking for a talented young player under contract/control and he didn’t care if the player was a winger, center, defensive D or offensive D.  Colorado made the best offer of a former 4th overall pick who was under contract for this season and then an arbitration eligible RFA (which is control for another year to 2 years depending on the arbitration result - if not extended first).  KA would have been happy with a center as well.  After all he traded a former 9th overall center prospect (Savoie) for a 24 year old 3rd line center with one year left on his contract and then, like Byram, is an arbitration eligible RFA. 

This move was about saving money, not about making the Sabres better.

If you say so.

I mean, your scenario is possible, but I'm not aware of any evidence that supports this.

Casey was a pending RFA so the fact no contract talks had occurred is not evidence. There was no pressure whatsoever to make a deal at the deadline. Most RFAs in Casey's situation don't sign in-season.

There is evidence that Adams was very much in the market for a top-4 offensive defenceman. He had a highly-publicized failed attempt to bring in Jakob Chychrun at the previous deadline.

He also said he had been chasing Byram since the Eichel talks. Not evidence, I know, but as relevant as the lack of contract talks.

It's pretty clear Adams viewed Casey as a non-core asset, but that's a far cry from someone he was going to avoid re-signing at all costs.

 

Edited August 19 by dudacek

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Casey was a pending RFA so the fact no contract talks had occurred is not evidence. There was no pressure whatsoever to make a deal at the deadline. Most RFAs in Casey's situation don't sign in-season.

It's pretty clear Adams viewed Casey as a non-core asset, but that's a far cry from someone he was going to avoid re-signing at all costs.

 

Further to this, Lukkonen and Jokiharju were in the exact same contract situation as Mittelstadt this year.

UPL, it appears, was in their long-term plans, but to our knowledge they never really got into serious talks until after the season and they certainly didn't get a deal done prior to the deadline.

Jokiharju, it appears, was not in their long-term plans, but it seems they felt no pressure to trade him prior to the deadline.

[mjd1001]

12 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I still do not see the logic in the Mitts trade. You spend all that time developing your 2C and when he matures you trade him away. Doesn't make any sense to me unless it's just about $$$. and if it is that sucks. 

Ok, I might be wrong here, but I'm going to take a shot at what the logic might be...

The best way to win a cup for Buffalo might be to do something different than what everyone else is. And that 'different' thing is to be able to control the game from the Blue line out better than anyone.

I forgot how long ago it was, but when Canada won Gold in the Olympics a few games ago, they didn't do it by outscoring everyone. They locked the games down.  And that was done through the blue line.  No matter how much talent the other team had, the puck went in to the Canada zone and the Canadian D-men got to the puck first, had the talent to avoid the forecheck, and make that entry pass out (or skate it out) better than we probably have ever seen.

How does that equate to the Sabres? When they MATURE, you put 2 elite D-pairings back there for 70-75% of the game, and you do the same thing at the NHL level.  Slightly above average scoring, slightly above average goaltending may be all you need if the other teams simply cannot control the puck in the offensive zone before your 'talented' guys control the puck and get it out.

Now, is Byram and elite D-man who can do that? Not yet. BUT He has the talent and Skills to do it...maybe with experience he'll have the decision making to go along with it. The thing is, the Sabres Blue-line isn't there yet, but they have the pure talent to get there.

Again, I'm guessing, but that might be one of the plans they are thinking of.

Edited August 19 by mjd1001

[GoPuckYourself]

6 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Nothing I saw so far says that trading Mitts for Byram upgraded this team.  After 3 games Byram became just a fancy version of Joker.  

I still don’t see how we can pay Byram the kind of dollars Power is getting.  Assuming they think Byram is at that level, which so far I don’t.  

Byram starts with a clean slate under Ruff.  I’m watching.  
 

 

That’s a fair assessment, he definitely needs to show more this season.

[dudacek]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is not how it happened.  It’s pretty clear KA never intended to re-sign Mitts. Once the Sabres were reasonably out of the playoff chance he put Mitts on the trade market and took what he believed was the best offer. Whether he turned down offers for forwards, defensive D, goalies, or picks/prospects we’ll never know, but I find it hard to believe his priority was to acquire a 3rd high offense defenseman.  It seems much more likely he was looking for a talented young player under contract/control and he didn’t care if the player was a winger, center, defensive D or offensive D.  Colorado made the best offer of a former 4th overall pick who was under contract for this season and then an arbitration eligible RFA (which is control for another year to 2 years depending on the arbitration result - if not extended first).  KA would have been happy with a center as well.  After all he traded a former 9th overall center prospect (Savoie) for a 24 year old 3rd line center with one year left on his contract and then, like Byram, is an arbitration eligible RFA. 

This move was about saving money, not about making the Sabres better.

Also, indications are that the Avs came looking for Casey, not that the Sabres were shopping him to the highest bidder.

The Athletic’s Pierre Lebrun reported this conversation with the Avs GM:

The Ryan Johansen experiment was a disaster, but credit to general manager Chris MacFarland for not being stubborn about it and fixing that mistake in-season.

“It wasn’t working,” MacFarland told me on March 9, the day after the trade deadline, of the Johansen experiment. “And the 2C spot demanded attention to try and find a solution.”

“The Sabres weren’t going to move Mittelstadt for picks or for an older player, and from our standpoint, we know how good Bo is, how good of a person he is, and if it wasn’t for (Devon) Toews and Makar, he would be a top-pairing guy, and would be on a lot of teams.” 

“But we weren’t going to move Bo for a 30-year-old center on an expiring deal, or a 30-year-old defenseman. It had to be a very specific situation,” added the Avs GM. “It had to be for a young, controllable center.

This doesn’t completely contradict your take, but it certainly doesn’t support it.

Maybe there are things not being said here. Maybe McFarland is lying, or Adams lied to McFarland, but until other information surfaces, I don’t think we’re going to get much closer to what really went down than this.

Edited August 19 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

“The Sabres weren’t going to move Mittelstadt for picks or for an older player,

This seems to imply that the Avs knew Mitts was on the market and inquired at what it would cost to acquire him.

[sabremike]

Any time the puck was in our own end and Byram was on the ice I would repeatedly be performing the sign of the cross. He wasn't just bad, he was awful (like sub-Risto level).

[dudacek]

17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This seems to imply that the Avs knew Mitts was on the market and inquired at what it would cost to acquire him.

Either that or, as the earlier quote implies, they identified targets to fix their 2C hole, called Adams, and were told “I’d consider trading him, but only under these conditions.”

Either way, it’s a far cry from Adams deciding he wasn’t going to re-sign Casey and was determined to dump him on the highest bidder.

Edited August 19 by dudacek

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, sabremike said:

Any time the puck was in our own end and Byram was on the ice I would repeatedly be performing the sign of the cross. He wasn't just bad, he was awful (like sub-Risto level).

And as Byram’s biggest defender around here, I’m not going to argue this point. 

It’s what I saw too, at least after the first 5 games or so. I don’t think it was a coincidence that his struggles happened not when he first arrived and was just playing, but later when he was trying to learn and adapt to Granato’s system.

I’m choosing to give more weight to his talent and his overall body of work and crossing my fingers a training camp under Ruff will address that.

He wasn’t drafted with a reputation for poor defence and that wasn’t his reputation in Colorado.

Edited August 19 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Either that or, as the earlier quotes, they identified targets to fix their 2C hole, called Adams, and were told “I’d consider trading him, but only under these conditions.”

Either way, it’s a far cry from Adams deciding he wasn’t going to re-sign Casey and was determined to dump him on the highest bidder.

But it’s clearly not Adams calling Avs and asking what they want for Byram.

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

But it’s clearly not Adams calling Avs and asking what they want for Byram.

Agreed, but the Avs already knew of the Sabres interest in Byram. Adams made it clear they had inquired about him going back to the Eichel trade.

[sabremike]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

And as Byram’s biggest defender around here, I’m not going to argue this point. 

It’s what I saw too, at least after the first 5 games or so. I don’t think it was a coincidence that his struggles happened not when he first arrived and was just playing, but later when he was trying to learn and adapt to Granato’s system.

I’m choosing to give more weight to his talent and his overall body of work and crossing my fingers a training camp under Ruff will address that.

He wasn’t drafted with a reputation for poor defence and that wasn’t his reputation in Colorado.

The one glimmer of hope was that power play in his first game where his head almost exploded clearly expecting guys to do what NHL players are supposed to do on a PP and seeing his poorly coached teammates doing the exact opposite.

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, Taro T said:

Speaking as one who did not like the Mittelstadt trade, there is a logic to it.  (Whether the logic pans out or not remains to be seen.)

But Mittelstadt wasn't viewed as the 2C - that's Cozens role.  And, though Mitts was likely the best 2 way F this team had, it is unlikely he'd ever be viewed as a true 3C.  (Which isn't a bad thing, IMHO, having 3 - 1/2C's is actually a good thing and at the price tags for both Thompson and Cozens something the team could afford to have.)

As frustrating as it is, and with exposing as much hubris as it does, Adams has been (and would add it appears with ownership's blessing) working towards making this team a perennial contender a year or 2 from now.  And IF he's right about Byram (which is still possible) being a legit top 4 D-man (more specifically a 2/3) when he hits his prime and with Kulich, Östlund, and (formerly) Savoie (who's now been supplanted by Helenius) ready to be useful in that timeframe on ELC/1st RFA contracts then the team will net out to be better in that timeframe than it would've been with Mittelstadt and another Jokiharju on the roster.

And, it is hubris to be more worried about a future 1-2 seasons away when his job should be on the line this season should playoffs not finally become a reality again.  But he sure seems to be following the blue print Regier laid out way back when at the time suffering became not just a distasteful word but a way of life.

But also, trading Savoie (or any of the at the time "big 4" prospects for what is needed in other areas has always been a significant part of the plan throughout the entire drought.  They've been lousy for years and have accumulated high-ish end prospects that they simply don't/won't have room for them all.  Under Regier, they never got beyond the accumulate future talent mode; under Murray, that phase was skipped in large part and might've worked had he gotten more time &/or he'd've ever seen players as humans and not horses; under Botterill, they never got beyond the accumulate future talent mode primarily because he wouldn't know a legit HC even if the guy bit him on the arse, he had no idea what a legit goalie looks like and couldn't figure out what to do with one when he lucked into one, and he loved swapping out edge of useful picks for 4th liners that he thought could be 3rd liners but tended to get played even higher than that in the lineup.  And, now, we're watching a still relatively inexperienced GM take his 1st foray outside accumulate future talent mode.  He believes he's accumulated 5 of 6 pieces necessary for a legit top 6 and has swapped out an incoherent bottom 6 for one with an identity.  If he's lucked into the youthful goaltending he's maintained/obtained being ready while still youthful; then that hubris could be rewarded as this most likely is a playoff team with a repeat of the good versions of both his young goalies even if he never manages to land that 6th top 6F.

And back to Savoie again.  Not sure what part of trading from a surplus (especially a future surplus) for something the team lacks isn't a sound strategy.  Heck, the good teams are always trading away future pieces to maintain / upgrade today's rosters even when the cupboards have been laid bare.  The Sabres cupboards are still quite well stocked and as Thorny always says they get 7 or so more chances (only 2-3 of which are legit opportunities, but they still have those 2-3 legit opportunities) to restock it next summer too.

I understand what you're saying but in my opinion this is just Adams doubling down on his decision and making his decision the only decision even if he was wrong. 

So to focus on the bolded part it doesn't matter if he didn't view Mitts as 2C, Mitts played his way into justifying himself as 2C. He was arguably 1C but if you assume Thompson bounces back 2C is where he belonged. Cozens got paid by Adams but that was Adams choice. Cozens has shown himself to be capable of 2 way development but hasn't really shown himself to be better than 3C on a better team. 

If you have Thompson-Mitts-Cozens as 1, 2, 3C you don't need to trade for Mcleod you already have a better 3C on the roster. 

Colorado is a better team and they think Mitts is able to be their 2C. Is Colorado dumb and Adams smart? I don't think so, do you?

It makes no sense to me. This team is forever creating new holes when they fill old holes and Byram is just not a guy this team needed. Better plan in my opinion would have been to sign Mitts, make him 2C, make Cozens 3C and maybe trade for a big defensive D man to partner with Dahlin or Power. Cozens would be overpaid, but that's a decision they'd have to live with since they made it and if it became untenable then you trade a piece down the line to rectify it. 

So I can follow the logic you outline, but I just don't think it's the best way to have gone.