Amerks 24/25 - Young Talented Roster

[JoeSchmoe]

37 minutes ago, inkman said:

This is weird 

What's weird? I didn't like that they picked another small forward when we had tons of them and no room for them all. Moreover, they've kept him around all this time even though there seemingly is no room for him unless he takes a GIANT leap.

Not only that, but his numbers going into the draft were not close to NHL top 6 potential (small forwards typically don't make good 3rd or 4th liners). Meanwhile, there were players available with similar stats but had the size to play deeper in the lineup.

[LGR4GM]

Noah Östlund: 10games 5g 6a 11pts +9

I truly believe if the Sabres had managed to draft Kulich and Östlund in the reverse order, the opinions of Ostund would be more in line with who he is as a player. That said, Östlund coming to life in the AHL is a really good sign and I hope he keeps working to get stronger because he's got legit NHL skills, but he will get buried if he doesn't focus on becoming a 5'11" 185lb man. 

[PromoTheRobot]

16 minutes ago, EM88 said:

What is the list of examples you speak of? Where a great team lost their great QB and then wasn't considerably worse?

I didn't say great QBs didn't make a team better. I said that having a great QB isn't enough to be a consistent contender. Maybe you get on a hot streak for a season, but to be a dominant team for 5 years + you have to be an elite organization: players and coaches. Sorry it goes against your narrative but it's true.

7 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

What's weird? I didn't like that they picked another small forward when we had tons of them and no room for them all. Moreover, they've kept him around all this time even though there seemingly is no room for him unless he takes a GIANT leap.

Not only that, but his numbers going into the draft were not close to NHL top 6 potential (small forwards typically don't make good 3rd or 4th liners). Meanwhile, there were players available with similar stats but had the size to play deeper in the lineup.

That's why there are people called scouts. Anyone can make judgements looking at stats.

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

What's weird? I didn't like that they picked another small forward when we had tons of them and no room for them all. Moreover, they've kept him around all this time even though there seemingly is no room for him unless he takes a GIANT leap.

Not only that, but his numbers going into the draft were not close to NHL top 6 potential (small forwards typically don't make good 3rd or 4th liners). Meanwhile, there were players available with similar stats but had the size to play deeper in the lineup.

I'd debate that. 42pts in 32 j20 games is fairly solid. Not at the top like his linemate Liam Ohgren though and a lot of what scouts wrote on Östlund was "potential" due to his elite skating and work ethic. Still, you are correct there were other forwards with size we could have easily drafted, such as Ohgren (6'1") Snuggerud (6'2") and Bystedt (6'2"). 

I believe this is the draft that the Sabres were going to take Leinonen in the first if Kulich was gone, so dodged a bullet there. 

[Mr. Allen]

Why are you guys talking QB’s in an Amerks thread!?!  

[JoeSchmoe]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd debate that. 42pts in 32 j20 games is fairly solid

It's not mid-first round solid. You may recall I did an analysis of players with similar stats in the SHL going back 10 years, and it showed the chances of him turning out were not good (too lazy to find it).

[Mr. Allen]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd debate that. 42pts in 32 j20 games is fairly solid. Not at the top like his linemate Liam Ohgren though and a lot of what scouts wrote on Östlund was "potential" due to his elite skating and work ethic. Still, you are correct there were other forwards with size we could have easily drafted, such as Ohgren (6'1") Snuggerud (6'2") and Bystedt (6'2"). 

I believe this is the draft that the Sabres were going to take Leinonen in the first if Kulich was gone, so dodged a bullet there. 

Any of those three playing well at this stage? 

[Broken Ankles]

19 hours ago, EM88 said:

Agree on the Bandits.

With the Bills, one can take a different side of the argument than what is popular.  Maybe, just maybe they are less of a success story than we think.  How many times has a team had a Quarterback as good as Josh Allen has been and has yet to reach the superbowl let alone win one?  I personally put him in a category that has 95% of Quarterbacks with his talent already at least making a superbowl appearance by this point of his career.

Yes, Patrick Mahomes is in his way. But Brady did not stop Roethlisberger or Manning from reaching, and winning the Superbowl.  If you were to make up a list of the greatest Quarterbacks of the past 25 years, Allen and Lamar Jackson are probably the only 2 that have not even made a Superbowl, let alone winning one. That might say something more about the organization around them.

Remove the starting QB, and I think Kanas City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, the Rams, Pittsburgh, and recently the Vikings and Lions are better teams, and probably have been or are currently better run organiztions top to bottom.

FWIW - Manning didn’t reach the superbowl until year nine in the NFL.  That included two MVP awards in the years preceding the 2007 win.  Josh just finished his 7th, so he is in his prime and on pace with Peyton.

Big Ben’s 2009 win, which was a game for the ages and one I’ll always remember for the TD finish against the Cardinals that netted me a cool grand for the final numbers in a square, had the benefit of Tom Brady’s ALC injury in 2008 season.  
 

Captain obvious here - Bills are well run. Having an MVP as a QB on your roster helps.  Current regime has three more years to get there or changes.  Let me also say, as a kid I suffered through the Joe Dufek year and bottoming out in the 80’s.  The 90’s Bills, sans a championship made me hold on for 17 more years in a different state 3,000 miles from home.  I love Sundays because of the organization and the current roster. Can’t say the same about the Sabres. Barely holding on.  

[EM88]

11 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I didn't say great QBs didn't make a team better. I said that having a great QB isn't enough to be a consistent contender. Maybe you get on a hot streak for a season, but to be a dominant team for 5 years + you have to be an elite organization: players and coaches. Sorry it goes against your narrative but it's true.

The point of my entire post isn't that a great QB isn't enough, it is that without a great QB most teams will drop off considerably.

I never debated nor disagreed with a great QB not being enough.  There is also a difference between a QB playing 'great' vs 'elite'.  Most elite level QB's, like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, those elite level guys are enough to make a team a consistent contender with just about any roster.

[EM88]

Just now, Broken Ankles said:

FWIW - Manning didn’t reach the superbowl until year nine in the NFL.  That included two MVP awards in the years preceding the 2007 win.  Josh just finished his 7th, so he is in his prime and on pace with Peyton.

Big Ben’s 2009 win, which was a game for the ages and one I’ll always remember for the TD finish against the Cardinals that netted me a cool grand for the final numbers in a square, had the benefit of Tom Brady’s ALC injury in 2008 season.  
 

Captain obvious here - Bills are well run. Having an MVP as a QB on your roster helps.  Current regime has three more years to get there or changes.  Let me also say, as a kid I suffered through the Joe Dufek year and bottoming out in the 80’s.  The 90’s Bills, sans a championship made me hold on for 17 more years in a different state 3,000 miles from home.  I love Sundays because of the organization and the current roster. Can’t say the same about the Sabres. Barely holding on.  

The bills are 'well' run. Well. They are not an elite level run organization top to bottom.

I never stated they were poorly run. If you were to look back at my first couple comments on this, I think you will see my intention is to say that they are not an elite-level run organization.  My whole point is they are 'good enough' to get to the playoffs but not run as well as other teams.  That was said in response to various other posts on this forum, and in the public, saying they are run near an 'elite' level organizationaly.

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

It's not mid-first round solid. You may recall I did an analysis of players with similar stats in the SHL going back 10 years, and it showed the chances of him turning out were not good (too lazy to find it).

I would not have drafted Östlund at 16, I fully agree there were other options Buffalo should have considered. 

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, Mr. Allen said:

Any of those three playing well at this stage? 

Ohgren (6'1") Snuggerud (6'2") and Bystedt (6'2"). 

I don't follow players much after we draft them unless I love them (hi Seth Jarvis) but

Ohgren has gotten a few games with Minnesota this year and hasn't looked lost from what I have seen. Hasn't produced much but is solid. He has 12g, 11a, in 25 AHL games this season. 1g, 3a in the 19 NHL games he has. I'd say he's doing okay at 21 but he isn't wowing me. 

Snuggerud I haven't seen play at all because I don't watch much NCAA hockey these days. That said he is Capt of University of Minnesota and has 20g, 22a, in 32games. He produced 50pts in 40 games as a freshmen but then had some drop off last year and seems to have rebounded this year. 3rd yr NCAA played having 20g in 31 games, that's solid and just based on production he is trending towards a middle 6 goal scoring forward. 

Bystedt I have seen a bit of because he is in the AHL. He has 26pts, 9g, 17a, in 43 AHL games. That's .6ppg in the AHL compared to Östlund at 0.57 for Östlund. That said, both were transitioning to NA hockey so gotta wait to see where it goes. 

Overall, I think Ohgren's game has translated the best as evidence by his AHL play and NHL callups. I think Snuggerud is really intriguing and I want to see if his skating improved and he's more consistent using his skills. That's the big difference between someone like Snuggerud and Östlund. Snuggerud has the physical ability but he isn't consistently showing off the skills (I mean in his draft year) versus Östlund who lacked the physical ability but was constantly using those skills.

Really at the end of the day I want players with high rev motors that use physical play to disconnect players from the puck. It is why I like Jarvis or Benson as much as I do regardless of their size and why I was not a big Power fan. In the 2025 draft it is why I gravitate towards Misa, Eklund, and Bear and less so towards Lakovic even though he is 6'4" because sure, he has the size but if he isn't using it how I want, who cares? I'd rather take Bear at 6' and get that constant engagement piece which is more disruptive IMO. It is why Benson can still be effective on the 4th line (even though it is stupid Buffalo has put him there). 

[Ctaeth]

I really like Östlund's game from what I've seen of it.  He's a really active player that is both intelligent and skilled.  Has some pretty good defensive chops too.  Excited to see that he's starting to have AHL success and trending in the right direction because I haven't always been so sure that he would ultimately develop into an NHL player.  

[inkman]

58 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

What's weird? I didn't like that they picked another small forward when we had tons of them and no room for them all. Moreover, they've kept him around all this time even though there seemingly is no room for him unless he takes a GIANT leap.

Not only that, but his numbers going into the draft were not close to NHL top 6 potential (small forwards typically don't make good 3rd or 4th liners). Meanwhile, there were players available with similar stats but had the size to play deeper in the lineup.

It’s weird that you are upset that he hasn’t been traded as if that was the most likely outcome of his career path. 

[LGR4GM]

Most guys outside the top 10, play out their jr level years (1-2) and then come to the AHL for another 1-3, that's a fairly normal development path, Buffalo has just sucked giant suckage for so long we expect every 1st round to be 1 and done at worst in the jr levels. 

[JoeSchmoe]

7 minutes ago, inkman said:

It’s weird that you are upset that he hasn’t been traded as if that was the most likely outcome of his career path. 

When you have more little guys than you do roster spots for them, the most effective outcome is that you should trade some of them for pieces you need. That's not weird, that's just good GM'ing.

The only weird part is that we picked so many undersized forward in the first place.

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

When you have more little guys than you do roster spots for them, the most effective outcome is that you should trade some of them for pieces you need. That's not weird, that's just good GM'ing.

The only weird part is that we picked so many undersized forward in the first place.

We did to that, we traded Savoie for McLeod. 

We didn't pick that many undersized forwards. Savoie, Rosen, Östlund, I suppose we could add Benson but he's a different cat. Out of those 3, Savoie was the only truly small guy in terms of height. 

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, EM88 said:

The point of my entire post isn't that a great QB isn't enough, it is that without a great QB most teams will drop off considerably.

I never debated nor disagreed with a great QB not being enough.  There is also a difference between a QB playing 'great' vs 'elite'.  Most elite level QB's, like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, those elite level guys are enough to make a team a consistent contender with just about any roster.

That's the FALSE part. The rest of the roster has to be good too. You aren't going to win squat with a bunch of jamokes. How do you not get that?

3 hours ago, Mr. Allen said:

Why are you guys talking QB’s in an Amerks thread!?!  

Because someone is arguing the Bills aren't really a great team.

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

When you have more little guys than you do roster spots for them, the most effective outcome is that you should trade some of them for pieces you need. That's not weird, that's just good GM'ing.

The only weird part is that we picked so many undersized forward in the first place.

Brandon Hagel was kind of small. Good thing we moved on from him. 

[inkman]

3 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

When you have more little guys than you do roster spots for them, the most effective outcome is that you should trade some of them for pieces you need. That's not weird, that's just good GM'ing.

The only weird part is that we picked so many undersized forward in the first place.

What you said was you are upset they didn’t trade Noah Östlund, not “they didn’t trade the plethora of midget ass they have in the system to get actual men that play hockey”.  
 

I just thought it was weird you singled him out.  Quite frankly, they should move every single forward on the Sabres, Amerks and juiniors as none of them play with the intensity required to be a successful NHL player.  This whole organization stinks from top to bottom.  Fire everyone, trade everyone and cut whoever is left.  This team blows. 

[JoeSchmoe]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

What you said was you are upset they didn’t trade Noah Östlund, not “they didn’t trade the plethora of midget ass they have in the system to get actual men that play hockey”.  
 

I just thought it was weird you singled him out.  Quite frankly, they should move every single forward on the Sabres, Amerks and juiniors as none of them play with the intensity required to be a successful NHL player.  This whole organization stinks from top to bottom.  Fire everyone, trade everyone and cut whoever is left.  This team blows. 

For a while there I thought his trade value vs chance of panning out ratio was the best out of the bunch... Especially early on. That window had appeared to close at the beginning of the season, but may be opening up again.

[Flashsabre]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Brandon Hagel was kind of small. Good thing we moved on from him. 

Not even signing him to an ELC when they were desperate for forwards is truly one of the most mind boggling things. He had grit and was playing well in juniors. So sad the lack of ability that has sat in the Sabres GM chair for all these years. 

[PromoTheRobot]

9 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Not even signing him to an ELC when they were desperate for forwards is truly one of the most mind boggling things. He had grit and was playing well in juniors. So sad the lack of ability that has sat in the Sabres GM chair for all these years. 

Yeah but he was a smallish forward, like Noah Östlund. He was never going to amount to anything.

/s

2 hours ago, inkman said:

What you said was you are upset they didn’t trade Noah Östlund, not “they didn’t trade the plethora of midget ass they have in the system to get actual men that play hockey”.  
 

I just thought it was weird you singled him out.  Quite frankly, they should move every single forward on the Sabres, Amerks and juiniors as none of them play with the intensity required to be a successful NHL player.  This whole organization stinks from top to bottom.  Fire everyone, trade everyone and cut whoever is left.  This team blows. 

Quite the blanket statement to make when the Amerks are #1 overall.

[shrader]

12 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Not even signing him to an ELC when they were desperate for forwards is truly one of the most mind boggling things. He had grit and was playing well in juniors. So sad the lack of ability that has sat in the Sabres GM chair for all these years. 

I’d be curious to see what happened there. I’m sure there’s more than just the numbers, but his productions dropped slightly from year one to year two after being drafted. That’s the last thing they had before deciding whether or not to sign. He then goes back into the draft and is not selected, signing a free agent deal with Chicago after a quick start to his next season. So his real growth in juniors came after that deal. 

[DarthEbriate]

3 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Brandon Hagel was kind of small. Good thing we moved on from him. 

Now... maybe the Red Deer folks are pumping up his weight a few pounds, or tossing a bucket of water over him before weigh-in...   But the Sabres are NOT exactly earning any respect in their attention to detail over the years. Something in the available information below doesn't quite match up. Maybe the Sabres just don't keep good records.

 

6/24/2016 Draft date: 6-0 165#   (probably 5 pounds too heavy for a draft bump -- in the 6th round)

2016 Sabres Dev camp: 6-0 160#  (lost 5 pounds from pre-draft information)

2016-17 Red Deer roster: 6-1 173# -- WHL populates one data set per skater so it's the same across all seasons

2017 Sabres Dev camp: 6-0 160#  (no change? Lazy.)

2018 Sabres Dev camp: not in attendance. But from my notes the only official non-invites were Karabacek and Hurley, edit: as Hagel had been let back into the draft. Hagel signs ELC with Blackhawks on 10/30/2018.

2017-18 Red Deer roster: 6-1 173#  (yup, still the same)

2019-20 Rockford IceHogs roster: 6-1  174#  (gained 1 pound! but now those 160s look more suspect)

a few years pass...

Current Eliteprospects: 6-2  181#

Current TBL roster: 6-2  180#

Edited Thursday at 09:25 PM by DarthEbriate