The Sabres will make the playoffs this season if ___________

[nfreeman]

Excellent thread, #freejame.  Lots of good hockey talk in here.  I agree in particular with the points that many have made about goaltending, how the team responds to Lindy, and improved power-play. Those are the three biggest considerations, IMHO. But many other factors mentioned in here are likely also to play a role.  And, as seemingly has been the case for years now, a significant number of things will need to go right for them.

Still, I think they will be much better this year, that Lindy and UPL will both deliver, and that overall it will be much more fun to watch the team.

[Broken Ankles]

 

Sorry, but someone had to do it.   

[French Collection]

13 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

 

Sorry, but someone had to do it.   

C’mon man, we’re tied for first place in the entire conference.

[Berg]

The Sabres will make the playoffs this year if we will have better squad than our opponents...So no chances 

[LGR4GM]

They will make the playoffs if they grow up over the summer and realize the NHL is hard and doesn't care about what you think you're entitled to.

[French Collection]

26 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

They will make the playoffs if they grow up over the summer and realize the NHL is hard and doesn't care about what you think you're entitled to.

TikTok trick shot videos should put the fear of God into other players.

[Big Guava]

Lindy Ruff gets thru to them mentally and they consistently play the type of hockey he wants them to.

[JohnC]

The roster is better balanced now with the upgrade of the lower two lines. I would love to see another second line forward added before camp opens up but I'm not confident that it will happen. So assuming there will be internal improvement by the young players such as Power, Quinn, JJP, Benson, Byram etc., the issue comes down to the play of our goalies. If UPL can play at the same level as he did last year, then we should have a good opportunity to make the playoffs. If his play regresses without Levi picking up the slack, then I see them again on the outside looking in. 

If I had to predict a young player making a quantum leap forward, the player I would pick would be Quinn. I also see Power making the jump. Power is not a flashy player but I do see him being an anchor defenseman this season. 

[kas23]

If no single player in our top 6 misses more than a cumulative 14 days. 

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

This was my thought as well.

I'll go extra specific:

1. Dahlin and Quinn both play 70+ games

2. The Sabres PP% is 21.5 or better  (NSH was 16th with 21.66% last year; BUF was 16.59!)

3. Cozens and TNT combine for 65+ goals (they had 57 last season; 78 two years ago)

4. Luukkonen has a save% of .912+ (better team defense and UPL becoming more consistent with experience; .910 last season)

To me what will be important is not how any one player bounces back or what kind of season he has as an individual but rather how the team comes together and performs as a unit collectively. How they respond to Ruff's system and how they interact together. 

Too many years of looking at this team and seeing a bunch of disconnected individuals making selfish plays or dumb plays. Out of position. Some trying to do too much. Some not trying to do enough. The hope is we end up with a better TEAM, even if various individuals suffer statistically for that. We need that team where if one line/player is having an off night a different line steps up and fills the void. A guy misses a check another guy is there to cover. Confidence grows in the support system. This is what has always been lacking in the Pegula era. This is what we need.

[SabreFinn]

...they win those games they are supposed to win. No more unnecessery losses against Ducks and Blue Jackets.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

If UPL and some backup or other hold up.

The defence plays even a bit tighter than last year.

The goal scorers remember how to score even while focusing on the defencive side of the game overall.

Better forechecking and taking away the neutral zone.

All the kids are a year older and hopefully they took the summer seriously to be ready for camp.

Good luck on the injury front.

A good amount of puck luck will not hurt.

I hate the loser point, so just win baby - preferably in regulation.

Ruff inspires them to be real men.

In the East 7th or 8th is a realistic goal this year and then anything can happen.

[PromoTheRobot]

The Sabres will make the playoffs if they earn a Deluca .500. That is the floor. Let's say 41 wins, 12 OTLs and 29 Ls. That's 94 points, a .573 pts%. Doesn't matter who or how they do it.

Edited July 14 by PromoTheRobot

[Taro T]

26 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

The Sabres will make the playoffs if they earn a Deluca .500. That is the floor. Let's say 41 wins, 12 OTLs and 29 Ls. That's 94 points, a .573 pts%. Doesn't matter who or how they do it.

Though 94 would've been enough each of the last couple of years, would be mildly surprised if that's enough again this year.  Not convinced Tampa will fall back and expect NJ to be good again this year.  If even just one of the Aisles, Wings, Otters, Caps, Pens, or Phlyers get their #### together, it'll take somewhere from 96-99 to get in.

Edited July 14 by Taro T

[ExWNYer]

...if coaching really was the reason for this team repeatedly falling short and Lindy is the difference.

...if they actually accumulate some of the many "loser points" they left on the table last season.

...if they play like a real home team on home ice.

...if UPL wasn't a flash in the pan.

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Though 94 would've been enough each of the last couple of years, would be mildly surprised if that's enough again this year.  Not convinced Tampa will fall back and expect NJ to be good again this year.  If even just one of the Aisles, Wings, Otters, Caps, Pens, or Phlyers get their #### together, it'll take somewhere from 96-99 to get in.

I did say 94 is the floor. I guess my biggest point is .575 is the pace they have to stay above.

Edited July 14 by PromoTheRobot

[dudacek]

…If Thompson Tuch Cozens and Quinn provide the backbone of 2 legitimate NHL top 6 lines

…if the new depth pieces up front provide Lindy with the “tools” he wanted and Adams with the identity shift he sought

…if Dahlin, Power, Byram and Samuelsson play to their pedigrees

…if Lukkonnen and/or Levi supply the same level of goaltending the team got last year.

I’ll go as far as saying that if any 3 of these things happen, the team will make the playoffs.

If all 4 happen, the team will be legitimately good.

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I did say 94 is the floor. I guess my biggest point is .575 is the pace they have to stay above.

They need to be targeting at least 0.600 to keep reaching the goal of playoffs this season in their own hands.

0.575 and they still very likely will need help in some other team having serious injury troubles or their goaltending falling off the map.  It's possible 94 points will be enough.  But pretty sure the odds are greater everybody here will be very unhappy rather than pleased 10 months from now if that's all they end up with.

[B-U-F-F-A-L-O]

23 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Biggest thing, yes 

-Tage gets back close to 45-50 goals.....likely imo.

-UPL plays like he did at the end of last season...IMO likely.

-Defense takes another slight step up ..imo likely.

-besides Tage, the get 3-4 other 20-25 goal scorers ...imo iffy.

-they have some luck with several other Eastern Conference teams having injury issues or starting to show age...imo Iffy.

I think there’s a good chance to hit all of them…. Re: the 3 or 4 wingers, I think IF the top stays healthy they hit it. I guess that’s a big if though… but I think it is the only things stopping JJ, TNT, Tuch, Cozens and Quinn from crossing the 25g barrier; injuries. I might add that Benson must also stay healthy or at least Benson and Zucker together but I like Benson better in that #2 LW role….I guess Kulich or Rosen could really mature between the end of the Amerks season and say.… November, and they might be ready to help quite a bit, IDK though….

The last one is tough, but if the kids are working out hard and getting stronger, their odds of getting an injury go down…. I hope they are….But the point I wanted to make is that we are in our prime or haven’t hit it on everybody but Zucker I guess. So our odds of getting hurt should be better than most teams we are facing. Though young guys tend to get hurt it seems… Or, at least, our young guys? LOL! IDK? I do know that Quinn is a big deal for the Sabres. He stays healthy and we are a way better team, imho….. I even think it’s possible, if everyone stays healthy, that Quinn ends leading the team in 5 x 5 play. He might even lead the team period, if he makes the PP1 squad. We’ll see if they give him a look. If they do, he stands a good chance of staying I think. He really can score from a lot of places I think. He’s definitely a goal scorer…a big time one I think. If Benson can take a nice little jump and he starts creating from that LW spot, both Cozens and Quinn will benefit greatly. I like 15g and 30a for Benny this year if the top six stays healthy…. That is no one misses a lot of games…

I think if the Sabres in general stay relatively healthy we make it. One team is going to falter, I sure hope it is not us…

[PickaPecaPickles]

I'll beat my dead horse but try to describe it in a little detail.  What will it take to get a +12 goal differential, or increase the differential by 10 over last year?

GA were 244 last season. Reducing this by 10 can come from UPL playing like his second half self for a full season and improved team defense.

GF were 246 last season.  Can they maintain the same level of scoring?

Top Line: (I'll assume it's) TT = 35, Tuch = 25, and Zucker = 20, Total = 80

Second line: JJP = 25, Quinn = 30, and Cozens = 20, Total = 75

Bottom 6 = 50, and D = 40, total = 90

Goalies: UPL = 1 [Have to get to the 246 total 😅]

Grand Total = 246, generating a goal differential of 246 - 234 = +12, which = playoffs (based on the past 2 years).

A big part of the ability to maintain the GF will be the PP.   TT (11), Tuch (6), and Cozens(3) combined for 20 fewer PP goals in 2023-34 compared to 2022-23, which also underlies a "return to form" for those 3.  Simply getting half of those back brings them to the goal estimates above.

I don't think the rest of the estimates are out of line.

Bottom Line (literally): I don't believe the recipe for making the playoffs is that difficult for the Sabres.

 

[tom webster]

I’m sure I am just echoing other’s opinions, but while there are obviously many factors, and a lot of ways they can get better, to me the simplest answer is that Tage and Dylan stay healthy and play like two years ago and UPL also stats healthy and plays like last year.

[Archie Lee]

22 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I’m sure I am just echoing other’s opinions, but while there are obviously many factors, and a lot of ways they can get better, to me the simplest answer is that Tage and Dylan stay healthy and play like two years ago and UPL also stats healthy and plays like last year.

I agree. There are complicated scenarios, but there is the simple answer as well.  The goaltending doesn't regress and the PP improves to middle of the pack and we turn 8 one goal regulation losses into overtime games and win half of them and we finish with 96 points. 

[Drag0nDan]

On 7/14/2024 at 1:30 PM, JohnC said:

The roster is better balanced now with the upgrade of the lower two lines. I would love to see another second line forward added before camp opens up but I'm not confident that it will happen. So assuming there will be internal improvement by the young players such as Power, Quinn, JJP, Benson, Byram etc., the issue comes down to the play of our goalies. If UPL can play at the same level as he did last year, then we should have a good opportunity to make the playoffs. If his play regresses without Levi picking up the slack, then I see them again on the outside looking in. 

If I had to predict a young player making a quantum leap forward, the player I would pick would be Quinn. I also see Power making the jump. Power is not a flashy player but I do see him being an anchor defenseman this season. 

I personally think it's Levi's net by the end of this season for us to make the playoffs.  But Quinn and JJP taking a step would be huge.  Tage and Cozens getting shots from better areas will help them get some of that scoring touch back.  

Edited July 19 by Drag0nDan

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Drag0nDan said:

I personally think it's Levi's net by the end of this season for us to make the playoffs.  But Quinn and JJP taking a step would be huge.  Tage and Cozens getting shots from better areas will help them get some of that scoring touch back.  

If Levi ends up during the season supplanting UPL, that would mean that UPL faltered. That would be a setback for the team. It really doesn't matter to me which one eventually becomes the primary goalie. As I said in the prior post, if we get the caliber of goalie play that UPL provided in the second half of the season, from whomever, that could be the difference between making the playoffs, or not.  

On 7/14/2024 at 4:31 PM, Sabres Fan in NS said:

If UPL and some backup or other hold up.

The defence plays even a bit tighter than last year.

The goal scorers remember how to score even while focusing on the defencive side of the game overall.

Better forechecking and taking away the neutral zone.

All the kids are a year older and hopefully they took the summer seriously to be ready for camp.

Good luck on the injury front.

A good amount of puck luck will not hurt.

I hate the loser point, so just win baby - preferably in regulation.

Ruff inspires them to be real men.

In the East 7th or 8th is a realistic goal this year and then anything can happen.

I'll take all the loser points we can get, especially on the road. 

[JohnC]

On 7/14/2024 at 6:19 PM, dudacek said:

…If Thompson Tuch Cozens and Quinn provide the backbone of 2 legitimate NHL top 6 lines

…if the new depth pieces up front provide Lindy with the “tools” he wanted and Adams with the identity shift he sought

…if Dahlin, Power, Byram and Samuelsson play to their pedigrees

…if Lukkonnen and/or Levi supply the same level of goaltending the team got last year.

I’ll go as far as saying that if any 3 of these things happen, the team will make the playoffs.

If all 4 happen, the team will be legitimately good.

Looking over your four categories what is striking is that all four categories are attainable. Nothing you listed can be considered unrealistic. Making that judgment indicates to me that this team has accumulated enough talent to expect it to be a reasonable expectation. I'm expecting the Lindy factor will bring things together. 

In my view, if we get the UPL caliber goaltending (from whomever) that we got last year, that should be the most influential factor.