The Sabres will make the playoffs this season if ___________

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I'll take all the loser points we can get, especially on the road. 

We all want wins but they need to eke out points when not playing their best.

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, French Collection said:

We all want wins but they need to eke out points when not playing their best.

When Lindy was first announced as the coach, he went on WGR. He talked about the same issue you just noted about squeezing out points when you are not playing your best. He observed that in a long and grinding season it was impossible for a number of reasons for a team to play at its highest level. He pointed out that getting single points when your play is lacking add up over a long season. That can be the difference between making the playoffs or not. 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

If Levi ends up during the season supplanting UPL, that would mean that UPL faltered. That would be a setback for the team. It really doesn't matter to me which one eventually becomes the primary goalie. As I said in the prior post, if we get the caliber of goalie play that UPL provided in the second half of the season, from whomever, that could be the difference between making the playoffs, or not.  

I'll take all the loser points we can get, especially on the road. 

Loser points are key for any team. I also think this team is built fairly well for gaining extra points in OT with shootout skills and open ice speed. It's an area we should technically do very well in. The trick is getting to OT, getting that late tying goal or hanging on to a lead or tie. Net front will be the key there. That has to be Lindy's #1 concern both ends of the rink. 

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, JohnC said:

If Levi ends up during the season supplanting UPL, that would mean that UPL faltered. That would be a setback for the team. It really doesn't matter to me which one eventually becomes the primary goalie. As I said in the prior post, if we get the caliber of goalie play that UPL provided in the second half of the season, from whomever, that could be the difference between making the playoffs, or not.  

I'll take all the loser points we can get, especially on the road. 

To the bolded, not necessarily.  Or, more precisely, whether he'd faltered would depend upon the baseline.  If the baseline is the UPL we saw in January and February, it would almost necessarily be due to him faltering, because that UPL was getting into Vasilevskiy territory and would necessitate having Levi playing like Saros.

But, if the baseline is where UPL was at the very end of the season, could see Levi playing better than that but UPL remaining at that level.  (And that would almost definitely still be better than the sum total of what the Sabres got from the position last year.)  And if UPL stays at the level he ended at, don't see how it could be called "faltering."  (Semantics, but IMHO words & their meanings matter.)

And if they got oh, say, 76 games of at least the end of the year UPL out of both of them with a handful of stinkers thrown in; that likely would be good enough.  (Especially if they add the 2W that Adams seems to be looking for.)

To the rest of your post, agree.  It doesn't matter which goalie plays at a legit starter's level as long as at least one of them gets there.  (And if it's Reimer doing it, fine.  Who does it doesn't matter (ST, it matters greatly for the LT); but that the Sabres get it absolutely matters.)

And if they don't get that level of goaltending, Mr. Adams might be looking to the employment section of the newspaper next spring.  (PLEASE don't let that be the case.  REALLY don't want to have to see another attempt at a rebuild.)

@dudacek has said it before, and it's accurate.  Don't know if Adams will get it (playoffs) done this year; but the thought of the team not doing it is seriously depressing because it means these guys aren't as good as management believed/believes they are.  And that augers more "suffering."  We've had too dang much of it already the past dozen years +.

[JohnC]

37 minutes ago, Taro T said:

To the bolded, not necessarily.  Or, more precisely, whether he'd faltered would depend upon the baseline.  If the baseline is the UPL we saw in January and February, it would almost necessarily be due to him faltering, because that UPL was getting into Vasilevskiy territory and would necessitate having Levi playing like Saros.

But, if the baseline is where UPL was at the very end of the season, could see Levi playing better than that but UPL remaining at that level.  (And that would almost definitely still be better than the sum total of what the Sabres got from the position last year.)  And if UPL stays at the level he ended at, don't see how it could be called "faltering."  (Semantics, but IMHO words & their meanings matter.)

And if they got oh, say, 76 games of at least the end of the year UPL out of both of them with a handful of stinkers thrown in; that likely would be good enough.  (Especially if they add the 2W that Adams seems to be looking for.)

To the rest of your post, agree.  It doesn't matter which goalie plays at a legit starter's level as long as at least one of them gets there.  (And if it's Reimer doing it, fine.  Who does it doesn't matter (ST, it matters greatly for the LT); but that the Sabres get it absolutely matters.)

And if they don't get that level of goaltending, Mr. Adams might be looking to the employment section of the newspaper next spring.  (PLEASE don't let that be the case.  REALLY don't want to have to see another attempt at a rebuild.)

@dudacek has said it before, and it's accurate.  Don't know if Adams will get it (playoffs) done this year; but the thought of the team not doing it is seriously depressing because it means these guys aren't as good as management believed/believes they are.  And that augers more "suffering."  We've had too dang much of it already the past dozen years +.

Can UPL play at a Vasilevskiey level for a large portion of the season? I don't think so. But what I'm more confident of is that his baseline level of play should be at a consistently solid to good level. I'm basing that projection on what I saw from him last year for an extended period of time. Can I say for sure that he will do that? No. No one can. 

What I also expect is better team defense based on the improvement from the reconstituted lower lines.  I also expect that with Samuelsson back in the lineup and with the addition of a more comfortable Byram, better blueline play. This is a good group. It's far from being a muscular group but it is an excellent skating group with enough grit coming from Samuelsson, Clifton, Dahlin, and to a lesser extent Power. In general, this is a more well-rounded group whose collective play should help the goalie in net. With Lindy behind the bench there should be more consistent responsible two-way play. That's another factor that should help our goalies.

As far as who will end up being our primary goalie between UPL and Levi, assuming it comes down to that. Let them compete and determine their role. What's likely is that injuries will become less of a spoiling factor because of the added depth. 

To put things in perspective, compare our goalie and blueline situation a few years back to what it is now? Both of those groups have significantly been upgraded. (My opinion.) I'm fairly positive (not excessively confident) about the upcoming season. TBD. 

 

[JohnC]

On 7/19/2024 at 3:22 PM, PerreaultForever said:

Loser points are key for any team. I also think this team is built fairly well for gaining extra points in OT with shootout skills and open ice speed. It's an area we should technically do very well in. The trick is getting to OT, getting that late tying goal or hanging on to a lead or tie. Net front will be the key there. That has to be Lindy's #1 concern both ends of the rink. 

 

 

Great point.

This team needs to get greater net presence. It's current inability to do so demonstrated that the makeup of the team was inadequate and too inclined to play at the perimeters. I thought that Benson and Greenway were two of our best inside players. That's not good enough. I'm hoping that Lindy will instill and require a different mindset in that critical area of the game. 

[Night Train]

Caps were bad but got in to the playoffs because they got to OT far more often to get that 1 point. 

 Sabres were busy flunking the first period and playing from behind most games. No need to visit Baker Street. 

 Our so called stars all slumped. Bounce back with Ruff pushing them ? We can only watch and hope.  

[PerreaultForever]

11 hours ago, Night Train said:

Caps were bad but got in to the playoffs because they got to OT far more often to get that 1 point. 

 Sabres were busy flunking the first period and playing from behind most games. No need to visit Baker Street. 

 Our so called stars all slumped. Bounce back with Ruff pushing them ? We can only watch and hope.  

That's the difference, or one of the key differences, between a veteran team and a bunch of green kids. I've said it before and will continue to say it, youngest team in the league is not an accomplishment. 

[thewookie1]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

That's the difference, or one of the key differences, between a veteran team and a bunch of green kids. I've said it before and will continue to say it, youngest team in the league is not an accomplishment. 

Well it also isn't something to lose yourself over. It doesn't exactly make a ton of sense to make roster decisions purely off of age.

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Well it also isn't something to lose yourself over. It doesn't exactly make a ton of sense to make roster decisions purely off of age.

Nobody would say to do that either. False argument. 

The argument has always been how Adams chose to construct the roster. He said several times his plan was for them to grow together as a group and become leaders. The problem is that takes a long time and there is no guarantee that they will become "leaders". A balanced roster has always been the model of success around the league. Always. 

Next season's roster is slightly more balanced, and the young guys are a year older, but it remains to be seen if it will finally come together or not. 

[dudacek]

Kids (18-23)

Benson, Power, Peterka, Levi, Quinn, Byram, Cozens, Krebs,

Prime (24-29)

Dahlin, Samuelsson, McLeod, Jokiharju, Luukkonen, Malenstyn, Bryson, Thompson, Greenway, Gilbert, Tuch, Aube-Kubel, Clifton, Lafferty,

 

Veteran (30+)

Zucker, Reimer

 

A little deeper look shows that by January, that the 11 italicized players — about half the team — will be 23, 24, or 25.

Edited July 22 by dudacek

[PerreaultForever]

In other words, a complete lack of veterans. 

The question becomes will the "prime" players coalesce into a solid unit/core with leadership or will it be a rudderless ship again. Remains to be seen. Optimists and pessimists and all that sort of thing. 

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

In other words, a complete lack of veterans. 

The question becomes will the "prime" players coalesce into a solid unit/core with leadership or will it be a rudderless ship again. Remains to be seen. Optimists and pessimists and all that sort of thing. 

And there’s the whole thing about what makes a veteran.

Dahlin is 24 and has played more than 400 games but never played a playoff game.

Byram has been around 4 seasons and played a key role on a Stanley Cup winner. He’s also 23 and has only 160ish regular season games played.

Whatever their age and experience, most of them need to show some maturity.

 

Edited July 22 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

If you define veteran by age and not experience, well... that's flawed. 

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Nobody would say to do that either. False argument. 

The argument has always been how Adams chose to construct the roster. He said several times his plan was for them to grow together as a group and become leaders. The problem is that takes a long time and there is no guarantee that they will become "leaders". A balanced roster has always been the model of success around the league. Always. 

Next season's roster is slightly more balanced, and the young guys are a year older, but it remains to be seen if it will finally come together or not. 

Adams was more or less stuck with this model. Murray and Botts had more or less assured that. 
 

Balance is ideal but there really isn’t a sure fire way to acquire good to great middle aged talent without either throwing ridiculous money or trading for them. Issue is trading for them, especially at that point would of only exasperated the problems since we didn’t have much of a pool to draw from already.

1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

In other words, a complete lack of veterans. 

The question becomes will the "prime" players coalesce into a solid unit/core with leadership or will it be a rudderless ship again. Remains to be seen. Optimists and pessimists and all that sort of thing. 

The issue there is where are you planning to put them and how are you getting them with any semblance of relevance? To improve the team and gain vet presence simultaneously isn’t exactly a walk in the park. Jokiharju’s spot could certainly be used but who’s out there where’d we’d at minimum be staying level impact wise while adding experience? All while convincing them that they should devote what little remains of their career to help lead kids to the playoffs. We tried that last year with Erik Johnson. 
 

More or less you’d have to find a player with a Cup Ring on the tail end of his career looking to play for fun and enjoys leading while also still being a solid player. Effectively a Brian Gionta but a tad bigger. Honestly could we just go back in time and bring Gionta back with us, or even perhaps Vanek or Pominville. This is the team stage where that sort of relevant vet player would work well for the team. Zucker will certainly help if he still has a bit more gas in the tank. If Pavelski didn’t want to retire I’d say go get him but he started to show his age in the playoffs. 
 

If they want to swing Muel and Rosen to CGY for Weegar that might be helpful for this purpose.

[GASabresIUFAN]

This thread asks the fundamental question, what needs to happen for this team to make the playoffs.

1) There are internal questions

Offense:

A) EV offense. Two seasons ago our EV offense was the among the best in the NHL but it wasn’t enough to get the team into the playoffs.  Last season, the EV offense fell off significantly and we fell further away from the playoffs.  For this team to make the playoffs the EV offense must get better get back closer to the 22/23 offense.   I’m relatively confident that the top 6 will show some rebound, but I’m not sure the bottom 6 will give us more.  Still any rebound will get us closer to the playoffs.

B) PP.  In 22/23 the PP was extremely effective for half a season (23% for the season). After that and through 23/24, the PP was boring predictable and ineffective (16% in 23/24).  Over the last 2 years, teams that execute at 22-23% or better nearly always make the playoffs.  Buffalo in 22/23 is one the exceptions.

Defense:

A) EV Defense.  In 22/23, despite one of the best offenses in the NHL, the team’s defense was horrendous.  The teams’ defense was so bad, the team had a negative differential. HDCA was among the worst in the NHL. The 23/24 team was marginally better, but still one of the worst in NHL in HDCA.  

B) PK.  Again it was terrible in 22/23.  At 73% it was in the bottom 5 in the NHL.  In 23/24 it was improved.  It went from terrible to middle of the road at just under 80% dropping from 61 ga to 49 ga.  Having at least a middle of the road PK would be nice.

Goaltending:  

This is the real area of improvement for the Sabres last year which lead to the huge drop in GA both EV and PK.  Sadly, it wasn’t great to start last season which dug a Sabres a hole they couldn’t get out of.  However, UPL ending up having an excellent year and marginally kept the Sabres in playoff contention through February.  However the entire goaltending still was just league average for the season.  

In 22/23 the Sabres save% was .890 (league ave .899). EV save% was .911 (league ave .920).

In 23/24 the Sabres save% was .899 (league ave .898). EV save% was .920 (league ave .920).

2) External questions?  Will any of last year’s playoff teams take a step back?  Will any of last year’s bottom feeders, besides Buffalo, take a step forward?  In the East over the last 2 seasons there hasn’t been much movement.  In the East, 6 of 8 playoffs teams repeated from 21/22 to 22/23 and 7/8 repeated from 22/23 to 23/24.

So what will it take for the Sabres to make the leap. The Offense, both at EV and PP, must get back to the above average performance.  It doesn’t have to be top 5 in the NHL, but 265+ goals will go along way to securing a playoff spot, assuming everything else, such as the goaltending,  EZ defense, and PK, remain league average or better.  We are looking for a differential of at least 20+ to break the 13 year playoff drought.  It would also be helpful if teams like the NYI, Car, TB and Wash take a step back.
 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If you define veteran by age and not experience, well... that's flawed. 

Agreed, but you can’t dismiss age entirely either.

It’s maturity and arrives at different times and different ways.

Power got engaged. Krebs has a kid due soon.

[French Collection]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Agreed, but you can’t dismiss age entirely either.

It’s maturity and arrives at different times and different ways.

Power got engaged. Krebs has a kid due soon.

Malenstyn is 26 but has only 105 GP, a quarter of Dahlin’s total.

[dudacek]

17 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Malenstyn is 26 but has only 105 GP, a quarter of Dahlin’s total.

Exactly. 

I think there are 2 streams and they’re both important

The first is on-ice experience: having enough games under your belt at NHL speed that you know what you can and cannot get away with during a game 

The 2nd is off-ice experience knowing the kinds of off-ice routines and behaviours that  can help maximize on-ice performance.

I think the Sabres can benefit from more experience, but I also strongly believe most of them have been around long enough that lack of experience is no longer a flaw, its a crutch. They’re beyond having a Gionta hold their hand.

24 and 200 games and you should be ready to stand on your own skates.

Zack Benson is a boy. Cozens, Dahlin, Samuelson, UPL, Thompson…? Young men who need to approach their vocation as such,

Edited July 22 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Agreed, but you can’t dismiss age entirely either.

It’s maturity and arrives at different times and different ways.

Power got engaged. Krebs has a kid due soon.

This has nothing to do with being a veteran hockey player. 

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This has nothing to do with being a veteran hockey player. 

.

I’m agreeing with you that being a veteran is more about experience than age.

But if it’s your contention that it’s solely about the number of games played, I think that’s equally as narrow

Being a veteran is really about a state of mind.

External factors, especially ones like these have everything to do with one’s approach to life and career

[Archie Lee]

It isn’t about the age, experience, talent or maturity of any specific player. The question is:  have they collectively reached a critical mass of these attributes that is needed for an NHL roster to be successful?

[Brawndo]

They need to spend more money on the cap. 
 

Over the past 4 years, teams spending bottom 10 have made the playoffs 3 total times.

0 teams in the bottom 5. 

What’s interesting is based on a stat of total number of points per actual dollars spent, the Sabres were ranked ninth in the league.

They are projected to be about 8 million under once their pending RFAs are signed, this probably puts them back into the bottom five in terms of spending again. 

 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

And there’s the whole thing about what makes a veteran.

Dahlin is 24 and has played more than 400 games but never played a playoff game.

Byram has been around 4 seasons and played a key role on a Stanley Cup winner. He’s also 23 and has only 160ish regular season games played.

Whatever their age and experience, most of them need to show some maturity.

 

You're arguing little points to deflect from the central point which is that Adams intentionally constructed an incredibly young roster lacking in veteran leadership. That is not how you do it and has never worked. Whether or not these guys have reached a level where they can provide good veteran leadership is the question since that's what we are left with. 

Arguing about how many games it takes to qualify as a "veteran" or if losers can be good veteran leaders or any details like that are deflections and somewhat subjective to say the least. 

[PerreaultForever]

8 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

They need to spend more money on the cap. 
 

Over the past 4 years, teams spending bottom 10 have made the playoffs 3 total times.

0 teams in the bottom 5. 

What’s interesting is based on a stat of total number of points per actual dollars spent, the Sabres were ranked ninth in the league.

They are projected to be about 8 million under once their pending RFAs are signed, this probably puts them back into the bottom five in terms of spending again. 

 

This is most definitely true. Cap floor teams vs. cap ceiling teams and all that. You don't get far by spending less than others and constantly planning for the "future". You do that and that "future" never comes.