Expectations for Zach Benson Year 2

[GASabresIUFAN]

According to Quanthockey.com Benson's 18 year old season was tied for the 58th best season by an 18 year old in NHL history.  His 30 points were tied with Doug Smith and decent Andrew McBain.  Immortals Gretzky, Hawerchuk and Crosby each had over 100 pts as 18 year old NHLers.  Housley is 9th with 66 pts.  Skinner has 63 pts at 18 (12th overall) and that is pretty much who he ended up being.  Our friend Tim Connolly had 34 pts at 18.

 Here are some recent comparables.

1) Kotkaniemi - 34 pts at 18 years old.  He struggled in year 2 and got send down.  The last 3 seasons have been 29, 43 & 27 pts for the former 3rd overall pick (2018)

2) Cole Sillinger - 31 pts at 18 years old.  Like Kotkaniemi, he struggled some in year 2 and got sent down.  He has 11 pts in year 2 (64  games), but rebounded last year with 32.  He was drafted 12 overall in 2021

3) Tim Stutzle - 29 points at 18.  Has really only blossomed since being drafted 3 overall in 2020.  Pts per season since 58, 90 and 70 last year.  

4) Pastrnak - 27 pts at 18.  Former 25th overall pick in 2014 is one of the best goal scorers and players in the NHL.  Career pts by season since 26, 70, 80, 81, 95, 48 (48 games), 77, 113, 110 last season.

5) Barkov - 24 pts (54 games) at 18.  Maybe the NHL best 2 way forward.  Pts per season since 36, 59, 52, 78, 96, 62 (66 gms), 58 (50 gms), 88, 78, and 80 

6) Kakko - 23 pts (66 games) at 18. The next seasons were 17 pts (48 gms), 18pts (43 gms), 40 pts in 22/23 and 19 pts last season (61 games).

7) Jack Hughes - 21 pts (61 games) at 18. Since then 31 (56 gms), 56 (49 gms), 99 and 74 (62 gms).

So what can we expect in year two?

I personally believe his counting stats will improve somewhat.  I'd like to see him get to 15g and 25a next year.  However, I also wouldn't be surprised if he struggles some in year 2.  I think he is probably better than Kotkaniemi, Sillinger and Kakko, but does he have the same upside as Hughes, Barkov or Stutzle?  Probably not.  

 

Edited July 15 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

19g, 28a for Benson 

[French Collection]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

According to Quanthockey.com Benson's 18 year old season was tied for the 58th best season by an 18 year old in NHL history.  His 30 points were tied with Doug Smith and decent Andrew McBain.  Immortals Gretzky, Hawerchuk and Crosby each had over 100 pts as 18 year old NHLers.  Housley is 9th with 66 pts.  Skinner has 63 pts at 18 (12th overall) and that is pretty much who he ended up being.  Our friend Tim Connolly had 34 pts at 18.

 Here are some recent comparables.

1) Kotkaniemi - 34 pts at 18 years old.  He struggled in year 2 and got send down.  The last 3 seasons have been 29, 43 & 27 pts for the former 3rd overall pick (2018)

2) Cole Sillinger - 31 pts at 18 years old.  Like Kotkaniemi, he struggled some in year 2 and got sent down.  He has 11 pts in year 2 (64  games), but rebounded last year with 32.  He was drafted 12 overall in 2021

3) Tim Stutzle - 29 points at 18.  Has really only blossomed since being drafted 3 overall in 2020.  Pts per season since 58, 90 and 70 last year.  

4) Pastrnak - 27 pts at 18.  Former 25th overall pick in 2014 is one of the best goal scorers and players in the NHL.  Career pts by season since 26, 70, 80, 81, 95, 48 (48 games), 77, 113, 110 last season.

5) Barkov - 24 pts (54 games) at 18.  Maybe the NHL best 2 way forward.  Pts per season since 36, 59, 52, 78, 96, 62 (66 gms), 58 (50 gms), 88, 78, and 80 

6) Kakko - 23 pts (66 games) at 18.  40 pts in 22/23 and 24 pts last season (61 games).

7) Jack Hughes - 21 pts (61 games) at 18. Since then 31 (56 gms), 56 (49 gms), 99 and 74 (62 gms).

So what can we expect in year two?

I personally believe his counting stats will improve somewhat.  I'd like to see him get to 15g and 25a next year.  However, I also wouldn't be surprised if he struggles some in year 2.  I think he is probably better than Kotkaniemi, Sillinger and Kakko, but does he have the same upside as Hughes, Barkov or Stutzle?  Probably not.  

 

Now you’re scaring me with comparisons to some of those guys.

My take is that he is more cerebral than most of them, especially Kakko, Kotkaniemi and Sillinger. He doesn’t have the size but Benson’s two way game is more like Barkov.

He put up 98 points in 60 WHL games so my expectation is a bump in offense closer to 40-45 points, especially if he gets top six minutes and PP2.

[Taro T]

16g.  22a.  And very good advanced stat metrics as he focuses more on his own end than the offensive zone.

[Scottysabres]

34g 64a

Benson breaks out, terrorizing the league with new linemates that strikes panic and fear in to opponents. No less than 9 league starting goaltenders commit funds to long term therapy.

Buffalo 47 wins, 9ot losses, 26 losses

[DarthEbriate]

Ben says Benson scores:

[Mr. Allen]

20-20 

[PerreaultForever]

I honestly expect a sophomore slump and I'm not sure how he will adjust to Ruff's system. How much freedom and development time Ruff gives him will be interesting to see. I think long term Benson will be a good, very good, player, but if he can avoid a second year fall back I will be quite amazed and impressed. 

[PerreaultForever]

52 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

34g 64a

Benson breaks out, terrorizing the league with new linemates that strikes panic and fear in to opponents. No less than 9 league starting goaltenders commit funds to long term therapy.

Buffalo 47 wins, 9ot losses, 26 losses

Cocaine? Crack? Meth? MDMA? LSD? 

What are you on, and can I have some?

[Weave]

Pump the breaks.  Tyler Myers was a Calder candidate.  This kid needs room to breathe and grow.  I hope Lindy shelters him with one of the new vets.  Might ding his points but he’ll be better for it.

[BullBuchanan]

14g 26a

[...]

If he hasn't grown a full inch and gained 15lbs of pure muscle then he's a bust.

[Night Train]

I think 15 goals is reasonable at his age. Still a teen and I cannot project him to some unreasonable number yet. I see upside. 

[RochesterExpat]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

I honestly expect a sophomore slump and I'm not sure how he will adjust to Ruff's system. How much freedom and development time Ruff gives him will be interesting to see. I think long term Benson will be a good, very good, player, but if he can avoid a second year fall back I will be quite amazed and impressed. 

I can see a sophomore slump from the coaching change, but I also think Lindy is going to appreciate Benson’s drive and I think Benson is a coachable player. It just might be a tough start for him. I expect him to really come into his game once the adjustment period (or sophomore slump) ends. Buffalo can’t send him to Rochester though so he’s going to need to figure it out fast.

I’m going to say he has 68GP with 13G and 24A for 37P. He has a slow start, an extended stretch around Thanksgiving without production, and sits in the press box for a bit on at least two occasions. Then he turns it on in the latter half of the season.

So his first 30 games will be something like 2 goals and 7 assists. The next 38 will be 11 goals and 17 assists.

Edited July 12 by RochesterExpat

[K-9]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I honestly expect a sophomore slump and I'm not sure how he will adjust to Ruff's system. How much freedom and development time Ruff gives him will be interesting to see. I think long term Benson will be a good, very good, player, but if he can avoid a second year fall back I will be quite amazed and impressed. 

Benson is made for how Lindy prefers to play. 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Benson is made for how Lindy prefers to play. 

This I agree with. I'd take that a step further and say the same would hold true for most coaches, because he works hard and pays attention to the little things.

The only way he doesn't have the coach in his corner is if the coach is fixated on a size/strength/bullying game that virtually no plays any more.

I think the question for Benson this year rest more with opportunity.

As the roster sits right now, he's either got a spot in the top six, or on a 3rd line with a decent centre in McLeod. Under those circumstances, I expect his point totals to rise.

If the Sabres add a top 6 winger though, he is the most likely candidate to see a resulting drop in opportunities.

I absolutely love the way the kid plays hockey because he already plays like a reliable 3rd-line vet. I'm really curious how much offensive upside is there and how quickly it will emerge because we only caught glimpses of it last year.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

This I agree with. I'd take that a step further and say the same would hold true for most coaches, because he works hard and pays attention to the little things.

The only way he doesn't have the coach in his corner is if the coach is fixated on a size/strength/bullying game that virtually no plays any more.

I think the question for Benson this year rest more with opportunity.

As the roster sits right now, he's either got a spot in the top six, or on a 3rd line with a decent centre in McLeod. Under those circumstances, I expect his point totals to rise.

If the Sabres add a top 6 winger though, he is the most likely candidate to see a resulting drop in opportunities.

I absolutely love the way the kid plays hockey because he already plays like a reliable 3rd-line vet. I'm really curious how much offensive upside is there and how quickly it will emerge because we only caught glimpses of it last year.

Benson is going to light it up.

[thewookie1]

My prediction, if Benson starts on Line 2, he’ll take off in Ruff’s system like a duck to water. He’ll effectively continue off his strong back half of last year while now playing in a system even more suited to his hard working mindset. He’ll start hot, likely trail off and get put on the 3rd line by December then light up again in February when the lights get hotter and every game means more. 
 

My guess would be about 45 to 50pts probably in the realm of 17 goals and 28 assists

[K-9]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

This I agree with. I'd take that a step further and say the same would hold true for most coaches, because he works hard and pays attention to the little things.

The only way he doesn't have the coach in his corner is if the coach is fixated on a size/strength/bullying game that virtually no plays any more.

I think the question for Benson this year rest more with opportunity.

As the roster sits right now, he's either got a spot in the top six, or on a 3rd line with a decent centre in McLeod. Under those circumstances, I expect his point totals to rise.

If the Sabres add a top 6 winger though, he is the most likely candidate to see a resulting drop in opportunities.

I absolutely love the way the kid plays hockey because he already plays like a reliable 3rd-line vet. I'm really curious how much offensive upside is there and how quickly it will emerge because we only caught glimpses of it last year.

I’d love to see him with Cozens and Quinn. 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, K-9 said:

Benson is made for how Lindy prefers to play. 

I don't disagree with this. I think you've probably noticed I've said before he is my favourite of the youngsters, and I see good things in his future but he's just a kid. It will be quite remarkable if he just has a linear rise. 

[JoeSchmoe]

Tears his Achilles in off season training incident... Comes back in garbage time and looks real good, giving us hope for next year.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Tears his Achilles in off season training incident... Comes back in garbage time and looks real good, giving us hope for next year.

Wow!

[B-U-F-F-A-L-O]

13 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

According to Quanthockey.com Benson's 18 year old season was tied for the 58th best season by an 18 year old in NHL history.  His 30 points were tied with Doug Smith and decent Andrew McBain.  Immortals Gretzky, Hawerchuk and Crosby each had over 100 pts as 18 year old NHLers.  Housley is 9th with 66 pts.  Skinner has 63 pts at 18 (12th overall) and that is pretty much who he ended up being.  Our friend Tim Connolly had 34 pts at 18.

 Here are some recent comparables.

1) Kotkaniemi - 34 pts at 18 years old.  He struggled in year 2 and got send down.  The last 3 seasons have been 29, 43 & 27 pts for the former 3rd overall pick (2018)

2) Cole Sillinger - 31 pts at 18 years old.  Like Kotkaniemi, he struggled some in year 2 and got sent down.  He has 11 pts in year 2 (64  games), but rebounded last year with 32.  He was drafted 12 overall in 2021

3) Tim Stutzle - 29 points at 18.  Has really only blossomed since being drafted 3 overall in 2020.  Pts per season since 58, 90 and 70 last year.  

4) Pastrnak - 27 pts at 18.  Former 25th overall pick in 2014 is one of the best goal scorers and players in the NHL.  Career pts by season since 26, 70, 80, 81, 95, 48 (48 games), 77, 113, 110 last season.

5) Barkov - 24 pts (54 games) at 18.  Maybe the NHL best 2 way forward.  Pts per season since 36, 59, 52, 78, 96, 62 (66 gms), 58 (50 gms), 88, 78, and 80 

6) Kakko - 23 pts (66 games) at 18.  40 pts in 22/23 and 24 pts last season (61 games).

7) Jack Hughes - 21 pts (61 games) at 18. Since then 31 (56 gms), 56 (49 gms), 99 and 74 (62 gms).

So what can we expect in year two?

I personally believe his counting stats will improve somewhat.  I'd like to see him get to 15g and 25a next year.  However, I also wouldn't be surprised if he struggles some in year 2.  I think he is probably better than Kotkaniemi, Sillinger and Kakko, but does he have the same upside as Hughes, Barkov or Stutzle?  Probably not.  

 

I’m hoping for 15g and 30a…. He is a major lynchpin for this team, imho…. If KA can’t pull the trigger on a major upgrade in the top 6 the guy who is most unknown, youngest and least experienced is the guy I’m hoping wins the #2 LW job. It’s important imho,  the cozens line needs an elite passer and assist man and Benson is it. They need his two-way play too. In addition, the third line could use a scorer, enter Zucker. I think it’s the 30a that is the key number. If he play good two-way and get those assists, it means to me that that line is doing well and blending and Benson himself is adjusting to the NHL and his new linemates. I think if the line is playing well, the goals will come. 15 isn’t unreadable for such a talented line. If Quinn and Casey staye healthy they will be excellent linemates for Benson, it really is up to Zach to take that line to a new level, imho (if Benson wins the job). I hope he does….

[B-U-F-F-A-L-O]

11 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

I can see a sophomore slump from the coaching change, but I also think Lindy is going to appreciate Benson’s drive and I think Benson is a coachable player. It just might be a tough start for him. I expect him to really come into his game once the adjustment period (or sophomore slump) ends. Buffalo can’t send him to Rochester though so he’s going to need to figure it out fast.

I’m going to say he has 68GP with 13G and 24A for 37P. He has a slow start, an extended stretch around Thanksgiving without production, and sits in the press box for a bit on at least two occasions. Then he turns it on in the latter half of the season.

So his first 30 games will be something like 2 goals and 7 assists. The next 38 will be 11 goals and 17 assists.

Who do you envision taking his spot?  We really don’t have a suitable #2 or 3 LW to replace him right now. I think if the Sabres pull off the huge trade for an excellent top 6 benson’s Ive time plummets, if we don’t, I think our best injury replacements for top 6 players are Rosen and Kulich. They are also young unknowns but perhaps they have a great summer and an even better fall and we have ourselves some depth? We’ll find out this fall…

if we’re lucky, trade or no trade, the Sabres gel ths year and become a great team.  I think it CAN happen either way though probably the best bet is a huge trade where add Tkachuk and a mean, defensive RHD for Joker,  Benson,  Kulich, Helenius and  draft picks….and then we win the cup in Lindy’s first year….

[Demoted]

We need him to break out so we can trade him to a contending team.

Edited July 14 by Demoted