Sports Illustrated: Sabres have most overrated prospect system in NHL

[B-U-F-F-A-L-O]

2 minutes ago, B-U-F-F-A-L-O said:

I think it is just as dumb to call prospects Rosen, Östlund and Nyberg bottom slicers as it is to say they are absolutely top sixers. We just don’t know yet. Any one of those three could turn out to be the best player since LaFontaine….

And I believe the Sabres have the best collection of D-men in the NHL and none of them is old or even close to it. It is unheard of to have two #1 D-men on the same team and we have three. All under 24! That’s nuts. But the talent doesn’t end there, no! We have a solid six starters lined up for this season ad even have a decent 7th. But that’s only the beginning!

We have: RYJO , Novikov, Komarov, McCarthy, Strbak and so many others. I can’t recall a time when the Sabres ever had a group like this, this deep and I’m not even the seven on the Sabres. We have excellent defensive depth.

 

And then there’s goalie! We happen to have three solid goaltenders under contract right now and one of them has just entered his peak years and another is not far behind. We have an excellent goaltender room right now.

But wait! There’s more!  We have four more drafted goalies developing in our system. I cannot recall a time where the Sabres were this deep at goalie.

And going back to forward, this is our first year of the rebuild being over, year #1. We have all 12 forward spots filled. We have a decent 13 F in Krebs. Rosen and Kulich are right behind Benson as speak. On top of that, I’m positive KA is on the prowl looking to upgrade the top 12, why? Because we are still a little young. Not because we’re too short on talent. Though I think KA is looking for an all-star level talent as we speak. Why? Because we can. Because we have too many prospects to hold to. What do you do? You trade several kids for a Star! I think if one comes available, especially if he plays in the west, that the Sabres go out and get him.

And maybe even that vet, gritty, stay at home D-man to boot. Why?

Because this roster is ready and we have the assets. Imagine if we got a true allstar LW….Lord, we’d be very, very good and we’d even have definite top six depth…. We’d have to figure out where to play Benson unless we traded him…

I think our lines and pairs are pretty solid right now and I think by mid-fall both Rosen and Kulich could be ready to fill in on the top six when injuries appear…. I really like our lines. It is going to be totally different this year with having the ability to play two outstanding defensive lines with grit…. This, plus Ruff, are going to change everything. To let our top six focus way more on scoring goals. And not having to come up with the defensive stops too. Not worry about the PK, not have to block shots all the time, to play less minutes as well. It is going to make such a huge difference for the top six.

Right now, the wildcards are Benson, Rosen and Kulich because they are still very young and inexperienced. And Benson, Rosen and Kulich (hopefully they’re working on their muscle mass as I type) need to gain more muscle all over….I do wonder about training techniques as I think Rosen should probably be stronger by now yet doesn’t appear to be… I mean, where’s the isometric excercise and high protein diet? The cross-training plan? Hopefully all three are at least five #s heavier than they were in April. All muscle too..

 

[Big Guava]

20 hours ago, dudacek said:

The "stars" of the Sabres system are Power, Quinn, Peterka, Benson and Levi and they're already here.

The strength of the next group is not on the high end, it's the depth.

Anyone waiting for our system to save us is going to be disappointed.

We don't need it to save us...we have plenty of talent already here, now we just need to have someone out it together properly.

You could give people the exact same ingredients and one could make something that is barely edible and the other could make a gourmet meal. No different with coaching.

Ruff is going to get a lot more out of this group than Granato could.

Edited July 13 by Big Guava

[Gatorman0519]

For years we’ve been hearing about our supposedly loaded prospect potential. Here we are in reality a bottom team. Where are all these elite guys? 

[jad1]

1 hour ago, Gatorman0519 said:

For years we’ve been hearing about our supposedly loaded prospect potential. Here we are in reality a bottom team. Where are all these elite guys? 

Playing for Florida and Vegas.

[Night Train]

22 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

This article is bang on. This year's draft aside, we just traded away our only prospect that's realistically capable of playing as a contributing top 6 forward. Beyond Kulich, we don't have any legit NHL'ers. 

A reach of epic proportions.  Brainwashed. 

[klos1963]

On 7/12/2024 at 8:20 AM, Second Line Center said:

Sabres Have Most Overrated Prospect System in NHL
 

Looking at their current group, this has to be the most overrated one in the NHL. Tony Ferrari of The Hockey News, DobberProspects, and The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler are all high on their system. Wheeler even ranked the Sabres number one in his 2024 prospect group rankings. 

There is talent in the Sabres’ pipeline, there’s no use denying that. Are they a top-5 prospect system in the league? Absolutely not. The reality is that they are barely top-10.

To the Sabres’ credit, they are developing several prospects well. Kulich and Devon Levi are still top prospects in the NHL. Zach Benson graduated to the NHL as many anticipated. He’s only 19, but he should be a mainstay in Buffalo for the next few seasons, so he’s no longer deserving of the prospect moniker. 

After that, the outlook is less encouraging. They have several players with NHL upside, but not with the potential of Savoie, Benson, Kulich, or Levi.

Isak Rosen and Noah Östlund are call-up candidates this season, but they project as bottom-six forwards at the NHL level. 

Maxim Strbak is the team’s top defensive prospect. He had a terrific freshman season with Michigan State University. At the NHL level, he will most likely be a bottom-pairing defender who makes a living killing penalties and blocking shots.

The Sabres have talent in their system, but looking at who is on the way, it’s hard to determine who the difference maker will be. They have pieces to be better, sure, but not the elite talent so many believe. Benson has the potential to be elite, but can he carry the Sabres to the postseason? Can Devon Levi surpass Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen as the starting netminder? Can Konsta Helenius, Jiri Kulich, or Isak Rosen force their way into the top-six? 

Unfortunately for the Sabres, contenders don’t have this many unanswered questions. The potential, talent, and reason for hope are endless in Buffalo, but that doesn’t change that their prospect group is the most overrated in the league.

 

https://www.si.com/onsi/breakaway/prospects-feed/posts/buffalo-sabres-most-overrated-prospect-system-nhl

 

My issues:

Not calling Benson a prospect isn’t fair.  Or Power.  
 

What other - give us 3 or 4 teams - that are better and why?

 

Can't argue we’ve been hearing this for years and it hasn’t led to anything tho.  

How is Power a prospect? Will be a third year starter in the league with an $8 million a year contract. 

[krakensabr56390]

The issue with articles like this is that they do not reflect extremely successful prospects going to pro quickly. That’s why these are less accurate than top players under 22 or 23… For example, if you pick in the top three a couple years in a row, most of your prospects will be the best in the game, but they won’t be prospects anymore because they’re playing in the NHL. The best prospect year is not actually reflective of you how well you draft or quality of uber high end picks - it’s the guys still not in the nhl and how good they are. It’s sort of like upgrading or downgrading a teams future based on a technicality… The technicality being that the best players probably can’t be named prospect anymore even if they’re the same age as or younger than other players in other systems happened to not be good enough for the NHL yet

[krakensabr56390]

4 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

For years we’ve been hearing about our supposedly loaded prospect potential. Here we are in reality a bottom team. Where are all these elite guys? 

They are just about to hit the nhl but not there yet- so the literally besides benson ( or savioe who just got us a legit 3c) have had no impact on the team yet. That’s where they are…it’s hockey they mostly don’t have any high level impact until 3-5 years after they are drafted  

Edited July 13 by krakensabr56390

[GASabresIUFAN]

34 minutes ago, klos1963 said:

How is Power a prospect? Will be a third year starter in the league with an $8 million a year contract. 

He's not.  He has crossed the 160 game threshold to be waiver exempt.  Therefore he can't be sent down other than a conditioning assignment.

I typically use a broad definition for prospects.  I use 24 and under age wise and still waivers exempt.  Mitts and TNT being sent down after 100+ NHL games taught me that some guys take a little longer to find their NHL sea legs.  I find using an artificial number like 100 NHL games or one full NHL season to be to restrictive and does not take into account the real development curve for some players.  I also find using an age like 22 or 23 also to be to restrictive, especially with goalies.  UPL finally established himself in the NHL at age 24.

To me Levi (22) with 30 NHL games and Benson (19) with 71 NHL games are still prospects.  

[Gatorman0519]

56 minutes ago, krakensabr56390 said:

They are just about to hit the nhl but not there yet- so the literally besides benson ( or savioe who just got us a legit 3c) have had no impact on the team yet. That’s where they are…it’s hockey they mostly don’t have any high level impact until 3-5 years after they are drafted  

But these types prospect ratings have been going on for over 10 years. 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He's not.  He has crossed the 160 game threshold to be waiver exempt.  Therefore he can't be sent down other than a conditioning assignment.

I typically use a broad definition for prospects.  I use 24 and under age wise and still waivers exempt.  Mitts and TNT being sent down after 100+ NHL games taught me that some guys take a little longer to find their NHL sea legs.  I find using an artificial number like 100 NHL games or one full NHL season to be to restrictive and does not take into account the real development curve for some players.  I also find using an age like 22 or 23 also to be to restrictive, especially with goalies.  UPL finally established himself in the NHL at age 24.

To me Levi (22) with 30 NHL games and Benson (19) with 71 NHL games are still prospects.  

Changes in coaches also factor into this. Thompson for example, didn't find his groove until Granato tried him at center and we saw that how he prefers to play has him better fitted to that position. Ruff is going to demand different things and some young guys will thrive and others may struggle. We could still see lots of changes and Benson's role is most definitely unknown. 

[sabresparaavida]

10 hours ago, B-U-F-F-A-L-O said:

And I believe the Sabres have the best collection of D-men in the NHL and none of them is old or even close to it. It is unheard of to have two #1 D-men on the same team and we have three. All under 24! That’s nuts. But the talent doesn’t end there, no! We have a solid six starters lined up for this season ad even have a decent 7th. But that’s only the beginning!

We have: RYJO , Novikov, Komarov, McCarthy, Strbak and so many others. I can’t recall a time when the Sabres ever had a group like this, this deep and I’m not even the seven on the Sabres. We have excellent defensive depth.

 

And then there’s goalie! We happen to have three solid goaltenders under contract right now and one of them has just entered his peak years and another is not far behind. We have an excellent goaltender room right now.

But wait! There’s more!  We have four more drafted goalies developing in our system. I cannot recall a time where the Sabres were this deep at goalie.

And going back to forward, this is our first year of the rebuild being over, year #1. We have all 12 forward spots filled. We have a decent 13 F in Krebs. Rosen and Kulich are right behind Benson as speak. On top of that, I’m positive KA is on the prowl looking to upgrade the top 12, why? Because we are still a little young. Not because we’re too short on talent. Though I think KA is looking for an all-star level talent as we speak. Why? Because we can. Because we have too many prospects to hold to. What do you do? You trade several kids for a Star! I think if one comes available, especially if he plays in the west, that the Sabres go out and get him.

And maybe even that vet, gritty, stay at home D-man to boot. Why?

Because this roster is ready and we have the assets. Imagine if we got a true allstar LW….Lord, we’d be very, very good and we’d even have definite top six depth…. We’d have to figure out where to play Benson unless we traded him…

I think our lines and pairs are pretty solid right now and I think by mid-fall both Rosen and Kulich could be ready to fill in on the top six when injuries appear…. I really like our lines. It is going to be totally different this year with having the ability to play two outstanding defensive lines with grit…. This, plus Ruff, are going to change everything. To let our top six focus way more on scoring goals. And not having to come up with the defensive stops too. Not worry about the PK, not have to block shots all the time, to play less minutes as well. It is going to make such a huge difference for the top six.

Right now, the wildcards are Benson, Rosen and Kulich because they are still very young and inexperienced. And Benson, Rosen and Kulich (hopefully they’re working on their muscle mass as I type) need to gain more muscle all over….I do wonder about training techniques as I think Rosen should probably be stronger by now yet doesn’t appear to be… I mean, where’s the isometric excercise and high protein diet? The cross-training plan? Hopefully all three are at least five #s heavier than they were in April. All muscle too..

 

Dahlin is a #1D. Who are the other two? I assume you’re talking about Power and Byram, but neither is a number 1 defender at this point in time. Maybe both have potential to be that at some point in their career, but right now they’re more like 2nd pairing defenders.

Also, the statement that this is the first year of the rebuild being over is just moving the goalposts. Playoffs were the expectation last year, they just failed. 

[SabreFinn]

I think that it is just how the writer looks at it. As someone already wrote we have a deep prospect pool. On the other hand, I think last time a team won Stanley cup without a forward drafted top 5 in it was 2012. In that case the writers opinion is unfortunately true.

[SwampD]

Who F*****g cares?! Nothing in the off-season matters! No rankings. No trades. It’s all bullshizz!

Win in the regular season and nobody f*****g cares!

Edited July 13 by SwampD
, to an !

[LabattBlue]

13 hours ago, B-U-F-F-A-L-O said:

And I believe the Sabres have the best collection of D-men in the NHL and none of them is old or even close to it. It is unheard of to have two #1 D-men on the same team and we have three.

Funniest thing I have read all day. 😂

[pi2000]

define "prospect"

Under 23yo Buffalo is top tier.

If you only include the guys in Rochester or junior, then yeah it's good but not top 5.

[Archie Lee]

It’s one person’s opinion. And he starts out by acknowledging that there are other people in the field who rate Buffalo’s prospect pool much higher than he does. And he states Buffalo has a top 10 prospect pool in his view, though barely so (9th or 10th I assume). The “most over-rated” line just seems like the hook to me.

The obvious knock against our pool is what he identifies, the lack of a clearly elite, difference-making, type of player. The depth is very good and it shifts to excellent when you consider those that have graduated recently to the NHL.  But there is no obvious star coming. 

I’m not worried (yet) about the lack of a clear star. For one, I think Dahlin fits that bill. Thompson might rebound along with Tuch and be star-adjacent.  I think Cozens, Power, Quinn, Peterka, Byram and Benson have legit shots, if maybe long-shots, to be stars. I think we have 4-5 more such players coming. That’s 10-11 long-shots. I don’t think it is unrealistic that we have 2-4 Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Robert Thomas, Josh Morrissey level stars (or higher), who haven’t hit yet. Still lots of time to be patient with individual players (less so with the team as a whole). 

[MISabresFan]

Prospect, also known as a "minor leaguer" or "farmhand," is any player whose rights are owned by a professional team but who has yet to surpass a threshold where they achieve rookie status.

To be considered a rookie, a player must not have played in more than 25 NHL games in any preceding seasons, nor in six or more NHL games in each of any two preceding seasons. 

Any player at least 26 (by September 15th of that season) is not considered a rookie.

[Cranky old man]

Nothing like the off off off off season. How about an analysis of European players in the Sabre pipeline. We could be number one with a bullet in Stockholm.