Sabres scoring rates and the 2024 season

[LGR4GM]

Much has been brought up about Jeff Skinner exiting while basically not being replaced. By replaced I mean we can't really say "oh Jeff left but we got X" and this also applies in some ways to Mittelstadt although now we can point at McLeod. With that said I did a couple of things. First I went and looked at the Rangers current lineup to get a feel for what the very top of the conference looks like. They ended up as the best in the conference last year so we use them as the pinnacle of where we want to get to. Then I looked at the 2024 roster and used their previous years pts per 60 rates. Now yes we should probably average several years and I could spend my entire day doing that, but we are just trying to get a feel here. We don't know about the coaching and how it will help, so we are better to error on the side of caution. 

The NYR are about to ice a team that has 1.79p/60 as its scoring rate. If you don't want the average, it adds up to 37.6 but I think the overall scoring rate of 1.79 is more useful. Buffalo with its current 2024 roster is set to run at around 1.54 p/60 or roughly 14% below what the Rangers are at. Now what I found interesting is that the 2023 Sabres come out around 1.52 p/60 when you specifically sort by games played and take the top 21 (I did use Quinn though who falls below that threshold because it just made sense, sorry Robinson). On paper at least that means in the aggregate, Buffalo did replace Skinner and Mittelstadt's scoring rates. 

Rangers 24: 1.79 p/60

Sabres 24: 1.54 p/60

Sabres 23: 1.52 p/60

The point of the thread is what do you do here? We are 14% below the Rangers as the best in the East. There might be enough here to get into the playoffs but it will be close. In goals for, the Red Wings, Penguins, Devils outproduced the Sabres last year. Washington and the Islanders are the only 2 teams at or below Buffalo's goals for that made the playoffs. I did not pull and calculate all of their p/60s based on their current rosters but Buffalo is currently barely better in terms of scoring punch this season. Yes Lindy Ruff will impact that positively for a lot of players and Jack Quinn and 2nd yr Zach Benson will help the overall goals a bit, but the question is do they have enough? The answer right now on July 12th, seems to be not unless we see a jump in scoring from some key guys. We can have basically no injuries. A lot of this has already been said but I wanted to break it down. Buffalo is slightly better than last years team, but it is within the margin of error. We probably replaced Mitts and Skinner in the aggregate but it doesn't really push up much. We are a player short. 

You replace Peyton Krebs and his 1 p/60 with an average top 6 guy at 2.0 and Buffalo goes from 1.54 to 1.59 p/60 and truthfully, over a full season that is probably the extra cushion you need to get in. Otherwise you are relying on Kulich to come up and be useful in the top 6 which is possible but not what you wanna bet on. 

[French Collection]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Much has been brought up about Jeff Skinner exiting while basically not being replaced. By replaced I mean we can't really say "oh Jeff left but we got X" and this also applies in some ways to Mittelstadt although now we can point at McLeod. With that said I did a couple of things. First I went and looked at the Rangers current lineup to get a feel for what the very top of the conference looks like. They ended up as the best in the conference last year so we use them as the pinnacle of where we want to get to. Then I looked at the 2024 roster and used their previous years pts per 60 rates. Now yes we should probably average several years and I could spend my entire day doing that, but we are just trying to get a feel here. We don't know about the coaching and how it will help, so we are better to error on the side of caution. 

The NYR are about to ice a team that has 1.79p/60 as its scoring rate. If you don't want the average, it adds up to 37.6 but I think the overall scoring rate of 1.79 is more useful. Buffalo with its current 2024 roster is set to run at around 1.54 p/60 or roughly 14% below what the Rangers are at. Now what I found interesting is that the 2023 Sabres come out around 1.52 p/60 when you specifically sort by games played and take the top 21 (I did use Quinn though who falls below that threshold because it just made sense, sorry Robinson). On paper at least that means in the aggregate, Buffalo did replace Skinner and Mittelstadt's scoring rates. 

Rangers 24: 1.79 p/60

Sabres 24: 1.54 p/60

Sabres 23: 1.52 p/60

The point of the thread is what do you do here? We are 14% below the Rangers as the best in the East. There might be enough here to get into the playoffs but it will be close. In goals for, the Red Wings, Penguins, Devils outproduced the Sabres last year. Washington and the Islanders are the only 2 teams at or below Buffalo's goals for that made the playoffs. I did not pull and calculate all of their p/60s based on their current rosters but Buffalo is currently barely better in terms of scoring punch this season. Yes Lindy Ruff will impact that positively for a lot of players and Jack Quinn and 2nd yr Zach Benson will help the overall goals a bit, but the question is do they have enough? The answer right now on July 12th, seems to be not unless we see a jump in scoring from some key guys. We can have basically no injuries. A lot of this has already been said but I wanted to break it down. Buffalo is slightly better than last years team, but it is within the margin of error. We probably replaced Mitts and Skinner in the aggregate but it doesn't really push up much. We are a player short. 

You replace Peyton Krebs and his 1 p/60 with an average top 6 guy at 2.0 and Buffalo goes from 1.54 to 1.59 p/60 and truthfully, over a full season that is probably the extra cushion you need to get in. Otherwise you are relying on Kulich to come up and be useful in the top 6 which is possible but not what you wanna bet on. 

Your comment about everything going right hits home. I think TNT, Cozens and Quinn will improve on their 23/24 numbers but there seems to be no margin for error.

My optimistic side thinks there will be enough scoring but one long term injury can hamper the offense a lot. I would like to think that Kulich could come up and fill in for JJP for a few weeks but this is an unknown. 
As you say, one more top six guy would push someone down and provide excellent depth.

[Taro T]

10 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Your comment about everything going right hits home. I think TNT, Cozens and Quinn will improve on their 23/24 numbers but there seems to be no margin for error.

My optimistic side thinks there will be enough scoring but one long term injury can hamper the offense a lot. I would like to think that Kulich could come up and fill in for JJP for a few weeks but this is an unknown. 
As you say, one more top six guy would push someone down and provide excellent depth.

Still say 260-270 is very realistic.  And that's with expecting no increase in production from Tuch, Peterka, nor Dahlin.

[GASabresIUFAN]

What does it look like if KA acquires Zegras.  Odd man out would likely be Greenway or Aubrey-Kubel.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What does it look like if KA acquires Zegras.  Odd man out would likely be Greenway or Aubrey-Kubel.

Depends on how we think Zegras does. Is he the 2.6 p/60 or the 1.7 p/60 which is him last year. If we think 2.6 more likely due to him recovering from injury than that is 1.1 above Greenway and 1.3 above Kubel. In Kubel's case Buffalo didn't add him for his points but his defense eating abilities. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Depends on how we think Zegras does. Is he the 2.6 p/60 or the 1.7 p/60 which is him last year. If we think 2.6 more likely due to him recovering from injury than that is 1.1 above Greenway and 1.3 above Kubel. In Kubel's case Buffalo didn't add him for his points but his defense eating abilities. 

I believe we'll get the 2.6 player as he'll have better snipers to pass to here than he's had in Anaheim.  My guess is Greenway would be trades to Anaheim in the deal for cap reasons.  

[LGR4GM]

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I believe we'll get the 2.6 player as he'll have better snipers to pass to here than he's had in Anaheim.  My guess is Greenway would be trades to Anaheim in the deal for cap reasons.  

If you replace Krebs with Zegras it puts us from 1.54 to 1.62 and that is probably pretty good. 

Edited July 12 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If you replace Krebs with Zegras it puts us from 1.54 to 1.62 and that is probably pretty good. 

It's why the deal needs to be done, assuming ANA really has him on the trading block.

I don't think Krebs starts the season in the lineup as is unless he outplays Malenstyn or Aube-Kubel during camp.  

Edited July 12 by GASabresIUFAN

[That Aud Smell]

Can you explain p/60, please, @LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

Just now, That Aud Smell said:

Can you explain p/60, please, @LGR4GM

How many points a player scores per 60 mins of ice time.

[PerreaultForever]

I personally don't really care about GF stats of any kind. The only thing that matters to me is team stats, not individual stats, and GF-GA. The bigger that number is the better you are most likely going to be. 

Skinner had points, but how many points did he cost us? That differential made him a lot less valuable than some think he was. A liability even. But he's gone and it doesn't matter. What matters is if they all collectively buy into Ruff's systems and what those team stats end up being. 

[That Aud Smell]

59 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

How many points a player scores per 60 mins of ice time.

that’s what i figured. i’m trying to understand what that … signifies beyond g/60 or gf/60.

[triumph_communes]

Weren’t most our losses in goals due to the atrocious pp?

[Night Train]

Sabres have to have bounce back seasons from our top 6 guys that slumped. 

[LGR4GM]

52 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

that’s what i figured. i’m trying to understand what that … signifies beyond g/60 or gf/60.

It normalizes scoring by ice time. Most production in any sport is based on opportunity. So Jack Quinn is someone that gets talked about with Peterka. Even last year when Quinn was coming back from injury, he outproduced Peterka relative his ice time. Benson was better than several guys relatives to the ice time. 

[That Aud Smell]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

It normalizes scoring by ice time. Most production in any sport is based on opportunity. So Jack Quinn is someone that gets talked about with Peterka. Even last year when Quinn was coming back from injury, he outproduced Peterka relative his ice time. Benson was better than several guys relatives to the ice time. 

I think I get that -- the /60 piece of it.

But what of p(f) instead of g(f)?

[LGR4GM]

Perfect example. Connor Bedard, at 5v5 was 1.9 p/60 because he got a bunch of pp time to up his scoring

Zach Benson is 1.8 p/60 at 5v5 but scored half as many points and no one outside Buffalo thinks much of him. 

7 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I think I get that -- the /60 piece of it.

But what of p(f) instead of g(f)?

It's actual points, not points for. 

Goals doesn't account for players who get pucks to dangerous areas like Benson. Also Goals are rare so they don't always tell your everything. 

[Night Train]

A parallel between Bedard and Benson ?  That seems silly.  I know who Benson is. 

[Thorny]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What does it look like if KA acquires Zegras.  Odd man out would likely be Greenway or Aubrey-Kubel.

Aubrey-Kubel lol 

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Aubrey-Kubel lol 

Got to love spell check.

[JoeSchmoe]

Is pt/60 really the best measuring tool? That expects the number of secondary assists per goal is constant amongst all teams. It might be close, but do we know this? 

I think GF is a better measure. 

 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Is pt/60 really the best measuring tool? That expects the number of secondary assists per goal is constant amongst all teams. It might be close, but do we know this? 

I think GF is a better measure. 

 

The fancy stuff is good for perspective, but ultimately it’s the goals for and against that are the only things that matter.

[That Aud Smell]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The fancy stuff is good for perspective, but ultimately it’s the goals for and against that are the only things that matter.

predictive not determinative.

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Is pt/60 really the best measuring tool? That expects the number of secondary assists per goal is constant amongst all teams. It might be close, but do we know this? 

I think GF is a better measure. 

 

No it doesn't. It tells the number of pts a player scored per 60 of ice time last year. 

Okay, what's the Sabres goals for this season? We have 5 new forwards in the top 12 and 1 forward who only got 20 something games due to injury. 

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

The fancy stuff is good for perspective, but ultimately it’s the goals for and against that are the only things that matter.

Again, tell me what the Sabres 2024 goals for and against will be? 

I simply looked to see if we had enough scoring compared to the best in our conference. Without improvement, we're about 14% below their ability to produce. 

[LGR4GM]

The point of looking at scoring rates was to see if we have enough scoring to make the playoffs. The answer is maybe kinda. It isn't too say we will score x amount of goals. 

Coaching matters for these and injuries do too. You're 13th forward is playing half the games, so if you bump someone into that spot who's better that helps.

Likewise, we aren't accounting for the other side of the equation. We might have enough scoring, but will we prevent enough goals against? That's part 2 of this and more difficult to predict. I suppose we could pull every players xga and average them and see where it goes. 

Either way, this team had just enough to get into the playoffs and technically is better than last years team, but just barely. Again, Lindy Ruff is the great unknown. He manages to impart a system that isn't crap and make the pp even average, Buffalo can make the playoffs. 

The board is set. The pieces are moving. The margins are thin.