Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie

[Crusader1969]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I wish the people who say things like this would learn that games played is the important factor more than age. 24/25 is the usual age because most people hit the NHL at 22 so they enter that 3rd year and there you go. Cozens is in year 5 and has 288 games to his name. McLeod for example has only 227 games. Typically most players hit who they will be around that 250 game mark. So with Cozens, we are getting to a point of him settling into what he is. 

That's interesting.  Do you have any research to back up this claim?  Or just a theory ?
 

[bob_sauve28]

16 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Who would you rather have? ROR and a Cup or Tage Thompson? 

You are not suggesting we would of won the cup if we kept ROR, right? 

 

Sorry if I'm not following 

[LGR4GM]

26 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

You are not suggesting we would of won the cup if we kept ROR, right? 

 

Sorry if I'm not following 

No, I'm pointing out that worrying about what Savoie might be in 4 years is silly when we could get something good now. 

9 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

That's interesting.  Do you have any research to back up this claim?  Or just a theory ?
 

Look up players around the league and see where they breakout, in terms of games played. But no, I haven't run a linear regression for gp to points. 

[K-9]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

No, I'm pointing out that worrying about what Savoie might be in 4 years is silly when we could get something good now. 

Look up players around the league and see where they breakout, in terms of games played. But no, I haven't run a linear regression for gp to points. 

Just to be clear, I’m not worried about Savoie and who “won” the trade in the least. My point was that we shouldn’t compare  veteran players who’ve been around the league for several years with prospects fresh out of juniors still looking to make their mark in the A while waiting for their shot in the show. 

[Crusader1969]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

No, I'm pointing out that worrying about what Savoie might be in 4 years is silly when we could get something good now. 

Look up players around the league and see where they breakout, in terms of games played. But no, I haven't run a linear regression for gp to points. 

I started with Sam Bennett-  400 plus games in NHL before he broke out.  Around the age of 25. 

2) Sam Reinhart.  Came into the league and was immediately a 20 goal scorer.  When he hit 25 the number ratcheted up to 30 and in his 28 year old season he became a 50 goal scorer 

 

Edited October 24 by Crusader1969

[mjd1001]

35 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I started with Sam Bennett-  400 plus games in NHL before he broke out.  Around the age of 25. 

2) Sam Reinhart.  Came into the league and was immediately a 20 goal scorer.  When he hit 25 the number ratcheted up to 30 and in his 28 year old season he became a 50 goal scorer 

 

It really can go either way. To say a player should show you what he is early can be just as correct or wrong as to say one needs hundreds of games.

-Tim Stutzle played about 130 games his first 2 years. His 3rd year he scored almsot 40 goals and 90 points at age 21.

-Lucas Raymond as an 18 and 19 year old was already a 20 goal scorer on average. His 3rd year, coming into it with 156 games played, he scored 31 goals.

-Matthew Boldy put up a 31 goal season, with only 47 games NHL experience coming in.

-Brady Tkachuk had similar numbers to the guys above.

Then on the other hand...

-You have examples like Sam Bennett above, a high draft pick that didn't really break out until he was 25 with 400+ games

-Mitts.  Break out? He's not a star/superstar, but it took him a few years to really become a reliable player.

-Lawson Crouse. He was drafted 11th overall, I remember many in that draft had him projected to go 7th or 8th overall. He didn't become a 20-25 goals scorer until he was 24-25 years old...in his 6th season after he played almost 300 career games.

The thruth seems to be, some guys you know whether they are good or bad after just a year or two and maybe 100 games. Others, it takes hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of games and maybe 5-6 years after they were drafted to figure out what they are. It goes both ways.

[LGR4GM]

37 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I started with Sam Bennett-  400 plus games in NHL before he broke out.  Around the age of 25. 

2) Sam Reinhart.  Came into the league and was immediately a 20 goal scorer.  When he hit 25 the number ratcheted up to 30 and in his 28 year old season he became a 50 goal scorer 

 

Almost like it isn't linear. Or in Reinhart's case, like he left the Sabres and went to a better situation. As though context also matters here. Also Reinhart scored either 25 or 22 goals in the 4 years prior to what you are calling his 33g breakout... so idk if that is a great example. You think it is tied to age, I think it is tied to games played with a healthy dose of opportunity. 

Tage Thompson, broke out between game 145 and 223 and then upped it again after game 223 in his 94 pt season. He was 24. 

Brady Tkachuk, broke out at game 198-277 and was 22. 

Alex Tuch, breaks the trend as he broke out at 26 after being traded although we saw some regression. That was game 305-379

JJ Peterka, broke out technically at only 161 games although maybe this year is his true breakout, he is 23. 

 

[LGR4GM]

Dylan Cozens... big year at 21 after 120 games up to game 200 (the 68pt year) and then a massive regression last year. for games 202-281. I am not saying he is the regression year or the top year, I just think after this year ends, we will know what he is. Right now his sh% indicates he's a sub 10% shooter, so unless he works on that skill a lot, he might hover right there. He brings other things besides his shot though. 

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Almost like it isn't linear. Or in Reinhart's case, like he left the Sabres and went to a better situation. As though context also matters here. Also Reinhart scored either 25 or 22 goals in the 4 years prior to what you are calling his 33g breakout... so idk if that is a great example. You think it is tied to age, I think it is tied to games played with a healthy dose of opportunity. 

Tage Thompson, broke out between game 145 and 223 and then upped it again after game 223 in his 94 pt season. He was 24. 

Brady Tkachuk, broke out at game 198-277 and was 22. 

Alex Tuch, breaks the trend as he broke out at 26 after being traded although we saw some regression. That was game 305-379

JJ Peterka, broke out technically at only 161 games although maybe this year is his true breakout, he is 23. 

 

Yes I was going to point out that both got traded and then broke out 

looking at more of the top scorers...it's rare that any of them take 3 season or till 25 years old to break out.   They usually start scoring in their first or second year   
 

guess it proves, everyone is different and matures into their best at different rates 

I'm still in belief that Cozens will become a really good player  20-25 goals per year and a capable top 6 forward 

 

[LGR4GM]

30 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Yes I was going to point out that both got traded and then broke out 

looking at more of the top scorers...it's rare that any of them take 3 season or till 25 years old to break out.   They usually start scoring in their first or second year   
 

guess it proves, everyone is different and matures into their best at different rates 

I'm still in belief that Cozens will become a really good player  20-25 goals per year and a capable top 6 forward 

 

I think Cozens being a 60/65pt top 6 forward is very much within his reach and reasonable for what we have seen from him. 

[Pimlach]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Dylan Cozens... big year at 21 after 120 games up to game 200 (the 68pt year) and then a massive regression last year. for games 202-281. I am not saying he is the regression year or the top year, I just think after this year ends, we will know what he is. Right now his sh% indicates he's a sub 10% shooter, so unless he works on that skill a lot, he might hover right there. He brings other things besides his shot though. 

All true. 

I can see him as a late bloomer with a long career. 

[LGR4GM]

17 hours ago, Pimlach said:

All true. 

I can see him as a late bloomer with a long career. 

I don't think a guy who put up 68pts at 22yrs old should be labeled a late bloomer honestly. Sam Bennett is a late bloomer. We might be able to apply that to McLeod depending on how this year goes. 

[Pimlach]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think a guy who put up 68pts at 22yrs old should be labeled a late bloomer honestly. Sam Bennett is a late bloomer. We might be able to apply that to McLeod depending on how this year goes. 

Rewording - I see him peaking and being a better rounded player later in his career.