Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie

[DarthEbriate]

Based on TOI, Peterka had already replaced Skinner in March-April last season. If JJP stays on the top line, Zucker is replacing a 2nd-line JJP/Benson or 3rd-line Benson/Skinner.

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I'll run it all in about 30 mins. I think we're short from last year. 

It's a good predictive exercise - that thing you're doing. It's also limited in its utility.

And if we're looking at replacing goals from last season, can we also talk about the fact that there are several members of the top-6 (the centres and Tuch) who, I think, must improve their numbers from last season?

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

When I consider Skinner’s diminished role at the end of last season (out of the top 6) and the complete overhaul of the team’s bottom/middle 6, I don’t view the team as having replaced Skinner on a one for one basis.

There’s risk in planning to replace his goals on a committee basis. @LGR4GM was running some numbers upthread (or elsewhere).

This is also why I’m still hoping that Adams still has a move for a top-6 forward up his sleeve. If he does, I wonder more and more about Greenway’s role on the team.

With Quinn's return Skinner became the 5th wing with Greenway 6. (Tuch, JJP, Quinn, Benson.) With those 5 returning, Zucker is currently the 5th wing.  At the end of the season the Sabres fielded a line of Skinner Krebs Greenway (xGF 42%, but GF% of 67%) for almost 55 minutes.

Edited July 12 by GASabresIUFAN

[freester]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With Quinn's return Skinner became the 5th wing with Greenway 6. (Tuch, JJP, Quinn, Benson.) With those 5 returning, Zucker is currently the 5th wing.  

Greenway belongs on the 4th line

Edited July 12 by freester

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, freester said:

Greenway belongs on the 3rd line

Correct.  As the 6th wing he should skate on the 3rd line 

JJP Tuch

Benson Quinn

Zucker Greenway

[CTJoe]

7 minutes ago, freester said:

Greenway belongs on the 4th line

Greenway belongs on the trade block.  There's no room for Krebs and possibly no role for Greenway any longer, especially if the trade for another forward.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

There’s risk in planning to replace his goals on a committee basis.

Between the trade deadline and the off-season moves, the Sabres dumped 72g & 89a from last year's squad

If you just ask the newcomers to give the Sabres what they gave their old teams you get

Zucker 14-18

McLeod 12-18

Lafferty 13-11

Malenstyn 6-15

Aube-Kubel 6-10

Totals 51-72

We seem a little short in the aggregate.  If you add in a full season of Quinn (add 18g-20a) you about break even with what was lost.  

This team is going to have to score at least 20-25 more goals than last year's squad while maintaining a similar goals against to make a serious run at the playoffs.  That's going to have to come from growth in Benson, and better years from our top 5.  The top 5 most also stay healthy because there is no real scoring depth on the team behind them.

 

Edited July 12 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With Quinn's return Skinner became the 5th wing with Greenway 6. (Tuch, JJP, Quinn, Benson.) With those 5 returning, Zucker is currently the 5th wing.  At the end of the season the Sabres fielded a line of Skinner Krebs Greenway (xGF 42%, but GF% of 67%) for almost 55 minutes.

Quinn played 27 games last year. In terms of roles, he's your most likely Skinner replacement and will have to score 24 to hold status quo. Last year he paced for 27

McLeod replaces Mittelstadt as the 3C but is unlikely to get his PP time. Mitts scored 14. Last year, McLeod scored 12.

Olofsson was the spare offensive winger and mostly filled Quinn's role. Combined they scored 16. Their slots will be replaced by Zucker and (most likely as things stand) Kulich/Rosen. Zucker scored 14 last year.

Replacing the 60 goals prime Skinner/Olofsson might score is probably not going to happen. Replacing last year's production shouldn't be that hard.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Replacing the 60 goals prime Skinner/Olofsson might score is probably not going to happen. Replacing last year's production shouldn't be that hard.

 

30 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Between the trade deadline and the off-season moves, the Sabres dumped 72g & 89a from last year's squad

If you just ask the newcomers to give the Sabres what they gave their old teams you get

Zucker 14-18

McLeod 12-18

Lafferty 13-11

Malenstyn 6-15

Aube-Kubel 6-10

Totals 51-72

We seem a little short in the aggregate.  If you add in a full season of Quinn (add 18g-20a) you about break even with what was lost.  

This team is going to have to score at least 20-25 more goals than last year's squad while maintaining a similar goals against to make a serious run at the playoffs.  That's going to have to come from growth in Benson, and better years from our top 5.  The top 5 most also stay healthy because there is no real scoring depth on the team behind them.

As I outlined above we are at about breakeven with what we lost.  The question is and has been, how do we get the extra 20-25 goals at a minimum to become a playoff team.  I'd like to see us replace a depth forward with a scoring forward.  For example, trade Greenway and acquire Zegras.  That would solidify the top 6, give Cozens and Quinn a bona fide lethal playmaker to elevate their games and given Benson time to develop on the 3rd line with McLeod and Zucker.

Right now we are asking Benson to be the catalyst that creates for Cozens and Quinn.  That's asking to much of a 19 year old IMHO.

 

[Archie Lee]

45 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Between the trade deadline and the off-season moves, the Sabres dumped 72g & 89a from last year's squad

If you just ask the newcomers to give the Sabres what they gave their old teams you get

Zucker 14-18

McLeod 12-18

Lafferty 13-11

Malenstyn 6-15

Aube-Kubel 6-10

Totals 51-72

We seem a little short in the aggregate.  If you add in a full season of Quinn (add 18g-20a) you about break even with what was lost.  

This team is going to have to score at least 20-25 more goals than last year's squad while maintaining a similar goals against to make a serious run at the playoffs.  That's going to have to come from growth in Benson, and better years from our top 5.  The top 5 most also stay healthy because there is no real scoring depth on the team behind them.

 

Doesn't some of that need to come from Thompson, Tuch and Cozens.  They combined for 114 in 22-23 and then dropped to 69 last year.  If they don't at least split the difference and combine for 90 this year, I don't see a path to the playoffs.

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

As I outlined above we are at about breakeven with what we lost.  The question is and has been, how do we get the extra 20-25 goals at a minimum to become a playoff team.  I'd like to see us replace a depth forward with a scoring forward.  For example, trade Greenway and acquire Zegras.  That would solidify the top 6, give Cozens and Quinn a bona fide lethal playmaker to elevate their games and given Benson time to develop on the 3rd line with McLeod and Zucker.

Right now we are asking Benson to be the catalyst that creates for Cozens and Quinn.  That's asking to much of a 19 year old IMHO.

 

Quinn and Cozens don't need a catalyst. I expect that line to be good regardless of its 3rd component.

Over the course of a full season adding 20 to 25 goals is just a matter of each player scoring one more goal. Or Cozens, Thompson and Tuch splitting the difference between last year's totals and what they scored the year before.

It's not that hard.

As for your overall plan, agree wholeheartedly with adding a legitimate top 6 winger.

And I'm not worried about the bumpdown, or clearing space.

We're going to need 14 NHL forwards over the course of the season. Right now we have 13.

Starting the season with Aube-Kubel and Krebs in the press box and having them available to rotate in as injury and performance demand is a good thing.

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With Quinn's return Skinner became the 5th wing with Greenway 6. (Tuch, JJP, Quinn, Benson.) With those 5 returning, Zucker is currently the 5th wing.  At the end of the season the Sabres fielded a line of Skinner Krebs Greenway (xGF 42%, but GF% of 67%) for almost 55 minutes.

Like I said, I don't think the roster will line up as neatly as that.

1 hour ago, freester said:

Greenway belongs on the 4th line

I'm starting to wonder if there'll be a role for him. Adams went out and got him because he was a Granato guy.

44 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Replacing last year's production shouldn't be that hard.

And certainly won't be enough.

21 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Over the course of a full season adding 20 to 25 goals is just a matter of each player scoring one more goal. Or Cozens, Thompson and Tuch splitting the difference between last year's totals and what they scored the year before.

This is the way. Or at least it better be.

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

agree wholeheartedly with adding a legitimate top 6 winger.

[Doohicksie]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We seem a little short in the aggregate.  If you add in a full season of Quinn (add 18g-20a) you about break even with what was lost.  

I think expecting growth from Benson isn't unreasonable either.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Quinn and Cozens don't need a catalyst. I expect that line to be good regardless of its 3rd component.

Over the course of a full season adding 20 to 25 goals is just a matter of each player scoring one more goal. Or Cozens, Thompson and Tuch splitting the difference between last year's totals and what they scored the year before.

It's not that hard.

As for your overall plan, agree wholeheartedly with adding a legitimate top 6 winger.

And I'm not worried about the bumpdown, or clearing space.

We're going to need 14 NHL forwards over the course of the season. Right now we have 13.

Starting the season with Aube-Kubel and Krebs in the press box and having them available to rotate in as injury and performance demand is a good thing.

Jack Quinn is the catalyst. 

[Thorner]

13 hours ago, dudacek said:

Quinn played 27 games last year. In terms of roles, he's your most likely Skinner replacement and will have to score 24 to hold status quo. Last year he paced for 27

McLeod replaces Mittelstadt as the 3C but is unlikely to get his PP time. Mitts scored 14. Last year, McLeod scored 12.

Olofsson was the spare offensive winger and mostly filled Quinn's role. Combined they scored 16. Their slots will be replaced by Zucker and (most likely as things stand) Kulich/Rosen. Zucker scored 14 last year.

Replacing the 60 goals prime Skinner/Olofsson might score is probably not going to happen. Replacing last year's production shouldn't be that hard.

 

 

13 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 

As I outlined above we are at about breakeven with what we lost.  The question is and has been, how do we get the extra 20-25 goals at a minimum to become a playoff team.  I'd like to see us replace a depth forward with a scoring forward.  For example, trade Greenway and acquire Zegras.  That would solidify the top 6, give Cozens and Quinn a bona fide lethal playmaker to elevate their games and given Benson time to develop on the 3rd line with McLeod and Zucker.

Right now we are asking Benson to be the catalyst that creates for Cozens and Quinn.  That's asking to much of a 19 year old IMHO.

 

Too much smoke and mirrors: you can’t just act like you account for Mittelstadt’s lost production by accounting for his goal total. It’s fundamentally flawed and I just keep seeing it 

Edited July 13 by Thorny

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

 

Too much smoke and mirrors: you can just act like you account for Mittelstadt’s lost production by accounting for his goal total. It’s fundamentally flawed and I just keep seeing it 

Well, I guess the nut of this is true - Casey’s playmaking certainly helped drive offence - but I wouldn’t call it smoke and mirrors.

The discussion is about replacing goals so we are talking about goals. 🤷

Personally, I don’t think Quinn, Olofsson or Skinner’s goal totals last year were artificially inflated by Casey. Nor do I think not having him is going to cause a reduction in the totals we should expect this year from Quinn, Zucker or McLeod.

Of course there are many other elements at play in the overall offensive potential of the team and Casey’s 33 assists are among them.

Edited July 13 by dudacek

[dudacek]

Just thinking about this a little more.

I don’t expect many goals from Malenstyn. But maybe his hitting causes a few pucks to be coughed up that get turned into goals that we weren’t getting from the guys who are gone.

Maybe Byram joins the rush in way that Johnson and Johnson didn’t and more goals get created as a result.

Maybe McLeod gets the puck out of our zone and up the ice quicker than Okposo ever did leading to more offensive zone time and more goals from those chances.

There’s a lot more to consider than “this guy usually gets this many”.

But I think there’s still merit to discussing whether or not we have enough finishers.

[PickaPecaPickles]

23 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Between the trade deadline and the off-season moves, the Sabres dumped 72g & 89a from last year's squad

If you just ask the newcomers to give the Sabres what they gave their old teams you get

Zucker 14-18

McLeod 12-18

Lafferty 13-11

Malenstyn 6-15

Aube-Kubel 6-10

Totals 51-72

We seem a little short in the aggregate.  If you add in a full season of Quinn (add 18g-20a) you about break even with what was lost.  

This team is going to have to score at least 20-25 more goals than last year's squad while maintaining a similar goals against to make a serious run at the playoffs.  That's going to have to come from growth in Benson, and better years from our top 5.  The top 5 most also stay healthy because there is no real scoring depth on the team behind them.

 

As I've posted a couple times, over the past two years, every team with > +10 goal differential made the playoffs. Last year the Sabres were +2, with 246 GF and 244 GA. With Ruff at the helm, I would argue they will most likely reduce their GA enough to get to +10, as long as they can generate the same GF.   So, I don't believe they need 20-25 more goals, they simply need to maintain their 3/game average.  Last, their biggest issue on O last year was the Power Play, and if they can get back to middle of the pack there, then there's no reason why they can't make the playoffs.

[Pimlach]

3 hours ago, PickaPecaPickles said:

As I've posted a couple times, over the past two years, every team with > +10 goal differential made the playoffs. Last year the Sabres were +2, with 246 GF and 244 GA. With Ruff at the helm, I would argue they will most likely reduce their GA enough to get to +10, as long as they can generate the same GF.   So, I don't believe they need 20-25 more goals, they simply need to maintain their 3/game average.  Last, their biggest issue on O last year was the Power Play, and if they can get back to middle of the pack there, then there's no reason why they can't make the playoffs.

All true , so the goaltending has to be as good as it was from January of the past season. 

[PickaPecaPickles]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

All true , so the goaltending has to be as good as it was from January of the past season. 

Yes, that's certainly baked into my assumptions, and I think better team D means improved net-minding as well.

[bob_sauve28]

I'm McLovin this trade! Great job KA! 

[inkman]

The hockey world scoffed at the Sabres for giving up bonafide superstar in the making Mathew Savoie for a bottom six defensive forward with limited upside.  It seems like a pretty solid trade at this point.  

[WhenWillItEnd66]

It is a small sample size, but this is exactly what the Sabres were missing. That is what made the trade good for the Sabres. He is defensively sound, fast, a bit of grit and some skill. We have missed having someone like that in the bottom 6 for awhile, and now we have 3 or 4 of them. Once the injured speedster comes back it will be better. 

[LGR4GM]

On 7/5/2024 at 4:34 PM, Brawndo said:

Peterka-Tage-Tuch

 Benson-Cozen-Quinn

Zucker-McLeod-Greenway

NAK-Lafferty/Krebs-Malenstyn

 

Looks better then it did this morning 

Amazing how after years of us trying to put lines together that we nailed this basically from the start. Almost like the Sabres built and actual forward group. Still worried about the depth but at least McLeod is rolling. 

Savoie btw has 1g, 2a in 3AHL games. Just in case anyone was curious. 

[shrader]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

The hockey world scoffed at the Sabres for giving up bonafide superstar in the making Mathew Savoie for a bottom six defensive forward with limited upside.  It seems like a pretty solid trade at this point.  

Did anyone, even in here, ever actually use that label?