Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie

[LGR4GM]

22 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Yes.

Is this the point of the show that we list truisms?  If so, toast is good w/ bacon & homefries.  😉

Pizza is good with beer. 

[Doohicksie]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Pizza is good with beer. 

Even Detroit pizza?

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Doohickie said:

Even Detroit pizza?

If you have enough beer

[Brawndo]

11 hours ago, GrassValleyGreg said:

Confirms some whispers I heard of Jack Drury as the target. That’s a shame, like him as a player a bit more than McCleod. Will likely continue to grow as a dominant FO guy. 
The two will now be linked in Sabres fans’ eyes moving forward. Praying we didn’t settle for the bride’s maid.

I think the deal would have been 1:1 with the same prospect going to Carolina. The fact that Tulsky, who is considered one of the smartest minds in hockey, changed his mind on the deal, adds to the belief they moved the right prospect. 
 

Drury does have slightly better defensive metrics, but the difference is almost negligible, especially when you take into account he plays in Carolina’s System and players typically do not replicate those results for other teams. 
 

McLeod does have better offensive metrics and I believe he could be moved into the 2C position in the event Cozens does not have the expected bounce back 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

You can't pause toast. It loses its essenceness and possibly its essensa.

When you pause your toast in the toaster, this is what you get:

https://www.saveur.com/article/techniques/burn-your-toast-on-purpose/

 

 

[ska-T Chitown]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

There's more to life than fancy stats for sure. I am just pointing out that for the last 13 years, most of the analytics community has dumped on the Sabres and the moves they made. This summer, not so much. Idk if McLeod can have the same impact that Cirelli has had, I think that is part of the risk. But for the first time in forever, I don't look at microstats and see red with some more red on top of red when we add these types of dudes. Again, analytics are not the end all be all, but they are a good starting point when the eye test has failed this team for over a decade. 

I remember seeing some hand-wringing (in general, not by LGR that I recall) about "we already pay cozens 2C money!!" Yet, looking at that social media post, it appears TB decided they could pay their 3C $6.25M. Granted, TB has some rolling cap issues ... but they also have two recent cups. shrug.

[BullBuchanan]

I'm not opposed to KA making moves, but I am opposed to the idea though that this team is somehow going to be better with worse players. Who's the guy that takes us to the next level? Zucker? The guy with 3 names? Lafferty? It seems like he's gotten the worse end of the trade on every deal. In addition, all we've done is improve the bottom of our roster. Was the Sabres fatal flaw last year really our 4th line? Was not having enough Jordan Greenway's really why we aren't in the playoffs? I really don't think so. Our top 6 is objectively less skilled than it was a month ago, and we needed to inject it with more talent then.

When I look at the rosters of teams that have been in the Stanley Cup for the last decade+, none of them look like ours. Who are our stars now? Dahlin and... ? Thompson? maybe? Is this the 1999 plan where you're gonna build the team around a bunch of overachievers and the greatest goalie of all time? If so, great, just gotta find that goalie I guess.

I won't be floored if Lindy can sneak us into the playoffs this year, but We're absolutely at least super star away from being able to be a threat to anybody. We've dumped 30-40 goals in Skinner, who we won't be able to replace. We dump Girgensons for what seems like a downgrade in Malenstyn. and then added a bunch of career jobbers on 1 year deals. What exactly is the vision for this team? I don't see it.

Edited July 8 by BullBuchanan

[Taro T]

25 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not opposed to KA making moves, but I am opposed to the idea though that this team is somehow going to be better with worse players. Who's the guy that takes us to the next level? Zucker? The guy with 3 names? Lafferty? It seems like he's gotten the worse end of the trade on every deal. In addition, all we've done is improve the bottom of our roster. Was the Sabres fatal flaw last year really our 4th line? Was not having enough Jordan Greenway's really why we aren't in the playoffs? I really don't think so. Our top 6 is objectively less skilled tihan it was a month ago, and we needed to inject it with more talent then.

When I look at the rosters of teams that have been in the Stanley Cup for the last decade+, none of them look like ours. Who are our stars now? Dahlin and... ? Thompson? maybe? Is this the 1999 plan where you're gonna build the team around a bunch of overachievers and the greatest goalie of all time? If so, great, just gotta find that goalie I guess.

I won't be floored if Lindy can sneak us into the playoffs this year, but We're absolutely at least super star away from being able to be a threat to anybody. We've dumped 30-40 goals in Skinner, who we won't be able to replace. We dump Girgensons for what seems like a downgrade in Malenstyn. and then added a bunch of career jobbers on 1 year deals. What exactly is the vision for this team? I don't see it.

THIS version of this team is NOT a SC contender.  It IS a playoff contender.  (Please note, saying it is a playoff contender doesn't mean it's a lock to be in.)

BUT you have to get to be a playoff contender before you can be a SC contender.

Adams timeline for SC contention is IMHO 2 seasons away.  UPL should be in his prime & Levi will finally be there too.  Dahlin will be squarely in his prime years & Power & Byram will be mid-20's (aka entering theirs) w/ at least 1 of Samuelsson or Johnson able to round out the top 4 & Novikov would likely be available to fill into the top 6 should whatever 2 other guys are rounding out the unit by then get injured/ need support/relief.

Yes, Thompson & Tuch are getting long in the tooth by then, bit Peterka, Cozens, & Quinn are all at their primes & there is at least middle 6 talent ready to step up in Kulich, Oslund, & Helenius.  And we haven't even mentioned Benson nor McLeod nor should he still be in the organization Wahlberg.  Find a couple other useful bottom 6ers & you're cooking w/ gas.

And all Adams has taken from that squad is a 2nd round pick that wouldn't be ready to help anyway and Savoie who still would need to beat out all those other guys plus Rosen.  The future looks bright.  (But you can never count on the future.)  But the present looks alright too & there could still be another move or 2 to happen. 

[krakensabr56390]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

THIS version of this team is NOT a SC contender.  It IS a playoff contender.  (Please note, saying it is a playoff contender doesn't mean it's a lock to be in.)

BUT you have to get to be a playoff contender before you can be a SC contender.

Adams timeline for SC contention is IMHO 2 seasons away.  UPL should be in his prime & Levi will finally be there too.  Dahlin will be squarely in his prime years & Power & Byram will be mid-20's (aka entering theirs) w/ at least 1 of Samuelsson or Johnson able to round out the top 4 & Novikov would likely be available to fill into the top 6 should whatever 2 other guys are rounding out the unit by then get injured/ need support/relief.

Yes, Thompson & Tuch are getting long in the tooth by then, bit Peterka, Cozens, & Quinn are all at their primes & there is at least middle 6 talent ready to step up in Kulich, Oslund, & Helenius.  And we haven't even mentioned Benson nor McLeod nor should he still be in the organization Wahlberg.  Find a couple other useful bottom 6ers & you're cooking w/ gas.

And all Adams has taken from that squad is a 2nd round pick that wouldn't be ready to help anyway and Savoie who still would need to beat out all those other guys plus Rosen.  The future looks bright.  (But you can never count on the future.)  But the present looks alright too & there could still be another move or 2 to happen. 

Good points and keep in mind that 2nd is sort of free anyways since we prob draft Helenius at 11 if we don’t move down anyways… it didn’t exist in the stockpile before last week and had zero sunk player cost 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not opposed to KA making moves, but I am opposed to the idea though that this team is somehow going to be better with worse players. Who's the guy that takes us to the next level? Zucker? The guy with 3 names? Lafferty? It seems like he's gotten the worse end of the trade on every deal. In addition, all we've done is improve the bottom of our roster. Was the Sabres fatal flaw last year really our 4th line? Was not having enough Jordan Greenway's really why we aren't in the playoffs? I really don't think so. Our top 6 is objectively less skilled than it was a month ago, and we needed to inject it with more talent then.

When I look at the rosters of teams that have been in the Stanley Cup for the last decade+, none of them look like ours. Who are our stars now? Dahlin and... ? Thompson? maybe? Is this the 1999 plan where you're gonna build the team around a bunch of overachievers and the greatest goalie of all time? If so, great, just gotta find that goalie I guess.

I won't be floored if Lindy can sneak us into the playoffs this year, but We're absolutely at least super star away from being able to be a threat to anybody. We've dumped 30-40 goals in Skinner, who we won't be able to replace. We dump Girgensons for what seems like a downgrade in Malenstyn. and then added a bunch of career jobbers on 1 year deals. What exactly is the vision for this team? I don't see it.

A very fair post. 

Admittedly, the moves so far this offseason do have an overall flavour closer to, “at least we can do this.” rather than “this is our avenue to success.” Moves that keep the playoffs in reason, rather than moves that make us think playoffs are likely and get us thinking about perhaps more. 

[Big Guava]

23 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Spreadsheet fandom had Sabre fans crying the blues on Twitter.

Because most fans have the IQ of a rock or their picket fence.

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm not opposed to KA making moves, but I am opposed to the idea though that this team is somehow going to be better with worse players. Who's the guy that takes us to the next level? Zucker? The guy with 3 names? Lafferty? It seems like he's gotten the worse end of the trade on every deal. In addition, all we've done is improve the bottom of our roster. Was the Sabres fatal flaw last year really our 4th line? Was not having enough Jordan Greenway's really why we aren't in the playoffs? I really don't think so. Our top 6 is objectively less skilled than it was a month ago, and we needed to inject it with more talent then.

When I look at the rosters of teams that have been in the Stanley Cup for the last decade+, none of them look like ours. Who are our stars now? Dahlin and... ? Thompson? maybe? Is this the 1999 plan where you're gonna build the team around a bunch of overachievers and the greatest goalie of all time? If so, great, just gotta find that goalie I guess.

I won't be floored if Lindy can sneak us into the playoffs this year, but We're absolutely at least super star away from being able to be a threat to anybody. We've dumped 30-40 goals in Skinner, who we won't be able to replace. We dump Girgensons for what seems like a downgrade in Malenstyn. and then added a bunch of career jobbers on 1 year deals. What exactly is the vision for this team? I don't see it.

Quinn will be if he stays healthy and Peterka could be a 40 goal scorer.

I would definitely expect a bounce back year from Cozens.

[Thorner]

Is there a competition around here where the person lowest on Jack Quinn gets exiled from the board or something? I’m as high on him as anyone (see: or, at least I thought I was (I’ve predicted he’ll become our best F)) but the level of projection certainty seems to be bordering on absurd. 

I’ll probably get torched for this, and it’s not like the more bullish predictions cant or won’t happen. But I’m seeing a fair bit of commentary along the lines of, “oh Quinn just needs to stay healthy and he’s got 30-40 goals easy”

he had 9 last year, injuries or not. He’s got 24 since being drafted 4 years ago. We kinda have to wait and see what happens when he GETS a ton more games and minutes…basically I just hope it’s not also the GM’s plan to bank on an 80 point season from him or something

Edited July 8 by Thorny

[thewookie1]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Is there a competition around here where the person lowest on Jack Quinn gets exiled from the board or something? I’m as high on him as anyone (see: or, at least I thought I was (I’ve predicted he’ll become our best F)) but the level of projection certainty seems to be bordering on absurd. 

I’ll probably get torched for this, and it’s not like the more bullish predictions cant or won’t happen. But I’m seeing a fair bit of “oh Quinn just needs to stay healthy and he’s got 40 goals easy”

he had 9 last year, injuries or not. He’s got 24 since being drafted 4 years ago. We kinda have to wait and see what happens when he GETS a ton more games and minutes…basically I just hope it’s not also the GM’s plan to bank on an 80 point season from him or something

Everything shows that Quinn is very capable of 30+ goals with a full heathy season. I’m not going to deposit any assumption he’ll get 80 pts though. Give me 60 pts from both him and Peterka and we are likely looking very good. 

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, thewookie1 said:

Everything shows that Quinn is very capable of 30+ goals with a full heathy season. I’m not going to deposit any assumption he’ll get 80 pts though. Give me 60 pts from both him and Peterka and we are likely looking very good. 

Ya. 

Probably.

[That Aud Smell]

Jack Quinn's my favourite player on my favourite team. 

I'm not exactly sure why. But, hey, I know what I like and I know it when I see it. I just love the young man's game.

All that said, 30 goals is a lot - even by modern NHL standards. (Scoring is up, right?)

I do think Quinn has some 30 goal seasons in him, provided he can stay healthy. But I'm not sure when those seasons will occur. And I'm not sure they'll be the norm.

In the meantime, let's just pray for his health and the evolution of his game.

[stinky finger]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Jack Quinn's my favourite player on my favourite team. 

I'm not exactly sure why. But, hey, I know what I like and I know it when I see it. I just love the young man's game.

All that said, 30 goals is a lot - even by modern NHL standards. (Scoring is up, right?)

I do think Quinn has some 30 goal seasons in him, provided he can stay healthy. But I'm not sure when those seasons will occur. And I'm not sure they'll be the norm.

In the meantime, let's just pray for his health and the evolution of his game.

Lord knows I'm not the expert, but if Quinn gives us 82 games, I don't think 30 Gs are unreasonable. I'd expect it actually.

Maybe I'm shooting too high?

 

[...]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Jack Quinn's my favourite player on my favourite team. 

I'm not exactly sure why. But, hey, I know what I like and I know it when I see it. I just love the young man's game.

All that said, 30 goals is a lot - even by modern NHL standards. (Scoring is up, right?)

I do think Quinn has some 30 goal seasons in him, provided he can stay healthy. But I'm not sure when those seasons will occur. And I'm not sure they'll be the norm.

In the meantime, let's just pray for his health and the evolution of his game.

This is interesting. I'm not one of "those people" making predictions about Quinn, however my impression has been that Quinn is expected to be a goal scorer. Is that not the case? Was it ever the case?

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, ... said:

This is interesting. I'm not one of "those people" making predictions about Quinn, however my impression has been that Quinn is expected to be a goal scorer. Is that not the case? Was it ever the case?

It’s the case.

I’m pretty sure he was the highest goal scorer in his draft class (52 goals in 62 games) and he got 26 goals in 45 games as a rookie in Rochester.

Add in a goal every 3 games pace last season without time on the PP and the expectation is definitely there.

 

[shrader]

13 minutes ago, ... said:

This is interesting. I'm not one of "those people" making predictions about Quinn, however my impression has been that Quinn is expected to be a goal scorer. Is that not the case? Was it ever the case?

He was talked up as potentially the best goal scorer of his draft class. He put up 52 in his draft season. 
 

@Thorny, he was ahead of Peterka prior to the injury and JJ just put up 28 last year. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that he should surpass him again if/when healthy. Those 9 goals, by the way, were in only 27 games. That projects out to 27 over a full season. 30 should be easily within grasp, again, if/when healthy. 

[Thorner]

41 minutes ago, stinky finger said:

Lord knows I'm not the expert, but if Quinn gives us 82 games, I don't think 30 Gs are unreasonable. I'd expect it actually.

Maybe I'm shooting too high?

 

Not really, not if you aren’t a GM responsible for the result, and not just hindsight plausibility

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, shrader said:

He was talked up as potentially the best goal scorer of his draft class. He put up 52 in his draft season. 
 

@Thorny, he was ahead of Peterka prior to the injury and JJ just put up 28 last year. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that he should surpass him again if/when healthy. Those 9 goals, by the way, were in only 27 games. That projects out to 27 over a full season. 30 should be easily within grasp, again, if/when healthy. 

*Expecting* linear development, from *any* young player, and especially from a player who has missed a lot of time while developing, is risky. This is sort of conventional wisdom that is playing the role of dissenting opinion in this thread.
 

after all we’ve been through with prospects  

im ok with that, it’s necessary, when the default opinion in many other cases appears to be “expect 30”.

Edited July 9 by Thorny

[Thorner]

“Ahead of Peterka prior to the injury” 

well, yes, exactly. Peterka kept playing. I just think people should be granting the kid a bit of runway. if we want to all disregard that, it’s all good. He met very well put up the 30

- - - 

Also, re: Quinn being a “goal scorer”. Personally I see him as more of a Mark Stone type who does everything. Probably with a pretty balanced stat line goals vs assists wise. So yes he’ll score a lot of goals but not necessarily be the connotation “goal scorer” sometimes implies 

Edited July 9 by Thorny

[shrader]

34 minutes ago, Thorny said:

*Expecting* linear development, from *any* young player, and especially from a player who has missed a lot of time while developing, is risky. This is sort of conventional wisdom that is playing the role of dissenting opinion in this thread.
 

after all we’ve been through with prospects  

im ok with that, it’s necessary, when the default opinion in many other cases appears to be “expect 30”.

Expecting linear development? I’m not even sure what that means. That’s not a thing when you really only have one time point. But anyway, it’s mostly just about expecting any growth. There’s more potential in him than there is with probably any other kid on this team. People are going to dream and dream big. 

[That Aud Smell]

59 minutes ago, ... said:

This is interesting. I'm not one of "those people" making predictions about Quinn, however my impression has been that Quinn is expected to be a goal scorer. Is that not the case? Was it ever the case?

Agreed - interesting. I envision him as a guy who reliably scores 20, typically gets ~25, and occasionally gets 30+ all while playing a hard, responsible 200’ game.

[stinky finger]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Not really, not if you aren’t a GM responsible for the result, and not just hindsight plausibility

Put me in for 33 on the Mighty Quinn.