Trade: C Ryan McLeod - Oilers for Matt Savoie

[Crusader1969]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I wish the people who say things like this would learn that games played is the important factor more than age. 24/25 is the usual age because most people hit the NHL at 22 so they enter that 3rd year and there you go. Cozens is in year 5 and has 288 games to his name. McLeod for example has only 227 games. Typically most players hit who they will be around that 250 game mark. So with Cozens, we are getting to a point of him settling into what he is. 

That's interesting.  Do you have any research to back up this claim?  Or just a theory ?
 

[bob_sauve28]

16 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Who would you rather have? ROR and a Cup or Tage Thompson? 

You are not suggesting we would of won the cup if we kept ROR, right? 

 

Sorry if I'm not following 

[LGR4GM]

26 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

You are not suggesting we would of won the cup if we kept ROR, right? 

 

Sorry if I'm not following 

No, I'm pointing out that worrying about what Savoie might be in 4 years is silly when we could get something good now. 

9 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

That's interesting.  Do you have any research to back up this claim?  Or just a theory ?
 

Look up players around the league and see where they breakout, in terms of games played. But no, I haven't run a linear regression for gp to points. 

[K-9]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

No, I'm pointing out that worrying about what Savoie might be in 4 years is silly when we could get something good now. 

Look up players around the league and see where they breakout, in terms of games played. But no, I haven't run a linear regression for gp to points. 

Just to be clear, I’m not worried about Savoie and who “won” the trade in the least. My point was that we shouldn’t compare  veteran players who’ve been around the league for several years with prospects fresh out of juniors still looking to make their mark in the A while waiting for their shot in the show. 

[Crusader1969]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

No, I'm pointing out that worrying about what Savoie might be in 4 years is silly when we could get something good now. 

Look up players around the league and see where they breakout, in terms of games played. But no, I haven't run a linear regression for gp to points. 

I started with Sam Bennett-  400 plus games in NHL before he broke out.  Around the age of 25. 

2) Sam Reinhart.  Came into the league and was immediately a 20 goal scorer.  When he hit 25 the number ratcheted up to 30 and in his 28 year old season he became a 50 goal scorer 

 

Edited October 24, 2024 by Crusader1969

[mjd1001]

35 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I started with Sam Bennett-  400 plus games in NHL before he broke out.  Around the age of 25. 

2) Sam Reinhart.  Came into the league and was immediately a 20 goal scorer.  When he hit 25 the number ratcheted up to 30 and in his 28 year old season he became a 50 goal scorer 

 

It really can go either way. To say a player should show you what he is early can be just as correct or wrong as to say one needs hundreds of games.

-Tim Stutzle played about 130 games his first 2 years. His 3rd year he scored almsot 40 goals and 90 points at age 21.

-Lucas Raymond as an 18 and 19 year old was already a 20 goal scorer on average. His 3rd year, coming into it with 156 games played, he scored 31 goals.

-Matthew Boldy put up a 31 goal season, with only 47 games NHL experience coming in.

-Brady Tkachuk had similar numbers to the guys above.

Then on the other hand...

-You have examples like Sam Bennett above, a high draft pick that didn't really break out until he was 25 with 400+ games

-Mitts.  Break out? He's not a star/superstar, but it took him a few years to really become a reliable player.

-Lawson Crouse. He was drafted 11th overall, I remember many in that draft had him projected to go 7th or 8th overall. He didn't become a 20-25 goals scorer until he was 24-25 years old...in his 6th season after he played almost 300 career games.

The thruth seems to be, some guys you know whether they are good or bad after just a year or two and maybe 100 games. Others, it takes hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of games and maybe 5-6 years after they were drafted to figure out what they are. It goes both ways.

[LGR4GM]

37 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I started with Sam Bennett-  400 plus games in NHL before he broke out.  Around the age of 25. 

2) Sam Reinhart.  Came into the league and was immediately a 20 goal scorer.  When he hit 25 the number ratcheted up to 30 and in his 28 year old season he became a 50 goal scorer 

 

Almost like it isn't linear. Or in Reinhart's case, like he left the Sabres and went to a better situation. As though context also matters here. Also Reinhart scored either 25 or 22 goals in the 4 years prior to what you are calling his 33g breakout... so idk if that is a great example. You think it is tied to age, I think it is tied to games played with a healthy dose of opportunity. 

Tage Thompson, broke out between game 145 and 223 and then upped it again after game 223 in his 94 pt season. He was 24. 

Brady Tkachuk, broke out at game 198-277 and was 22. 

Alex Tuch, breaks the trend as he broke out at 26 after being traded although we saw some regression. That was game 305-379

JJ Peterka, broke out technically at only 161 games although maybe this year is his true breakout, he is 23. 

 

[LGR4GM]

Dylan Cozens... big year at 21 after 120 games up to game 200 (the 68pt year) and then a massive regression last year. for games 202-281. I am not saying he is the regression year or the top year, I just think after this year ends, we will know what he is. Right now his sh% indicates he's a sub 10% shooter, so unless he works on that skill a lot, he might hover right there. He brings other things besides his shot though. 

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Almost like it isn't linear. Or in Reinhart's case, like he left the Sabres and went to a better situation. As though context also matters here. Also Reinhart scored either 25 or 22 goals in the 4 years prior to what you are calling his 33g breakout... so idk if that is a great example. You think it is tied to age, I think it is tied to games played with a healthy dose of opportunity. 

Tage Thompson, broke out between game 145 and 223 and then upped it again after game 223 in his 94 pt season. He was 24. 

Brady Tkachuk, broke out at game 198-277 and was 22. 

Alex Tuch, breaks the trend as he broke out at 26 after being traded although we saw some regression. That was game 305-379

JJ Peterka, broke out technically at only 161 games although maybe this year is his true breakout, he is 23. 

 

Yes I was going to point out that both got traded and then broke out 

looking at more of the top scorers...it's rare that any of them take 3 season or till 25 years old to break out.   They usually start scoring in their first or second year   
 

guess it proves, everyone is different and matures into their best at different rates 

I'm still in belief that Cozens will become a really good player  20-25 goals per year and a capable top 6 forward 

 

[LGR4GM]

30 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Yes I was going to point out that both got traded and then broke out 

looking at more of the top scorers...it's rare that any of them take 3 season or till 25 years old to break out.   They usually start scoring in their first or second year   
 

guess it proves, everyone is different and matures into their best at different rates 

I'm still in belief that Cozens will become a really good player  20-25 goals per year and a capable top 6 forward 

 

I think Cozens being a 60/65pt top 6 forward is very much within his reach and reasonable for what we have seen from him. 

[Pimlach]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Dylan Cozens... big year at 21 after 120 games up to game 200 (the 68pt year) and then a massive regression last year. for games 202-281. I am not saying he is the regression year or the top year, I just think after this year ends, we will know what he is. Right now his sh% indicates he's a sub 10% shooter, so unless he works on that skill a lot, he might hover right there. He brings other things besides his shot though. 

All true. 

I can see him as a late bloomer with a long career. 

[LGR4GM]

17 hours ago, Pimlach said:

All true. 

I can see him as a late bloomer with a long career. 

I don't think a guy who put up 68pts at 22yrs old should be labeled a late bloomer honestly. Sam Bennett is a late bloomer. We might be able to apply that to McLeod depending on how this year goes. 

[Pimlach]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think a guy who put up 68pts at 22yrs old should be labeled a late bloomer honestly. Sam Bennett is a late bloomer. We might be able to apply that to McLeod depending on how this year goes. 

Rewording - I see him peaking and being a better rounded player later in his career.  

[LGR4GM]

On 7/5/2024 at 5:17 PM, Flashsabre said:

McLeod MIGHT be Cirelli good this season.

 

On 7/5/2024 at 5:21 PM, LGR4GM said:

Seems a bit of a stretch 

I was wrong. I think some of the xGF can be explained by being on a better team, Cirelli is still the better defensive forward but I think it is fair to at least talk about McLeod in the same sentence with Cirelli. That said, McLeod shot at 22.4% which is 8% higher than his career average. Unless McLeod ups his shots on goal per game, he is going to see a regression in scoring goals next year. Sam Reinhart doesn't run at 22% consistently as a shooter. 

McLeod: 19g, 29a, 48pts, 51.6fo%, -5.5xGF

Cirelli: 26g, 27a, 53pts, 50.7fo%, +19xGF

yes, I know this thread is old SDS but I thought it deserved some life after as the season nears the end. I was a little too cold on the trade and should have been more upbeat. Overall this board though was fairly happy with it and thus far it has worked out. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

McLeod shot at 22.4% which is 8% higher than his career average.

Actually it’s nearly double his career number.  The average you are utilizing includes this season which inflates his prior performance.  In his 3+ years in Edm he averaged 11.9.  

There is no way he replicates his puck luck going forward.  

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Actually it’s nearly double his career number.  The average you are utilizing includes this season which inflates his prior performance.  In his 3+ years in Edm he averaged 11.9.  

There is no way he replicates his puck luck going forward.  

I don't think you should toss out 85 shots from his sample which is basically 1/4 of his total shots taken just because it bumps up his avg. He needs to shoot more and I would be willing to hear that his sh% is closer to 13 than 14 but I wouldn't toss the entire sample. 

Especially when he switched teams so the way he was utilized changed. 

Edit: also I am nitpicking but his career avg without this year and ignoring his 10 game rookie year is 12.03%, not 11.9. If you are willing to completely toss his 85 shots from Buffalo, you also have to toss his 3hots from his first 10 games. 

Edited yesterday at 01:39 PM by LGR4GM

[JustOneParade]

I like McLeod a lot. I'll be happier seeing him get to 20 goals than I will Tage getting to 40. Would be an excellent 3C on a good playoff team.

[GASabresIUFAN]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think you should toss out 85 shots from his sample which is basically 1/4 of his total shots taken just because it bumps up his avg. He needs to shoot more and I would be willing to hear that his sh% is closer to 13 than 14 but I wouldn't toss the entire sample. 

Especially when he switched teams so the way he was utilized changed. 

Edit: also I am nitpicking but his career avg without this year and ignoring his 10 game rookie year is 12.03%, not 11.9. If you are willing to completely toss his 85 shots from Buffalo, you also have to toss his 3hots from his first 10 games. 

I’m not tossing his time in Buffalo, but it’s a more accurate to compare this season to his prior career before Buffalo.  Before coming to Buffalo his career shooting % is 11.9 not 14.2. Comparing this season to this season plus prior seasons skews the data.  You don’t compare things to themselves. 
 

 

[LGR4GM]

17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I’m not tossing his time in Buffalo, but it’s a more accurate to compare this season to his prior career before Buffalo.  Before coming to Buffalo his career shooting % is 11.9 not 14.2. Comparing this season to this season plus prior seasons skews the data.  You don’t compare things to themselves. 
 

 

Again, you need to toss out the first 10 games and his sh% is 12.04. A 10 game sample with 3 shots and no goals is also skewing the data a bit. 

I also don't agree with your conclusion. You can't toss out 1/4 of a sample and act as though it is an outlier that shouldn't be averaged in. On top of that there is a prior season where McLeod shoots at 14.1% so even if we adjust for this season, it stands to reason that his average is not 11.9%. You are doing the very thing you are arguing against, comparing 3 seasons and ignoring 1 and then claiming his sh% for his CAREER is 11.9%. It is in no way more accurate to compare 3 seasons before coming to Buffalo and claiming Buffalo's season should just be ignored. How, who, and where he plays all changed. He went from 14mins a game to almost 17mins a game. Also, I did what you said in the bold, I looked at the 3 prior years (not 4 because again, 3hots and 10games is useless), and I looked at this season. Hence why I suggested 13% is probably the closer number. He is used differently here, already has a season over 11.9% so in the 4 years we are talking about, he has 2 seasons over 11.9% and 2 more seasons within .9 and .6 of that respectively. 

As I said, his career sh% if you adjust for the overage of this year is probably around 13%. I think that is a fair number for McLeod. 

Edited yesterday at 02:27 PM by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

The short version is I think it is exceedingly flawed to say "in the last 3 years his sh% was this 11.9% (it's 12.05%) and therefore his 22.4% his off by 22.4-11.9 when you are ignoring that the 22.4 still gets factored in and would be 2/4 seasons over the 11.9% you are using. 

[dudacek]

I'm curious where he's going to settle.

Hes going to fall back next year; nearly every one does after having this kind of breakout.

The question is what will he typically be over the next 5 years?

What I've liked most about McLeod is how often I see him covering and supporting on the backcheck: "oh *****, we're going to get caught.. nope, McLeod is there"

On this team it's very noticeable. Tuch and Krebs are the only other ones doing that even half as much as McLeod does.

[Flashsabre]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'm curious where he's going to settle.

Hes going to fall back next year; nearly every one does after having this kind of breakout.

The question is what will he typically be over the next 5 years?

What I've liked most about McLeod is how often I see him covering and supporting on the backcheck: "oh *****, we're going to get caught.. nope, McLeod is there"

On this team it's very noticeable. Tuch and Krebs are the only other ones doing that even half as much as McLeod does.

McLeod was a young player whose feet were as quick as McDavid’s but his mind didn’t match the speed. Now as he is maturing the game is slowing down for him. He has always been a good defensive centre now the offence is coming with more opportunities in Buffalo. He is the type of player you win with. The best 2 way centre they have had since ROR.

[Mustache of God]

Here's what Savoie's numbers look like this year for those who are curious as I was. 

Looks like he didn't do much with his 4 games of NHL action but he's playing well / as expected in the AHL. 

[Drag0nDan]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

The short version is I think it is exceedingly flawed to say "in the last 3 years his sh% was this 11.9% (it's 12.05%) and therefore his 22.4% his off by 22.4-11.9 when you are ignoring that the 22.4 still gets factored in and would be 2/4 seasons over the 11.9% you are using. 

He was also the 4th center on the oilers behind mcdavid draisaitl and RNH.  His linemates were likely some of the weaker wings on the team.  I'm not sure how that factors into shooting percentage, shot selection, or just generally how many shots you generate in that scenario. 

Derek Ryan is by probably every analytic not generating a lot of scoring chances.  Ditto for Janmark.  Connor Brown.  2nd year Holloway (also what a great offer sheet that turned out to be for St. Louis).  I don't know for sure who his common linemates were, but i'd assume some combination of all of these guys.  So i always think shooting percentage raw is tough to evaluate - and how much of a drag on his numbers these might have been.  

[mjd1001]

3 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

He was also the 4th center on the oilers behind mcdavid draisaitl and RNH.  His linemates were likely some of the weaker wings on the team.  I'm not sure how that factors into shooting percentage, shot selection, or just generally how many shots you generate in that scenario. 

 

No proof for this, but I'll throw it out there...

As a 4th line center, you aren't going to 'pass up' a great scoring chance if its there, but you might not work hard to try to get it.  Your game, your job might simply be keep the puck in the offensive zone.  Work it into the corners. Basically, run time/kill time while McDavid and/or Draisaitl get a rest.   Again, that might be an oversimplification...but my point is he may not have 'worked' as hard for prime scoring chances as he is allowed to do now.

Of course NHL edge stats say otherwise. Last year with Edmonton, he had more 'high danger' chances per game than he does this year with the Sabres.  Last year he had 42 "high danger" shots in 81 games, this year he has 29 in 71 games. So maybe the above point isn't even true. Then again, their definition of a high danger chance is just how close to the net are you....last year he could have just been whacking away at loose pucks in front of the net where this year he is actually trying to legit score.  I'm not sure.