Do the Sabres have enough offence?

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

Cozens has been too inconsistent, drafted later too.

Draft status is important for younger players.

No it isn't. There isn't a single GM in the entire NHL that gives a flying crap at this point that Byram was drafted 4th and Cozens 7th. 

That draft was 5 years ago. 

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

Seems accurate, I might give us 85 due to better coaching and internal improvement. 

Edited July 5 by LGR4GM

[TRIP65]

4 hours ago, JP51 said:

I agree here... if they become truly harder to play against... they can control the puck down low, take space away in the defensive zone and create neutral zone turnovers . Just in puck possession alone I think the offense improves... the other thing they need to do to supplement this is become WAAAAY better on faces offs and gain initial control of the puck so they are not chasing 60% of the time... 

 

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

That might be true, but I look at his shooting percentage. Since he moved to center, for 2 years it was close to 15%. Last year it dropped quite a bit....and there is a reason for it...a possible/likely injury.  I did a huge write up a few months ago how Austin Matthews had a similar injury for a season, and that was the season his production dropped.  The percentage his production dropped, his shooting percentage drop, almost EXACTLY mirrored what Tage went through for one year with a similar injury.

Tage didn't get less shots last year, it was just the first time in 2 seasons (not one season of sample size like with Cozens), that there was a difference. So, I could be wrong of course but that is why I think Tage is back to his form of the previous 2 years, not what you got last year.

 

 

He helped Peterka 2nd half to a where he is now, close to a 30 goal scorer.

[Archie Lee]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

 

I assume it is the Ullmark addition that has people high on a big jump for Ottawa.  I don't think Perron, Amadio and Jenson (less Chychrun), is more impressive than what we did with our forward group. I like Ullmark. I don't like Travis Green all that much.  

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

 

He helped Peterka 2nd half to a where he is now, close to a 30 goal scorer.

Yup. And from March 3 until the last 2 games of the season, Tage didn't go more than 1 game without a point. He was back to his usual self and Peterka and Thompson were good together. 

[TRIP65]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I sure am. Again, we know he had an arm/wrist injury last year, that was admitted to, and again, the drop in production mirrors what Matthews did a couple years ago.

Its not 'coping'.  Its taking data that is given, applying a similar data set to it and drawing a logical conclusion.  That may be correct, it may be incorrect, but to me it seems most of the 'coping' being done on this board is by the perma-negatives that just want to make fun of anything they don't agree with.

When you shoot less you score less whatever the reason. Probably hurt, since Adams didn't add to roster except Benson scoring went down with Quinn out too. Played Defense more and did a better job as season went on. Eric Johnson and Clifton on wrong side really hurt Sabres starting off. Offense never really recovered since Sabres were done Early from Playoff run.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Archie Lee said:

I assume it is the Ullmark addition that has people high on a big jump for Ottawa.  I don't think Perron, Amadio and Jenson (less Chychrun), is more impressive than what we did with our forward group. I like Ullmark. I don't like Travis Green all that much.  

Our group is hard to project. Benson, Power, Quinn, and to a degree Peterka are all wild cards. 

[GoPuckYourself]

1 hour ago, TRIP65 said:

What if Ehlers would hit the Sabres Abyss???  Happened to Hall and other vets brought here that year.

Just as likely as all the other scenarios you presented all seeming to be happening at the same time.

You presented all scenarios as a Negative dive.

 

You seem to forget Eric Johnson was part of the Defense for more than 1/2 the year, he is gone.

Also forget Bo was here for 20 games? he didn't have time for a training camp.

Also Power is here for his 3rd full season older and I am sure heavier.

Granto played all youngsters mostly for Preseason, pretty sure Ruff will not and have Sabres ready for game one.

Bottom 6 has been almost completely redone. Surely is going to be adding some grit to balance out the outcome.

New Top line was formed last year and played well,   Tuch  Tage  Peterka 

 

Ruff is a good Coach, all outcomes won't be Negative!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

 

Ehlers could definitely fall on his face but he's been really consistent point wise although he hasn't been a model of health until last season. I wasn't presenting it as a negative but there are alot of what if's with this roster as it stands and the main focal point seems to be that Ruff will turn this all around and I hope that he does but it did take him until his 3rd season to get the Devils in the playoffs. I'm sure it won't all be necative but will the positive outweigh the negative? We shall see. 

[TRIP65]

4 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Ehlers could definitely fall on his face but he's been really consistent point wise although he hasn't been a model of health until last season. I wasn't presenting it as a negative but there are alot of what if's with this roster as it stands and the main focal point seems to be that Ruff will turn this all around and I hope that he does but it did take him until his 3rd season to get the Devils in the playoffs. I'm sure it won't all be necative but will the positive outweigh the negative? We shall see. 

That is better and I didn't say Ehlers wouldn't help this Team. Sabres are not the same team they were when Hall was here. Eichel for Sabres was a Cancer. Great player with poor attitude here. Was a Bad Captain.

NJ and Dallas were in Complete Rebuilds, there is a difference. But Ruff did lead them to the Playoffs. Didn't take 13 years.

Buffalo has TOP players in the League even if they didn't perform well last year. We beat some good teams and that wasn't a Fluke. Talent is there.

When we scored more than 4 goals in games we usually won. Also did well staying in Low scoring games which should get better under Ruff. We need more OT pts.

We got Goaltending, Good Defense and better Offense 2nd half.

We lost the Season from the 1st half Performance digging us too Deep a whole.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Adding McLeod today is a solid step in the right direction. Not flashy but solid.  An improvement of Krebs.  Now Krebs, Lafferty and Krebs can fight it out for the 3C/4C jobs and now we have a little depth in case of injury.

Do we now add Savoie to the list of ex-Sabres competing for a Cup?  

 

[#freejame]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Adding McLeod today is a solid step in the right direction. Not flashy but solid.  An improvement of Krebs.  Now Krebs, Lafferty and Krebs can fight it out for the 3C/4C jobs and now we have a little depth in case of injury.

Do we now add Savoie to the list of ex-Sabres competing for a Cup?  

 

If Edmonton deems him NHL ready, he’s likely going to find himself stepping into a very good situation in terms of matchups and offensive opportunities. 

[JohninMinn.]

20 hours ago, dudacek said:

The question about whether this team still has enough offence is an interesting one. I crunched some numbers.

Looking at the current starting 18, the Sabres have 10 guys who have been around long enough to have a reasonable track record. For these guys, I simply averaged their past 2 seasons as a moderate guesstimate for what we could expect this year.

• Thompson 38
• Tuch 29
• Cozens 24
• Zucker 21
• Greenway 8
• Lafferty 12
• Aube-Kubel 5
• Dahlin 17
• Jokiharju 3
• Clifton 5

The other 8 are harder because they don’t really have reliable track records because of youth and/or injury. For these guys, I mostly leaned toward last year’s totals but extrapolated some based on goals per game and previous years totals.

• Quinn 22
• Peterka 24
• Benson 11
• Krebs 8
• Malenstyn 6
• Power 6
• Byram 12
• Samuelsson 2

Finally, teams get contributions throughout the year from players outside their 18 starters. Last year, forwards outside the Sabres top 12 and D outside their top 6 contributed 20 goals, so I’m going to go out on a limb and say that will happen again.

The team, as constituted above, can reasonably be expected to score 273 goals, which is 29 more than last year and would have been good for 10th in the NHL.

There’s no guarantees, obviously - the above doesn’t account for devastating injuries or big breakout seasons. And there’s a new coach, which will mean a different system and different deployments. But there is nothing there that seems out of whack with what these players have produced before, the vast majority of them in similar roles.

What have I missed?

Thompson is the mother of all question marks. He needs to get aggressive.

[BillsShredder83]

21 hours ago, dudacek said:

The question about whether this team still has enough offence is an interesting one. I crunched some numbers.

Looking at the current starting 18, the Sabres have 10 guys who have been around long enough to have a reasonable track record. For these guys, I simply averaged their past 2 seasons as a moderate guesstimate for what we could expect this year.

• Thompson 38
• Tuch 29
• Cozens 24
• Zucker 21
• Greenway 8
• Lafferty 12
• Aube-Kubel 5
• Dahlin 17
• Jokiharju 3
• Clifton 5

The other 8 are harder because they don’t really have reliable track records because of youth and/or injury. For these guys, I mostly leaned toward last year’s totals but extrapolated some based on goals per game and previous years totals.

• Quinn 22
• Peterka 24
• Benson 11
• Krebs 8
• Malenstyn 6
• Power 6
• Byram 12
• Samuelsson 2

Finally, teams get contributions throughout the year from players outside their 18 starters. Last year, forwards outside the Sabres top 12 and D outside their top 6 contributed 20 goals, so I’m going to go out on a limb and say that will happen again.

The team, as constituted above, can reasonably be expected to score 273 goals, which is 29 more than last year and would have been good for 10th in the NHL.

There’s no guarantees, obviously - the above doesn’t account for devastating injuries or big breakout seasons. And there’s a new coach, which will mean a different system and different deployments. But there is nothing there that seems out of whack with what these players have produced before, the vast majority of them in similar roles.

What have I missed?

Yikes, TBH this roster doesnt strike fear in anyone, especially after this past year. we looked like a team turning the corner, if we could land a goalie..... well, we did, and "developed" Levi (sort of, but hopeful).

 

What i will say, and it will be unpopular sentiment here.... Ruff will have these dudes playing to their potential.

 

Hated buying Skinner out, without giving him a chance under new coach... but the one thing it does bring is a wakeup call.  If a player is mailing it in, he;ll be gone or riding pine bare minimum. Wish we could have a do over from last year with Ruff.... wouldve rather built up off that momentum. Feels like we're starting from a dead, screeching stop as of now. We should be be to see by Christmas, even if just off effort.  Again ----> unpopular incoming--- stay at or around .500 hockey by Christmas, but the guys are skating their ***** off, playing for one another, doing the gritty s***, we have a chance

[triumph_communes]

Lindy Ruff teams are all about coming out fast and hard and getting an early lead then defending the Alamo until you reach the finish line. Complete opposite of our team last year who regularly didn’t show up until the 2nd or 3rd period. Both styles can be frustrating in their own light. At least the players we acquired can all handle defending the Alamo because nobody on our old roster could 

Edited July 6 by triumph_communes

[PerreaultForever]

14 hours ago, SabreFinn said:

Well, what I remember from him playing in Colorado he had a creativity to create offence. Unfortunately we did not see much of that in Sabres except from a few games in the beginning. Or he just had the flow of his career during that playoff that led to their Stanley cup win. However, that is what I ment with talent.

Well the question about him isn't if he can score or not, the question about him, as a D man, is can he defend. 

[SabreFinn]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Well the question about him isn't if he can score or not, the question about him, as a D man, is can he defend. 

That is why I would have liked a trade or a signing for a RHD, to get better balanced pairs, and Byram to play more by his strenghts. 

[SabreFinn]

16 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

I think next to Cozens, Power might be the most overrated player on the roster. It could be personal bias. To me the guys that are going to make or break our seasons are Tage, Tuch, Peterka and Quinn. Toss in we have to improve on PK and PP. It's maddening because we truly don't have any elite guys outside of Dahlin IMO, Tage looked like he could be one before last season but maybe he'll rebound under Ruff. 

I like both Power and Cozens, but they get way too much money to be that young and not ready. But that is something between Adams and their agents. I hope it will be worth it in the end. I do expect steps forward from both.

[SabreFinn]

5 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Lindy Ruff teams are all about coming out fast and hard and getting an early lead then defending the Alamo until you reach the finish line. Complete opposite of our team last year who regularly didn’t show up until the 2nd or 3rd period. Both styles can be frustrating in their own light. At least the players we acquired can all handle defending the Alamo because nobody on our old roster could 

Changing the way we play too much comes with a huge risk also. Even if the change is needed.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, SabreFinn said:

Changing the way we play too much comes with a huge risk also. Even if the change is needed.

That’s a salient point 

I’d imagine there’s a learning curve, too

camp is extra important this year 

[SabreFinn]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

That’s a salient point 

I’d imagine there’s a learning curve, too

camp is extra important this year 

Florida went from Presidents to almost missing playoff. But I think that was extreme.

[SabreFinn]

17 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Uh, no.   Talented how?  Why is Byram even on here, and ahead of Thompson.  A healthy  and more mature Tage is a beast.  

I really hope Tage will be back scoring 40+ goals. I just hesitate he will. 

[PerreaultForever]

46 minutes ago, SabreFinn said:

That is why I would have liked a trade or a signing for a RHD, to get better balanced pairs, and Byram to play more by his strenghts. 

As I said in another thread, a lot depends on a return of Samuelson. 

[tom webster]

10 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Lindy Ruff teams are all about coming out fast and hard and getting an early lead then defending the Alamo until you reach the finish line. Complete opposite of our team last year who regularly didn’t show up until the 2nd or 3rd period. Both styles can be frustrating in their own light. At least the players we acquired can all handle defending the Alamo because nobody on our old roster could 

New Jersey was the second worst team in the league at scoring the first goal, just a tad better then Buffalo last year.

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, tom webster said:

New Jersey was the second worst team in the league at scoring the first goal, just a tad better then Buffalo last year.

What about the year prior when they had better goaltending? 

[tom webster]

14 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

What about the year prior when they had better goaltending? 

Their goals by period in 2022/2023

First period, for 69, against 67

Second period 106/87

Third period 103/64

Overtime 11/4

Edited July 6 by tom webster

[French Collection]

Here is my stab at team scoring.
Most of my estimates lean on the side of optimism, but the scorers are entering their primes or starting their ascent.

There will be injuries, but the Rochester guys will be closer to making a contribution than last year. Unless it is something like TNT long term, they won’t drop off too much.

I grouped them by line, so the names could change and need adjusting.

Thompson Tuch Peterka 102. TNT returns to 40, Peterka 30+ and Tuch 25+.

Cozens, Quinn Benson 74. Quinn will be the difference maker while Benson is 15+.

Zucker McLeod Greenway 42. Between 10 and 18 is achievable by all here.

Krebs, Lafferty, Aube-Kubel, Manlenstyn 34. Between 6-12 for 4 guys.

Dahlin, Power, Byram, Jokiharju, Samuelsson, Clifton 40. It’s possible the first 3 guys hit this number, bonus from the rest.

Kulich, Rosen, Rousek, Murray, Tullio, Bryson, Johnson, Gilbert, Clague, ?? 12. An injury replacement that makes a difference could bump this up a bit.

These numbers get them back to 22/23 stats (300+) so some regression still gets them above the 23/24 level.