Do the Sabres have enough offence?

[GoPuckYourself]

14 minutes ago, B-U-F-F-A-L-O said:

Even hating the 3rd line like I do, I do like the five new Sabres we added though two of them should have more skill…. What I’m trying to say is, I had my doubts about the Sabres actually getting harder to play against this year. I was worried they would only get one guy, the D-man from Buffalo, and that’s it. We needed at least four imho, and beat it by one
 

One thing Lindy definitely has to do is hammer home that these vets aren’t here to protect them really,they are hear to show us how you have to play in the NHL… Everyone, the whole team! I’d say everyday and twice on Sundays…. Gain muscle! Go get the puck and win it! Then go to the net and smash it in that goal!

etc….

I'm glad you mentioned the "add muscle" part because sometimes I think hockey is different and they don't teach thesekids how to workout or have a nutrion program but it was great to hear our #1 pick in his post tourney interview talk about how the Sabres have him in a nutrition program or are at least monitoring it which was great to hear. I'd like to see Benson get a little thicker and harder to knock down since at times last year he would get dumped to the ground quite easily. 

[PerreaultForever]

36 minutes ago, dudacek said:

And I just want to say that what players do in their 3rd or 4th season is more typically called "breakout year" because it might be an outlier, and it might be a sign of what's to come.

Perreault improved 3 straight years, then got hurt then came back with a "career" year in his fifth season.

And then he smashed that career season with another one the very next year.

Danny Briere had a "career" year, making a huge jump to 60 points in his 4th season.

He stayed around that mark for 3 more years, and then erupted with his real career year with 95

Pominville broke out with 80 in his 3rd season and it was his real "career" year. The highest he ever got after that was 73.

Many of the Sabres are too young to know for certain whether they've had their career year.

 

Which is why we shouldn't toss that term around so easily. 

Perreault's 5th year career year wasn't a career year at all. Briere's would be a true "break out year" as you alluded to. Better term. 

Pominville's was definitely a career year. 

Part of these career years is also based on who your linemates are/were. Skinner, for example, doesn't have his career year without getting slotted up with Eichel and Reinhart. Perreault's numbers went up with the French Connection. 

In any event it doesn't matter. At the moment for our big contracts, Thompson is a little overpaid, Cozens is vastly overpaid, Dahlin has arguably earned it but I'd say slightly overpaid and Power, well that one is just dumb unless he does have a breakout season soon. 

[SabreFinn]

Our most talented players are Dahlin, Power and Byram. That is why I most of all wished for a steady RH top four stay at home defenseman this offseason, to give them just a tiny bit more possibility to create offence. And what Roy and Pesce got should have been possible to match by us. I am dissapointed by that. 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, SabreFinn said:

Our most talented players are Dahlin, Power and Byram. That is why I most of all wished for a steady RH top four stay at home defenseman this offseason, to give them just a tiny bit more possibility to create offence. And what Roy and Pesce got should have been possible to match by us. I am dissapointed by that. 

Byram?

Define "talent" then. 

[SabreFinn]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Byram?

Define "talent" then. 

Well, what I remember from him playing in Colorado he had a creativity to create offence. Unfortunately we did not see much of that in Sabres except from a few games in the beginning. Or he just had the flow of his career during that playoff that led to their Stanley cup win. However, that is what I ment with talent.

[bob_sauve28]

I'm really looking forward to Quinn and Peterka having full seasons this year. Super talented players ready to move the needle. Cozens started coming around again towards the end of the season so hopefully these three not just score a lot, but score when it matters. I could see those three being the driving offensive force on the team surpassing the "top line" of Tage, Tuch and whoever. This could cause a serious reevaluation of who and how the PP is structured, and lets face it, there needs to be a debate in the organization about that. 

Benson is a big wild card here. Does he simply get even better and cash in more on his opportunities? The sky is the limit with this kid. The question is when will we see that? next season might be too soon, or maybe not. He has already surprised everyone. No one should be too surprised if he scores 25-30 goals next year. Or maybe a sophomore slump is in the offing for the kid. Krebs can also take step forward. 

If injuries happen, who gets called up will be interesting to see. Can any of our young forwards come up from Rochester and not just play, but contribute? Of Rosen, Östlund, Kulich, Savoie or someone else, who gets called up, and can they help out with goal scoring? 

 

[PickaPecaPickles]

I started with looking at GF and GA last year, 246 (this is exactly 3 per game) and 244. I think most would agree their GA will go down a bit, so do they have enough O to maintain the GF.  My conclusion from the #s is it's the PP.  Comparing 2022-23 to 2023-24 they went from 63 to 37 and the key players:

TT 20 and 11

Tuch 8  and 2

Dahlin  6 and 6

Skinner 8 and 8

VO  7 and 1

Cozens  5 and 2

The don't need to get back to 63, but 50 (+13) is reasonable. Between TT, Tuch, and VO, they lost 21 goals. So, the keys to answering your question about the O (to me) are: can Tuch and TT improve over last year, who will make up for Skinner, and do they have a sniper like VO?

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, Thorny said:

Yup. I think the fact it’s hard to nail down a solid projection is sort of the emerging key - like you said, there are a lot of ifs. Therefore we can’t imo say we have enough  with anything close to the amount or certainty a team on the verge of missing the playoffs 5 straight times under this regime deserves to have 

When one depends on too many "ifs", you are already starting off in a precarious position. Injuries are inevitable. Our team is not in a position to handle those setbacks, especially to a primary player, without being derailed. There is a thinness to this roster that bothers me a lot. As you noted, there are simply too many "ifs/assumptions" built into the starting roster. It makes me very queasy. 

[French Collection]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Just want to say that players rarely match "career years", that's why they are called career years. 

There is a higher possibility of that happening when they are putting those numbers up before they’re hitting their 26-28 year old seasons. The youngest team in the league should have a ceiling above last year’s total.

[Pimlach]

5 hours ago, SabreFinn said:

Our most talented players are Dahlin, Power and Byram. That is why I most of all wished for a steady RH top four stay at home defenseman this offseason, to give them just a tiny bit more possibility to create offence. And what Roy and Pesce got should have been possible to match by us. I am dissapointed by that. 

Uh, no.   Talented how?  Why is Byram even on here, and ahead of Thompson.  A healthy  and more mature Tage is a beast.  

[mjd1001]

40 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Uh, no.   Talented how?  Why is Byram even on here, and ahead of Thompson.  A healthy  and more mature Tage is a beast.  

I'm still on my thinking if Tage is healthy, you are getting around 50 goals from him this year.

[bob_sauve28]

15 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm still on my thinking if Tage is healthy, you are getting around 50 goals from him this year.

That would be nice! Who do you think plays on his line opposite Tuch?

[dudacek]

53 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Uh, no.   Talented how?  Why is Byram even on here, and ahead of Thompson.  A healthy  and more mature Tage is a beast.  

 

12 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm still on my thinking if Tage is healthy, you are getting around 50 goals from him this year.

I think a lot of people around here don't believe 47/47/94 was real and Tage should be more properly regarded as a Miro Satan-level player.

[The Jokeman]

6 hours ago, SabreFinn said:

Our most talented players are Dahlin, Power and Byram. That is why I most of all wished for a steady RH top four stay at home defenseman this offseason, to give them just a tiny bit more possibility to create offence. And what Roy and Pesce got should have been possible to match by us. I am dissapointed by that. 

I think next to Cozens, Power might be the most overrated player on the roster. It could be personal bias. To me the guys that are going to make or break our seasons are Tage, Tuch, Peterka and Quinn. Toss in we have to improve on PK and PP. It's maddening because we truly don't have any elite guys outside of Dahlin IMO, Tage looked like he could be one before last season but maybe he'll rebound under Ruff. 

[oddoublee]

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

I think a lot of people around here don't believe 47/47/94 was real and Tage should be more properly regarded as a Miro Satan-level player.

I happen to be one of those people. I like him, but my expectations are close to what we got last year. I see a 30-35 goal scorer who logs 60-70 points per year. 

[JP51]

10 hours ago, 7+6=13 said:

If they become truly harder to play against, it can often result in more offense.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a bump up in some players production.

I agree here... if they become truly harder to play against... they can control the puck down low, take space away in the defensive zone and create neutral zone turnovers . Just in puck possession alone I think the offense improves... the other thing they need to do to supplement this is become WAAAAY better on faces offs and gain initial control of the puck so they are not chasing 60% of the time... 

[French Collection]

The guys brought in for the 4th line are hopefully on the PK so that TNT isn’t blocking shots. 
Greenway was also a solid PKer.
Getting a healthy season from him means around 40 goals.

A reinvigorated PP where the focus is not only the TNT one timer should help overall numbers. I personally would like to see Quinn as an option. He could be a bumper player like Point does for the Bolts.

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

 

I think a lot of people around here don't believe 47/47/94 was real and Tage should be more properly regarded as a Miro Satan-level player.

That might be true, but I look at his shooting percentage. Since he moved to center, for 2 years it was close to 15%. Last year it dropped quite a bit....and there is a reason for it...a possible/likely injury.  I did a huge write up a few months ago how Austin Matthews had a similar injury for a season, and that was the season his production dropped.  The percentage his production dropped, his shooting percentage drop, almost EXACTLY mirrored what Tage went through for one year with a similar injury.

Tage didn't get less shots last year, it was just the first time in 2 seasons (not one season of sample size like with Cozens), that there was a difference. So, I could be wrong of course but that is why I think Tage is back to his form of the previous 2 years, not what you got last year.

 

 

Edited July 5 by mjd1001

[steveoath]

Nothing to add to the discussion except I’m 100% on board with the term “fudge factor”. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

No, so the key will be if the Sabres are better at preventing goals, which we all know wins in the playoff.

Edited July 5 by Sabres Fan in NS

[...]

Are we really attributing Tommy Dangles' drop in production last season to an injury? Is that how fans are coping?

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, ... said:

Are we really attributing Tommy Dangles' drop in production last season to an injury? Is that how fans are coping?

I sure am. Again, we know he had an arm/wrist injury last year, that was admitted to, and again, the drop in production mirrors what Matthews did a couple years ago.

Its not 'coping'.  Its taking data that is given, applying a similar data set to it and drawing a logical conclusion.  That may be correct, it may be incorrect, but to me it seems most of the 'coping' being done on this board is by the perma-negatives that just want to make fun of anything they don't agree with.

[Pimlach]

26 minutes ago, ... said:

Are we really attributing Tommy Dangles' drop in production last season to an injury? Is that how fans are coping?

He played hurt most of the season as hockey players do.   The wrist and thumb were hurt.  The thumb injury while blocking a shot on a PK.  It was right there on TV and he missed some  games.  
 

With the additions that Adams just made, and Lindy at the helm, it’s unlikely Tage is on the PK this coming season. 

Edited July 5 by Pimlach

[TRIP65]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Exactly and those career years will skew projections.

Career years don't happen at under your Prime years. Your projecting up and young in your years so every year should be a career year hopefully.

Take Tage, almost looked like Tage was gonna get 60 but he got hurt late in year. So Tage has more Career type years ahead given what happens around him.

Tuch too, injury stopped him maybe getting to 40. Heading into his Prime so a career type year is there for him.

Peterka is projecting up too. Mid 30's would not be a Surprise.

We don't know about the second line yet, If a trade is to happen it will be that line and a Player being moved out with that change. My guess is Cozens would be moved for a more Proven 2C. Also could be moved down to 3C since $7 mil would be what a 3C would cost for a proven upgrade player. Be Happy with Cozens as a 3C

 

 

14 hours ago, B-U-F-F-A-L-O said:

The third line continued. I definitely think we absolutely should have gotten someone better for 3C. We needed a tough and talented player there. Not only for the C job and his points but to help the 3rd line wingers more. That line really lacks talent right now. But not only that none of them can really play up either. Third line is just a huge weakness for this team, imho… If we end playing the first two more more because of this you risk injury and burnout…. I think we only have top six forwards at this time. A good team, I think has at least seven, more like eight top six players or at least a very good third line that they can at least fill in without dragging the line down right away…

Tuch  Tage  Peterka

Quinn  Savoie  Benson

Malenstyn  Cozens  Zucker

Greenway  Lafferty  Rousek/Aube-Kubel

 

14 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I'm glad you mentioned the "add muscle" part because sometimes I think hockey is different and they don't teach thesekids how to workout or have a nutrion program but it was great to hear our #1 pick in his post tourney interview talk about how the Sabres have him in a nutrition program or are at least monitoring it which was great to hear. I'd like to see Benson get a little thicker and harder to knock down since at times last year he would get dumped to the ground quite easily. 

He was 18-19

 

9 hours ago, SabreFinn said:

Well, what I remember from him playing in Colorado he had a creativity to create offence. Unfortunately we did not see much of that in Sabres except from a few games in the beginning. Or he just had the flow of his career during that playoff that led to their Stanley cup win. However, that is what I ment with talent.

Was a 6th overall pick from a GOOD CLUB. Only traded him for a 2C Center they needed and now we need one. Don't listen to the Wisea$$

 

7 hours ago, JohnC said:

When one depends on too many "ifs", you are already starting off in a precarious position. Injuries are inevitable. Our team is not in a position to handle those setbacks, especially to a primary player, without being derailed. There is a thinness to this roster that bothers me a lot. As you noted, there are simply too many "ifs/assumptions" built into the starting roster. It makes me very queasy. 

We Veteran'd up the Roster a bit. Tage and Tuch are no longer "young". Almost NO teams with extra TOP 6 without moving up young players or trading.

Sabres have one of the Deepest Prospect list in the League. We have many Players who could be brought up and used, if they don't work they can bring someone else to try.

If none of these players work then you know the Sabres have "FAILED" in their drafting

 

7 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Uh, no.   Talented how?  Why is Byram even on here, and ahead of Thompson.  A healthy  and more mature Tage is a beast.  

Byram is a top 6 drafted player for a Good Club who only traded him away for a 2C Center they signed for $7mil/yr

Byram has a full offseason to find proper partner. Ruff knows Defense. Have no doubt Byram will be a Top 10 player on this team.

I have Tage, Tuch, Peterka above him. Quinn would be if fully healthy. Cozens has been too inconsistent, drafted later too.

Draft status is important for younger players.

 

6 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

That would be nice! Who do you think plays on his line opposite Tuch?

Peterka if they don't make a Trade.

Be stupid to harm your best line last year!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

5 hours ago, oddoublee said:

I happen to be one of those people. I like him, but my expectations are close to what we got last year. I see a 30-35 goal scorer who logs 60-70 points per year. 

Until Tage got hurt, came back early as a Winger he was on Pace for 60+ and being Compared to Lemeuix wrongly.

Tage is a Legitimate 1st Center in League.

One of the few untouchables on this Roster.

 

15 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I'm not sure it's something you're missing but you're adding in a year in which every single player had career years then came down to earth. Are we getting the players from 2 seasons ago or last year? Adding Ruff should in theory help this but what if it doesn't, Benson should take the next step but what if he doesn't? Can Quinn stay healthy for an entire season? Will Peterka improve upon last year? Nothing changed along the defense, will they get better defensively? Again there are so many what ifs here which is why I want a guy like Ehlers in a trade since he is the model of consistency imo and at least you know what you'll be getting in him. Adams did this last year as well, instead of improving upon the lineup he kept staus quo. He went out and changed the bottom 6 which is awesome an love the look of that 4th line now and even the 3rd should be pretty solid but has done nothing once again to replace Skinner. Just hoping that either Peterka takes the next step or Benson does is terrible mismanagement again (but I know the offseason isn't over but thats my take unless he fixes the problem). Also of course the 3rd line center postion is being given to Krebs who imo has not earned it whatsoever.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What if Ehlers would hit the Sabres Abyss???  Happened to Hall and other vets brought here that year.

Just as likely as all the other scenarios you presented all seeming to be happening at the same time.

You presented all scenarios as a Negative dive.

 

You seem to forget Eric Johnson was part of the Defense for more than 1/2 the year, he is gone.

Also forget Bo was here for 20 games? he didn't have time for a training camp.

Also Power is here for his 3rd full season older and I am sure heavier.

Granto played all youngsters mostly for Preseason, pretty sure Ruff will not and have Sabres ready for game one.

Bottom 6 has been almost completely redone. Surely is going to be adding some grit to balance out the outcome.

New Top line was formed last year and played well,   Tuch  Tage  Peterka 

 

Ruff is a good Coach, all outcomes won't be Negative!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

 

 

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I looked at both the guys average 3 years running and also look at their career and recent shooting % with average shoots on goals the last 3 seasons and did a comparison.  

You bring up TNT who averaged 38 goals the last 3 seasons, but in two of those seasons he had shooting % of over 15%.  He fell to 11.8% last season.  Prior to the last 3 seasons he had never reached even 10%.  Using his Buffalo shooting % of 12.9% and his 264 shots on goal (his 3 year average) I came up with 34 goals.  I also had Zucker at 16, and Cozens at 21. Tuch was also less than your projection.  His career shooting % is 11.4%.  During his career year he posted an out of character 16.5%.  Using his career shooting % and the average shots over the last 2 years, I had him at 24 goals.  I had Kubel (8) and Benson (14) a little higher than you did.  Benson's increase is a projection from having an increased role next season.

All told, I looked at all top 18 skaters and came up with 241 goals, plus a fudge factor of 12 for 253.   

Fudge Factor: I looked at the Sabres goals by players who played less than 40 games for the team the last 3 seasons and they scored 14, 11, 15 goals.  The average is 13, but I discounted it one to 12 hoping for better health.

None of that matters cause it was all under Granto, who change his Philosophy last year, God knows why!

Ruff will play fast till a lead and will the play situational defense depending on opponents scoring ability.

Ruff will have Goaltending

Ruff will have a defense together awhile now with Clifton and Bo progressing future than last year. Also Samuelson is back.

All players have a Fresh start

Ruff will demand accountability, you won't hear from him, awe they are just young.

We won't lose as many close contests under Ruff. Have more OT's and 1 pter's

[Thorner]

14 hours ago, Thorny said:

I’m not close to being able to figure that out. For comparison, I do know that when you see those predictions online for new seasons, how often does our point projection for example look eerily similar to the one that came right before and we all say, “ah well that’s too low…you forgot to account fo…well, Boston is old!” and we end up within 2 points of the projection at years end. They know more about those prediction models than me 

I don’t know what I’d EXPECT but I bet you it’s closer to what we just did than you’d think, particularly when, looking in the macro and being honest, we’ve had a fairly uneventful offseason 

Ruff is an admitted wildcard 

it’s also hard to separate bias. I want to say i wouldn’t be surprised if we go boom and Quinn and Benson explode and we are second in the Atlantic and the goal total reflects