The Sabres Prospect Pool 2024 Edition

[Pimlach]

On 7/16/2024 at 8:36 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

My current Sabres prospects ranking.

1.       Benson (LW) – 19 – 30 pts in 71 NHL games. 2nd Year in the NHL next fall

2.       Levi (G) – 22 – .899 save % & 3.10 GAA in 23 NHL games.  2.42 & .927 in 26 AHL games. NHL in the fall.

3.       Helenius (C) – 18 – 36 pts in 51 Liiga games.  Will he come to NA in the fall?

4.       Kulich (C/W) – 20 – 45 pts in 57 AHL games including 27 goals.  3rd season in Rochester upcoming

5.       Östlund (C) – 22 – 23 pts in 38 SHL games. 1st full season in Rochester in the fall.

6.       Rosen (RW) – 21 - 50 pts in 67 AHL games. 3rd season in Rochester upcoming

7.       Novikov (LD) – 20 - 23 pts in 65 AHL games. 2nd season in Rochester upcoming

8.       Wahlberg (C) – 19 – 10 pts in 43 SHL games plus 4 pts in 9 AHL games.  1st full AHL season in the fall.

9.       Johnson (LD) – 22 - 7 pts in 41 NHL games, plus 9 in 27 AHL games. Can he earn a spot with the Sabres? Should he be higher on this list?

10.   Komarov (RD) – 20 - 69 pts in 60 Q games plus 15 in 19 playoffs games. AHL rookie season upcoming.

11.   Neuchev (LW) – 20 – 28 pts in 57 AHL games. 2nd season in Rochester upcoming.

12.   Strbak (RD) – 19 – 9 pts in 32 NCAA games. Remains at MSU.

13.   Ziemer (RW)  – 18 –94 pts in 88 games for the USNTDP – 12 pts in 7 WJ U-18 games – Captain. Starts U of Minn in the fall.

14.   Kleber (RD) – 18 – 26 pts in 56 USHL games. Starts Minn-Duluth in the fall.

15.   Poltapov (LW) – 21 – 13 pts in 56 KHL games.  One more KHL season before coming over?

16.   Kisakov (LW) – 21 – 13 pts in 32 AHL games. 3rd season in Rochester upcoming

17.   Tullio (RW)- 22  – 21 pts in 54 AHL games. 3rd AHL season upcoming, but new to the Amerks

18.   McCarthy (RD) - 19 - 5 pts in 38 NCAA games.  Remains at BU

19.   Richard (F) – 19 – 18 pts in 36 NCAA games. Remains at UConn

20.   Osburn (LD) – 17 – 23 pts in 60 USHL games. Starts Wisconsin in the fall.

21.   Leenders (G) – 18 - .909 save % & 3.12 GAA in 46 OHL games with a 24-17-4 record. Made Canada U-18 team

22.   Ratzlaff (G) – 19 - .905 save % & 3.33 GAA in 52 WHL games with a 21-26-2 record.

23.   Sardarian (RW) – 21 – 14 pts in 32 NCAA games. Entered the transfer portal.  

24.   Leinonen (G) - 21 - .844 save % & 4.14 GAA in 6 Liiga games. Moving to Sweden next season.

25.   Costantini (C ) - 22(aug) – 31 pts in 38 NCAA games.  Currently at W. Michigan.

Ryan Johnson is 3rd closest to playing in the NHL right now, right after (1) Benson and (2) Levi.  

I cannot say what his ceiling is, at least a 5-6 guy I would suspect,  but he is far more ready than the 6 players you have ranked above him.  

 

[Porous Five Hole]

7 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Ryan Johnson is 3rd closest to playing in the NHL right now, right after (1) Benson and (2) Levi.  

I cannot say what his ceiling is, at least a 5-6 guy I would suspect,  but he is far more ready than the 6 players you have ranked above him.  

 

He was not a top pair guy toward the end of the AHL season nor the playoff around last year.  Maybe he has a big summer, but I would not agree that he’s close to ascending above Gilbert and Bryson for the 7th D spot. 

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Porous Five Hole said:

He was not a top pair guy toward the end of the AHL season nor the playoff around last year.  Maybe he has a big summer, but I would not agree that he’s close to ascending above Gilbert and Bryson for the 7th D spot. 

He definitely had room to improve upon when facing odd man rushes.  The rest of his game was pretty decent (against AHL competition).

[PerreaultForever]

The thing that bugs me about that list is Helenius is listed above Kulich Rosen and Östlund. All first rounders but if development is actually happening they should all be closer than the new guy. But they're not and so that brings our drafting back into question. 

[LGR4GM]

Prospect ranking isn't about who's closest to the NHL imo. 

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Prospect ranking isn't about who's closest to the NHL imo. 

I'd agree with this.

Prospect ranking is who has the highest ceiling or will have a greater NHL-level impact.

Readiness/Closest to the NHL is an organization-wide depth chart.

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The thing that bugs me about that list is Helenius is listed above Kulich Rosen and Östlund. All first rounders but if development is actually happening they should all be closer than the new guy. But they're not and so that brings our drafting back into question. 

All drafts don’t have the same talent level or depth of talent.  Helenius and Rosen were both drafted 14th but Helenius is the more talented player.   Helenius’ upside is that of a 2nd line center.  He is the guy who will push Cozens to the wing where he belongs.   Many scouts have said Helenius maybe NHL ready now.  Kulich and Rosen are also close to NHL but neither has Helenius’ upside although Kulich is close, but two years older

Östlund, IMHO has 2/3 line potential, is discounted to Helenius because he’s older but wasn’t as affective in his Euro senior league as Helenius last season.  He was .6 pts per game in the SHL while Helenius, at only 18, was .7 pts per game in the Liiga and dominated in the playoffs.  A near Barkov level performance.  

Edited August 24 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

All drafts don’t have the same talent level or depth of talent.  Helenius and Rosen were both drafted 14th but Helenius is the more talented player.   Helenius’ upside is that of a 2nd line center.  He is the guy who will push Cozens to the wing where he belongs.   Many scouts have said Helenius maybe NHL ready now.  Kulich and Rosen are also close to NHL but neither has Helenius’ upside although Kulich is close, but two years older

Östlund, IMHO has 2/3 line potential, is discounted to Helenius because he’s older but wasn’t as affective in his Euro senior league as Helenius last season.  He was .6 pts per game in the SHL while Helenius, at only 18, was .7 pts per game in the Liiga and dominated in the playoffs.  A near Barkov level performance.  

Well it's obviously true that all drafts are not equal, but keep in mind that on paper they look one way and years down the road redrafts rarely look like original drafts. 

Half empty half full, by saying Helenius is better than Rosen you're also saying Rosen is worse than Helenius and that's not good drafting in terms of Rosen even if it's good drafting on Helenius. Rosen has had development time. He should be better and closer than he is. While not yet a "bust" I'd say he's trending in that direction. 

I think you're way off comparing Helenius to Barkov, but we shall see what he brings to NHL ice soon enough.  I don't put much stock in junior or Swedish league stats. 

[Pimlach]

6 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

I'd agree with this.

Prospect ranking is who has the highest ceiling or will have a greater NHL-level impact.

Readiness/Closest to the NHL is an organization-wide depth chart.

So its about hoping and guessing?  

[dudacek]

Isak Rosen was pick 14 in the 2021 draft.

11 players taken in that draft are NHL regulars, 3 of those players (Wyatt Johnson 23, Matthew Knies 57, and JJ Moser 60) were picked later than he was.

143 U21 prospects played at least a game in the AHL last year. Rosen ranked 3rd in points with 50, behind Logan Stankoven’s 57 and BradLambert’s 55.

When you add in the AHLers who are a year older than him, he still ranks 7th.

Im not a real fan of the way Rosen plays, but it would be a mistake to say he is trending toward a bust.

Edited August 25 by dudacek

[Thorner]

18 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The thing that bugs me about that list is Helenius is listed above Kulich Rosen and Östlund. All first rounders but if development is actually happening they should all be closer than the new guy. But they're not and so that brings our drafting back into question. 

Prospects are as subject to recency bias as much as anything, and more so than a lot 

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Isak Rosen was pick 14 in the 2021 draft.

11 players taken in that draft are NHL regulars, 3 of those players (Wyatt Johnson 23, Matthew Knies 57, and JJ Moser 60) were picked later than he was.

143 U21 prospects played at least a game in the AHL last year. Rosen ranked 3rd in points with 50, behind Logan Stankoven’s 57 and BradLambert’s 55.

When you add in the AHLers who are a year older than him, he still ranks 7th.

Im not a real fan of the way Rosen plays, but it’s would be a mistake to say he is trending toward a bust.

Once you drive that prospect off the draft lot, it loses half its value - we all know that 

[PerreaultForever]

The prospect pool rankings are amusing conversation but they ultimately mean nothing.

Maybe the stat I'd be interested in exists but I've never seen it. That would be ranking teams by how many of their prospects graduate into full time NHL players. 

[LGR4GM]

20 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

All drafts don’t have the same talent level or depth of talent.  Helenius and Rosen were both drafted 14th but Helenius is the more talented player.   Helenius’ upside is that of a 2nd line center.  He is the guy who will push Cozens to the wing where he belongs.   Many scouts have said Helenius maybe NHL ready now.  Kulich and Rosen are also close to NHL but neither has Helenius’ upside although Kulich is close, but two years older

Östlund, IMHO has 2/3 line potential, is discounted to Helenius because he’s older but wasn’t as affective in his Euro senior league as Helenius last season.  He was .6 pts per game in the SHL while Helenius, at only 18, was .7 pts per game in the Liiga and dominated in the playoffs.  A near Barkov level performance.  

I'd argue the SHL is better than Liiga

[SabreFinn]

42 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd argue the SHL is better than Liiga

SHL is definitely better than Liiga. The rinksize is bigger so they might need more time to adjust instead.

Östlund reminds me in some way of Teräväinen, who also played C as young, but then was moved to the wing.

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd argue the SHL is better than Liiga

Argue it against who?  Have never heard a single person claim otherwise.

Not sure how many foreigners are playing in the KHL since that war broke out, so it COULD be better than the KHL at present.  Would still expect it's a notch behind that, but could be persuaded otherwise.

The only other 2 leagues in the discussion about the 2nd best league in the world are the AHL and the Czech League, neither of which would get this kid's vote ahead of either of the other mentioned tours.  And Liiga IMHO would be a notch below them.

EDIT: Ah, see where it appears that GA is equating them.  Yeah, no, not so much.  Nevermind.

Edited August 25 by Taro T

[tom webster]

14 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The prospect pool rankings are amusing conversation but they ultimately mean nothing.

Maybe the stat I'd be interested in exists but I've never seen it. That would be ranking teams by how many of their prospects graduate into full time NHL players. 

I posted something a few years back showing that Buffalo had the most drafted players currently on NHL rosters. There are a lot of reasons for that. It is also hard to quantify it because all players aren’t equal. You’d have to delve further and maybe see who has the most top six forwards, top four defenseman and starting goalies.

[DarthEbriate]

18 hours ago, Pimlach said:

So its about hoping and guessing?  

Glibly, everything Sabres-related this past decade is about hoping. 

But rankings are fun. Objectively, you can compare them to their peers and past performers in their leagues, look at their physical tools and size, and areas to improve. Subjectively, you can throw in expectations vs. draft position and whether you like their play style, and where they might fit in a lineup in a few years. They're still a bunch of question marks, and it's up to their health, ability to adapt to new leagues/rink sizes/living abroad for European players, taking to new coaching, etc. 

[nfreeman]

16 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The prospect pool rankings are amusing conversation but they ultimately mean nothing.

This is kind of overstated IMHO. I agree that the prospect rankings don’t mean anything for this coming season, but they mean quite a bit in evaluating a team’s pool of assets, which is important. Having a strong pool of assets, for example, allows you to trade one of them for a bona fide #3 center who is extremely fast, only 24 and might even have a bit of upside, as the Sabres did this summer. 

[Flashsabre]

Draft spot goes out the window once the draft is over. Development is not linear for all players. It is such an imperfect science trying to project what a player will develop into.  
 

If you look at the OHL draft 16 year old kids are picked early and 2 years later many don’t get chosen to the NHL. There was just a story locally about a kid drafted 6th overall in the OHL who was passed over in the NHL draft and is going to Columbus’ camp.

I think OA the Sabres have done a pretty good job of drafting and developing lately. They have a lot of players that look like they have pro potential. The one argument I see that I don’t agree with is “this player was drafted at this spot and a few players behind him have already made the NHL” Every player’s development is different and it is about a career not a debut date.

I think Konsta is a good player but his timeline doesn’t negatively affect any of the other young players developing.  Kulich, Rosen, Östlund will develop at their own paces and contribute when they are ready.

 

Edited August 25 by Flashsabre

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, tom webster said:

I posted something a few years back showing that Buffalo had the most drafted players currently on NHL rosters. There are a lot of reasons for that. It is also hard to quantify it because all players aren’t equal. You’d have to delve further and maybe see who has the most top six forwards, top four defenseman and starting goalies.

I would say the key to success is in how many players you graduate each year. It shouldn't be hard for a team that sucks to land a decent first rounder. You can screw that up and not get the best guy and sometimes even crap out entirely when you go after some guys brother or something but in general high first rounders make the NHL in some capacity. 

Now how many guys you can develop and graduate in the later rounds really determines your long term fate. 

idk, I think there are numerous ways to build a team, but so far we haven't found a way for all these first rounders to come together. 

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, nfreeman said:

This is kind of overstated IMHO. I agree that the prospect rankings don’t mean anything for this coming season, but they mean quite a bit in evaluating a team’s pool of assets, which is important. Having a strong pool of assets, for example, allows you to trade one of them for a bona fide #3 center who is extremely fast, only 24 and might even have a bit of upside, as the Sabres did this summer. 

Sure, using your assets for other assets is always good so having assets is good but as a counter to this I have to present you with Boston (hiss, boo, I know I know) . Always ranked dead last or near dead last in prospect pool terms and yet last year they graduated 3 guys to the roster from that pool onto an already strong team. 

In my opinion it's not how many you have, it's developing the main ones you do have and filling your holes with them. Sabres roster wasn't very deep last year and isn't all that deep this year so if you aren't graduating at least a few of these prospects now, then you're failing. 

[nfreeman]

FWIW, Corey Pronman of the Athletic has ranked the Sabres' prospect pool at #11 in the NHL (down from #3 last year):  linkage

"Prospects" in these rankings include players who are 22 or younger on 9/15/24 -- so guys like Quinn and Power are included.

Pronman's ranking of the Sabres' prospects:

1.  Power

2. Quinn

3. JJP

4. Helenius

5. Benson

6. Kulich

7. Östlund

8. Wahlberg

9. Kleber

10. Levi

11. Strbak

12. Komarov

[bob_sauve28]

 

[LGR4GM]

Corey Pronman, size biases extraordinaire. Tij Iginla has no comment on his size in Corey's write up. The 6' 192lb winger gets a glowing review in fact but Konsta  "Helenius isn’t a big center, but he gives strong efforts off the puck, doesn’t shy from going to the net and has an edge to his game. Inside the NHL, the debate is whether he’s a good or a special 5-11 forward." Two size references for the kid who is 5'11" 190lbs... if that 1" and 2lbs really matters that much, call me Shirley and build me a temple. 

[LGR4GM]

Also, LMFAO. Zach Benson is better than Helenius right now, just stop Corey. 

"His size and lack of explosive speed are the knocks on him, which is why, despite all his talent and compete, some scouts still wonder about his long-term upside. I see a potential top-six forward but I’d stop short of calling him a future star." Yes, those scouts are named Snorey Cronman. 

Zach Benson has something really important that Corey is ignoring. He alludes to it when he talks briefly about Benson "mak(ing) a lot of high-end plays with the puck through defenders and to teammates" but doesn't grasp the underlying skill being displayed. Benson is a master manipulator that will only get better with time and strength. I have rarely watched a player who is so excellent and threading the triangle while getting a defender to move out of the lane he wants. On top of that Benson is elite at taking pucks from the wall to the center because of this manipulation ability. I love Zach Benson a lot and I really hope he takes a massive step up this year because he's a 5'10" ball of hate with the skills and brains to Marchand. 

Edited August 29 by LGR4GM