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Are the 24/25 Sabres a better team today then before the draft? Is this a playoff caliber roster?


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11 hours ago, dudacek said:

I don’t know that Kevyn Adams is finished.

I think it’s clear he has been trying to add a top 6 forward and he retains the space and the ammunition to do so should circumstances change. But the McLeod trade leaves him with 13 NHL forwards, 8 NHL defensemen and 3 NHL goalies; the roster may not be set, but it is full.

So I think we’ve reached a point where it’s OK to discuss the big picture of what’s been done.

I think the average NHL watcher is looking at Buffalo’s off-season with a big WTF?

Common perception runs something like this: this was a bad team in need of some serious upgrades to help its young talent over the top. Instead, they let one of their best goal-scorers walk for nothing and failed to replace him. They wasted a 2nd-round draft pick on a career minor-leaguer, overpaid for a fading free agent winger, signed a whole bunch of scrubs, then traded a recent top 10 pick who lit up the WHL for a bottom-six centre.

I think plenty of NHL fans are shaking their heads and saying “Buffalo gonna Buffalo” and I’m honestly surprised I haven’t seen more of that on here.

Sabrespace has no faith in Kevyn Adams, but I think our group is so thirsty for change, and for grit and fire that most are willfully overlooking the lack of actual fresh talent that was brought in.

I also think Sabrespace is smart enough to know what last year’s team needed most and see that there was a concerted effort made to address that. This forum and Kevyn Adams both understand the team can use another talented forward. But while the forum frets about Kevyn being unable to get anything done, I think Adams himself believes it’s about the only thing he didn’t get done.

I think there was a pronounced arrogance to Kevyn Adams’ offseason. He’s made a lot of bets that run counter to conventional wisdom:

  • There’s arrogance in saying Bo Byram is the missing piece on the blue line despite being another puck-moving lefty.
  • There’s arrogance in trading Casey Mittelstadt without having a replacement in place
  • There’s arrogance in saying Beck Malenstyn is worth a 2nd-round pick
  • There’s arrogance in deciding the team is better off by simply cutting Jeff Skinner
  • There’s arrogance in giving up on Matt Savoie so early
  • There’s arrogance in concluding Ryan McLeod is worth paying that kind of price
  • There’s arrogance in saying Thompson/Tuch/Cozens/Quinn/Peterka can be the offensive core of a contender.
  • And there’s arrogance in saying a hand-picked collection of the "right kind of 4th-liners" under the right kind of coach is all this team needs to get into the playoffs.

That kind of arrogance sounds to me like the recipe for disaster. But if I squint, I can also see a recipe in there for success. That recipe is entirely dependent on Adams being right in his evaluations of the players he’s picked.

Looking up and down this roster, how many players are you confident in saying you know exactly what they are going to bring next season?

For me, it’s not many.

And that means , in response to the thread question, I don't have a ***** clue.

Arrogance?  Not seeing it.

Like Marv Levy famously said "when you start listening to the fans, you get to sit with them."

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4 hours ago, Taro T said:

Arrogance?  Not seeing it.

Like Marv Levy famously said "when you start listening to the fans, you get to sit with them."

I don't see KA as being arrogant. My impression of him is that he is a very earnest and diligent person. Right from the start, he was candid on what his rebuild strategy was going to be. He stuck to it. My criticism of him is that he had a reasonable script/roadmap but was unwilling or unable to tweak it enough to keep the team competitive enough with the serious teams. Two years ago, the Sabres under Granato made a leap forward with a 92 pt season. He assumed that the team would continue with its upper projection. He was wrong. What undercut that progress was that there was a structural imbalance to the roster, mostly associated with the lower lines. It's apparent that this offseason was dedicated to correcting that issue. The hiring of Lindy and the moves made so far indicate that he is aware what he needed to be done. Is it enough? I'm not sure. 

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3 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Sabres were really that slow?   Eric Robinson was the Sabre going nowhere fast.  

So were many players on that list.  

My first reaction to that list was the same, but blazing speed does not necessarily equate with offensive success.  For every McDavid or McKinnon you have the McLeod brothers or Aube-Kubel.  Dahlin, Reinhart and Mitts aren’t blazing fast, but they seem to be effective.  
 

The more I look at the list, it makes you wonder, given we just acquired 3 guys from the top 20, if Adams printed it a few weeks ago and used it as his shopping list. 

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13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The more I look at the list, it makes you wonder, given we just acquired 3 guys from the top 20, if Adams printed it a few weeks ago and used it as his shopping list. 

Accept all the guys acquired are fast AND have good defensive metrics or ok ones and hit everything that moves. This is an oversimplified view to say this is all he looked at. Analytics played a role and I'm hopeful we finally have a legit 4th line. 

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9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Accept all the guys acquired are fast AND have good defensive metrics or ok ones and hit everything that moves. This is an oversimplified view to say this is all he looked at. Analytics played a role and I'm hopeful we finally have a legit 4th line. 

Yeah, the forwards as a group weren’t fast enough, didn’t hit enough and couldn’t check, so he went looking for players who could do all three.

Seems like identifying needs and trying to address them to me.

Edited by dudacek
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I'd also add that since the Lucic dirty hit, we've been begging the Sabres to seriously address toughness. Not just add some guy who punches ppl but multiple guys that can also play hockey. To question Adams for doing just that because he also made sure those guys were fast seems off. For the first time in years, Buffalo picked a set of characteristics and went out and got guys that matched that. Speed, hits, defensive micro stats, ability to play anywhere in the bottom 6. 

Adams pissed me off with his casual trash attitude last season. At least this offseason he's fixed the bottom 6 and given them a clear identity. 

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

Yeah, the forwards as a group weren’t fast enough, didn’t hit enough and couldn’t check, so he went looking for players who could do all three.

Seems like identifying needs and trying to address then to me.

Only took him 4 years. 

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1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I don't see KA as being arrogant. My impression of him is that he is a very earnest and diligent person. Right from the start, he was candid on what his rebuild strategy was going to be. He stuck to it. My criticism of him is that he had a reasonable script/roadmap but was unwilling or unable to tweak it enough to keep the team competitive enough with the serious teams. Two years ago, the Sabres under Granato made a leap forward with a 92 pt season. He assumed that the team would continue with its upper projection. He was wrong. What undercut that progress was that there was a structural imbalance to the roster, mostly associated with the lower lines. It's apparent that this offseason was dedicated to correcting that issue. The hiring of Lindy and the moves made so far indicate that he is aware what he needed to be done. Is it enough? I'm not sure. 

I agree with this.  And, what makes it frustrating to me (and what some might interpret as arrogance) is that had Adams acted to address the structural imbalance and forward depth last off-season, it would not have required him to disrupt or dramatically alter the script/roadmap.  If we had made the equivalent moves last off-season, we still would have been one of the league's youngest teams (younger actually) and kept one of the top 3-5 prospect pools, as remains the case on both points at the moment.  

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Accept all the guys acquired are fast AND have good defensive metrics or ok ones and hit everything that moves. This is an oversimplified view to say this is all he looked at. Analytics played a role and I'm hopeful we finally have a legit 4th line. 

It was a joke, dude.  Relax.  That said, you have to build a shopping list from somewhere.  He wanted to build team speed.  Here is a list of fast players.  You then do you do diligence from there, but you have to start somewhere and it's pretty clear that speed was central to that shopping list.

Maybe he just went to ChatGPT and asked "show me a list of NHL players who are fast, have high hit totals and good defensive metrics." 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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10 hours ago, Taro T said:

Arrogance?  Not seeing it.

Like Marv Levy famously said "when you start listening to the fans, you get to sit with them."

I too wouldn’t call it arrogance – more a determination to follow one’s plan, and a belief in that plan – kinda like trust the process.

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5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I too wouldn’t call it arrogance – more a determination to follow one’s plan, and a belief in that plan – kinda like trust the process.

I don't think we're too far apart here.

I don't find Kevin arrogant in terms of personality — quite the opposite actually — just in terms of his belief in his plan.

And I guess it's really only arrogance if he's wrong.

 

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13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don't think we're too far apart here.

I don't find Kevin arrogant in terms of personality — quite the opposite actually — just in terms of his belief in his plan.

And I guess it's really only arrogance if he's wrong.

 

The line between self-confidence and arrogance is thin.

Have we forgotten what he didn't do last off-season? Have we forgotten how he described the coach search and the end-of-season pressers? One should be excused for seeing Adams as arrogant based on those alone.

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19 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I too wouldn’t call it arrogance – more a determination to follow one’s plan, and a belief in that plan – kinda like trust the process.

The word stubbornness seems appropriate. There was inability to tweak and adjust from the declared script. I think Lindy has had a positive influence on him focusing on the present a little more without materially undercutting the future he was so enamored with. 

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23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don't think we're too far apart here.

I don't find Kevin arrogant in terms of personality — quite the opposite actually — just in terms of his belief in his plan.

And I guess it's really only arrogance if he's wrong.

 

I think arrogance and naivety can be mistaken for one another, much like shyness and aloofness.

I think that sometimes when a person is new to something and has early success, they can be fooled into thinking the success was because it was them and because they are smart and good at this thing, whatever it is.  They assume that what they do next will have the same level of success because they haven't really experienced the sort of failure that causes self-reflection.

I know that some people will say that Adams never had any success and so how could he think this way, but I wouldn't agree with that.  I think he started a rebuild and within 2 years had a team that was among the highest scoring in the league, was exciting and fun to watch , and that only missed by a point. In the eyes of most (not all) people, he had the team headed in the right direction. I think he was naive in thinking there was no need to consider any course correction and that he is a year late in getting to it. 

Edited by Archie Lee
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6 minutes ago, ... said:

The line between self-confidence and arrogance is thin.

Have we forgotten what he didn't do last off-season? Have we forgotten how he described the coach search and the end-of-season pressers? One should be excused for seeing Adams as arrogant based on those alone.

Maybe he was simply wrong in his judgments. He wasn't so arrogant this offseason to not to recognize that the course he was resolutely pursuing needed to be altered. I don't see him as being arrogant. I do however see him lacking creativity and flexibility to adjust to changing circumstances to be considered a top tier executive. He resides more in the pedestrian ranking as a GM.  Again, my opinion.   

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Posted (edited)

I don't think Adams is arrogant, but I do think he has a rigid adherence to his "plan" until he gets beaten over the head.  

He has hasn't learned that no plan survives first contact.   

For examples:

His failure to get legit veteran goaltending help for years.  This decision directly lead to the team missing the playoffs 2 years ago.

His failure to bring in help mid-season when injuries occurred or to bring in help when Quinn got hurt.  This likely helped cause us to miss the playoffs two years ago and was a direct contribution to the team failing last year.  

His failure to make the team tougher to play against for years.  Adding 1 or 2 bottom of the depth chart guys like Lyubushkin, Clifton and Greenway, doesn't solve the problem and none of these players ultimately made us harder to play against.  We needed an entire rethinking of the bottom 6 and it only happened this off-season two years too late.  

His reliance on bottom roster leadership.  For kids to grow, asking KO and Z to lead a group of kids was doomed to failure.  What winning experience did they bring to the table?  We needed bring in, and still do, winning veterans who can contribute higher on the roster, to teach these kids how to win.  Bringing both of these failed leaders back last year was huge error in judgement.  This team is crying out for someone like Teppo or Drury. Unfortunately it's probably to late this off-season to add such a player.

Even now we are still waiting for legit help in the top 6 and the top 2 D pairs.  This off-season again brought in 5 depth forwards (including Zucker and McLeod, and only McLeod has any important playoff experience.  The swap of Mitts for Byram made the team even younger and coupled with Byram's poor play once he arrived, raises serious questions as to whether or not he is a top 2 pair D.  At least he's been on a Cup winning team as a rookie.

The only conclusion is Adams is still on his develop or bust plan despite paying lip service to desperation to make the playoffs.  Some might call this arrogance, I call it incompetence.  

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
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Now back to the thread question,

Is this a playoff caliber roster?  Despite being general happy with the 5 new bottom of the depth chart forwards, I think the team is still a few pieces away from playoff contention.  We still need 1-2 better defensive defenseman.  None of our 6 starting D is a shutdown D.  Dahlin is the closest.  Mule has that pedigree, but can't stay healthy.  Clifton throws the body around, but as we saw early last year, he can be a train wreck in the D zone.  Joki was the easiest place to upgrade this off-season. but Adams choose to bring him back one more time.  

We also still need a top 6 forward.  As much as I like Benson's long-term upside, I'm not sure he is ready for a top 6 role and I'd like better scoring depth upfront.   After TNT, Tuch, JJP, Cozens and Quinn, the best of the rest of 13 forwards had 32 points (Zucker 14g 18a).  Benson and McLeod had 30 pts each, Greenway 28, Lafferty 24, Malenstyn 21, Krebs 17 and Kubel 16.  Other than Benson, I don't expect the other 6 to really exceed last year's totals.

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Florida, Boston, Toronto, Carolina, Rangers.  I think most think those 5 teams are a lock for 5 of the 8 spots.  Tampa finished 14 points ahead of the Sabres.  Did the Sabres do enough to pass them, PROBALY not. So there is 6.

2 spots left. Detroit finished 7 points ahead last year, they added. Washington, Pittsburgh, Philly, the Islanders also finished ahead of the Sabres. Can the Sabres finish ahead of all of them except for one?

Then you look behind them. I personally think New Jersey is up there with the top 5. They were ravaged by injuries last year, and they might have the best maturing core.  Ottawa is improving. Montreal also, but I think Montreal has farther to go.

It could be this year, it might take 96-98 points to make the playoffs.

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10 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Florida, Boston, Toronto, Carolina, Rangers.  I think most think those 5 teams are a lock for 5 of the 8 spots.  Tampa finished 14 points ahead of the Sabres.  Did the Sabres do enough to pass them, PROBALY not. So there is 6.

2 spots left. Detroit finished 7 points ahead last year, they added. Washington, Pittsburgh, Philly, the Islanders also finished ahead of the Sabres. Can the Sabres finish ahead of all of them except for one?

Then you look behind them. I personally think New Jersey is up there with the top 5. They were ravaged by injuries last year, and they might have the best maturing core.  Ottawa is improving. Montreal also, but I think Montreal has farther to go.

It could be this year, it might take 96-98 points to make the playoffs.

I wouldn't guarantee Boston a playoff spot. Their forward core is... boring? Lacking? Beatable?

https://www.eliteprospects.com/team/52/boston-bruins

 

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8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It was a joke, dude.  Relax.  That said, you have to build a shopping list from somewhere.  He wanted to build team speed.  Here is a list of fast players.  You then do you do diligence from there, but you have to start somewhere and it's pretty clear that speed was central to that shopping list.

Maybe he just went to ChatGPT and asked "show me a list of NHL players who are fast, have high hit totals and good defensive metrics." 

https://www.google.com/search?q=goodfellas+joe+pesci+you+find+me+funny&oq=goodfellas+joe+pesci+you+find+me+funny&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i160l4j33i299l3j33i671.17605j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:8e307876,vid:0d2LAs-WL_4,st:0

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current off-season grades from the Athletic.  I thought the synopsis of the "competition" would be an interesting read.  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5618498/2024/07/06/nhl-free-agency-grades-every-team-2024/

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Buffalo Sabres

B-

The Sabres made their fourth line faster and more physical during free agency and then traded Matt Savoie for Ryan McLeod, adding even more speed to their bottom six. This Buffalo team should be more defensively responsible and harder on the forecheck than last season’s. Adding McLeod, Jason Zucker, Beck Malenstyn, Nicolas Aube-Kubel and Sam Lafferty boosts Buffalo’s depth in a big way. But the question is whether general manager Kevyn Adams has done enough to improve their 23rd-ranked offense from last season. He’s hoping Lindy Ruff can coach some individuals to better seasons, while the increased team speed will lead to a better overall offensive team. — Matthew Fairburn

 

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Carolina Hurricanes

B

The Hurricanes were going to be hard-pressed to replace everything they were set to lose on July 1, and that proved to be true. Still, new general manager Eric Tulsky and the front office were able to pivot, first rounding out the defense with reasonable contracts for Sean Walker and Shayne Gostibehere. Depth additions at forward — William Carrier, Eric Robinson and Tyson Jost — should fill help fill out the bottom of the lineup and the AHL team in Chicago, and the signing of Jack Roslovic gives Carolina a right-handed player who can help with faceoffs and provide insurance should Jesper Fast not be able to play at the start of the season. — Cory Lavalette

 

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Detroit Red Wings

C

The Red Wings’ free agency was perfectly average — largely geared toward replacing departing players like Shayne Gostisbehere, David Perron and Robby Fabbri, with a potential upgrade in goal in Cam Talbot. They did well to keep all of their free-agent contracts to two years or fewer, maintaining long-term flexibility, and while there’s no truly open spot in the lineup, there is at least a path to playing time for their top prospects at some point this season. The issue is they didn’t really get clearly better in any area except goaltending. Vladimir Tarasenko should be better than any one departing forward, but Detroit is losing a lot of offense up front and may score less this season. They’ll certainly hope to defend a bit better as a team, but as of now, it looks like much of that charge will fall on the shoulders of young defenseman Simon Edvinsson, who looked good at the end of last season but may still experience some ups and downs. Taken all together, Detroit looks similarly positioned to last season, with the hope that better goaltending can make up for lost scoring. — Max Bultman

 

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New Jersey Devils

A-

General manager Tom Fitzgerald checked every box he could this summer. He traded for Jacob Markstrom to be the starting goalie without giving up the No. 10 pick in the draft, and he rounded out the defensive core with the additions of Brett Pesce and Brendan Dillon. Paul Cotter, Stefan Noesen and Tomas Tatar all should help the forward group, too. If the Devils don’t rebound after a difficult 2023-24 season, it won’t be for a lack of effort on Fitzgerald’s part. The only reason this is an A- and not an A is that the Devils didn’t get more in return for Alexander Holtz and Akira Schmid than Cotter and a 2025 third-round pick. Holtz was the No. 7 pick in the 2020 draft, so a mid-round draft pick and a bottom-six wing isn’t a thrilling return, even if Cotter should help the roster. — Peter Baugh

 

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New York Islanders

B

Anthony Duclair was a shrewd signing at four years at $3.5 million, and bringing back veteran Mike Reilly for $1.25 million was also a targeted success. The Islanders had barely any cap space; if you believe the bulk of this team can still compete with the best in the East, then this was solid work. If not, then they didn’t do nearly enough. — Arthur Staple

 

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Ottawa Senators

B+

General manager Steve Staios had a pretty long checklist for this offseason, and a week into free agency, he’s done a pretty good job achieving those tasks. He’s landed a No. 1 goaltender (Linus Ullmark), picked up a top-four defenseman (Nick Jensen) and added some veteran depth to his forward group (David Perron and Michael Amadio). Staios also cleared his logjam on the left side of his blue line by cutting ties with Jakob Chychrun and Erik Brannstrom. And getting out from underneath Joonas Korpisalo’s contract while incurring minimal cost on retention was a tidy piece of business. Getting Shane Pinto signed to a two-year contract was a major priority too, though a longer term probably would have been nicer for both parties. Losing Mathieu Joseph for nothing — while attaching a third-round pick — was a bitter pill to swallow, but it was the cost of doing business. There are still a couple of questions on the third pairing, but all things considered, this was a fairly good start to Staios’ tenure. — Ian Mendes

 

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Philadelphia Flyers

C

Not much to grade here. General manager Daniel Briere said the Flyers wouldn’t be active in free agency, and he’s been true to his word, at least so far. There were just two notable moves: the buyout of Cam Atkinson, necessary for salary-cap reasons, and the re-signing of Erik Johnson, who will play the role of respected veteran in the room to guide the young players as the sixth or seventh defenseman. Their biggest move had nothing to do with free agency, as rookie Matvei Michkov has arrived earlier than expected and will be someone to keep an eye on in the Calder Trophy race. — Kevin Kurz

 

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Pittsburgh Penguins

C

General manager Kyle Dubas avoided the mistakes of last offseason, when he was keen to hand out or acquire veterans at big term. He always has enough problematic contacts. But he didn’t noticeably make the Penguins better in the short term — and has yet to get Sidney Crosby’s signature on a new contract. The latter will presumably happen, but until it does, it’s an offseason-defining negative. — Rob Rossi

 

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Tampa Bay Lightning

B

Losing Steven Stamkos is an obvious blow, considering what he means to the franchise. But the reality is that Jake Guentzel is an elite winger who can put up 40-plus goals and help drive play on the ice. He should be able to replace Stamkos’ on-ice contributions for years to come with their age gap in mind. The Victor Hedman extension was a good bit of business, as was re-acquiring Ryan McDonagh, who was missed. J.J. Moser could be a solid depth add, but making Mikhail Sergachev a cap casualty is another tough blow to the blue line. — Shayna Goldman

 

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Washington Capitals

A-

The only deduction here is for Pierre-Luc Dubois’ contract; seven years is just too much time. Overall, though, Brian MacLellan did about as well as anyone could reasonably expect — and as well as any general manager in the league. He reeled in a second-line center (Dubois), two top-four defensemen (Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy), a middle-six winger (Andrew Mangiapane) and a solid 1A goalie (Logan Thompson). Now, the Caps look like an actual playoff team. Mission accomplished. — Sean Gentille

 

 

 

I skipped Fla, Bos, Tor and the NYR because I think they are playoff teams.  I also skipped Mon and the CBJ because I don't think they'll be competitive.  These 9 teams and the Sabres are the ones likely competing for the 4 remaining playoff spots.  IMHO Car and TB are candidates to take a step back.  I also think Detroit and Pitt have not improved so far this off-season.  Washington looks improved on paper as does Ottawa.

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3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This off-season again brought in 5 depth forwards (including Zucker and McLeod, none of which has any deep Cup run experience.  The swap of Mitts for Byram made the team even younger and coupled with Byram's poor play once he arrived, raises serious questions as to whether or not he is a top 2 pair D.  At least he's been on a Cup winning team as a rookie.

A couple notes: McLeod just played in the Final, and Aube-Kubel and Byram have won the Cup. It would appear the last two seasons GMKA has had playoff experience as a requisite in his acquisitions. Now, it hasn't mattered a hill of beans just yet.

Games of playoff experience prior to this season:

Out: Lyubushkin (7 pre-BUF), Okposo (24 pre-BUF), Jost 46, Stillman 3, Skinner, Girgs, VO. Could also add Clague/Bryson, though they're #8/9 on the depth chart and still around.  Out total = 80 games

In: E.Johnson (Cup win, 55 -- was on all those bad COL teams pre-Makar); Clifton (46, though no deep runs since 2019); Zucker (52 though pretty much all 1st round exits); Lafferty (21); Malenstyn (4); Aube-Kubel (Cup, 30); McLeod (56, 24 this year alone); Byram (Cup, 27). In total = 291 games and 3 Cups.

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13 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

A couple notes: McLeod just played in the Final, and Aube-Kubel and Byram have won the Cup. It would appear the last two seasons GMKA has had playoff experience as a requisite in his acquisitions. Now, it hasn't mattered a hill of beans just yet.

Games of playoff experience prior to this season:

Out: Lyubushkin (7 pre-BUF), Okposo (24 pre-BUF), Jost 46, Stillman 3, Skinner, Girgs, VO. Could also add Clague/Bryson, though they're #8/9 on the depth chart and still around.  Out total = 80 games

In: E.Johnson (Cup win, 55 -- was on all those bad COL teams pre-Makar); Clifton (46, though no deep runs since 2019); Zucker (52 though pretty much all 1st round exits); Lafferty (21); Malenstyn (4); Aube-Kubel (Cup, 30); McLeod (56, 24 this year alone); Byram (Cup, 27). In total = 291 games and 3 Cups.

I fixed McLeod, but Johnson is in no longer a Sabres.  He needs to be in the out column and the current Sabres with a Cup in Byram and he was a rookie that season; not exactly part of the leadership core.

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