Free Agent Frenzy 2024

[inkman]

13 minutes ago, Mr. Allen said:

Oh. Piss on him then.  I don’t want a brat like that. 

To be fair, is there a worse franchise in the league?

[kas23]

1 hour ago, inkman said:

To be fair, is there a worse franchise in the league?

Probably not, but it’s a bit disingenuous to say you only want to play in the NHL, but then you have other hidden stipulations. Just say you want to pick where you want to play. At least Vesey said that. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, kas23 said:

Probably not, but it’s a bit disingenuous to say you only want to play in the NHL, but then you have other hidden stipulations. Just say you want to pick where you want to play. At least Vesey said that. 

To be fair, I’ve not seen it reported by credible sources that he had an issue with Buffalo.

His issue was entirely that he be given an NHL spot that was his to lose. Winnipeg wasn’t offering that, neither was Buffalo, and I suspect many other franchises won’t either.

[kas23]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

To be fair, I’ve not seen it reported by credible sources that he had an issue with Buffalo.

His issue was entirely that he be given an NHL spot that was his to lose. Winnipeg wasn’t offering that, neither was Buffalo, and I suspect many other franchises won’t either.

Fair enough. It’s hard to get out of the mentality that we aren’t guaranteeing NHL spots to lose on this team. It seems like it’s been that way for a while. 

[inkman]

9 hours ago, Mr. Allen said:

Oh. Piss on him then.  I don’t want a brat like that. 

Have you been watching The Boys.  
 

[Mr. Allen]

9 hours ago, inkman said:

Have you been watching The Boys.  
 

No.  lol

[Ducky]

On 7/8/2024 at 6:14 PM, Scottysabres said:

Wasn't it reported that we did inquire but he refused to sign an extension? Or was that just fans thinking that's what happened? @Brawndo, @Thorny.

"Mcintyre (Winnipeg Free Press reporter) was just on wst saying he heard that it's not just the jets having problems with mcgroarty some of the potential suitors as well over his demands, he went on to say he heard that they were close to a trade on the weekend and the deal didn't happen because of said reason."

 

Sounds a bit entitled to me.

If I'm Chevy, he plays for two more years in university and Winnipeg gets a 2nd round pick around 45 or 46 I think.

He goes back into the draft in 2026. See how he likes that and it sends a message to other college players that want to dictate where they play. He's a 14th pick, not a number one overall.

[matter2003]

Out of all the free agents signed every year to big dollar contracts, how many of them work out well for the team that signed them in terms of their play justifying their contract size? 

Maybe 15%?  Everyone loves talking about all the p[layers who worked out but nobody talks about the 85% who never came close to justifying what the team paid them. Remember that next time you get mad about the Sabres "not doing more". 

For the most part, the worst cap dollars you will ever spend are the ones you spend in free agency and that has been born out over decades of analytics on the topic.

This is just a study from 2019-2020 that highlights how bad free agency is at providing what you actually want ion terms of dollars spent.

• Teams paid for 844 wins at free agency to players expected to generate 593 wins, but who actually delivered just 217 wins - just 25.7% of what they paid for.
• More than half of all free agent contracts are an overpayment on day 1
• In their first contract year, free agents deliver only about 28% of the value they are paid for.
• 2/3rds of players given 6 or 7 year contracts don't finish the contracts due to things like injury
• "The worst deals aren’t worth it almost 90 percent of the time and even the best deals don’t live up to expectations even half the time."

Edited July 10 by matter2003

[shrader]

2 hours ago, Ducky said:

"Mcintyre (Winnipeg Free Press reporter) was just on wst saying he heard that it's not just the jets having problems with mcgroarty some of the potential suitors as well over his demands, he went on to say he heard that they were close to a trade on the weekend and the deal didn't happen because of said reason."

 

Sounds a bit entitled to me.

If I'm Chevy, he plays for two more years in university and Winnipeg gets a 2nd round pick around 45 or 46 I think.

He goes back into the draft in 2026. See how he likes that and it sends a message to other college players that want to dictate where they play. He's a 14th pick, not a number one overall.

He would be a free agent at that point, not back in the draft. But whatever, it’s the same to Winnipeg either way. 
 

[#freejame]

2 hours ago, Ducky said:

"Mcintyre (Winnipeg Free Press reporter) was just on wst saying he heard that it's not just the jets having problems with mcgroarty some of the potential suitors as well over his demands, he went on to say he heard that they were close to a trade on the weekend and the deal didn't happen because of said reason."

 

Sounds a bit entitled to me.

If I'm Chevy, he plays for two more years in university and Winnipeg gets a 2nd round pick around 45 or 46 I think.

He goes back into the draft in 2026. See how he likes that and it sends a message to other college players that want to dictate where they play. He's a 14th pick, not a number one overall.

He’ll be a free agent once he’s finished with school and will be highly sought after or essentially signed with a team a la Adam Fox (also a holdout and not a #1). 

I will never have any issue with someone wanting to go to college for four years and then take control over their career. Seems like the smarter option for the overwhelming majority of prospects and a trend that’s going to continue to grow as more Canadians take the NCAA route. 

[Mr. Allen]

2 hours ago, Ducky said:

"Mcintyre (Winnipeg Free Press reporter) was just on wst saying he heard that it's not just the jets having problems with mcgroarty some of the potential suitors as well over his demands, he went on to say he heard that they were close to a trade on the weekend and the deal didn't happen because of said reason."

 

Sounds a bit entitled to me.

If I'm Chevy, he plays for two more years in university and Winnipeg gets a 2nd round pick around 45 or 46 I think.

He goes back into the draft in 2026. See how he likes that and it sends a message to other college players that want to dictate where they play. He's a 14th pick, not a number one overall.

Seems like this brat wants to pick the exact team he goes to. 

12 minutes ago, #freejame said:

He’ll be a free agent once he’s finished with school and will be highly sought after or essentially signed with a team a la Adam Fox (also a holdout and not a #1). 

I will never have any issue with someone wanting to go to college for four years and then take control over their career. Seems like the smarter option for the overwhelming majority of prospects and a trend that’s going to continue to grow as more Canadians take the NCAA route. 

Then why even have a draft?  Just let every player pick whatever team they want to sign with. 
Sabres would do great with that route…. 

[French Collection]

3 hours ago, Ducky said:

"Mcintyre (Winnipeg Free Press reporter) was just on wst saying he heard that it's not just the jets having problems with mcgroarty some of the potential suitors as well over his demands, he went on to say he heard that they were close to a trade on the weekend and the deal didn't happen because of said reason."

 

Sounds a bit entitled to me.

If I'm Chevy, he plays for two more years in university and Winnipeg gets a 2nd round pick around 45 or 46 I think.

He goes back into the draft in 2026. See how he likes that and it sends a message to other college players that want to dictate where they play. He's a 14th pick, not a number one overall.

He sounds like an entitled kid, but that could be the Jets’ spin adding some spice to the mix.

There are rules to get him to UFA but he will have to forego 2 years of pro money and stay in school. I’m not sure if he still has to sign an ELC at the end of this or if he’s eligible for more money. I think it is an ELC but it does need to be 3 years.

Anyway, I know Fox did this too and they are allowed but all I can say is suck it up princess.

[#freejame]

Choosing between playing college hockey in Michigan and AHL hockey in Manitoba seems like an easy decision to me. If you can’t convince a prospect there’s room for them in the organization maybe the organization is the problem. 

I guess I don’t understand the difference between entitlement and operating in one’s best interest. At the end of the day, no matter how much they try to hid it, the NHL and their teams are big business who already restrict wages and opportunities.  

[Pimlach]

53 minutes ago, #freejame said:

He’ll be a free agent once he’s finished with school and will be highly sought after or essentially signed with a team a la Adam Fox (also a holdout and not a #1). 

I will never have any issue with someone wanting to go to college for four years and then take control over their career. Seems like the smarter option for the overwhelming majority of prospects and a trend that’s going to continue to grow as more Canadians take the NCAA route. 

The opposite of the NFL, which means the wrong way to do it.  

[#freejame]

1 minute ago, Pimlach said:

The opposite of the NFL, which means the wrong way to do it.  

I’m a little confused by this so just to clarify are you saying the draft should be pushed back from 18 to how the NFL does it?

[shrader]

53 minutes ago, Mr. Allen said:

Seems like this brat wants to pick the exact team he goes to. 

Then why even have a draft?  Just let every player pick whatever team they want to sign with. 
Sabres would do great with that route…. 

Every player can do this if they really want. The downside is that they have to wait 4 years and forego a lot of money to do so. It also delays that second contract where the price tag is no longer limited. It will be different for everyone, but i don’t think it is worth it for the first round guys. 

[Taro T]

22 minutes ago, shrader said:

Every player can do this if they really want. The downside is that they have to wait 4 years and forego a lot of money to do so. It also delays that second contract where the price tag is no longer limited. It will be different for everyone, but i don’t think it is worth it for the first round guys. 

It's not worth it for the vast majority of players which is why it's such a big deal each time the handful of guys going that route actually does so.

[shrader]

14 minutes ago, Taro T said:

It's not worth it for the vast majority of players which is why it's such a big deal each time the handful of guys going that route actually does so.

Yeah, it's those mid to late round college guys who have no realistic chance of turning pro early who are typically going to be the ones to go that route.  I'm always a bit surprised when a guy like Ryan Johnson goes down to the wire but then signs before free agency.  We don't know what goes on behind the scenes, but when you're that close, I would think you'd want to at least see your options.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

I’m a little confused by this so just to clarify are you saying the draft should be pushed back from 18 to how the NFL does it?

The NFL drafts from college and they can own the rights to the player until that player reaches UFA status as a pro.  The NHL can draft an 18 year old player and if that player goes to the NCAA they can lose the rights to him after so many years (3 or 4 or something like that).   

My point is that teams can lose the rights to a player because he stayed in the NCAA, which I view as unfair to the team that drafted him at 18.  

[Taro T]

37 minutes ago, shrader said:

Yeah, it's those mid to late round college guys who have no realistic chance of turning pro early who are typically going to be the ones to go that route.  I'm always a bit surprised when a guy like Ryan Johnson goes down to the wire but then signs before free agency.  We don't know what goes on behind the scenes, but when you're that close, I would think you'd want to at least see your options.

True.   And it is mildly surprising it doesn't happen more often.

But playing devil's advocate, the flip side of a Johnson situation is, the GM club is pretty insular (only having 32 members) and each one knows how much time and effort another GM's staff put into these kids for literally years only to see the kid decide to walk away at the last moment.  Pretty sure those guys talk to each other and sure an Adam Fox is going to have his talent outweigh a lot of "disloyalty" (for lack of a better word; really not the ideal word, but close enough for an internet post) that perhaps a lesser player won't get the same leeway with.  And GMs are going to wonder, if the kid bailed on them, how long is it going to take til he goes and bails on us.  

Apples to kumquats, but Tim Kennedy's career hit the skids when he was in about the best situation he could possibly be but got convinced to file for arbitration anyhow.  If you aren't legitimately special, beware of asking to be treated as if you are.  Because instead of viewing you as being "special," the members of that insular club might view you as SPECIAL and stay away at all costs.

Plus Johnson's dad works in the NHL.  Pretty sure he was giving his kid some advice on the LT implications of pulling a Vesey.  Adams said all along he wasn't worried that Johnson would walk away.  He might've had some additional info that we weren't privy to and actually did know he'd sign.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

The NFL drafts from college and they can own the rights to the player until that player reaches UFA status as a pro.  The NHL can draft an 18 year old player and if that player goes to the NCAA they can lose the rights to him after so many years (3 or 4 or something like that).   

My point is that teams can lose the rights to a player because he stayed in the NCAA, which I view as unfair to the team that drafted him at 18.  

Actually, because a player played in the NCAA, a team gets his rights for twice as long as if he'd gone to Juniors.  Kids that play in the CHL and aren't signed within 2 years go back into the draft.  Doesn't happen often, but it does happen.

That's in place, because kids in Juniors can have signed pro contracts.  It's going to change soon, but NCAA players weren't allowed to play college hockey if they had been "professionals."  So, teams can sign guys right after the draft or anytime within those 1st 2 years if he went Junior, but couldn't sign a college kid until he leaves.  Without that rule in place, nobody would have ever signed drafted an 18 or 19 yo college kid unless he was really special like an Eichel because they'd all be back in the draft before they'd played their Junior Year of college hockey.

Will be interesting to see how that changes with the next CBA.

Edited July 10 by Taro T
D'oh!

[ska-T Palmtown]

8 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Actually, because a player played in the NCAA, a team gets his rights for twice as long as if he'd gone to Juniors.  Kids that play in the CHL and aren't signed within 2 years go back into the draft.  Doesn't happen often, but it does happen.

That's in place, because kids in Juniors can have signed pro contracts.  It's going to change soon, but NCAA players weren't allowed to play college hockey if they had been "professionals."  So, teams can sign guys right after the draft or anytime within those 1st 2 years if he went Junior, but couldn't sign a college kid until he leaves.  Without that rule in place, nobody would have ever signed an 18 or 19 yo college kid unless he was really special like an Eichel because they'd all be back in the draft before they'd played their Junior Year of college hockey.

Will be interesting to see how that changes with the next CBA.

It really is an interesting and unique situation for the NHL because the Junior Leagues are also businesses trying to make money and it is really the only sport where there is viable competition to the NCAA for athletes. I am not sure what leverage the NCAA has, but I am sure they would be opposed to anything that would dilute some of the attraction power they are gaining. I don't know that too many NCAA hockey players get significant NIL money, but the potential is there.

Baseball is sorta the closest comparison due to young drafting age and a vast minor league network. The difference is that if the draftee does not make it into the minor leagues, their only viable option is really NCAA.

Basketball can draft from HS (or have they changed since Lebron?) - but if they don't sign with team, I think they are free to sign wherever, so there is strong incentive for the pro team to only select HS players they think can jump right away? I dunno, shooty hoops is not really my thing.

Similarly, if a college football player declares for the NFL draft, they are forfeiting NCAA eligibility and there are restrictions on when they can declare. And teams would be wary of drafting younger players due to the substantial monetary investments.

Point is - the structure of the hockey world in North America, and worldwide, really complicate any "fair" set of rules and defies comparison to any other North American sport.

*editors note - Ska-T has only a surface knowledge level of anything discussed above. So little, in fact, that it might be hard to even call him a novice. And European football? Ha, that kid has no clue about how any of that works ....

[shrader]

23 minutes ago, Taro T said:

True.   And it is mildly surprising it doesn't happen more often.

But playing devil's advocate, the flip side of a Johnson situation is, the GM club is pretty insular (only having 32 members) and each one knows how much time and effort another GM's staff put into these kids for literally years only to see the kid decide to walk away at the last moment.  Pretty sure those guys talk to each other and sure an Adam Fox is going to have his talent outweigh a lot of "disloyalty" (for lack of a better word; really not the ideal word, but close enough for an internet post) that perhaps a lesser player won't get the same leeway with.  And GMs are going to wonder, if the kid bailed on them, how long is it going to take til he goes and bails on us.  

Apples to kumquats, but Tim Kennedy's career hit the skids when he was in about the best situation he could possibly be but got convinced to file for arbitration anyhow.  If you aren't legitimately special, beware of asking to be treated as if you are.  Because instead of viewing you as being "special," the members of that insular club might view you as SPECIAL and stay away at all costs.

Plus Johnson's dad works in the NHL.  Pretty sure he was giving his kid some advice on the LT implications of pulling a Vesey.  Adams said all along he wasn't worried that Johnson would walk away.  He might've had some additional info that we weren't privy to and actually did know he'd sign.

For what it's worth, Adam Fox did not go to free agency.  He was traded twice, but he did sign with the Rangers in May.  His situation does make me wonder about the whole loyalty thing though.  He was traded a couple times.  Yes, that was due to not wanting to play in Calgary/Carolina, but trades really change that whole loyalty discussion.

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Actually, because a player played in the NCAA, a team gets his rights for twice as long as if he'd gone to Juniors.  Kids that play in the CHL and aren't signed within 2 years go back into the draft.  Doesn't happen often, but it does happen.

That's in place, because kids in Juniors can have signed pro contracts.  It's going to change soon, but NCAA players weren't allowed to play college hockey if they had been "professionals."  So, teams can sign guys right after the draft or anytime within those 1st 2 years if he went Junior, but couldn't sign a college kid until he leaves.  Without that rule in place, nobody would have ever signed an 18 or 19 yo college kid unless he was really special like an Eichel because they'd all be back in the draft before they'd played their Junior Year of college hockey.

Will be interesting to see how that changes with the next CBA.

But do they?  If they sign the player after Year 2 from Junior, you could have another 3 years on an ELC where you maintain the rights, and really not much risk to losing the prospect as they can play in the AHL at a salary of about $70k.  It's just a roster spot, and most teams are not up against it with what,  50 to offer?    The total cost investment by the parent club might be  $210K over 5 years?  But the NCAA  route, while costing the club nothing, its really 3 years, b/c you really cannot count the 4th year as if a player finishes school, they often just wait the extra months in summer to become a UFA.  

 

I like the MLB approach which was mentioned above.  If you want to pursue an NCAA career, go for it, but in 4 years, you have to be drafted again to play. You do not get to choose where you want to play. 

[Taro T]

16 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

But do they?  If they sign the player after Year 2 from Junior, you could have another 3 years on an ELC where you maintain the rights, and really not much risk to losing the prospect as they can play in the AHL at a salary of about $70k.  It's just a roster spot, and most teams are not up against it with what,  50 to offer?    The total cost investment by the parent club might be  $210K over 5 years?  But the NCAA  route, while costing the club nothing, its really 3 years, b/c you really cannot count the 4th year as if a player finishes school, they often just wait the extra months in summer to become a UFA.  

 

I like the MLB approach which was mentioned above.  If you want to pursue an NCAA career, go for it, but in 4 years, you have to be drafted again to play. You do not get to choose where you want to play. 

Yes, if a player goes to the NCAA, you have 4 years of retaining his rights prior to signing him.  If he comes through the CHL, you have 2 years of retaining his rights prior to signing him.  2*2 = 4.  The discussion was about how teams lose the rights to an NCAA player after 4 years if he hasn't signed an ELC by then.  Well, a team loses the rights to a CHL player after only 2 years if he hasn't signed an ELC by then.  No, that CHL player doesn't become an UFA after 2 years; he becomes an overager in the draft; but yes, the team loses that player after the 2 years and must redraft him if they want to have exclusive negotiating rights with him for the full 4 years.

And that 4th year was available to the team to get the player signed.  

You could make the argument that a team doesn't get the full 2 years of a CHL player as he might have decided as soon as his 2nd season is done that he wants nothing to do with that NHL team even though the team has the rights for another month or so.

Edited July 10 by Taro T
Too slow on the additional comments