Free Agent Frenzy 2024

[LGR4GM]

48 minutes ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

Benson, Savoie, Östlund, Kulich, Rosen … even Quinn & Peterka are smallish and remain under 200 lbs. Casey remains under 200 and Cozens so far - depending on what is reported by various sources. Not one of those are physical forwards. That’s nine top picks that do not fit what I’m describing. And they just paid $5 million for a 5’11, 192 lb forward who is not some big intimidator  

In the big picture, it’s accurate. 

Later round talent is still in the minors and still questionable whether they will pan out. Helenius remains to be seen but expecting a 5’11 190 pound player to get to 200 and to be a physical intimidator or defensively shut down handle a big scoring center is expecting an exception. They also passed on arguably the most physical two way forward available who could be the best physical defensive forward in the draft and the Wings snatched him up. 

It’s not arguing a few of those players are not talented but they don’t need more of them. 

 

The average height of an NHL forward is 6'1" and the average weight is 198 I think. I think it is entirely probably that Helenius can hand a big a scoring winger when he is 22yrs old entering his prime, why shouldn't he? Benson routinely shut down bigger forwards than him at 5'10" 180lbs as an 18yr old. 

The one thing you seem to be forgetting is speed. The NHL plays fast and most guys hit the balance of size and speed around 195-205lbs. McDavid is 194, Barkov is 214, Mackinnon 201, Bergeron 196, etc... there is a reason for that. There has to be a balance between your weight and your speed/agility. It is why NHL players often talk about losing weight to be faster or more nimble. It is all a balance but Sabrespace has made some arbitrary decision that anyone under 200lbs is too small and anyone under 6' is too small and it is just a fake cutoff. 

The Sabres issue is not that they don't have a forward core of 215lb 6'3" guys, it is that they don't have a forward core that wins puck battles and forechecks hard. They play soft not because of size but because of character, they have a character issue that hopefully coaching helps correct.

[LTS]

1 hour ago, xzy89c1 said:

bunch of ifs right. If we do nothing else we need a lot of players to take steps forward. Cozens needs to be a good center. thompsons deficiencies as a center were partially due to skinner and he is better at the position than he has shown. Quinn needs a big year etc..

100%, but that's how it works with anything that is "developing".  Right now the Sabres have players who are still developing. Generally that's the case until about 25 or 26 these days.

The NHL is really broken down into 5 groups, and the predictability of performance is based on the mix of those 5 groups.

18-22 - super raw, hard to tell what will happen and generally should not comprise a good portion of the roster
22-25 - developing, you get a sense of what they can be, and you hope they reach that potential
26-29 - definitely know what a player has and will bring to the table
30-33 - you know the player, now the question is will they begin to drop off (the reverse of 22-25)
34+ - the reverse of 18-22.  Will they drop-off

So, if you look at a team's roster construction, the more the roster fits into each of those areas the easier it becomes to predict the capabilities of the team.

The Sabres have fielded a young roster for a few years, not ideal. This year they project:

18-22 - 3 players (Benson, Power, Levi)
22-25 - 8 players (Cozens, Quinn, JJP, Krebs, Dahlin, Byram, Jokiharju, UPL)
26-29 - 9 players (Thompson, Tuch, Greenway, Lafferty, NAK, Malenstyn, Clifton, Gilbert, Bryson) - 4 of which were brought onto the roster in the last 2 days
30-33 - 1 player (Zucker)
34+ - 1 player (Reimer)

The core of the team is still in the harder to predict stage and that leads to the uncertainty.  if the 22-25 group goes off then the Sabres will be fine.  If not, then not so much.  Adams did add to the team in key areas so that more predictable players are in the bottom 6. This is also why people want an established 3C.. so think 26+... to improve predictability of what this team can do.

It's certainly not a hard and fast rule as superstar 18 year olds change things as well as work horses playing into their late 30's.  The Sabres roster construction leads to a lot of ifs... it's just how it is.

Edited July 2 by LTS

[FrenchConnection44]

34 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The average height of an NHL forward is 6'1" and the average weight is 198 I think. I think it is entirely probably that Helenius can hand a big a scoring winger when he is 22yrs old entering his prime, why shouldn't he? Benson routinely shut down bigger forwards than him at 5'10" 180lbs as an 18yr old. 

The one thing you seem to be forgetting is speed. The NHL plays fast and most guys hit the balance of size and speed around 195-205lbs. McDavid is 194, Barkov is 214, Mackinnon 201, Bergeron 196, etc... there is a reason for that. There has to be a balance between your weight and your speed/agility. It is why NHL players often talk about losing weight to be faster or more nimble. It is all a balance but Sabrespace has made some arbitrary decision that anyone under 200lbs is too small and anyone under 6' is too small and it is just a fake cutoff. 

The Sabres issue is not that they don't have a forward core of 215lb 6'3" guys, it is that they don't have a forward core that wins puck battles and forechecks hard. They play soft not because of size but because of character, they have a character issue that hopefully coaching helps correct.

I’m not pushing the 200 lb threshold as the only measure. But I don’t think it’s coaching that will make this roster a physically tough 2-way team. These players don’t play physical because they are finesse types. Even Tage and Power are that. Yes they need speed but Barkov at 214 is not slow. He's the best, of course, and if Helenius turns out to be a physical beast of a player - great. But they don’t have a single one on the team right now. I don’t think coaching will turn Savoie or Rosen or Peterka, et al, into physical two way players (though coaching is a general problem). And how long before Helenius is on the team? It’s speculation at this point. 
 

At the same time I would argue from a physical standpoint that all these guys could add 10 pounds of muscle, and still be fast, in fact, perhaps be even faster than they are. While there is a balance, players can be in great shape, add another 10 pounds to their body, and be just as fast if not faster if the weight is good weight. I have little doubt that Cozens could go 205, possibly 210, and be just as fast. Power could go 225 and be even faster. Benson could add muscle as well and be faster. And needs to if he’s to be a real factor, given the kind of game he plays. 

But my point is more about the kind of game and physical toughness a player brings to the ice. Nevertheless, a guy who is 6’2, 215 and fast and physical will generally wreak more havoc as a defensive forward than one who is 5’10, 185-190. Let alone 175-180. I appreciate Cozens willingness in him, but it’s just not his game. The only guy we really had in the last couple of years who had a modicum of that mentality was Krebs. But he just wasn’t big enough nor good enough. There is not one physically intimidating player on this team that opponents would say, “that guy is a pain to play against bec he will grind you into the ice.” And it doesn’t have to be a fighter.

Edited July 2 by FrenchConnection44

[CTJoe]

31 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The average height of an NHL forward is 6'1" and the average weight is 198 I think. I think it is entirely probably that Helenius can hand a big a scoring winger when he is 22yrs old entering his prime, why shouldn't he? Benson routinely shut down bigger forwards than him at 5'10" 180lbs as an 18yr old. 

The one thing you seem to be forgetting is speed. The NHL plays fast and most guys hit the balance of size and speed around 195-205lbs. McDavid is 194, Barkov is 214, Mackinnon 201, Bergeron 196, etc... there is a reason for that. There has to be a balance between your weight and your speed/agility. It is why NHL players often talk about losing weight to be faster or more nimble. It is all a balance but Sabrespace has made some arbitrary decision that anyone under 200lbs is too small and anyone under 6' is too small and it is just a fake cutoff. 

The Sabres issue is not that they don't have a forward core of 215lb 6'3" guys, it is that they don't have a forward core that wins puck battles and forechecks hard. They play soft not because of size but because of character, they have a character issue that hopefully coaching helps correct.

At 18, maybe Helenius grows an inch or two?  at 190 pounds now, he'll definitely be over 200 shortly.  He's got massive arms already, very unlike most 18 years, which explains why he's held up extremely well vs men.  He wasn't really on my radar pre-draft, but, I honestly think they would have taken him at 11 if they kept that pick. The 2 d would have been tempting, but a thick, tough center was more of a need.

[CTJoe]

22 minutes ago, LTS said:

100%, but that's how it works with anything that is "developing".  Right now the Sabres have players who are still developing. Generally that's the case until about 25 or 26 these days.

The NHL is really broken down into 5 groups, and the predictability of performance is based on the mix of those 5 groups.

18-22 - super raw, hard to tell what will happen and generally should not comprise a good portion of the roster
22-25 - developing, you get a sense of what they can be, and you hope they reach that potential
26-29 - definitely know what a player has and will bring to the table
30-33 - you know the player, now the question is will they begin to drop off (the reverse of 22-25)
34+ - the reverse of 18-22.  Will they drop-off

So, if you look at a team's roster construction, the more the roster fits into each of those areas the easier it becomes to predict the capabilities of the team.

The Sabres have fielded a young roster for a few years, not ideal. This year they project:

18-22 - 3 players (Benson, Power, Levi)
22-25 - 8 players (Cozens, Quinn, JJP, Krebs, Dahlin, Byram, Jokiharju, UPL)
26-29 - 9 players (Thompson, Tuch, Greenway, Lafferty, NAK, Malenstyn, Clifton, Gilbert, Bryson) - 4 of which were brought onto the roster in the last 2 days
30-33 - 1 player (Zucker)
34+ - 1 player (Reimer)

The core of the team is still in the harder to predict stage and that leads to the uncertainty.  if the 22-25 group goes off then the Sabres will be fine.  If not, then not so much.  Adams did add to the team in key areas so that more predictable players are in the bottom 6. This is also why people want an established 3C.. so think 26+... to improve predictability of what this team can do.

It's certainly not a hard and fast rule as superstar 18 year olds change things as well as work horses playing into their late 30's.  The Sabres roster construction leads to a lot of ifs... it's just how it is.

Extremely good analysis - well thought out

[CallawaySabres]

Everyone keeps saying that we need to get a 3rd line center but the silver bullet is a 2nd line center, push Cousins down to 3 and trade Krebs.

Offer Krebs, 1st round 2025 pick (unprotected) and a top 3 prospect for a 2nd line center. I wonder if that would be enough.

[Flashsabre]

3 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:

Everyone keeps saying that we need to get a 3rd line center but the silver bullet is a 2nd line center, push Cousins down to 3 and trade Krebs.

Offer Krebs, 1st round 2025 pick (unprotected) and a top 3 prospect for a 2nd line center. I wonder if that would be enough.

Who is the centre though?

[steveoath]

Rumoured Olofsson to vegas. 

[LGR4GM]

43 minutes ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

But my point is more about the kind of game and physical toughness a player brings to the ice. Nevertheless, a guy who is 6’2, 215 and fast and physical will generally wreak more havoc as a defensive forward than one who is 5’10, 185-190. Let alone 175-180. I appreciate Cozens willingness in him, but it’s just not his game. The only guy we really had in the last couple of years who had a modicum of that mentality was Krebs. But he just wasn’t big enough nor good enough. There is not one physically intimidating player on this team that opponents would say, “that guy is a pain to play against bec he will grind you into the ice.” And it doesn’t have to be a fighter.

Isn't that what we just added in: 

Sam Lafferty, 6'2" 205lbs - 191 hits in 79games

Nicolas Aubé-Kubel, 5'11" 187lbs - 159 hits in 60games

Beck Malenstyn, 6'2" 194lbs - 241 hits in 81games

All 3 guys have more hits than the top forward on Buffalo in 2023 and only Clifton and Dahlin (204 and 195) are in the ballpark of Laffferty and Malenstyn

Edited July 2 by LGR4GM

[CallawaySabres]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

Who is the centre though?

That is not my job, that is a job that is clearly waaaayyyyy over Adam's head.

[North Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

Who is the centre though?

Seth Jarvis rfa canes?

[North Buffalo]

Also Lundell, Kaliyev, Byfield, Also if KA had a pair Matty Berniers is an rfa just saying.

[Ruff Around The Edges]

If Kevyn Adams appears to have no cajones to make a big trade or be aggressive in UFA, how in the world can we expect Adams to do something that almost every GM HATES and that is signing one of another teams's RFA's?

ZERO chance of this happening IMHO.

[dudacek]

Ross Colton as a trade target perhaps with Colorado in a cap squeeze?

Boone Jenner with Columbus adding Monahan?

Just spitballing.

[oddoublee]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Ross Colton as a trade target perhaps with Colorado in a cap squeeze?

Boone Jenner with Columbus adding Monahan?

Just spitballing.

Wouldn't mind either. Boone Jenner would probably be our second best center if acquired. Would allow Cozens to season a bit more. Always been a fan of his game.

15 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Ross Colton as a trade target perhaps with Colorado in a cap squeeze?

Boone Jenner with Columbus adding Monahan?

Just spitballing.

But if I'm Columbus, not moving him until trade deadline...and he will cost a pretty penny to get at that time. That's my hunch anyway.

[triumph_communes]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Ross Colton as a trade target perhaps with Colorado in a cap squeeze?

Boone Jenner with Columbus adding Monahan?

Just spitballing.

The options out there still are why I cling to optimism 

[North Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Ruff Around The Edges said:

If Kevyn Adams appears to have no cajones to make a big trade or be aggressive in UFA, how in the world can we expect Adams to do something that almost every GM HATES and that is signing one of another teams's RFA's?

ZERO chance of this happening IMHO.

Do a sign and trade... have Sabres give them numbers and work a deal... use some creativity... not that hard.

[Brawndo]

 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, Brawndo said:

 

[North Buffalo]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

 

Wow...

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

 

That was steep

[oddoublee]

16 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

That was steep

I would've been good w the sabres paying that. 

[Brawndo]

 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

 

Why, Santy Claus, WHY?  Why are you taking our tree?