Fire Kevyn Adams

[Crusader1969]

10 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I love the fact that we got tougher (even if it took Adams year 5 to figure it out) but you now lost Middelstadt and Skinner with no plan whatsoever. So 1 step closer, two steps back seems like the Sabres way imo.

Let's not forget that skinner was a 3rd liner the last few months of the season.  He scored a whopping 9 goals from Jan 1st onwards.  Those goals either came in lopsided win or against MTL.  
And for those that are saying the top 6 is worse now than it was to begin last season.. 

Your top 6 to begin last season was

Skinner  Tage Tuch

Oloffson.  Cozens.   JJP

----------

I'll take Benson and Quinn any day of the week of Olofsson and Skinner 

[Thorner]

18 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

Let's not forget that skinner was a 3rd liner the last few months of the season.  He scored a whopping 9 goals from Jan 1st onwards.  Those goals either came in lopsided win or against MTL.  
And for those that are saying the top 6 is worse now than it was to begin last season.. 

Your top 6 to begin last season was

Skinner  Tage Tuch

Oloffson.  Cozens.   JJP

----------

I'll take Benson and Quinn any day of the week of Olofsson and Skinner 

That’s mostly semantics. Mittelstadt was our best F in actuality 

we switched out Mittelstadt and Skinner. Benson exists on both teams. Quinn (because he was hurt) for Olofsson is some potential for better, yes. But in terms of what your best forwards look like it’s:

Thompson >>>>>>> Thompson

Cozens >>>>>>>> Cozens

Tuch >>>>>>>Tuch

Peterka >>>>>>> Peterka

Benson >>>>>>>> Benson 

Mittelstadt >>>>>> Zucker? 

Olofsson >>>>>>> Quinn

Skinner >>>>>>>> Malenstyn? 

Mittelstadt to Zucker is a clear downgrade and Quinn instead of Olofsson should be a clear upgrade. Skinner to Malenstyn is a downgrade. Perhaps with fit improvement some would argue Skinner/Beck a wash, in which case, even then, we are merely counting on injury luck to get us back to only ~ even at F when we *already needed improvement*

OUT: Mittelstadt, Skinner, VO

IN: Zucker, Malenstyn, Quinn 

Edited July 3 by Thorny

[Pimlach]

On 7/2/2024 at 1:44 PM, Crusader1969 said:

It's almost like everyone forgot what the biggest complaints of last season were 

1) coaching 

2) lack of physicality, especially at the bottom of the roster 

3) Jeff Skinner 

all 3 seem to be rectified 

True.  The only things missing are replacing Mitts (they had the resources to improve upon him) and backfilling Skinner (they cleared money for this).  
 

Do these things and they start looking like a team that is trying.  

[Taro T]

29 minutes ago, Thorny said:

That’s mostly semantics. Mittelstadt was our best F in actuality 

we switched out Mittelstadt and Skinner. Benson exists on both teams. Quinn (because he was hurt) for Olofsson is some potential for better, yes. But in terms of what your best forwards look like it’s:

Thompson >>>>>>> Thompson

Cozens >>>>>>>> Cozens

Tuch >>>>>>>Tuch

Peterka >>>>>>> Peterka

Benson >>>>>>>> Benson 

Mittelstadt >>>>>> Zucker? 

Olofsson >>>>>>> Quinn

Skinner >>>>>>>> Malenstyn? 

Mittelstadt to Zucker is a clear downgrade and Quinn instead of Olofsson should be a clear upgrade. Skinner to Malenstyn is a downgrade. Perhaps with fit improvement some would argue Skinner/Beck a wash, in which case, even then, we are merely counting on injury luck to get us back to only ~ even at F when we *already needed improvement*

OUT: Mittelstadt, Skinner, VO

IN: Zucker, Malenstyn, Quinn 

Not arguing, legitimately asking, wasn't Greenway a bigger piece of last season's team down the stretch than Skinner was?  And also, wouldn't Greenway be considered to be a bigger piece of this season's team than Malenstyn?

If looking at the team from the beginning of the year, it should be Skinner --> Greenway; and if looking at it later, it should be Greenway --> Greenway; right?

Malenstyn would seem to be Girgensons replacement.

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Not arguing, legitimately asking, wasn't Greenway a bigger piece of last season's team down the stretch than Skinner was?  And also, wouldn't Greenway be considered to be a bigger piece of this season's team than Malenstyn?

If looking at the team from the beginning of the year, it should be Skinner --> Greenway; and if looking at it later, it should be Greenway --> Greenway; right?

Malenstyn would seem to be Girgensons replacement.

Greenway is here in both cases 

You can put Malenstyn with whoever. Skinner has to be with someone new, though 

Edited July 3 by Thorny

[Crusader1969]

38 minutes ago, Thorny said:

That’s mostly semantics. Mittelstadt was our best F in actuality 

we switched out Mittelstadt and Skinner. Benson exists on both teams. Quinn (because he was hurt) for Olofsson is some potential for better, yes. But in terms of what your best forwards look like it’s:

Thompson >>>>>>> Thompson

Cozens >>>>>>>> Cozens

Tuch >>>>>>>Tuch

Peterka >>>>>>> Peterka

Benson >>>>>>>> Benson 

Mittelstadt >>>>>> Zucker? 

Olofsson >>>>>>> Quinn

Skinner >>>>>>>> Malenstyn? 

Mittelstadt to Zucker is a clear downgrade and Quinn instead of Olofsson should be a clear upgrade. Skinner to Malenstyn is a downgrade. Perhaps with fit improvement some would argue Skinner/Beck a wash, in which case, even then, we are merely counting on injury luck to get us back to only ~ even at F when we *already needed improvement*

OUT: Mittelstadt, Skinner, VO

IN: Zucker, Malenstyn, Quinn 

If you are looking for a 3rd line winger I'll take Malenstyn over skinner.   skinner does absolutely nothing for you on the 3rd line.  
You have to compare 3rd line skinner to his replacement not top line skinner who lost his job to JJP 

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, Crusader1969 said:

If you are looking for a 3rd line winger I'll take Malenstyn over skinner.   skinner does absolutely nothing for you on the 3rd line.  
You have to compare 3rd line skinner to his replacement not top line skinner who lost his job to JJP 

Even I can’t deal in this level of semantics. Every forward spot is improved ok? lol 

Your definitions are *arbitrary*. I don’t care if Mittelstadt was “top 6” in your comp or not. That is ardent semantics. He was one of our best 6 forwards 

[Thorner]

If Skinner was “replaced” by a guy we already had, then we need to consider who replaced JJP on the third line. It was, in your semantics, significantly downgraded to Skinner. So you can’t just say you replace skinner with Malenstyn reasonably so A-ok. Do you see the semantics yet? You are *actually* needing to replace what JJP was providing in a third line role. Which Beck doesn’t do 

The only way that makes sense is bodies in, bodies out

Edited July 3 by Thorny

[Taro T]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If Skinner was “replaced” by a guy we already had, then we need to consider who replaced JJP on the third line. It was, in your semantics, significantly downgraded to Skinner. So you can’t just say you replace skinner with Malenstyn reasonably so A-ok. Do you see the semantics yet? You are *actually* needing to replace what JJP was providing in a third line role. Which Beck doesn’t do 

The only way that makes sense is bodies in, bodies out

But you're stopping it at 8 bodies.  It very realistically ends up Greenway as that 8th body sliding in, because he wasn't in the 8 on the original list but he's (in all likelihood) going to be playing in a more important role than any of the 3 UFAs signed on Monday.

So, again, isn't it Greenway coming in?  (And again, not trying to argue, just trying to have it apples to apples.  And yes, Greenway was there in both cases, but he's presumably ahead of Malenstyn in the 2nd case whether he was ahead of Skinner in the 1st case or not.)

And agree very much that Mittelstadt to Zucker or Krebs is a legit downgrade.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

But you're stopping it at 8 bodies.  It very realistically ends up Greenway as that 8th body sliding in, because he wasn't in the 8 on the original list but he's (in all likelihood) going to be playing in a more important role than any of the 3 UFAs signed on Monday.

So, again, isn't it Greenway coming in?  (And again, not trying to argue, just trying to have it apples to apples.  And yes, Greenway was there in both cases, but he's presumably ahead of Malenstyn in the 2nd case whether he was ahead of Skinner in the 1st case or not.)

And agree very much that Mittelstadt to Zucker or Krebs is a legit downgrade.

My gosh. Greenway was on the roster to start last season, no?

Just name the 12 guys, and guys who are on both teams get matched with eachother. I’ve already explained why with the JJP example 

Edited July 3 by Thorny

[Crusader1969]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

If Skinner was “replaced” by a guy we already had, then we need to consider who replaced JJP on the third line. It was, in your semantics, significantly downgraded to Skinner. So you can’t just say you replace skinner with Malenstyn reasonably so A-ok. Do you see the semantics yet? You are replacing what JJP was providing in a third line role. Which Beck doesn’t do 

Actually no I don't see any semantics the orignal post said the top 6 was better last year and I disagree.
Now if you want to compare the top 9, then I can agree. has nothing to do with Skinner. IMHO, not having him on the roster is a net positive.  I believe, The team is better off with Zucker on its 3rd line than Skinner

The downgrade has everything to do with Mitts not Skinner 

Here is how I look at it 

Skinner, Tage, Tuch < JJP, Tage, Tuch

JJP, Cozens, Olofsson < Benson, Cozens, Quinn 

Benson, Mitts, Greenway > Zucker, Krebs, Greenway

and the 4th lines aren't even close as it's much improved 

fill in the 3C with an improvement from Krebs is the last piece 

 

[Thorner]

Just now, Crusader1969 said:

Actually no I don't see any semantics the orignal post said the top 6 was better last year and I disagree.
Now if you want to compare the top 9, then I can agree. has nothing to do with Skinner. IMHO, not having him on the roster is a net positive.  I believe, The team is better off with Zucker on its 3rd line than Skinner

The downgrade has everything to do with Mitts not Skinner 

Here is how I look at it 

Skinner, Tage, Tuch < JJP, Tage, Tuch

JJP, Cozens, Olofsson < Benson, Cozens, Quinn 

Benson, Mitts, Greenway > Zucker, Krebs, Greenway

and the 4th lines aren't even close as it's much improved 

fill in the 3C with an improvement from Krebs is the last piece 

 

Yes, it’s semantics. Because “top 6” being “better” only matters if it’s your actual best 6 forwards. Pretending Casey wasn’t in actuality part of our “top 6” doesn’t make any sense. It simply changes when the team falls behind in overall composition until one line further down in the post lol

[Crusader1969]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

My gosh. Greenway was on the roster to start last season, no?

Just name the 12 guys and guys who are on both teams gets matched with eachother. I’ve already explained why with the JJP example 

Out with 4 guys who won't be missed 

Olofsson, Girgs, KO and Skinner.  

and 1 guy who will be in Mitts

add in Quinn, Malenstyn, Zucker. Aube-Kubel, Lafferty

I'd say they are improved 

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Yes, it’s semantics. Because “top 6” being “better” only matters if it’s your actual best 6 forwards. Pretending Casey wasn’t in actuality part of our “top 6” doesn’t make any sense. It simply changes when the team falls behind in overall composition until one line further down in the post lol

I'm pretty sure top 6 refers to top 2 lines but anyways..
 

[Thorner]

Just now, Crusader1969 said:

Out with 4 guys who won't be missed 

Olofsson, Girgs, KO and Skinner.  

and 1 guy who will be in Mitts

add in Quinn, Malenstyn, Zucker. Aube-Kubel, Lafferty

I'd say they are improved 

Finally; a workable template 

I appreciate it and your conclusion is reasonable

I do entirely disagree:

Mittelstadt > Quinn

Skinner > Zucker

Girgensons = Malenstyn

Okpsoso = Lafferty

Olofsson = Aube-Kubel

…I think there’s a solid argument to be made there enough “=“ there that style and deployment and fit could be a big factor so I’m not ruling out the group, in a all-avenues-considered sense, coming close to last year’s group. We’d need a huge year from Quinn though and a bounce back from Zucker

Maybe the improved GT if we get it bridges the gap to the playoffs? I’ve already gone on record saying I think we have a “squint and you can see playoffs” roster - I’m not ruling out we make it with this

But that’s a neither-here-nor-there position to me. The idea wasn’t to equal last year’s roster on paper and role the dice. Missing 13/4 years means nothing? The idea was to reinforce our chances by making moves tantamount to someone serious about year 14 being *UNACCEPTABLE*. 

you are configuring at roster where it’s merely potentially possible but leaning unlikely, if we make no other adds

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Finally; a workable template 

I appreciate it and your conclusion is reasonable

I do entirely disagree:

Mittelstadt > Quinn

Skinner > Zucker

Girgensons = Malenstyn

Okpsoso = Lafferty

Olofsson = Aube-Kubel

…I think there’s a solid argument to be made there enough “=“ there that style and deployment and fit could be a big factor so I’m not ruling out the group, in a all-avenues-considered sense, coming close to last year’s group. We’d need a huge year from Quinn though and a bounce back from Zucker

Maybe the improved GT if we get it bridges the gap to the playoffs? I’ve already gone on record saying I think we have a “squint and you can see playoffs” roster - I’m not ruling out we make it with this

But that’s a neither-here-nor-there position to me. The idea wasn’t to equal last year’s roster on paper and role the dice. Missing 13/4 years means nothing? The idea was to reinforce our chances by making moves tantamount to someone serious about year 14 being *UNACCEPTABLE*. 

you are configuring at roster where it’s merely potentially possible but leaning unlikely, if we make no other adds

You would rather Jeff Skinner on your 3rd line than Zucker? 
 

and a 4th line of KO, Girgs and Olofsson is just as good as the one they have now ? 

[Thorner]

23 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

You would rather Jeff Skinner on your 3rd line than Zucker? 
 

and a 4th line of KO, Girgs and Olofsson is just as good as the one they have now ? 

I’d rather have Jeff Skinner, absolutely 

KO and Girgs are good 4th liners. Them vs any of the 2 newbies is a toss up to me more less 

and yes, I wouldn’t play VO on line 4 but I’m the guy defending him on this site: he was good every season before last. His first 4 in the nhl he was good. He’s actually got a solid track record and definitely has a place on a competently built team 

He doesn’t make as good of a 4th liner (that’s why, if you see, I made a reference to “fit” in my post) but as a base asset yes I believe there’s more to be gotten out of Olofsson than Sam freaking Lafferty. His metrics were terrible. Honestly an “=“ there was generous. Yes, I get new guy = good guy buy shiny new toy syndrome ususlly wears off. They all have flaws

Edited July 3 by Thorny

[dudacek]

How come in the steady stream of crying over spilt Mitts, nobody ever talks about the other shift that went with it?

We upgraded Erik Johnson to Bowen Byram.

In my view, we have downgraded our 3rd line, but in the process upgraded our 2nd and 3rd pairs.

(We also upgraded that “harder, faster” team identity theme that has continued to play out this summer)

I guess remembering that Byram exists has become my Sabrespace thing.

Edited July 4 by dudacek

[Crusader1969]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

How come in the steady stream of crying over spilt Mitts, nobody ever talks about other shift that went with it?

We upgraded Erik Johnson to Bowen Byram.

In my view, we have downgraded our 3rd line, but in the process upgraded our 2nd and 3rd pairs.

(We also upgraded that “harder, faster” team identity theme that has continued to play out this summer)

I guess remembering that Byram exists has become my Sabrespace thing.

I'll also assume it's an easier to replace a 3C than a top 4 Dman.  

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Crusader1969 said:

I'll also assume it's an easier to replace a 3C than a top 4 Dman.  

Apparently not 😁

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I'll also assume it's an easier to replace a 3C than a top 4 Dman.  

But, as of their current play, certainly not easier to replace Casey Mittelstadt than Bowen Byram, which, forgive me, is far more salient than somewhat arbitrary line designations 

25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

How come in the steady stream of crying over spilt Mitts, nobody ever talks about the other shift that went with it?

We upgraded Erik Johnson to Bowen Byram.

In my view, we have downgraded our 3rd line, but in the process upgraded our 2nd and 3rd pairs.

(We also upgraded that “harder, faster” team identity theme that has continued to play out this summer)

I guess remembering that Byram exists has become my Sabrespace thing.

I’ve had this discussion with you multiple times. That if we don’t address the need at F, we are relying on a potential Byram advantage on D to make up the gap, plus goaltending. I think I posted that literally today. 

We’ve also discussed how it’s only a concept: we aren’t getting good hockey from Byram yet. Perhaps it’s not so hard to understand why he’s an afterthought when his play was also an afterthought when measuring quality 

The ball is in Bowen’s court to show he can be that good Byram NOW 

In *Buffalo*

Edited July 4 by Thorny

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But, as of their current play, certainly not easier to replace Casey Mittelstadt than Bowen Byram, which, forgive me, is far more salient than somewhat arbitrary line designations 

I’ve had this discussion with you multiple times. That if we don’t address the need at F, we are relying on a potential Byram advantage on D to make up the gap, plus goaltending. I think I posted that literally today. 

We’ve also discussed how it’s only a concept: we aren’t getting good hockey from Byram yet. Perhaps it’s not so hard to understand why he’s an afterthought when his play was also an afterthought when measuring quality 

The ball is in Bowen’s court to show he can be that good Byram NOW 

In *Buffalo*

Yep. We're the only two people who ever seem to discuss Bowen Byram on here except GA when he's portraying him as a latter-day David Cooper.

The context here is the above discussion about in/out and the effectiveness of Byram versus Erik Johnson.

Johnson paced for a 5-point 80-game season as a Sabre. Byram paced for 15 goals and 40 points.

Johnson was relied on for less than 14 minutes a night and had a relative Corsi of -17%. In Byram's nearly 22 minutes a night he posted +1%

Even "disappointing" Bo Byram was light years better than Erik Johnson

[dudacek]

Taking it a step further, here's Casey's stat line as an Av versus Bo's as a Sabre.

They each played 18 games.

• Mittelstadt: 4/6/10 -2
• Byram: 3/6/9 -1

This perception some people seem to have that Casey starred for the Avs and Byram sucked for Buffalo is bizarre to me.

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yep. We're the only two people who ever seem to discuss Bowen Byram on here except GA when he's portraying him as a latter-day David Cooper.

The context here is the above discussion about in/out and the effectiveness of Byram versus Erik Johnson.

Johnson paced for a 5-point 80-game season as a Sabre. Byram paced for 15 goals and 40 points.

Johnson was relied on for less than 14 minutes a night and had a relative Corsi of -17%. In Byram's nearly 22 minutes a night he posted +1%

Even "disappointing" Bo Byram was light years better than Erik Johnson

Right right. The defense at least in ability definitely improved because of Byram. Remains to be seen if the team did.

i think I said before I wouldn’t be surprised if they added no one on D (and they really haven’t). I think the group looks fine / good. There are some advanced stats out there suggesting otherwise maybe I’m being too traditional on this but the talent there looks good.

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Taking it a step further, here's Casey's stat line as an Av versus Bo's as a Sabre.

They each played 18 games.

• Mittelstadt: 4/6/10 -2
• Byram: 3/6/9 -1

This perception some people seem to have that Casey starred for the Avs and Byram sucked for Buffalo is bizarre to me.

Byram’s defensive impacts were the worst on the team. Like, the actual last position 

Train wreck in his own end and he’s a dman

Also Casey’s good playoffs fairly or not prob factors in to perception 

Edited July 4 by Thorny

[JohnC]

57 minutes ago, dudacek said:

How come in the steady stream of crying over spilt Mitts, nobody ever talks about the other shift that went with it?

We upgraded Erik Johnson to Bowen Byram.

In my view, we have downgraded our 3rd line, but in the process upgraded our 2nd and 3rd pairs.

(We also upgraded that “harder, faster” team identity theme that has continued to play out this summer)

I guess remembering that Byram exists has become my Sabrespace thing.

Byram potentially is an upgrade in the defensive group. But there is a balancing act that has to be considered. By dispatching Mitts without adequately replacing him, we lost a player who not only was a 2/3 C player, but also a player who can fill in on the top line when required and still maintain a top line proficiency. (That's exacrly what happened when he filled in for Tage the prior year.) On top of that, Mitts was versatile enough where we can also play the wing when required. 

So far, we haven't filled the void of a Mitts departure. In my view, it would have been better to keep Mitts and bring in a lesser defenseman who maybe plays a more physical game. I have said all along that this trade was a good trade for both teams. However, if the Mitts hole is not adequately replaced, then the balance tilts away from the Sabres. (My opinion. )

Edited July 4 by JohnC

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Right right. The defence definitely improved because of Byram. Remains to be seen if the team did.

i think I said before I wouldn’t be surprised if they added no one on D (and they really haven’t). I think the group looks fine / good. There are some advanced stats out there suggesting otherwise maybe I’m being too traditional on this but the talent there looks good.

Byram’s defensive impacts were the worst on the team. Like, the actual last position 

Train wreck in his own end and he’s a dman

Hockey reference is showing him a -3 on expected goals, and -1 on actual ES goal differential. His Corsi is -0.3. Those are his Buffalo numbers only.

If he's a train wreck in his own zone on whatever metric you saw, he must be pretty much exactly the opposite at the other end.

Edited July 4 by dudacek