Sabres acquire Forward Beck Malenstvn for 43rd Overall

[Believer]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Fine fine. I don't hate it. I don't love it but this team desperately needs more hardest working. 

And physical players. Hitters. Guys who can send a message. Think Dahlin will like this guy. Couple of Messengers.

[Brawndo]

The cost of acquisition for him was way too high. 
 

I have reason to believe that the Sabres Analytics Department was not fully onboard with this.

As bad as Washington was last season, they were worse when he was on the ice 

 

[dudacek]

Big brain trade looking for the next Dakota Joshua with a player nobody knows.

Sounds like everything the Sabres need or want on the fourth line. Some of the hardest deployment in hockey last year and he is the type of player you guys have been screaming for. 241 hits?

Lindy will know this guy and probably gave his stamp of approval. And I'm sure the analytics team had a hard look.

High price to pay for this type. Ballsy, risk/reward move that could end up looking really smart or really stupid.

Edited June 29 by dudacek

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

The cost of acquisition for him was way too high. 
 

I have reason to believe that the Sabres Analytics Department was not fully onboard with this.

As bad as Washington was last season, they were worse when he was on the ice 

 

So hard look, and maybe not listened to?

Even more intriguing now.

[SDS]

2 hours ago, Trettioåtta said:

This seems like a huge overpayment? He's 26 and has played like 100 NHL games and scored 25 points. What am I missing?

Here it is folks. We need a complainers cage match. On one side will be those complaining about no excuses and just get it done. On the other side will be those complaining about the overpayment.

[dudacek]

From a Caps fan on HFboards:

I wanna take a little deeper dive here to point out just how brutal the minutes for Washington's "4th" line are and how nuts it is that they're performing so well anyway.

The individual members of that line have started their shifts in the offensive zone 7.98% of the time (NAK), 8.02% of the time (Malenstyn), and 9.29% of the time (Dowd) over ~400 minutes of 5 on 5 play each. As you mentioned, as a unit they've outscored opponents 13-6 at 5 on 5. OZ Start% as a statistic dates back to the 07-08 season, and in that time only one player has posted a sub 10% season while playing at least 300 minutes at 5 on 5: Paul Gaustad in 15/16. He had 5.76% OZ Starts and was outscored 6-21. Coincidentally, Gaustad had been traded with a 4th for a 1st as a pure rental at the 2012 trade deadline, the only 4th line center I can think of who was traded for a 1st rounder. That year he ranked 8th out of 626 skaters with 31.98% OZ Starts. One of the things you notice as you go through OZ Start% year by year is that giving players extreme deployments in one direction or another is a pretty recent phenomenon. In 07/08, the skater with the lowest OZ Start% was Bobby Holik at 29.62%. This season, that number would good for 30th.

Long story short, the Caps 4th line is at the forefront of the current trend of highly specialized deployments, and as a result they're playing quite possibly the most brutal minutes of any line in the history of hockey, on a team that's overall been outscored 71-90 at 5 on 5 (58-84 if you factor their line out)... and they're outscoring their opponents by a 2-1 margin in the process. It's insane, it shouldn't be possible, and yet it's happening. Nic Dowd should've been the Caps' All Star, and he should legitimately be in the Selke conversation.

[dudacek]

More interesting stuff from the same poster:

https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/caps-roster-general-discussion-coaching-fas-cap-lines-etc-2023-24-regular-season-edition.2942812/page-205#post-195651545

Basically, it's a dive into how Malenstyn got his ***** analytics.

Edited June 29 by dudacek

[Brawndo]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Big brain trade looking for the next Dakota Joshua with a player nobody knows.

Sounds like everything the Sabres need or want on the fourth line. Some of the hardest deployment in hockey last year and he is the type of player you guys have been screaming for. 241 hits?

Lindy will know this guy and probably gave his stamp of approval. And I'm sure the analytics team had a hard look.

High price to pay for this type. Ballsy, risk/reward move that could end up looking really smart or really stupid.

From The Athletic Vancouver Reporter

[SDS]

3 hours ago, ... said:

So this is an Appert acquisition. 

I think it’s 100% a Lindy acquisition. It seems as though all the bluster about bringing him in as coach has been memory holed and this is still just the Kevyn Adams show.

Who here thinks Lindy is not giving the approval stamp on every single player he brings in?

[SDS]

2 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

That’s the average across the round and it isn’t linear. It drops off substantially after 46.

Please show me any draft curve that has a bend in the curve at 46. 

[Brawndo]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

From a Caps fan on HFboards:

I wanna take a little deeper dive here to point out just how brutal the minutes for Washington's "4th" line are and how nuts it is that they're performing so well anyway.

The individual members of that line have started their shifts in the offensive zone 7.98% of the time (NAK), 8.02% of the time (Malenstyn), and 9.29% of the time (Dowd) over ~400 minutes of 5 on 5 play each. As you mentioned, as a unit they've outscored opponents 13-6 at 5 on 5. OZ Start% as a statistic dates back to the 07-08 season, and in that time only one player has posted a sub 10% season while playing at least 300 minutes at 5 on 5: Paul Gaustad in 15/16. He had 5.76% OZ Starts and was outscored 6-21. Coincidentally, Gaustad had been traded with a 4th for a 1st as a pure rental at the 2012 trade deadline, the only 4th line center I can think of who was traded for a 1st rounder. That year he ranked 8th out of 626 skaters with 31.98% OZ Starts. One of the things you notice as you go through OZ Start% year by year is that giving players extreme deployments in one direction or another is a pretty recent phenomenon. In 07/08, the skater with the lowest OZ Start% was Bobby Holik at 29.62%. This season, that number would good for 30th.

Long story short, the Caps 4th line is at the forefront of the current trend of highly specialized deployments, and as a result they're playing quite possibly the most brutal minutes of any line in the history of hockey, on a team that's overall been outscored 71-90 at 5 on 5 (58-84 if you factor their line out)... and they're outscoring their opponents by a 2-1 margin in the process. It's insane, it shouldn't be possible, and yet it's happening. Nic Dowd should've been the Caps' All Star, and he should legitimately be in the Selke conversation.

What’s interesting is Dowd’s Fancy Stats are much better than Malenstyn 

 

 

[Brawndo]

5 minutes ago, SDS said:

I think it’s 100% a Lindy acquisition. It seems as though all the bluster about bringing him in his coach has been memory hold and now this is just Kevyn Adams.

Who here thinks Lindy is not giving the approval stamp on every single player he brings in?

Or blocking players he does not want brought in 

[DarthEbriate]

A 2nd is high, but figure this is a player who will be a Mike Grier. Don't be surprised if Ruff plays him on the 3rd line as the gritty side opposite a shooting winger.

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

What’s interesting is Dowd’s Fancy Stats are much better than Malenstyn 

 

 

Yep, check out the second link I posted.

The guy explains why.

[IKnowPhysics]

25 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

I have reason to believe that the Sabres Analytics Department was not fully onboard with this.

I have reason to believe the Sabres Analytics Department adjusted for usage in their analysis and was fully onboard with this.

 

[GoPuckYourself]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

More interesting stuff from the same poster:

https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/caps-roster-general-discussion-coaching-fas-cap-lines-etc-2023-24-regular-season-edition.2942812/page-205#post-195651545

Basically, it's a dive into how Malenstyn got his ***** analytics.

This is why I rely more on my eyeballs then most of these ridiculous stats because when you deep dive analytics there always seems to be flaws in them. I know the math nerds are going to go ham on my assesment but I dont care. LOL 

Edited June 29 by GoPuckYourself

[Brawndo]

5 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

I have reason to believe the Sabres Analytics Department adjusted for usage in their analysis and was fully onboard with this.

 

Given the price they paid for him, I really hope your reasoning is better than mine 

[mjd1001]

As others have said, 2nd round pick seems high, even if he is a hard worker and great in his own end.   Could you have done it for a 3rd or 4th?  Could you have done it for a mid level prospect?  That 2nd rounder....flip it to someone, ANYONE if there is no-one you want for next year's 2nd rounder.  A 2025 2nd rounder might be very valuable as a trade chip near the deadline this year.

But again, did they REALLY want him and other teams were offering a 3rd and you had to go with a 2nd?    Did you REALLY want him and Washington REALLY wanted to keep him and demanded a 2nd?  I don't know. I just hope this guy is good and a legit NHL'er at whatever role he has.....because around the deadline, a 2nd round pick usually gets you a LEGIT NHL'er.

[kas23]

2 hours ago, ... said:

Barring a NMC, the players have nothing to do with the trade. The other GMs across the league know the position we're in and will take advantage of it. There will be no fair trades for us.

We saw this with the Chychrun trade as well. We were offering better picks than Ottawa, but Arizona wanted more from us. Arizona was so hell bent on taking advantage of us, they ultimately took less. For some reason, teams want more from us than other teams. 

[Nitro60]

PK and defensive forward.  Ruff will like having him in the line up.  

[SDS]

25 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Did you REALLY want him and Washington REALLY wanted to keep him and demanded a 2nd?  I don't know. I just hope this guy is good and a legit NHL'er at whatever role he has.....because around the deadline, a 2nd round pick usually gets you a LEGIT NHL'er.

I bet that was the case in your first statement. As for the last statement here… A second round pick absolutely does NOT usually get you a legit NHL player. A quick Google search says it’s 34% for the second round.

[mjd1001]

23 minutes ago, SDS said:

I bet that was the case in your first statement. As for the last statement here… A second round pick absolutely does NOT usually get you a legit NHL player. A quick Google search says it’s 34% for the second round.

I'm saying at the trade deadline, not at the draft.  A 2nd round pick is usually good enough to get you a decent rental in many years.

[SDS]

7 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm saying at the trade deadline, not at the draft.  A 2nd round pick is usually good enough to get you a decent rental in many years.

My misunderstanding.

[JP51]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

More interesting stuff from the same poster:

https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/caps-roster-general-discussion-coaching-fas-cap-lines-etc-2023-24-regular-season-edition.2942812/page-205#post-195651545

Basically, it's a dive into how Malenstyn got his ***** analytics.

I don't hate this move I like he is thinking grit. Interesting take on the stats though. Big price to pay but hoping we love this guy and the trade 

[...]

1 hour ago, SDS said:

I think it’s 100% a Lindy acquisition. It seems as though all the bluster about bringing him in as coach has been memory holed and this is still just the Kevyn Adams show.

Who here thinks Lindy is not giving the approval stamp on every single player he brings in?

Yes, Lindy's approval is a given. My point is that it's thanks to Appert this guy showed up on the radar.