Thorner Posted July 3 Report Share Posted July 3 (edited) 7 hours ago, inkman said: I wish I had the time to find the data but basically, two of the guys we just picked up were on the Caps 4th line which has the worst deployment they’ve seen since tracking these stats. All defensive zone starts, all against the other teams top lines. I’m willing to see how it plays out. I like the fact they picked up men who do things other men do on the ice. As opposed to the boys club we’ve had at the arena the last few years. To be fair, it’s not like Beck had good underlyings in those deployments Edited July 3 by Thorny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 3 Report Share Posted July 3 46 minutes ago, Thorny said: To be fair, it’s not like Beck had good underlyings in those deployments Isn’t nearly everything in that chart save the last group a measure of offence? And isn’t the whole story of his deployment the fact that 90% of his shifts start in the Dzone against the Panarins and Crosbys of the world? Isnt this chart saying that under those circumstances he loses 1 more retrieval than he wins over 60 minutes of ice time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorner Posted July 3 Report Share Posted July 3 (edited) 18 minutes ago, dudacek said: Isn’t nearly everything in that chart save the last group a measure of offence? And isn’t the whole story of his deployment the fact that 90% of his shifts start in the Dzone against the Panarins and Crosbys of the world? Isnt this chart saying that under those circumstances he loses 1 more retrieval than he wins over 60 minutes of ice time? You think I understand the charts? - - - There’s a big part there that’s defensive. But yes a lot of it is offensive. But it’s all in the red, and pretty significantly I haven’t heard that he actually had relative matchup difficulty just defensive deployment difficulty. Is there data on the matchups difficulty? You don’t have to post it I’ll take your word for it Edited July 3 by Thorny 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob_sauve28 Posted July 11 Report Share Posted July 11 On 6/29/2024 at 11:57 AM, Turbo44 said: This board is ridiculous I honestly don’t know this guy, but. young, 26 grit plus big on the PK 2nd rounders have meaningful nhl careers about 25% of the time quit overreacting - we can overreact if he doesn’t acquire any top 6 players Way to early to judge. Can't wait to see him and the other play. Seems like we add a man to the line up by trading a boy who can--in the long run--turn into a player, maybe. Have to make moves like this, especially with all we have in the pipeline Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob_sauve28 Posted July 11 Report Share Posted July 11 On 6/29/2024 at 2:07 PM, dudacek said: From a Caps fan on HFboards: I wanna take a little deeper dive here to point out just how brutal the minutes for Washington's "4th" line are and how nuts it is that they're performing so well anyway. The individual members of that line have started their shifts in the offensive zone 7.98% of the time (NAK), 8.02% of the time (Malenstyn), and 9.29% of the time (Dowd) over ~400 minutes of 5 on 5 play each. As you mentioned, as a unit they've outscored opponents 13-6 at 5 on 5. OZ Start% as a statistic dates back to the 07-08 season, and in that time only one player has posted a sub 10% season while playing at least 300 minutes at 5 on 5: Paul Gaustad in 15/16. He had 5.76% OZ Starts and was outscored 6-21. Coincidentally, Gaustad had been traded with a 4th for a 1st as a pure rental at the 2012 trade deadline, the only 4th line center I can think of who was traded for a 1st rounder. That year he ranked 8th out of 626 skaters with 31.98% OZ Starts. One of the things you notice as you go through OZ Start% year by year is that giving players extreme deployments in one direction or another is a pretty recent phenomenon. In 07/08, the skater with the lowest OZ Start% was Bobby Holik at 29.62%. This season, that number would good for 30th. Long story short, the Caps 4th line is at the forefront of the current trend of highly specialized deployments, and as a result they're playing quite possibly the most brutal minutes of any line in the history of hockey, on a team that's overall been outscored 71-90 at 5 on 5 (58-84 if you factor their line out)... and they're outscoring their opponents by a 2-1 margin in the process. It's insane, it shouldn't be possible, and yet it's happening. Nic Dowd should've been the Caps' All Star, and he should legitimately be in the Selke conversation. Crazy! Sure seems like someone did their homework on this guy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASabresIUFAN Posted July 11 Report Share Posted July 11 12 pages on Beck Malenstyn. Wow ! or sad? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted July 11 Author Report Share Posted July 11 Here are the charts for NAK and Malenstyn with and without Dowd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted July 11 Report Share Posted July 11 So if Rafferty is as good as Dowd defensively, we should have a reasonably good shutdown line. I also like the fact there is 3 or so players in the bottom of the lineup who all hit a lot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted July 11 Author Report Share Posted July 11 1 minute ago, LGR4GM said: So if Rafferty is as good as Dowd defensively, we should have a reasonably good shutdown line. I also like the fact there is 3 or so players in the bottom of the lineup who all hit a lot. Here is Lafferty’s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 (edited) There is absolutely nothing in this guy’s pro resume to suggest he has ever or should ever play a prominent role. He’s a defensive and forechecking specialist who got a little over 14 minutes a night in his one NHL season and played with similar players pretty much exclusively. He has no offensive pedigree. There’s a reason he’s been pencilled in on the 4th line of pretty much every lineup you guys have drafted. But given the price we gave up, should we expecting more? Is it possible Lindy sees him in the Grier/Hecht mold and drops him in beside more skilled players for grit and glue? Will he be a Gaustad type piece, out there for every crucial own-zone draw and playing every third shift when we’re trying to protect a lead? I referenced Dakota Joshua earlier in the thread. Like Malenstyn, Joshua didn’t make the NHL until he was 26. He put up 23 points in his first full season to Beck’s 21. Like Malenstyn, he had no offensive pedigree whatsoever - he was a bottom 6er in the AHL who maxed out with 9 goals. Like Malenstyn, he earned his NHL shot with a great physical presence over a lengthy AHL playoff run. I’m really curious as to how Beck will be deployed and what he does with the opportunity. You don’t make the kind of investment in a player the Sabres did if you’re planning to utilize him like Riley Sheahan or Curtis Lazar. Edited July 15 by dudacek 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 4 minutes ago, dudacek said: There is absolutely nothing in this guy’s pro resume to suggest he has ever or should ever play a prominent role. He’s a defensive and forechecking specialist who got a little over 14 minutes a night and played with similar players pretty much exclusively. There’s a reason he’s been pencilled in on the 4th line of pretty much every lineup you guys have drafted. Given the price given up, should we expecting more? Is it possible Lindy sees him in the Grier/Hecht mold and drops him in beside more skilled players for grit and glue? Will he be a Gaustad type piece, out there for every crucial own-zone draw and playing every third shift when we’re trying to protect a lead? I referenced Dakota Joshua earlier in the thread. Like Malenstyn, Joshua didn’t make the NHL until he was 26. He put up 23 points in his first full season to Beck’s 21. Like Malenstyn, he had no offensive pedigree whatsoever - he was a bottom 6er in the AHL who maxed out with 9 goals. Like Malenstyn, he earned his NHL shot with a great physical presence over a lengthy AHL playoff run. I’m really curious as to how he will be deployed and what he does with the opportunity. You don’t make the kind of investment in a player the Sabres did if you’re planning to utilize him like Riley Sheahan or Curtis Lazar. Based on the investment, it sure does seem like Ruff plans on "rolling 4 lines" with everybody dressed having a role and everybody being expected to fill that role. And could definitely see which 12 F's dress, and maybe even which 6 D dress, changing on a nearly nightly basis depending upon who they're playing that night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 10 hours ago, Taro T said: Based on the investment, it sure does seem like Ruff plans on "rolling 4 lines" with everybody dressed having a role and everybody being expected to fill that role. And could definitely see which 12 F's dress, and maybe even which 6 D dress, changing on a nearly nightly basis depending upon who they're playing that night. I have argued that the Sabres giving up a second-round pick for this fourth line player was worth it. We had an excess of draft assets to fill this fourth line need. (I still maintain that position.) However, from a league standard of valuing assets, it was an over-pay. That's an acknowledgment that the Sabres are not a normally run franchise. It is in a desperate situation because of its own failed operation. So, it shouldn't be a surprise that this stuck franchise feels compelled to do things that other franchises wouldn't do. You can see the Lindy influence in the GM's transactions this offseason. Regardless what the price was to rectify the imbalance in this roster, that critical issue at least has been addressed. There is a difference between accumulating talent and putting together a team. At least now you can see more coherence and thought in putting together a roster. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
French Collection Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 4 minutes ago, JohnC said: I have argued that the Sabres giving up a second-round pick for this fourth line player was worth it. We had an excess of draft assets to fill this fourth line need. (I still maintain that position.) However, from a league standard of valuing assets, it was an over-pay. That's an acknowledgment that the Sabres are not a normally run franchise. It is in a desperate situation because of its own failed operation. So, it shouldn't be a surprise that this stuck franchise feels compelled to do things that other franchises wouldn't do. You can see the Lindy influence in the GM's transactions this offseason. Regardless what the price was to rectify the imbalance in this roster, that critical issue at least has been addressed. There is a difference between accumulating talent and putting together a team. At least now you can see more coherence and thought in putting together a roster. An “overpayment” of a draft pick for a roster player isn’t like getting fleeced in a hockey trade. I think that Malenstyn probably could have been had for a 4th or 5th round pick. I don’t think Malenstyn is the next Dakota Joshua but if he is an above average PKer, leads the team in hits and is a beast on the forecheck that is all I can ask from a 4th line winger. If he can generate enough offense to come near 10 goals that is great. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 9 minutes ago, French Collection said: An “overpayment” of a draft pick for a roster player isn’t like getting fleeced in a hockey trade. I think that Malenstyn probably could have been had for a 4th or 5th round pick. I don’t think Malenstyn is the next Dakota Joshua but if he is an above average PKer, leads the team in hits and is a beast on the forecheck that is all I can ask from a 4th line winger. If he can generate enough offense to come near 10 goals that is great. How many other teams do you believe would have given up a second-round pick for him? I don't believe any other team would have done that. Even acknowledging that over-payment, it was worth it for us. However, I just don't see any other team coming to the same conclusion/judgment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 6 minutes ago, JohnC said: How many other teams do you believe would have given up a second-round pick for him? I don't believe any other team would have done that. Even acknowledging that over-payment, it was worth it for us. However, I just don't see any other team coming to the same conclusion/judgment. It doesn't matter how many other teams would've given up a 2 for him. None that were lower in the standings would (we know that because the Caps accepted the Sabres offer) & we know the Caps would rather have him on their roster than a 3td round pick because Adams had to give up a 2. The 2 teams that mattered for this transaction both agreed he was worth a 2. Were they right? We'll know by May. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 The other thing is let's say whoever Buffalo would have drafted makes the NHL. That wouldn't happen until 2028 maybe? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carmel Corn Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 He fills an immediate need or two (PK, defensive focus and speed). Sure it might be an overpay, but we did not have enough of this kind of player (whereas other teams have more of this already on their rosters). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 People talk about the Sabres having to overpay, and being able to get guys like Malenstyn for 4th-rounders. To me, Lafferty and Aube-Kubel are proof that not even the Sabres have to overpay to get guys like Malenstyn. To me this trade wasn't so much about being able to get guys "like" Malenstyn, it was about getting Malenstyn himself. The price suggests to me that Beck was an actual target and they don't see him as just a Patrick Kaleta/Adam Mair type 12/13th forward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tom webster Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 18 minutes ago, dudacek said: People talk about the Sabres having to overpay, and being able to get guys like Malenstyn for 4th-rounders. To me, Lafferty and Aube-Kubel are proof that not even the Sabres have to overpay to get guys like Malenstyn. To me this trade wasn't so much about being able to get guys "like" Malenstyn, it was about getting Malenstyn himself. The price suggests to me that Beck was an actual target and they don't see him as just a Patrick Kaleta/Adam Mair type 12/13th forward. This is exactly correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 59 minutes ago, dudacek said: People talk about the Sabres having to overpay, and being able to get guys like Malenstyn for 4th-rounders. To me, Lafferty and Aube-Kubel are proof that not even the Sabres have to overpay to get guys like Malenstyn. To me this trade wasn't so much about being able to get guys "like" Malenstyn, it was about getting Malenstyn himself. The price suggests to me that Beck was an actual target and they don't see him as just a Patrick Kaleta/Adam Mair type 12/13th forward. I lean towards the idea that Washington had no interest in moving him. It had to get to the point of an offer that finally breaks them. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 4 minutes ago, shrader said: I lean towards the idea that Washington had no interest in moving him. It had to get to the point of an offer that finally breaks them. This must be a good thing right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archie Lee Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 16 minutes ago, shrader said: I lean towards the idea that Washington had no interest in moving him. It had to get to the point of an offer that finally breaks them. I think it is probably the case, but it is also the case that they thought he was a player they could replace in free agency. They signed Brandon Duhaime (on my list as a possible 4th liner before free agency) and Taylor Raddysh to replace Malenstyn and Aube-Kubel. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 41 minutes ago, spndnchz said: This must be a good thing right? Alone? Probably not. But all of the moves together, things look a lot better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
French Collection Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 4 hours ago, Carmel Corn said: He fills an immediate need or two (PK, defensive focus and speed). Sure it might be an overpay, but we did not have enough of this kind of player (whereas other teams have more of this already on their rosters). If he makes me forget about Girgs, Jost and Okposo then it was an upgrade worth the 2nd. Very low bar but eager to watch him play for Lindy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triumph_communes Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 Overpaying for guys you really want to target is okay. Far better than moneyballing some stupid stat or assuming all 4th liners are equivalent so choose the cheapest one. We just all have PTSD from Murray overpaying a decades worth of capital within a season for a whole bunch of duds and not a thought to cultural fit. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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