Adams and Forton pre-draft press conference, 6/20/2024

[7+6=13]

1 hour ago, kas23 said:

Heavens to Betsy, it was a joke. You draft at higher positions, you have a selection of better players. Having the pick of litter will naturally make you look better. There’s some irony in there, but what he said may very well be partly truthful, as most jokes are. 

Definitely wasn't a joke.  Did you laugh?

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

Where did you see this?

The Athletic.  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5357315/2024/03/20/sabres-mailbag-luukkonen-contract-jokiharju/

Quote

Otherwise, they may have to pay him between $3.5 million and $4 million on a longer contract. 

AFP puts his next deal at 3.28 for one year and 4.016 for a 3 year deal.

[dudacek]

49 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Athletic.  https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5357315/2024/03/20/sabres-mailbag-luukkonen-contract-jokiharju/

AFP puts his next deal at 3.28 for one year and 4.016 for a 3 year deal.

So some informed speculation.

[steveoath]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

Where did you see this?

Also speculating on (either merrik’s show or 32 thoughts) UPL’s camp is looking something close to Demko’s deal for 5x5. I suspect that’s an agent plant. 

[Pimlach]

On 6/20/2024 at 10:57 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

He does seem intent on bringing back Joki and Krebs.  No wonder this team doesn’t get better.  

It’s sounds that way.  I really want to see 6 new NHL Level players on this roster.   This presser gives me no confidence that big moves are coming.  

[Archie Lee]

6 hours ago, steveoath said:

Also speculating on (either merrik’s show or 32 thoughts) UPL’s camp is looking something close to Demko’s deal for 5x5. I suspect that’s an agent plant. 

That's logical to me when you look at the background's of the two players; Demko up to his signing date on that deal and UPL to today. They have quite similar trajectories.  With a Swayman signing by Boston, a $5 million cap hit would put UPL tied for 15th among goalies with Demko, Saros, Ullmark (who will all likely surpass $5 million on their next contracts), Lehner and Cal Peterson.  Oettinger and now Skinner, will get more on their next deals.  It's a risk, but something around 5x5 is not crazy to lock UPL up.

Edited June 22 by Archie Lee

[LGR4GM]

57 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

That's logical to me when you look at the background's of the two players; Demko up to his signing date on that deal and UPL to today. They have quite similar trajectories.  With a Swayman signing by Boston, a $5 million cap hit would put UPL tied for 15th among goalies with Demko, Saros, Ullmark (who will all likely surpass $5 million on their next contracts), Lehner and Cal Peterson.  Oettinger and now Skinner, will get more on their next deals.  It's a risk, but something around 5x5 is not crazy to lock UPL up.

Totally insane impo to give upl a 5 year deal. 

[kas23]

48 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Totally insane impo to give upl a 5 year deal. 

Yeah, wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card at the start of last season. I would rather give him an extra million per year if he accepts 4 years ($6M x 4). 

[Porous Five Hole]

10 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Yeah, wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card at the start of last season. I would rather give him an extra million per year if he accepts 4 years ($6M x 4). 

To me, the correct play is Arbitration.  The same path as Swayman.  Make UPL show it again.
50 games isn’t enough to hand that kind of money out.  

UPL would be an RFA after next year. If he does it again, you have enough proof to hand out a long term deal.  Or, more likely to me, to transition to Levi.  

[dudacek]

I think UPL’s agent starts at Demko’s 5x$5M

I think the Sabres start at Gustafson’s 3x$3.75

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Totally insane impo to give upl a 5 year deal. 

Not insane, but it would be a huge gamble.  Personally expect the deal to be 3 or 4 years.

If he can get beyond his one major remaining hangup - he doesn't play lights out (often, if at all) when he hasn't been annointed the clear #1 with no viable competition for that role on the roster - he could be a Vasilevskiy.  And he very well could get beyond it, but until he's actually demonstrated that he has gotten beyond it, he hasn't.  He's played at that level briefly (when Levi hasn't been around and when they were all but buried).  But when they''ve needed him to sustain it when they've actually been within striking distance of the playoffs, he couldn't get it done.  Maybe he was battling injury that was never disclosed, but there was nothing in his movement that would suggest that.  His slump seemed more mental than physical.  Whether the Sabres pay for it, or it comes out of his own pocket, he might be a great candidate for seeing Miller's sports shrink.  How many MILLIONS of $'s are on the line for him and are available to him over the next decade + should he get past that 1 final hurdle.  That seems like a no brainer.  (And if he doesn't see her, wouldn't hurt to see someone with that kind of resume.)

[Porous Five Hole]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think UPL’s agent starts at Demko’s 5x$5M

I think the Sabres start at Gustafson’s 3x$3.75

I agree. 
Demko’s season before the five year extension: 35GP, .915, 2.85, 69 career starts. 
 

Gustafson’s season before the three year extension: 39 GP, .931, 2.10, 66 career starts. 
 

UPL last year: 54 GP, .910, 2.57, 96 career starts.  
 

Jeremy Swayman when he went to arbitration: 37 GP, .920, 2.27, 82 career starts. Arbitration awarded him 3.475MM. 
 

Demko is a comp because neither he or UPL tended a playoff team that year, but UPL’s case isn’t really stronger than any of these guys. It’s why arbitration makes the most sense to me.  

[Buffalonill]

10 hours ago, steveoath said:

Also speculating on (either merrik’s show or 32 thoughts) UPL’s camp is looking something close to Demko’s deal for 5x5. I suspect that’s an agent plant. 

Hopefully buffalo isn't that dumb 

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, Pimlach said:

It’s sounds that way.  I really want to see 6 new NHL Level players on this roster.   This presser gives me no confidence that big moves are coming.  

There is certainly a chance he does something positive, such as bringing in a 2/3c, but until he actually makes a intelligent move, I can’t see why anyone would have confidence he can get it done.  Going through a presser admitting that you’re going to buyout Skinner while retaining Krebs and Joki doesn’t instill confidence that positive change is coming.  

[Archie Lee]

The off-season is time for optimism.  The Skinner buyout talks have given my optimism level a bit of a boost.  The buyout in itself won't improve the team in my view, but if the plan is to spend the savings then there is great opportunity for improvement.  I also think it sends a message to players around the league that the Sabres are serious about getting this turned around, which might have a small impact on the willingness of some to consider Buffalo as a destination. 

What I didn't like about Adams's comments in the press conference is the continued "We are open to anything" narrative. I don't expect him to layout his plan and nothing that he said indicates that there is no plan, but being open to anything is really not the positive thing that he seems to think it is. He said (as with every time he speaks) that he has spoken to every team. He goes on to say we are willing to trade #11 and/or prospects to get better and also that we are willing to move down in the draft and even that we are willing to move up in the draft. That doesn't sound like a man with a plan to me.  It sounds like a man who went to every team in the league and said he is open for business and who is hoping someone makes him an offer that will make his team better. What we really want is a man who has a clear plan to make the team better and is aggressively pursuing the actions that will make the plan come to fruition. Again, nothing he said means he isn't the latter guy, but he continues to come across, to me, like the former guy.  

[French Collection]

7 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

The off-season is time for optimism.  The Skinner buyout talks have given my optimism level a bit of a boost.  The buyout in itself won't improve the team in my view, but if the plan is to spend the savings then there is great opportunity for improvement.  I also think it sends a message to players around the league that the Sabres are serious about getting this turned around, which might have a small impact on the willingness of some to consider Buffalo as a destination. 

What I didn't like about Adams's comments in the press conference is the continued "We are open to anything" narrative. I don't expect him to layout his plan and nothing that he said indicates that there is no plan, but being open to anything is really not the positive thing that he seems to think it is. He said (as with every time he speaks) that he has spoken to every team. He goes on to say we are willing to trade #11 and/or prospects to get better and also that we are willing to move down in the draft and even that we are willing to move up in the draft. That doesn't sound like a man with a plan to me.  It sounds like a man who went to every team in the league and said he is open for business and who is hoping someone makes him an offer that will make his team better. What we really want is a man who has a clear plan to make the team better and is aggressively pursuing the actions that will make the plan come to fruition. Again, nothing he said means he isn't the latter guy, but he continues to come across, to me, like the former guy.  

Good points. You would hope he has a pecking order of 3C targets and is working the phones to get one. It’s sad to think he would only be reacting to what others are offering him. I’m sure there are a few surprise calls where a guy he hadn’t considered is available.

It is frustrating to listen to that stuff without knowing what the actual plan is. He does keep things private for the most part but that can be good or bad as you are saying.

He has had excuses before, inheriting a weak team, first year of a full rebuild, youngest team in the league, keeping costs down etc. He also mentions that he wasn’t around for all 13 years.

If they miss the playoffs this season, he will own 5 of the 14 years, 36% of the drought. He should be feeling the heat and be aware that his job is on the line. Whether he trusts the growth of his team enough to run it back or to make moves that actually improve the team he should be held responsible for the roster he has put together.

[Taro T]

38 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

The off-season is time for optimism.  The Skinner buyout talks have given my optimism level a bit of a boost.  The buyout in itself won't improve the team in my view, but if the plan is to spend the savings then there is great opportunity for improvement.  I also think it sends a message to players around the league that the Sabres are serious about getting this turned around, which might have a small impact on the willingness of some to consider Buffalo as a destination. 

What I didn't like about Adams's comments in the press conference is the continued "We are open to anything" narrative. I don't expect him to layout his plan and nothing that he said indicates that there is no plan, but being open to anything is really not the positive thing that he seems to think it is. He said (as with every time he speaks) that he has spoken to every team. He goes on to say we are willing to trade #11 and/or prospects to get better and also that we are willing to move down in the draft and even that we are willing to move up in the draft. That doesn't sound like a man with a plan to me.  It sounds like a man who went to every team in the league and said he is open for business and who is hoping someone makes him an offer that will make his team better. What we really want is a man who has a clear plan to make the team better and is aggressively pursuing the actions that will make the plan come to fruition. Again, nothing he said means he isn't the latter guy, but he continues to come across, to me, like the former guy.  

Get your frustration at the "we're open to anything" comments.  But for a guy that continually talks about honesty being a key value of his, if he does say "we have no intention whatsoever of moving up in the draft" and he stands by his values then if say the Phlyers get the inkling that Buffalo might want the same guy they want then they only have to burn enough capital to move up 2 slots to get their guy whereas they might need to burn a lot more than that to make sure the Sabres themselves don't move up the same 2 slots and still end up ahead of them.

Personally, would rather have him use that GM-speak as part of the answer and essentially tell us that he's not looking for a goalie to have Levi beat out and that Skinner is as good as gone than have him tell us he absolutely is or isn't looking at moving up in the draft and giving us nothing at all about the roster itself all the while it might all be 100% pure BS.  In other words, prefer his telling us something we could misinterpret (much like the most successful politicians do and the best Fed Chairmen do) rather than flat out lying.

[dudacek]

Personally, I would be very surprised if he hasn't identified 3C targets and aggressively pursued those that may be available. That seems like baseline competence that any one of us could and would do.

I also think he very clearly laid out his plan: get a centre, get harder to play against, rebuild the bottom six with that identity in mind. saying he's open to anything in order to make that happen is pretty much immaterial to me.

It's not a question of intent, its a question of execution.

Edited June 22 by dudacek

[French Collection]

43 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Personally, I would be very surprised if he hasn't identified 3C targets and aggressively pursued those that may be available. That seems like baseline competence that any one of us could and would do.

I also think he very clearly laid out his plan: get a centre, get harder to play against, rebuild the bottom six with that identity in mind. saying he's open to anything in order to make that happen is pretty much immaterial to me.

It's not a question of intent, its a question of execution.

Yeah, I don’t know about others, but my line in the sand is playoffs. If he can’t get there in his fifth year, come on man, you failed.

By the way, is there anyone who can ballpark how much playoff revenue TP has missed out on in 13 years?

[Thorny]

3 hours ago, French Collection said:

Yeah, I don’t know about others, but my line in the sand is playoffs. If he can’t get there in his fifth year, come on man, you failed.

By the way, is there anyone who can ballpark how much playoff revenue TP has missed out on in 13 years?

It’s the strongest line in the sand I’ve ever drawn with this team, for my sanity. And I mention it from time to time so I won’t be tempted to back down from it: if we miss the playoffs and Adams is back, I will not be.

silver lining to missing for some, I’m sure 

[Broken Ankles]

7 hours ago, French Collection said:

Yeah, I don’t know about others, but my line in the sand is playoffs. If he can’t get there in his fifth year, come on man, you failed.

By the way, is there anyone who can ballpark how much playoff revenue TP has missed out on in 13 years?

  The CBA calls for the home team to clear 65% of HRR for each game.  A blurb below about the Rangers.  I’ll defer to analytics on frequency of making the playoffs each year and games played but if you use 8/13 and an average of 5 games per year that equates to a ballpark guess of ~ $100M. If you assume more games played (like 7) and a slightly higher take per game ($3.5M) it would be ~$196M.

 “The NHL is the most gate-driven of the four biggest U.S. sports league by far, as it lacks the large TV deals the others possess. Its playoff revenue model is like the NBA’s, making a Cup run extremely lucrative.

Teams crank up ticket prices every round, while the league keeps 35% of the gate—the NHL allowed teams to keep 100% of ticket revenue during the playoffs for the COVID-impacted 2020-21 season. The New York Rangers lost in the Eastern Conference Finals last year but hosted 10 home games and generated $50 million in revenue, including concessions and merchandise. Gross playoff ticket revenues topped $200 million last season in the NHL. For small-market NHL teams, a good playoff run can often be the difference between posting an operating profit versus a loss for the season.”

https://www.sportico.com/business/commerce/2023/nba-nhl-playoffs-windfall-unlike-nfl-1234719709/
 

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 hours ago, Buffalonill said:

Hopefully buffalo isn't that dumb 

They are.