Sabres promote Jerry Forton to Assistant GM

[French Collection]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

When you pick as high as we do and as often as we do with as many extra picks as we often have one would think we'd do better after our first rounders who are obviously highly rated and not that hard to choose. So far Peterka is the only one from the Adams era that has made the team. While it is too soon to tell I think saying he's drafted well is pretty silly. 

I counted 17 first rounders on the Sabres roster last year. 20 if you count Savoie, Kulich and Rosen with their stints. There was hardly any room for anyone outside of the first round.

Mitts, Okposo, Jost, Johnson, Girgensons are former first rounders who should create a few openings, but they won’t be replaced by any Adams’ 2-7th round picks.

Novikov and/pr Komarov may get a look this season as call ups. 

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

When you pick as high as we do and as often as we do with as many extra picks as we often have one would think we'd do better after our first rounders who are obviously highly rated and not that hard to choose. So far Peterka is the only one from the Adams era that has made the team. While it is too soon to tell I think saying he's drafted well is pretty silly. 

Considering the first draft this applies to is the 2022 draft, there should be no surprise that those guys haven't made the NHL yet. Only 9 players from that draft have even played more than 10 NHL games. The lowest drafted being #54 who is also the only one outside the 1st round to play over 10 games. 

I'd argue against counting the 2021 draft due to Covid and the 2020 draft, Adams had 5 picks, 3 of which were pick 131 or later. Obviously Quinn and JJP hit which has really helped the team because if either missed you would have had a very meh draft. 

[LGR4GM]

When thinking about drafts you need to hit on your first rounders in 8-9 out of 10 drafts. Your second rounds in 5/6 out of 10 drafts. Third rounders about 2-3 out of 10 and after that if you get 2 guys every 10 drafts or so that aren't just replacement level, you've done fairly well. One of the issues we and everyone has is that we measure a successful pick by games played which is bad. There's lots of big bottom line guys drafted in the 5th who get like 250NHL games between 4-5 teams over a 5 year career but that doesn't mean they were super impactful. I think top 9 forwards and top 5 defenders are really what you need to be drafting and what I am thinking about when I created those numbers. You basically need 2.2 NHL players per draft (which is actually fake because when you get a Dahlin that counts because he won't have a 7yr career barring injury so he's the equivalent of finding 2 players because he's gonna play until he's 35 or so). This means that you need 2 players from each draft and then every 3rd or 4th draft you need a third to keep your team well stocked with cheap incoming talent. 

So 2018 you get Dahlin who again is going to play so much and have such an impact you can get away with that being your only guy. However Buffalo gets Samuelsson so there is 2 guys. 2019 you get Cozens and hopefully R Johnson so again you have 2 guys, you are doing okay. 2020 you get Quinn and Peterka and that again is 2 guys and 2 guys that are top 6 so you nice drafting. We gotta be careful now though because we haven't gotten 3 yet and we are at the 4th draft in a row. You get Owen Power and maybe Rosen and Novikov... there's a chance there for 3 and that would be perfect. 2017 is the last 3 for with Mitts, Bryson, UPL. 2022, Savoie and Kulich are def playing NHL games with Östlund and Komarov as potential too. You get 4 here, great job, you get 2, you still did good. 2023, Benson is already in the NHL because he's a top 4 guy who fell and Wahlberg has a good chance of playing NHL games with Strbak also with a good chance, again, you might have 3 but even if only 2 hit you are fine. 

That is how to really think about drafts. Did you get 2 players? Good if they are even middle 6 or 4-6 defenders, and great if they are above that (Quinn and JJP). If you get 3 players, excellent. You need to hit on your 1st round pick basically 8/9 out of 10 and 2nd rounders 5/6 out of 10. The rest if you can manage to find a guy every 3rd-ish draft, sweet, you are drafting great. You can hit AKA Bryson or you can really hit AKA Peterka, so context will always matter with these numbers. 

Edit: I want to note that trades can make that 3rd player every 3-4 drafts irrelevant and guys like Dahlin or Benson who barring injury will have 15year or more careers, also can off-set needing that 3rd guy from a draft. I think since 2022, Buffalo's drafting looks better and if Forton truly is in charge, than credit to him. The Leinonen picks really hurts what could have been just a phenomenal 2022 draft (there's 3-4 guys right there that will be NHL guys) where Buffalo could have walked away with 4-5 players. You get 5 NHL players from 1 draft, holy *****, have a beer. 

Edited June 13 by LGR4GM

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, French Collection said:

I counted 17 first rounders on the Sabres roster last year. 20 if you count Savoie, Kulich and Rosen with their stints. There was hardly any room for anyone outside of the first round.

Mitts, Okposo, Jost, Johnson, Girgensons are former first rounders who should create a few openings, but they won’t be replaced by any Adams’ 2-7th round picks.

Novikov and/pr Komarov may get a look this season as call ups. 

Yes lots of first rounders. More than anyone else. We've traded for additional ones to the ones we've drafted, and yet we're still not in the playoffs. 

So I'm not sure I'd spin this as "hardly any room for anyone outside of the first round" unless we were a good team and already competing for the cup. There's tons of room on this roster if you ask me. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Considering the first draft this applies to is the 2022 draft, there should be no surprise that those guys haven't made the NHL yet. Only 9 players from that draft have even played more than 10 NHL games. The lowest drafted being #54 who is also the only one outside the 1st round to play over 10 games. 

I'd argue against counting the 2021 draft due to Covid and the 2020 draft, Adams had 5 picks, 3 of which were pick 131 or later. Obviously Quinn and JJP hit which has really helped the team because if either missed you would have had a very meh draft. 

Well as I said, too soon to tell, and I think we agreed on the initial point that people claiming Forton has done some sort of great drafting job is kind of silly and most definitely not proven. 

I actually don't see anybody (at the moment) pushing for an NHL job. There are a few maybes, but they all have to take another step or two forward first. 

[Thorny]

On 6/13/2024 at 1:49 PM, PerreaultForever said:

Yes lots of first rounders. More than anyone else. We've traded for additional ones to the ones we've drafted, and yet we're still not in the playoffs. 

So I'm not sure I'd spin this as "hardly any room for anyone outside of the first round" unless we were a good team and already competing for the cup. There's tons of room on this roster if you ask me. 

Maybe higher first rounders? One thing you find is most teams are made up of mostly first rounders. Nature of the draft/league 

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Maybe higher first rounders? One thing you find is most teams are made up of mostly first rounders. Nature of the draft/league 

Well of course the league is mostly first rounders. The odds of making the league go way down as each round continues but finding guys outside the first round and finding role players who work hard and earn there way into the league is how you take the next step.