3C - What is best course going forward?

[Ctaeth]

On 5/28/2024 at 5:30 PM, Ctaeth said:

Tyson jost

For the record, this was a joke

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

And what I'm saying is I don't buy in to the popular theory that Adams made this trade because of Casey's looming contract.

I believe it was purely a roster trade: we had 3 top 6 centres and 3 top 4 defencemen; Adams traded from a position of strength to fill a position of weakness.

Whether Casey signs for $5M or $8M won't really affect my position on the trade much. I will judge it on whether Byram improves the D-corps more than Casey's loss hurts the middle 6 up front. And how Adams backfills the Casey hole (or doesn't) will definitely factor into my judgement.

Yes, I know that's your position. All I'm saying is when we see the contract we can pretty much surmise whether the theory was right or wrong. Not definitively (because it's a different team and he might change his mind for that reason) but pretty much. If, for example, he signs for under 6 you can toss that "popular theory" away but if he holds out for more and Colorado pays him or has difficulty meeting his high number demand you can conclude the popular theory was spot on. 

But in any event, to what we have ended up with, we have a D with too many softer puck movers and offensive D men and a hole at 3C which we need to fill or we limp into another season with an inadequate bottom 6. Both things will cost us wins imo if they stay as is.

[kas23]

4 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Intentionally so.  I think the guy's just trolling for reactions.

Remember, your talking about the same guy who swore that Adams would rather let Ryan Johnson walk away as a UFA and take a compensatory last pick in the 2nd round of the 2025 NHL draft than to sign him. 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

And what I'm saying is I don't buy in to the popular theory that Adams made this trade because of Casey's looming contract.

I believe it was purely a roster trade: we had 3 top 6 centres and 3 top 4 defencemen; Adams traded from a position of strength to fill a position of weakness.

Whether Casey signs for $5M or $8M won't really affect my position on the trade much. I will judge it on whether Byram improves the D-corps more than Casey's loss hurts the middle 6 up front. And how Adams backfills the Casey hole (or doesn't) will definitely factor into my judgement.

Very much agree, feeding into..

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

To be clear, I don't think Byram is dominant either, just very talented.

Something I'm not sure people are aware of is how productive Byram is at even-strength and how PP time colours point totals for defencemen.

His 28 ES points ranked 34th among defencemen in the NHL last year. His peers included John Carlson, Drew Doughty, Vince Dunn, Shea Theodore, Owen Power, Brock Faber and Torrey Krug. He was 8th in ES goals.

He was ahead of age peers like Seider, Sanderson, Luke Hughes and Kaiden Guhle, not to mention veterans like Chychrun, Chabot, Pietrangelo, Seth Jones and Brent Burns.

The swap as you point out made a ton of sense in theory: evaluation is in limbo because of the execution - issue with Byram was *specifically* the type of dman he seems to be - which you’ve pointed to before, as a stance others have: “I wanted a D man just not THAT one.” His offensive production is definitely reasonable but at least some portion of those still skeptical of the trade already knew this to be the case: issue is how poor his actual defence was. He produced offensively at ES but also gave it right back at ES.

Whether or not Byram improves us more than losing Mittelstadt hurts us is indeed as you point out the only way to evaluate the deal and imo the answer to that will be determined by how well Byram finds balance 

[dudacek]

36 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

. 

But in any event, to what we have ended up with, we have a D with too many softer puck movers and offensive D men and a hole at 3C which we need to fill or we limp into another season with an inadequate bottom 6. Both things will cost us wins imo if they stay as is.

I’m curious to see how the softness and offense actually manifest.

IMO, Dahlin is elite when it comes to generating offence from the back-end. Power and Byram have 1st-pairing offensive skill. Jokiharju and Clifton are more or less average and Samuelsson a non-factor. Can this group provide game-changing dangerous offence from the back line?

IMO Dahlin is also big and 1st-pairing abrasive and has the numbers to back that up. Samuelsson is a physical force and an upper-echelon defender. Clifton is net plus in this area of the game. Jokiharju is hardly punishing, but he’s squat and a good skater who seems to hold his own one-on-one. Overall, he’s kinda neutral. Byram battles and has an edge but seems kinda skinny and lost at times defending. Power has the size but not the will. Each has the tools to be better here.

I’d love to flip Jokiharju for a Will Borgen type, but I wonder if the need will be as pronounced as we think it is once we see Byram and Samuelsson in the lineup at the same time under Ruff.

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

If you think it was purely contract-driven maybe.

For me, it will be moot if the Sabres make the playoffs next year with Byram contributing as a top 4 D

For Sabrespace it will end 3 or 4 years after we stop talking about the ROR trade. 7/1/7.

FTFY.  😉 

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m curious to see how the softness and offense actually manifest.

IMO, Dahlin is elite when it comes to generating offence from the back-end. Power and Byram have 1st-pairing offensive skill. Jokiharju and Clifton are more or less average and Samuelsson a non-factor. Can this group provide game-changing dangerous offence from the back line?

IMO Dahlin is also big and 1st-pairing abrasive and has the numbers to back that up. Samuelsson is a physical force and an upper-echelon defender. Clifton is net plus in this area of the game. Jokiharju is hardly punishing, but he’s squat and a good skater who seems to hold his own one-on-one. Overall, he’s kinda neutral. Byram battles and has an edge but seems kinda skinny and lost at times defending. Power has the size but not the will. Each has the tools to be better here.

I’d love to flip Jokiharju for a Will Borgen type, but I wonder if the need will be as pronounced as we think it is once we see Byram and Samuelsson in the lineup at the same time under Ruff.

And that's the thing about Byram.  Very often, when a D joins a new team there is a serious breaking in period where he's learning how to play the new system and also learning what his partner's tendencies are.  He didn't just have being young working against him looking to be all that as Dahlin's new partner in perpetuity; he had learning Granato's system and how Dahlin (or whomever he was paired with that particular game) rolled to learn as well.

He very well could look a lot better than he did after that immediate "new team trade deadline move adrenalin rush" wore off.  Hoping so.  If he can get back to what he was in Colorado, Cozens can regain form from a year ago, and Quinn can stay healthy all year and pick back up where he should be, AND UPL can be close to what he was last year and even without the moves Adams says he's looking to make and this team is improved from last year and likely even 2 years ago.  (Though even that improvement quite likely wouldn't be enough to get back into the playoffs without a corresponding move or 4.)

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’m curious to see how the softness and offense actually manifest.

IMO, Dahlin is elite when it comes to generating offence from the back-end. Power and Byram have 1st-pairing offensive skill. Jokiharju and Clifton are more or less average and Samuelsson a non-factor. Can this group provide game-changing dangerous offence from the back line?

IMO Dahlin is also big and 1st-pairing abrasive and has the numbers to back that up. Samuelsson is a physical force and an upper-echelon defender. Clifton is net plus in this area of the game. Jokiharju is hardly punishing, but he’s squat and a good skater who seems to hold his own one-on-one. Overall, he’s kinda neutral. Byram battles and has an edge but seems kinda skinny and lost at times defending. Power has the size but not the will. Each has the tools to be better here.

I’d love to flip Jokiharju for a Will Borgen type, but I wonder if the need will be as pronounced as we think it is once we see Byram and Samuelsson in the lineup at the same time under Ruff.

Well that's the big question isn't it? What can Ruff get out of them in a proper structured system. 

I basically agree but you are kinder and more flattering in your appraisals. The entire D struggles in front of their own net. None of them, not even Dahlin, is a dominant defender in tight. Borgen would have helped. That's the type I want added as well, but I do not think it will happen. 

[Rasmus_]

Karlsson is my preference. All the way, he's a consistent veteran and shouldn't cost a huge overpayment.

[GoPuckYourself]

I think Cirelli is a pipe dream imo. Not sure why Tampa would want to trade him and especially to someone within the division. I feel Adams will just promote from within at 3C, Kulich or Krebs most likely.

I don’t see where Rosen fits on this team and still hasn’t really translated in the AHL as an ascending player. I’d like to see him dealt but I have no confidence in Adams to trade any prospects at this point until he shows otherwise.

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I think Cirelli is a pipe dream imo. Not sure why Tampa would want to trade him and especially to someone within the division. I feel Adams will just promote from within at 3C, Kulich or Krebs most likely.

I don’t see where Rosen fits on this team and still hasn’t really translated in the AHL as an ascending player. I’d like to see him dealt but I have no confidence in Adams to trade any prospects at this point until he shows otherwise.

I have my doubts about Rosen as well, but I'm curious what you mean by the bolded.

Statistically, he finished 3rd in AHL scoring this year among U21 players, ahead of several other high picks.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/ahl/stats/2023-2024?age=u21

 

 

[Archie Lee]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I have my doubts about Rosen as well, but I'm curious what you mean by the bolded.

Statistically, he finished 3rd in AHL scoring this year among U21 players, ahead of several other high picks.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/ahl/stats/2023-2024?age=u21

 

 

Looking at players picked in the 10-21 range in 2021, Rosen’s performance and development is either better than, equal to or in the neighborhood of all of them. He suffers when compared to Wyatt Johnston, but then so does almost everyone in the draft. Everyone missed on Wyatt. 

[GoPuckYourself]

On 5/31/2024 at 10:11 AM, dudacek said:

I have my doubts about Rosen as well, but I'm curious what you mean by the bolded.

Statistically, he finished 3rd in AHL scoring this year among U21 players, ahead of several other high picks.

https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/ahl/stats/2023-2024?age=u21

 

 

He's 3rd in all of the AHL? Oh under 21 players got it. That’s great for us then since we can use that as a selling point.

Edited June 1 by GoPuckYourself

[GASabresIUFAN]

The more I think about the best trade candidate for the Sabres at 3C, I keep coming back to Alex Kerfoot.

Kerfoot is a playmaking C, who plays a 200 foot game, is one of the top Pkers in the NHL, he put up 45 pts last season, is on reasonable contract with one year left (@3.5 million) and has limited trade protection (10 teams).  He even had 73 hits last season, with 76 blocks as well as 47 takeaways (to only 27 giveaways).  

Arizona is in desperate need of defenseman.  Joki for Kerfoot seems like a place to start on a deal.

Other trade candidates

I want Bennett, but I doubt Florida wants to part with him and certainly not in the division.  He had 41 pts (20 goals) this season.  I year left at 4 mill

Gourde has been talked about ad nauseum.  He has 33 pts last season and has one year left at 5.16 with a M-NTC

Cirelli has also been talked about often.  He had 45 pts last season and has 7 years left at 6.25.  I doubt TB wants to trade him either and certainly not in the division.  I think the $ and term make him a non-starter for Adams.

Another very interesting trade prospect is Nic Roy from LV.  He had 41 pts last year and has 3 years left @ 3 per season.  LV needs to shed salary, but I think they'd like to move other players like Karlsson and Shea Theodore before Roy.  Roy would be a good fit here

Williams Karlsson - LV needs to move salary and he is coming off a good rebound year with 30 goals and 60 points.  I'd love to see KA get him.  However he has a M-NTC.  Not sure why he'd waive it to come to Buffalo.  He has 3 year's left at 5.9 per season.

A note a LV.  Chandler Stephenson is moving on. Their top 2 C are Eichel and Hertl. They also have rookie Brendan Brisson who is going to earn a job in LV next season.  Odds are that at least one center is going to be moved.

What would you pay for Kerfoot or Roy?   

Edited June 4 by GASabresIUFAN

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The more I think about the best trade candidate for the Sabres at 3C, I keep coming back to Alex Kerfoot.

Kerfoot is a playmaking C, who plays a 200 foot game, is one of the top Pkers in the NHL, he put up 45 pts last season, is on reasonable contract with one year left (@3.5 million) and has no trade protection.  He even had 73 hits last season, with 76 blocks as well as 47 takeaways (to only 27 giveaways).  

Arizona is in desperate need of defenseman.  Joki for Kerfoot seems like a place to start on a deal.

Other trade candidates

I want Bennett, but I doubt Florida wants to part with him and certainly not in the division.  He had 41 pts (20 goals) this season.  I year left at 4 mill

Gourde has been talked about ad nauseum.  He has 33 pts last season and has one year left at 5.16 with a M-NTC

Cirelli has also been talked about often.  He had 45 pts last season and has 7 years left at 6.25.  I doubt TB wants to trade him either and certainly not in the division.  I think the $ and term make him a non-starter for Adams.

Another very interesting trade prospect is Nic Roy from LV.  He had 41 pts last year and has 3 years left @ 3 per season.  LV needs to shed salary, but I think they'd like to move other players like Karlsson and Shea Theodore before Roy.  Roy would be a good fit here

Williams Karlsson - LV needs to move salary and he is coming off a good rebound year with 30 goals and 60 points.  I'd love to see KA get him.  However he has a M-NTC.  Not sure why he'd waive it to come to Buffalo.  He has 3 year's left at 5.9 per season.

A note a LV.  Chandler Stephenson is moving on. Their top 2 C are Eichel and Hertl. They also have rookie Brendan Brisson who is going to earn a job in LV next season.  Odds are that at least one center is going to be moved.

What would you pay for Kerfoot or Roy?   

This is a terrific post that has a lot of thought behind it. Your list of players who potentially can be targeted is encouraging that options will be available. Is KA creative enough and has the fortitude to act? I hope so.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, JohnC said:

This is a terrific post that has a lot of thought behind it. Your list of players who potentially can be targeted is encouraging that options will be available. Is KA creative enough and has the fortitude to act? I hope so.  

The problem is does Adams even recognize the need?  Will he try to default to Krebs, Kulich or Savoie, or will he finally grasp the obvious and make a necessary move to bolster the center position?

 

[JohnC]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The problem is does Adams even recognize the need?  Will he try to default to Krebs, Kulich or Savoie, or will he finally grasp the obvious and make a necessary move to bolster the center position?

 

I think he has to make moves for the simple reason that spots are open with departures such as Olofosson and Okposo. There are spots that need to be filled. Even if he is inclined to stick to his inclination of staying within the system, there are vacancies that need to be addressed. 

There is an interesting consideration that should be noted with your Savoie mention. Could he be next year's roster surprise like Benson was this past season? 

[dudacek]

29 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The problem is does Adams even recognize the need?  Will he try to default to Krebs, Kulich or Savoie, or will he finally grasp the obvious and make a necessary move to bolster the center position?

 

 

”We’ve been without a 3C for more than 2 months now! What the hell is the matter with that guy!” 😄

Ive got interest in all your suggestions, but from that group I’d look hardest at Roy. Bennett and Cirelli are pipe dreams, Kerfoot is too soft, Stevenson and Karlsson too pricey.

A $3 million 35-point guy who plays hard and with structure is my sweet spot.

Edited June 3 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

”We’ve been without a 3C for more than 2 months now! What the hell is the matter with that guy!”

You mean the same guy who failed to get adequate goaltenders for 3 years and just traded his 3C/2C without an adequate internal replacement.  
Given KA’s history, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to question his ability to recognize and properly fill roster needs.

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The problem is does Adams even recognize the need?  Will he try to default to Krebs, Kulich or Savoie, or will he finally grasp the obvious and make a necessary move to bolster the center position?

 

We already have our answer to this.

- Adams will (probably properly) evaluate the needs

- He will come to a value determination re: what he’s willing yo pay to address said needs. The answer to this question isn’t determined by value to the Sabres this season, it’s measured by a comparison of the assets in a vacuum: all avenues considered.

- He will scourge the market to see if teams are willing to meet his prices and if they aren’t, he will retain his assets 

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You mean the same guy who failed to get adequate goaltenders for 3 years and just traded his 3C/2C without an adequate internal replacement.  
Given KA’s history, I think it’s perfectly reasonable to question his ability to recognize and properly fill roster needs.

It’s about willingness, not ability imo

More about strategy, less about evaluation 

[GASabresIUFAN]

When I first started this thread there really didn't seem like many reasonable choices for the 3C role.  However, people here and the media keep bringing up good possibilities that are giving me hope for a quality 3C addition this summer. I'm also glad we are moving away from the Gourde idea.

The upper tier ideas I really like are Karlsson and Eriksson Ek.  The stumbling block with Karlsson is his M-NTC, but maybe that's solvable.  Eriksson Ek would be a very expensive get.  I like both of these ideas over Cirelli.  I also think Mohanan and Duchene would be good acquisitions, but I doubt they'd sign in Buffalo.  Stephenson is also out there, but I doubt KA wants to invest in a long-term deal for a 30+ player. 

In the second tier - all of Kerfoot, Wennberg, Bennett, Laughton, and Roy look like good fits as well with Roy having the most upside beyond his 40 pts.  Bennett might add some important leadership.

I also don't think we can discount the possibility of a UFA like Roslovic or Domi.

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

When I first started this thread there really didn't seem like many reasonable choices for the 3C role.  However, people here and the media keep bringing up good possibilities that are giving me hope for a quality 3C addition this summer. I'm also glad we are moving away from the Gourde idea.

The upper tier ideas I really like are Karlsson and Eriksson Ek.  The stumbling block with Karlsson is his M-NTC, but maybe that's solvable.  Eriksson Ek would be a very expensive get.  I like both of these ideas over Cirelli.  I also think Mohanan and Duchene would be good acquisitions, but I doubt they'd sign in Buffalo.  Stephenson is also out there, but I doubt KA wants to invest in a long-term deal for a 30+ player. 

In the second tier - all of Kerfoot, Wennberg, Bennett, Laughton, and Roy look like good fits as well with Roy having the most upside beyond his 40 pts.  Bennett might add some important leadership.

I also don't think we can discount the possibility of a UFA like Roslovic or Domi.

Cut out Laughton who legitimately is a trainwreck defensively in a defensive system.

Gourde isn't a bad option for a 1 year bridge

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Cut out Laughton who legitimately is a trainwreck defensively in a defensive system.

Gourde isn't a bad option for a 1 year bridge

If he is so bad defensively why has every Philly coach since 2017 used him about 58% of the time with D zone starts? If he is so bad defensively why was he 3rd on Philly with nearly 140 minutes of PK time?  

I’m not saying he’s Bergeron or Barkov.  Honestly, I don’t know how good or bad he is, but his usage by Philly over the years is not reflective of a bad defensive player.  

Is Laughton my favorite choice for 3C?  No, he’s not even in the top 10.  I don’t like the suggested trade either, but if we end up with him, on a better deal, he is an upgrade over Krebs and a solid bridge until a prospect is ready for the role.  At 3 mill per season he is a bargain choice and could be a solid 4th liner if Savoie or Kulich prove ready sooner than later.  

Again, this isn’t my ideal choice, but I understand the logic behind the suggestion.

 

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If he is so bad defensively why has every Philly coach since 2017 used him about 58% of the time with D zone starts? If he is so bad defensively why was he 3rd on Philly with nearly 140 minutes of PK time?  

I’m not saying he’s Bergeron or Barkov.  Honestly, I don’t know how good or bad he is, but his usage by Philly over the years is not reflective of a bad defensive player.  

Is Laughton my favorite choice for 3C?  No, he’s not even in the top 10.  I don’t like the suggested trade either, but if we end up with him, on a better deal, he is an upgrade over Krebs and a solid bridge until a prospect is ready for the role.  At 3 mill per season he is a bargain choice and could be a solid 4th liner if Savoie or Kulich prove ready sooner than later.  

Again, this isn’t my ideal choice, but I understand the logic behind the suggestion.

 

When one looks at his possession stats he's a player who was once good who isn't anymore but is still playing the same role.

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If he is so bad defensively why has every Philly coach since 2017 used him about 58% of the time with D zone starts? If he is so bad defensively why was he 3rd on Philly with nearly 140 minutes of PK time?  

I’m not saying he’s Bergeron or Barkov.  Honestly, I don’t know how good or bad he is, but his usage by Philly over the years is not reflective of a bad defensive player.  

Is Laughton my favorite choice for 3C?  No, he’s not even in the top 10.  I don’t like the suggested trade either, but if we end up with him, on a better deal, he is an upgrade over Krebs and a solid bridge until a prospect is ready for the role.  At 3 mill per season he is a bargain choice and could be a solid 4th liner if Savoie or Kulich prove ready sooner than later.  

Again, this isn’t my ideal choice, but I understand the logic behind the suggestion.

 

"bridge" is the operative word.

I think we have to accept that we won't get the ideal choice in every spot (and hopefully KA realizes this too) but we need to make the moves we can make to make this roster a playoff contender this year. 

We need to add veterans and create internal competition and also give the proper time for the kids to fully develop. We have to end the development year stuff and the learning on the fly which should only be done out of injury necessity (if that happens).

Winning, should be all that matters this year. If Laughton makes us better (and he would) and he's the best we can do then do it.