Sabres Defense - Current Pairing Ideas and What Moves Should Adams Make to Enhance the Group

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Your “bottom 3rd” is a cherry-picked stat not necessarily reflective of the players in question, but Dahlin Power Mule Clifton Byram (and Jokiharju?) certainly have a lot to prove next year.

I never said bottom 3.  I said we have 5 D under contract and we'll add 2-3 more. 

However, the guys have a ton to prove.  You would think an organization that committed to defense spending wise would see results on the ice.  Sadly we don't.  Joki needs to go.  His is a 3rd line D and we have plenty of those.  We need to allocate money elsewhere.

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

Why don’t you enlighten us all on how you would Construct it properly.

From an equity standpoint, the forwards should cost about 59% of the cap, D 32% and G 9% on the roster of 13F, 7D and 2G if you allocate cap based on % of players on the roster.

Also is goes back to results.  If you are spending over average on the D you need results to justify the expenditure.  Also, if you way over spend on any one position you end up like Toronto.  They spent over 70% of their cap last year on forwards and had a great offense.  However, the lack of investment in defense and goaltending cost them in the end. 

Part of this equation if management needs to pay the right players.  Investing $4 million a year in Joki, who should be a 3rd pairing D is a mistake. 

 

Edited May 25 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

19 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Because he's always hurt.

 

We all know defense is a brutal position to play, and I think the 7/8 are pretty important.  I can see upgrading (Roy in place of Joker sounds good), but I also like Bryson and Johnson being ready to step in when the injuries happen.  I kind of hope we can keep them both.  I don't think we've seen Johnson's upside yet, and Bryson proved in his late season stint that he's finally grown into the steady defenseman role.

Johnson is still waivers exempt. He can easily start next season in Rochester.  Bryson's Q offer is 1.9 million.  Are you really investing that much is a 7/8 D?  With Johnson able to be recalled and Novikov developing nicely, I don't think keeping Bryson is worth it.  KA probably re-signs him anyway for 2 years at 1.5 per season.

[Doohicksie]

If they sign Bryson I would hope they do it with less than the qualifying amount.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I never said bottom 3.  I said we have 5 D under contract and we'll add 2-3 more. 

However, the guys have a ton to prove.  You would think an organization that committed to defense spending wise would see results on the ice.  Sadly we don't.  Joki needs to go.  His is a 3rd line D and we have plenty of those.  We need to allocate money elsewhere.

From an equity standpoint, the forwards should cost about 59% of the cap, D 32% and G 9% on the roster of 13F, 7D and 2G if you allocate cap based on % of players on the roster.

Also is goes back to results.  If you are spending over average on the D you need results to justify the expenditure.  Also, if you way over spend on any one position you end up like Toronto.  They spent over 70% of their cap last year on forwards and had a great offense.  However, the lack of investment in defense and goaltending cost them in the end. 

Part of this equation if management needs to pay the right players.  Investing $4 million a year in Joki, who should be a 3rd pairing D is a mistake. 

 

First bold was a reference to you saying they were a bottom 1/3rd  defence in the league, which from your past posting I took to be a reference to expected goals against.

That's a useful stat, but it is also a team stat that measures chance prevention, not a measure of how effective your defencemen are at their all-around games. It's kinda like saying they are a top half defence in the league because of their team Corsi numbers

Also, the numbers for this past season reflect 18 games of Byram and 41 of Mule, two players expected to play top 4 minutes in the coming season, so not exactly apples to apples.

Second bold is absolutely a great point, but the flip side is also true. Paying your top 2 centres just $7M each long-term and 5 of your top 6 forwards only a combined $20M right now allows you to spend more on your D. And the hope is clearly that Cozens/Thompson/Power/Dahlin provide a useful artificial cap moving forward when the cap rises and contracts are needed for Byram, Peterka, Tuch and Quinn — similar to what the Bruins did with Bergeron and their other leaders all those years.

People talk about what kind of influence Ventura has or doesn't have on coaching or pro scouting decisions. I wonder how much influence his department has had on contracts and roster makeup.

The Sabres braintrust has clearly decided their key players are Dahlin and Power and their key position is the blueline and invested accordingly.

Edited May 25 by dudacek

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Johnson is still waivers exempt. He can easily start next season in Rochester.  Bryson's Q offer is 1.9 million.  Are you really investing that much is a 7/8 D?  With Johnson able to be recalled and Novikov developing nicely, I don't think keeping Bryson is worth it.  KA probably re-signs him anyway for 2 years at 1.5 per season.

Having depth on a unit is not something to lament. It's a good situation to have. Last year, Samuelsson was out for much of the season. Bryson didn't fill in for Samuelsson, but his loss did provide more minutes for Bryson. And when players are dealing with nagging injuries having depth provides you the cushion to temporarily fill in until the player sufficiently recovers. Bryson is a utility player who at best is a fourth pairing player. I thought last year that he played well when on the ice. Although he's never going to garner heavy duty minutes, he can play a utility role. I say the same thing about Ryan Johnson. Even if he starts off in Rochester, when the inevitable injury happens, he can move up the ranks without being a major liability. 

It's taken the organization a long time to build a quality blue line unit. We seem to have that now. This roster still has a number of needs to address, mostly on the lower lines. If KA re-signs Bryson for two years at the AAV that you conjectured at, that would be fine with me. 

[xzy89c1]

No place for ryan johnson now or in near future. Samuelson needs his minutes reduced. He is not someone you want on ice for 25 minutes due to lack of offense. Power has a big year ahead of him. Needs to show growth in all aspects next year. Too many d zone lapses and his lack of any aggression is a real problem. Signing him that early to a big contract was dumb then and dumb now. Our top 2 d are Dahlin and Byrum. They can play together sometimes and apart depending on situation. Other teams will need to prepare for both. 

Interesting how dman are most important in todays game. Used to be load up on forwards and you can get away with one good dman and these grinder types. Todays nhl need dman to jump up in play. 

In ideal world we trade johnson, Joker for help on forward and get back or sign some more rugged types for PK and general nastiness. Would be a huge win if Dahlin did not have to be on first PK every time. Reduce his minutes a bit and let him kill second half so he can save energy for offense. 

We were easiest team to play against in league last year. Will not make playoffs without fixing that. 

[Flashsabre]

35 minutes ago, xzy89c1 said:

No place for ryan johnson now or in near future. Samuelson needs his minutes reduced. He is not someone you want on ice for 25 minutes due to lack of offense. Power has a big year ahead of him. Needs to show growth in all aspects next year. Too many d zone lapses and his lack of any aggression is a real problem. Signing him that early to a big contract was dumb then and dumb now. Our top 2 d are Dahlin and Byrum. They can play together sometimes and apart depending on situation. Other teams will need to prepare for both. 

Interesting how dman are most important in todays game. Used to be load up on forwards and you can get away with one good dman and these grinder types. Todays nhl need dman to jump up in play. 

In ideal world we trade johnson, Joker for help on forward and get back or sign some more rugged types for PK and general nastiness. Would be a huge win if Dahlin did not have to be on first PK every time. Reduce his minutes a bit and let him kill second half so he can save energy for offense. 

We were easiest team to play against in league last year. Will not make playoffs without fixing that. 

Move out Joker and Bryson. Find a #4RD to play with Power (Tanev, Cernak, Demelo, Roy, Myers) type.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 5/30/2024 at 12:10 PM, Flashsabre said:

Move out Joker and Bryson. Find a #4RD to play with Power (Tanev, Cernak, Demelo, Roy, Myers) type.

What about UFA Matt Dumba?  Physical, kills penalties, blocks shots, solid skater with a big shot.    Projection is 3 years at 3 mill per season.  

I am also a interested in trading for Alex Kerfoot and signing Michael Amadio.  Kerfoot has one year left at 3.5.  (also a M-NTC, but does he want to stay in Utah?).  He is a playmaking center who I believe is a pretty solid 2 way player.  Utah doesn't need picks (10 2nd rd picks in the next 3 seasons). They need players.  They have no D under contract for next season. None!. Joki might be a very solid addition there.  Samuelsson as well.  No idea what a deal would look like, but maybe Joki for Kerfoot straight up?  By the way, Kerfoot was one of the leading PK centers last season in TOI.  

Amadio is a bit of a late bloomer with a some size at 6'1 204.  He's had back to back 27 point seasons and has contributed in the playoffs.  I'm not sure LV can afford to keep him with a projected 3 year 3.2 per season deal.  

I'd also like to make a run at Blueger for 2-3 year deal.  He hits, can create, and wins draws.  I think he'd be a perfect fit for an elevated 4th line. I'd give him a 2-3 year deal at 2.75 per season.  

JJP Tnt Tuch

Benson Cozens Quinn

Skinner Kerfoot Amadio

Krebs Blueger Greenway

 

Samuelsson Dahlin

Power Dumba

Byram Clifton

UPL Levi

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/5196088

[thewookie1]

16 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What about UFA Matt Dumba?  Physical, kills penalties, blocks shots, solid skater with a big shot.    Projection is 3 years at 3 mill per season.  

I am also a interested in trading for Alex Kerfoot and signing Michael Amadio.  Kerfoot has one year left at 3.5.  (also a M-NTC, but does he want to stay in Utah?).  He is a playmaking center who I believe is a pretty solid 2 way player.  Utah doesn't need picks (10 2nd rd picks in the next 3 seasons). They need players.  They have no D under contract for next season. None!. Joki might be a very solid addition there.  Samuelsson as well.  No idea what a deal would look like, but maybe Joki for Kerfoot straight up?  By the way, Kerfoot was one of the leading PK centers last season in TOI.  

Amadio is a bit of a late bloomer with a some size at 6'1 204.  He's had back to back 27 point seasons and has contributed in the playoffs.  I'm not sure LV can afford to keep him with a projected 3 year 3.2 per season deal.  

I'd also like to make a run at Blueger for 2-3 year deal.  He hits, can create, and wins draws.  I think he'd be a perfect fit for an elevated 4th line. I'd give him a 2-3 year deal at 2.75 per season.  

JJP Tnt Tuch

Benson Cozens Quinn

Skinner Kerfoot Amadio

Krebs Blueger Greenway

 

Samuelsson Dahlin

Power Dumba

Byram Clifton

UPL Levi

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/5196088

I’ve read Dumba is just shot at this point

 

Zero interest in Amadio with those contract numbers. Same goes for Blueger.

 

Edited June 2 by thewookie1

[SabreFinn]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What about UFA Matt Dumba?  Physical, kills penalties, blocks shots, solid skater with a big shot.    Projection is 3 years at 3 mill per season.  

I am also a interested in trading for Alex Kerfoot and signing Michael Amadio.  Kerfoot has one year left at 3.5.  (also a M-NTC, but does he want to stay in Utah?).  He is a playmaking center who I believe is a pretty solid 2 way player.  Utah doesn't need picks (10 2nd rd picks in the next 3 seasons). They need players.  They have no D under contract for next season. None!. Joki might be a very solid addition there.  Samuelsson as well.  No idea what a deal would look like, but maybe Joki for Kerfoot straight up?  By the way, Kerfoot was one of the leading PK centers last season in TOI.  

Amadio is a bit of a late bloomer with a some size at 6'1 204.  He's had back to back 27 point seasons and has contributed in the playoffs.  I'm not sure LV can afford to keep him with a projected 3 year 3.2 per season deal.  

I'd also like to make a run at Blueger for 2-3 year deal.  He hits, can create, and wins draws.  I think he'd be a perfect fit for an elevated 4th line. I'd give him a 2-3 year deal at 2.75 per season.  

JJP Tnt Tuch

Benson Cozens Quinn

Skinner Kerfoot Amadio

Krebs Blueger Greenway

 

Samuelsson Dahlin

Power Dumba

Byram Clifton

UPL Levi

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/5196088

Thumbs up for signing Amadio. I think a Jokiharju for Kerfoot could be a deal that works for both. Those two with Skinner is an interesting mix. Dumba on the second pair is where I hesitate.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I’ve read Dumba is just shot at this point

Certainly could be.  Played nearly 20 minutes a night for TB & AZ last season.  Larsson is probably a better choice, but I was looking for someone we didn't have to trade assets.  

[SabreFinn]

The Sabres pairings depend totally on Samuelsson, him playing 70-75 games at his best together with Dahlin and Power and Byram on the second gives an ok defense. I would like to have different balanced second pair but it works. The question is how much back up we need in case Samuelsson isn't healthy?? Or do we see him as a third pair guy until he has proof he is back in shape?

[LGR4GM]

Tbh, I think Quinn and Muel playing 70+ games will be a major factor to success this season. 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Tbh, I think Quinn and Muel playing 70+ games will be a major factor to success this season. 

I’ve been waiting for Quinn highlights since his draft. He has just teased us with his potential. This is an important year for him to show what he can do. I think he can put up similar numbers to Cozens breakout season if he plays the whole season.

Mule playing 70+ would provide stability on the D corps and show us where he slots in long term.

[Pimlach]

This defense could be very good with Dahlin continuing to be a star.  Power hopefully taking a step forward. 

Byram - I am not sure about yet, need to see more but what I saw was a hot start followed by inconsistent defensive play.  I still don't know what Byram really is yet but Adams thinks he can pair with Dahlin, so pencil that in for now.  

For the second pair it's Power and who?  I prefer they bring in a solid veteran, a strong and more defensive minded type of RHD for the top 4, and not count on a healthy Samuelsson.   We need a guy that hits people and has a physical aspect to his game back there.  Muel has never done this consistently, and if Muel can ever give us 70 games that is a bonus. 

We should not count on Muel though, he is likely a very solid third pair guy.  

Clifton should be perfect for the 3rd pair.   The only physical guy back there, but he is a middle weight. 

Watch the playoffs, we need more strength and toughness on the backline.  We have to add another vet.  

We have lots of candidate for spot #7, plus we can use Rochester to give us the 8th D with Johnson a likely candidate. 

I am very ready to move on from Joker and Bryson - neither brings the complimentary skills that are lacking on our defense.

 

Edited June 2 by Pimlach

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Tbh, I think Quinn and Muel playing 70+ games will be a major factor to success this season. 

Two years ago we got:

• Breakout/career years from Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens, Mittelstadt, Olofsson and Dahlin
• And disappointing years from nobody of consequence.

Last year we got:

• Breakout/career years from Luukkonen and Peterka
• And disappointing years from Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens, Olofsson, Quinn, Samuelsson and - to a lesser extent - Power.

Of course I want Adams to make adds, but in my opinion the success or failure of the coming year rests largely on what versions we get of players already on the roster.

Thompson, Cozens, Quinn and Power in particular.

[Pimlach]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Two years ago we got:

• Breakout/career years from Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens, Mittelstadt, Olofsson and Dahlin
• And disappointing years from nobody of consequence.

Last year we got:

• Breakout/career years from Luukkonen and Peterka
• And disappointing years from Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens, Olofsson, Quinn, Samuelsson and - to a lesser extent - Power.

Of course I want Adams to make adds, but in my opinion the success or failure of the coming year rests largely on what versions we get of players already on the roster.

Thompson, Cozens, Quinn and Power in particular.

True.  But when you watch the playoffs you see we are missing a lot that can only added it with trades and UFAs.    

 

[Thorner]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

Of course I want Adams to make adds, but in my opinion the success or failure of the coming year rests largely on what versions we get of players already on the roster.

Thompson, Cozens, Quinn and Power in particular.

Honestly, I think the versions of those players we get will arguably be largely determined by whether or not we, as a franchise, imbibe the mindset of a team that is going to make the necessary additions to the roster it needs because we believe making the playoffs to be an urgent matter.

Did Adams not speak at the end of season conference about how he had early on that sense things weren’t right when it came to the mindset of the players? Adams didn’t deny there was a complacency there? We saw this play out in real time already.
 

Imo there’s pretty strong evidence that mindset was a reflection of the GM’s nonchalant approach to the offseason. I suppose that outside additions aren’t just necessary but vital to the success of the larger portion of the roster we are of course relying on even more. 

Imo it’s not a “these additions won’t matter if the core doesn’t respond anyways” situation, it’s a “the core isn’t gong to have a chance without the proper approach this offseason, anyways.” situation.

A good GM here lays the chess board for success 

[LGR4GM]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

Two years ago we got:

• Breakout/career years from Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens, Mittelstadt, Olofsson and Dahlin
• And disappointing years from nobody of consequence.

Last year we got:

• Breakout/career years from Luukkonen and Peterka
• And disappointing years from Thompson, Skinner, Tuch, Cozens, Olofsson, Quinn, Samuelsson and - to a lesser extent - Power.

Of course I want Adams to make adds, but in my opinion the success or failure of the coming year rests largely on what versions we get of players already on the roster.

Thompson, Cozens, Quinn and Power in particular.

Quinn was better than Peterka, he just wasn't healthy long enough. 

[...]

52 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Quinn was better than Peterka, he just wasn't healthy long enough. 

I'm so afraid he may suffer from Connolly-itis. I hope that's not the case because he could otherwise be the next concept-of-Connolly.

[nfreeman]

I too think having Quinn and Muel each playing 70+ games would help quite a bit.  But each has a substantial enough injury history that it doesn’t seem very likely.  

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

I too think having Quinn and Muel each playing 70+ games would help quite a bit.  But each has a substantial enough injury history that it doesn’t seem very likely.  

But somebody is injured just about every year, every team. Remember when everybody at the beginning of the year said Tampa was done because Vasilevsky was injured? Every team has injuries to overcome every year unless they have freakish luck. This year it was Quinn and Muel, next year it's how knows? If UPL and Dahlin had been injured we'd have been totally screwed. We need depth and balance and then these things don't matter. 

[Archie Lee]

The thing that we seem to generally want the most is, I think, the most unlikely to happen. That is, Joker is moved out in a trade and a more gritty veteran R shot defender (experience, size, truculence) is brought in to pair with one of the big 3 offensive lefties. I see little chance this will happen. I do think it is possible Joker is traded for a pick and/or a 4C type, but if he is moved I think it is likely with the intent for Samuelsson to play in that 4th top-four spot (so, four lefties) and we will see Johnson/Bryson/Clifton on the 3rd pair. 

Though not my first choice, I would not shudder at Joker being re-signed. I do think there is a chance we see Dahlin/Power on pair one this year. A not oft mentioned combo for the 2nd and 3rd pair could be Sammy/Joker and Byram/Clifton. Label them pair 2 or 3 as you see fit. I think with another year experience, better structure, average to good goaltending and improved offence, this D would be more than good enough. 

Edited June 3 by Archie Lee

[Pimlach]

12 hours ago, Thorny said:

Honestly, I think the versions of those players we get will arguably be largely determined by whether or not we, as a franchise, imbibe the mindset of a team that is going to make the necessary additions to the roster it needs because we believe making the playoffs to be an urgent matter.

Did Adams not speak at the end of season conference about how he had early on that sense things weren’t right when it came to the mindset of the players? Adams didn’t deny there was a complacency there? We saw this play out in real time already.
 

Imo there’s pretty strong evidence that mindset was a reflection of the GM’s nonchalant approach to the offseason. I suppose that outside additions aren’t just necessary but vital to the success of the larger portion of the roster we are of course relying on even more. 

Imo it’s not a “these additions won’t matter if the core doesn’t respond anyways” situation, it’s a “the core isn’t gong to have a chance without the proper approach this offseason, anyways.” situation.

A good GM here lays the chess board for success 

Which is why fringe players like Girgs, Jost, Robinson, Joker, Bryson, should be replaced.   

They have cap space, it cannot be that hard to improve this team.   

[Carmel Corn]

34 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Which is why fringe players like Girgs, Jost, Robinson, Joker, Bryson, should be replaced.   

They have cap space, it cannot be that hard to improve this team.   

Unfortunately, I almost expect 3 of those 5 names to be back on new deals (Girgs, Joker and Bryson).  Not at all what I want, but I don’t trust Pegula and Adams.