Sabres Defense - Current Pairing Ideas and What Moves Should Adams Make to Enhance the Group

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

On that note I find myself wondering what Sam Ventura and his dept are contributing to the building of this team. I haven’t seen a lot of moves that have pointed to strong analytics being involved atleast at the pro level. Is Adams not leaning on them as much? Be interesting to see how the summer plays out.

I don’t think they listen to Ventura at all; not on trades, on line pairings; not on D pairings.  The only exception maybe draft picks. 
 

8 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Already more thought put into the subject than KA will put into it all summer.

Again... The default position should be that there is no plan or process at work until proven otherwise.

Just stay young, stay (relatively cheap), sell hope, hope for the best and EEE.

 

There is very good chance that Adams re-signs Joki and Bryson and concentrates on spending on forwards. Johnson then starts in the minors.

The pairings would be (somewhat based on xGF from last season)

Dahlin Jokiharju - xGF% 56.22

Power Samuelson - xGF% 56.36

Byram Clifton - xGF% 71.05 (limited sample size)

Bryson

 

 

Edited May 24 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don’t think they listen to Ventura at all; not on trades, on line pairings; not on D pairings.  The only exception maybe draft picks. 
 

There is very good chance that Adams re-signs Joki and Bryson and concentrates on spending on forwards. Johnson then starts in the minors.

The pairings would be (somewhat based on xGF from last season)

Dahlin Jokiharju - xGF% 56.22

Power Samuelson - xGF% 56.36

Byram Clifton - xGF% 71.05 (limited sample size)

Bryson

 

Bryson

We know that Granato didn't. 

[Archie Lee]

29 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I don’t think they listen to Ventura at all; not on trades, on line pairings; not on D pairings.  The only exception maybe draft picks. 
 

There is very good chance that Adams re-signs Joki and Bryson and concentrates on spending on forwards. Johnson then starts in the minors.

The pairings would be (somewhat based on xGF from last season)

Dahlin Jokiharju - xGF% 56.22

Power Samuelson - xGF% 56.36

Byram Clifton - xGF% 71.05 (limited sample size)

Bryson

 

Bryson

I don't think we have any idea the degree to which they do or don't listen to the analytics department.  Every team, it seems, now has their own models that they use that are different from the public models (why have an analytics department if you can just subscribe to a few websites).  Maybe we did largely follow what our analytics department recommended.  How would we know?

[Weave]

3 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I don't think we have any idea the degree to which they do or don't listen to the analytics department.  Every team, it seems, now has their own models that they use that are different from the public models (why have an analytics department if you can just subscribe to a few websites).  Maybe we did largely follow what our analytics department recommended.  How would we know?

Yup.  I bet the info they use looks nothing like the info generally available to fans.

[Archie Lee]

19 minutes ago, Weave said:

Yup.  I bet the info they use looks nothing like the info generally available to fans.

And, it's not used to identify the best players...it's used to identify the best players that we can afford and who will come to Buffalo.  I don't think the analytics department said to Adams that he needed to go out and get Stillman.  More likely is that we needed a D-man and the analytics department said if all you are prepared to pay is Josh Bloom and $1.3 million in cap, then Stillman is about as good as you are going to get.

Edited May 24 by Archie Lee

[French Collection]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Hold up. While I understand what is being said here, this is incorrect terminology. Rasmus Dahlin is a not a RHD, he is a LHD who can play on the right side. LHD and RHD denote how a player shoots, IE. they are left or right handed. So Dahlin playing on the right side with Power on the left looks like this

Power LHD - Dahlin LHD 

You don't change his handedness because he is on the right side, he is still a left handed defender, he isn't changing how he holds the stick. Sorry it is imprecise and bugs me. 

I don’t think I was saying Dahlin is a RHD. I know he is a LHD, I was saying that he has a comfort level on the RH side.

I doubt KA goes out and gets a 1st pairing RHD so Dahlin, Power, Byram or Mule will probably have to play on the RH side as a left shooting Dman.

[GoPuckYourself]

13 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

This is great. Absolutely wonderful. Couldn't agree more except for one little thing. 

7.5 million for your bottom pairing D? 31 million plus whatever you pay Pesce for your 6 D (it would take like 8 million to get him to come to Buffalo). It's not really sustainable. 

No way is he commanding 8M, dude was making 4.03M and has an offensive output of 13 pts, 6.5M tops imo. Also I'd be fine dealing Clifton or Muel, neither would be as impactful as Pesce again imo.

[PerreaultForever]

7 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

No way is he commanding 8M, dude was making 4.03M and has an offensive output of 13 pts, 6.5M tops imo. Also I'd be fine dealing Clifton or Muel, neither would be as impactful as Pesce again imo.

I'm not saying he commands 8 million, I'm saying it might take 8 million to get him to consider coming to Buffalo. 

Clifton shouldn't be making anything over 2 and yet we pay him 3.3 I think it is. There's a premium you need to add to get most guys to come here. There may be exceptions, but I suspect most players would want a lot to consider us. 

In any event even at 6.5 it's too much money tied up in D for cap sustainability. Byram will be up for a raise as well remember. 

[GoPuckYourself]

23 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm not saying he commands 8 million, I'm saying it might take 8 million to get him to consider coming to Buffalo. 

Clifton shouldn't be making anything over 2 and yet we pay him 3.3 I think it is. There's a premium you need to add to get most guys to come here. There may be exceptions, but I suspect most players would want a lot to consider us. 

In any event even at 6.5 it's too much money tied up in D for cap sustainability. Byram will be up for a raise as well remember. 

I get what you mean now. I would bail on both Muel and Clifton for Pesce but thats me, get some nice young bottom pair dmen. 

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, French Collection said:

I don’t think I was saying Dahlin is a RHD. I know he is a LHD, I was saying that he has a comfort level on the RH side.

I doubt KA goes out and gets a 1st pairing RHD so Dahlin, Power, Byram or Mule will probably have to play on the RH side as a left shooting Dman.

No No,  I know you know that. Was the semantics of writing rd v rhd you know? 

[French Collection]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

No No,  I know you know that. Was the semantics of writing rd v rhd you know? 

No problem.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

I don't think we have any idea the degree to which they do or don't listen to the analytics department.  Every team, it seems, now has their own models that they use that are different from the public models (why have an analytics department if you can just subscribe to a few websites).  Maybe we did largely follow what our analytics department recommended.  How would we know?

I think we can infer that they don't (didn't?) give it adequate consideration when you look at the xGF on the D pairings.  Joki and Power was the most common D pairing last season (most TOI together - almost 500 minutes) and their xGF was 41.95% with HDC for of 65 to 119 against.  Those are terrible numbers.  They also didn't ride any pairs consistently, even when they worked.  Power/Dahlin, for example, had an xGF of 54.76% and were +8 on HDC, but only played 254 minutes together.        

[Night Train]

I think they could get another one. Don't trust Muel to stay healthy so depth is key. Every other move should be for forwards. 

[dudacek]

I would not be holding my breath on adding another defenceman of consequence.

When a GM invests around $27M in the space of a little over a year on long-term deals for 4 defencemen, then trades his leading scorer for another one 5 months later, he’s pretty well gone all-in on his top 5.

If anything, Jokiharju’s contract may see him moved and replaced with a cheaper option and Bryson probably won’t be qualified. (Maybe he returns on a cheaper deal)

Fortunately Samuelsson, Byram and Power are probably capable of more than this board expects from them because we’ll be having to cross our fingers they deliver.

I’m really curious how Ruff will implement his rotation. 

2 years ago, with 5 good veteran D in Jersey he played each of the 5 (Hamilton, Graves, Severson, Marino, and Seigenthaler) roughly equally - between 19:57 and 21:46 a game. Hamilton got most of the PP time with very little PK, the others roughly the opposite, with his #6 (Brendan Smith) lagging well behind.

Last year, with Hamilton hurt and Graves and Severson gone, it was harder to track but was kinda similar:

Luke Hughes played the Hamilton role and minutes, with Nemec and Bahl roughly replacing the other 2. Bahl got about 2 minutes a game less, but that seems largely a function of him being the #6 who frequently had to slide up Lindy’s fave 5 due to missing bodies. Smith and Colin Miller played roughly 15 sharing bottom 6 duties.

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

I would not be holding my breath on adding another defenceman of consequence.

When a GM invests around $27M in the space of a little over a year on long-term deals for 4 defencemen, then trades his leading scorer for another one 5 months later, he’s pretty well gone all-in on his top 5.

If anything, Jokiharju’s contract may see him moved and replaced with a cheaper option and Bryson probably won’t be qualified. (Maybe he returns on a cheaper deal)

Fortunately Samuelsson, Byram and Power are probably capable of more than this board expects from them because we’ll be having to cross our fingers they deliver.

I’m really curious how Ruff will implement his rotation. 

2 years ago, with 5 good veteran D in Jersey he played each of the 5 (Hamilton, Graves, Severson, Marino, and Seigenthaler) roughly equally - between 19:57 and 21:46 a game. Hamilton got most of the PP time with very little PK, the others roughly the opposite, with his #6 (Brendan Smith) lagging well behind.

Last year, with Hamilton hurt and Graves and Severson gone, it was harder to track but was kinda similar:

Luke Hughes played the Hamilton role and minutes, with Nemec and Bahl roughly replacing the other 2. Bahl got about 2 minutes a game less, but that seems largely a function of him being the #6 who frequently had to slide up Lindy’s fave 5 due to missing bodies. Smith and Colin Miller played roughly 15 sharing bottom 6 duties.

The one thing Byram gives you is the ability to run this:

Power - Dahlin

Byram - Clifton

Samuelsson - Joker

Ik others have put it out already. Just as curious as you as to how Ruff does this. 

 

[French Collection]

22 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The one thing Byram gives you is the ability to run this:

Power - Dahlin

Byram - Clifton

Samuelsson - Joker

Ik others have put it out already. Just as curious as you as to how Ruff does this. 

 

I would give Dahlin-Power a good look in October. One of them needs the mindset of hanging back when the other jumps up and the forwards would have to pitch in too.

Other teams would be on their heels if this clicks. These are the guys who should be playing 22-24 minutes per night.

[Happy Days]

Add James Patrick or another good coach for defensemen.

[Rasmus_]

On 5/23/2024 at 1:10 PM, Thorny said:

Maybe a FA or something but we have what, 3 first overall picks or something on D? Lol if these guys can’t buoy the D unit I’d assume team building is an impossible pursuit. Trading our best F for a 2nd pair D is enough for me now, I’d spend more significant assets elsewhere on the roster. At F, even a competent vet backup goalie 

Samuelsson - Dahlin

Byram - Power

Clifton - Jokiharju

..the handedness situation is brutal but clearly their aim was stacking talent and there’s a ton of talent there 

The strength of the roster is Dahlin / Power. If we become good, dollars to donuts it flows through them and Levi. If these 2 first overall picks aren’t creating two lockdown, possession dominant pairs we are up the creek anyways. Having a 3rd overall pick there on pair two failsafes even further unless the Byram we’ve seen is Bowen in perpetuity 

I really want someone like Hakanpaa. An experienced vet who won't clog up a ton of cap but is reliable and strong in his zone.

[French Collection]

2 minutes ago, Rasmus_ said:

I really want someone like Hakanpaa. An experienced vet who won't clog up a ton of cap but is reliable and strong in his zone.

I had thought of this guy, kind of like Parayko light.

He would be a size and defensive upgrade from Joki/Bryson. Not sure how he is on the PK but he and Mule could be go to guys there.

[dudacek]

What Granato did was mostly irrelevant in terms of what Ruff might do, but I think we get too locked into the idea of 1st, 2nd and 3rd pairings as rigid entities when they are actually very fluid from game to game and within games.

For example, I picked a random February game from March versus Dallas.

Johnson and Johnson were the 3rd pair. Over the course of the game, they played 10 (very short) shifts and about 6 minutes together.

Dahlin and Jokiharju were the 1st pair, Power and Clifton the 2nd. Power played 7 more minutes than Clifton, Dahlin 8 more than Joki.

Ras played 21 shifts with Henri, 5 1/2 with Cliffy and 4 with Owen.

The shift chart makes a very clear that Granato’s plan for that game (a very tight 2-1 loss) was to have either Power or Dahlin on the ice as much as possible. One would come off and the other jump on and that continued until late in a close game where he started throwing them out together to tie things up.

Being on “the 2nd pair” had no drag whatsoever on Power’s ice time; he got considerably more minuteS than 1st-pair Jokiharju.

The “3rd pair” didn’t see the ice much more than the “non-pair” of Clifton and Dahlin.

My point is pairings are hardly locked at the hip, they switch from game to game and throughout games based on situations, opponents, injuries and trends.

Deployment is what’s important.  “So-and-so shouldn’t be on the 2nd pair” looking at the pre-game line chart doesn’t really mean what people think it does.

Edited May 25 by dudacek

[French Collection]

I forget who it was this past season but there was a team that dressed 6 D but in reality rolled 5 all game, mixing and matching pairs on the fly.

The 6th guy probably got around 7-8 minutes. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

With 5 D under contract for next season, the Sabres have the most expensive Defense in the NHL at over $31 million.  Add 2-3 more players and you maybe talking a defense of $36 mill+.  That's over 40% of the cap limit for a defense that was in the bottom 1/3 of the NHL last season. 

The construction of this team is a friggin mess.  TB has the 2nd most invested in their D group, but they have proven stars like Hedman, Cernak and Sergachev and won Stanley Cups.  What's our excuse?

 

[Flashsabre]

18 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With 5 D under contract for next season, the Sabres have the most expensive Defense in the NHL at over $31 million.  Add 2-3 more players and you maybe talking a defense of $36 mill+.  That's over 40% of the cap limit for a defense that was in the bottom 1/3 of the NHL last season. 

The construction of this team is a friggin mess.  TB has the 2nd most invested in their D group, but they have proven stars like Hedman, Cernak and Sergachev and won Stanley Cups.  What's our excuse?

 

Why don’t you enlighten us all on how you would Construct it properly.

[dudacek]

36 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

With 5 D under contract for next season, the Sabres have the most expensive Defense in the NHL at over $31 million.  Add 2-3 more players and you maybe talking a defense of $36 mill+.  That's over 40% of the cap limit for a defense that was in the bottom 1/3 of the NHL last season. 

The construction of this team is a friggin mess.  TB has the 2nd most invested in their D group, but they have proven stars like Hedman, Cernak and Sergachev and won Stanley Cups.  What's our excuse?

 

Yep, pretty risky on Adams part to bet so much on unproven potential: 5 regulars of your top 6 under 25, 3 of them with less than 170 NHL games played?

Your “bottom 3rd” is a cherry-picked stat not necessarily reflective of the players in question, but Dahlin Power Mule Clifton Byram (and Jokiharju?) certainly have a lot to prove next year.

There’s a lot riding on as-yet-unrealized potential.

Edited May 25 by dudacek

[Doohicksie]

On 5/23/2024 at 9:43 PM, Ctaeth said:

This is a bit of a non sequitur, but sometimes I forget that Samuelsson is on the team

Because he's always hurt.

 

We all know defense is a brutal position to play, and I think the 7/8 are pretty important.  I can see upgrading (Roy in place of Joker sounds good), but I also like Bryson and Johnson being ready to step in when the injuries happen.  I kind of hope we can keep them both.  I don't think we've seen Johnson's upside yet, and Bryson proved in his late season stint that he's finally grown into the steady defenseman role.