OT - IIHF worlds 24

[Believer]

Congrats, Cozens!

Great to see him scoring. Think expectations he put on himself early and publicly as a team leader and his lack of scoring in Granato’s D-focused system affected his confidence enormously. Have high hopes Ruff positions him to succeed on a top line and PP unit.

[mjd1001]

On 5/21/2024 at 8:10 PM, JoeSchmoe said:

22-23 he was blowing by people all the time. I think it was the best part of his game... He had speed and power.

This year he'd always pull up and wait for help. I think this is the biggest reason for his regression. Not sure if it was coaching, confidence, injury, or what.

He may have been playing a slightly different style, but (statistically) his drop in production came down to simple shooting percentage especially from right in front of the net/high danger area. 2 years ago he converted at a very high rate, this year was closer to his average.

-Cozens 31 goal season, he shot overall 14.7%, every other season: 9.0% (this year), 8.1% and 6.5%.

-His shots on goal this year compared to last are very close, 211 to 200 (seeing he played 2 less games this year, almost identical in terms of shots per game)

Its not that he wasn't getting to the high danger spots, or playing a much slower game, he simply wasn't converting.  In the high danger areas (The area within 29 feet of the center of the goal and bound on both sides by an imaginary line drawn from the faceoff dot to 2 feet outside the goalpost):

-2 years ago Cozens had 68 shots, scored 13 times, and had a 19.1% shooting percentage.

-This year he had 54 shots, only scored 5 goals, a 9.3% shooting percentage.

Most all of his 'missing production' wasn't due to less shots, wasn't due much to shooting from different areas, wasn't due to not skating as hard, wasn't due to less offensive zone time. He (pretty much) had the same shots, from the same area, had the same top skating speed, similar 'top skating speed bursts'...all within a very small percentage.

The spider charts say all of those were 'about' the same.  The single thing that was different about his game that you can see 'statistically' was WHEN he had those 'high danger chances, he converted at less than half the rate, and had 8 less goals from that area.

Now, I can't tell you if those shots in the 'high danger area' were any more contested than they were last year or not.  The stats available don't show that. But in terms of how many shots he gets off (about 200 per year), where he shoots from, a few years of stats show Cozens is who he is....the one thing that will determine his production will be his shooting percentage. Is he going to be close to the  14.7% guy we saw 2 years ago? or is he closer to the shooting 8.3% guy he has been the rest of his career (even factoring in this past season in that number)? 

Maybe its a confidence thing.  He was great in the IIHF 2 years ago and carried that into the regular season with a great regular season. Last year he didn't play and didn't have a great season here. This year, maybe he comes out of it super confident and it carries over to this year.

 

Edited May 23, 2024 by mjd1001

[Flashsabre]

Power has looked very good for Canada this tournament. Hopefully is ready for a jump next season.

[Taro T]

32 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

He may have been playing a slightly different style, but (statistically) his drop in production came down to simple shooting percentage especially from right in front of the net/high danger area. 2 years ago he converted at a very high rate, this year was closer to his average.

-Cozens 31 goal season, he shot overall 14.7%, every other season: 9.0% (this year), 8.1% and 6.5%.

-His shots on goal this year compared to last are very close, 211 to 200 (seeing he played 2 less games this year, almost identical in terms of shots per game)

Its not that he wasn't getting to the high danger spots, or playing a much slower game, he simply wasn't converting.  In the high danger areas (The area within 29 feet of the center of the goal and bound on both sides by an imaginary line drawn from the faceoff dot to 2 feet outside the goalpost):

-2 years ago Cozens had 68 shots, scored 13 times, and had a 19.1% shooting percentage.

-This year he had 54 shots, only scored 5 goals, a 9.3% shooting percentage.

Most all of his 'missing production' wasn't due to less shots, wasn't due much to shooting from different areas, wasn't due to not skating as hard, wasn't due to less offensive zone time. He (pretty much) had the same shots, from the same area, had the same top skating speed, similar 'top skating speed bursts'...all within a very small percentage.

The spider charts say all of those were 'about' the same.  The single thing that was different about his game that you can see 'statistically' was WHEN he had those 'high danger chances, he converted at less than half the rate, and had 8 less goals from that area.

Now, I can't tell you if those shots in the 'high danger area' were any more contested than they were last year or not.  The stats available don't show that. But in terms of how many shots he gets off (about 200 per year), where he shoots from, a few years of stats show Cozens is who he is....the one thing that will determine his production will be his shooting percentage. Is he going to be close to the  14.7% guy we saw 2 years ago? or is he closer to the shooting 8.3% guy he has been the rest of his career (even factoring in this past season in that number)? 

Maybe its a confidence thing.  He was great in the IIHF 2 years ago and carried that into the regular season with a great regular season. Last year he didn't play and didn't have a great season here. This year, maybe he comes out of it super confident and it carries over to this year.

 

Great analysis.

One thing though that was different in the HD chances he had last year vs this year is a LOT of his HD chances playing w/ Frick & Frack came when they were on a rush and he either got the return on a give & go or a tic-tac-toe play.  That was the source of many of his goals.  A lot of them were essentially wide open nets that even this kid could score once every 20-30 or so chances on an NHL netminder. 

This year, don't recall more than a couple non SH attempts that he had that came off a rush.  

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Flashsabre said:

Power has looked very good for Canada this tournament. Hopefully is ready for a jump next season.

Having a coach with an actual system of play in their own half of the ice should help a lot of the younger guys look better.  The $1MM question is, will the system that Ruff implements for this team be the right one for the 2024 NHL.  Am certain if he could've somehow teleported this bunch back to 2001, they'd be going gangbusters.

[Flashsabre]

Wow, Peterka kneed and it looked like it might be devastating but he is still in the game.

Cozens and JJ have both been on the wrong end of brutal knee on knee hits this tournament and knock on wood, have come away alright.

[Flashsabre]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Having a coach with an actual system of play in their own half of the ice should help a lot of the younger guys look better.  The $1MM question is, will the system that Ruff implements for this team be the right one for the 2024 NHL.  Am certain if he could've somehow teleported this bunch back to 2001, they'd be going gangbusters.

Yep he is being used as Canada’s number 1 dman, QBing the PP and getting some SH time as well. Very confident with the puck and making good choices. I think he has a fair amount of points too.

They need to find him a defensive anchor partner that just lets him go.

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Yep he is being used as Canada’s number 1 dman, QBing the PP and getting some SH time as well. Very confident with the puck and making good choices. I think he has a fair amount of points too.

They need to find him a defensive anchor partner that just lets him go.

Expect the LT plan is to eventually have Johnson partnered up with Power, but could see him with Samuelsson or Jokiharju this year.  Expect that they will try to make Byram - Dahlin a thing.  Will be interesting to see if they try to make Power-Dahlin a thing instead.  

Am looking forward to camp this year to see what they're thinking lines and pairings wise.  Am pretty sure we won't see Biro getting shifts with Thompson "just in case."

[Flashsabre]

Boy Canada keeps winning despite Binnington in net

[shrader]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

Boy Canada keeps winning despite Binnington in net

It's kind of crazy how Canada can't produce any elite goalies lately. 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Expect the LT plan is to eventually have Johnson partnered up with Power, but could see him with Samuelsson or Jokiharju this year.  Expect that they will try to make Byram - Dahlin a thing.  Will be interesting to see if they try to make Power-Dahlin a thing instead.  

Am looking forward to camp this year to see what they're thinking lines and pairings wise.  Am pretty sure we won't see Biro getting shifts with Thompson "just in case."

The red flags in training camp with the prolonged and lackadaisical use of veterans and AHL guys was a major warning sign of the dumpster fire of the season. No urgency, no seriousness. Adams let it go on for 7 months. 

[Thorner]

40 minutes ago, shrader said:

It's kind of crazy how Canada can't produce any elite goalies lately. 

Agree. Our best hope could legitimately be Levi

Canada is also on the Levi timeline apparently 

All the rage 

[French Collection]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Agree. Our best hope could legitimately be Levi

Canada is also on the Levi timeline apparently 

All the rage 

Hockey Canada is probably hoping for him to take the next step. He’s on their radar, World Juniors, Olympics and World Championships already, although he didn’t play Olympics and got a taste of action at the WC.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

The red flags in training camp with the prolonged and lackadaisical use of veterans and AHL guys was a major warning sign of the dumpster fire of the season. No urgency, no seriousness. Adams let it go on for 7 months. 

He really does seem to be bought into the thought that this team, as assembled with minor tweaks here or there, will be a long time SC contender starting in ~3 years.  And, had the team snuck into the playoffs last year and this year, people would be completely fine with him only making moves at the fringes and letting the kids fully cook.  Heck, had they made the playoffs once in the past 2 seasons, most would be fine with letting them cook.

The problem is, they aren't even in the playoffs yet and people are tired of being here for the past baker's dozen years watching them be anywhere from historically bad to just bad enough to not get into a field with 3 mediocrities making it and everywhere inbetween.

We seem to be left with 2 options to hope for.  1. that Adams is both right about the future and that the kids have cooked long enough to get into the playoffs this year with only a handful of additions (say a Pat Kane, an Anthony Cirelli, and 1 or 2 "energy" guys for the 4th line) which will likely buy him the 2 extra years to see if he's right about the future and the Sabres already have their own Beane or Chugger; or 

2. that Adams is wrong about this year, the team flames out spectacularly and that Pegula listens to Ruff (who ends up actually having some good ideas about who the next GM should be) and finally gets the Sabres their own Beane or Chugger.

Can't root for option 2, so have to hope option 1 is the reality we're living in.  We'll find out soon.

[bob_sauve28]

 

[SabreFinn]

Two possible players for our 4th line are Grundström(Kings) and Mäenalanen (former Jets)

[French Collection]

Czechs must be buzzing, beating USA in front of the home crowd.

[Sabres73]

4 hours ago, shrader said:

It's kind of crazy how Canada can't produce any elite goalies lately. 

Devon. Levi.

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

Agree. Our best hope could legitimately be Levi

Canada is also on the Levi timeline apparently 

All the rage 

 

2 hours ago, Sabres73 said:

Devon. Levi.

This is how you find out who’s blocked you 

[shrader]

3 hours ago, Sabres73 said:

Devon. Levi.

Which brings up an interesting question. Who is the best goalie today that came out of major junior? I’m scratching my head on this one. 
 

Edit: I’m guessing there’s a random euro I can’t think of. 

Edited May 24, 2024 by shrader

[French Collection]

37 minutes ago, shrader said:

Which brings up an interesting question. Who is the best goalie today that came out of major junior? I’m scratching my head on this one. 
 

Edit: I’m guessing there’s a random euro I can’t think of. 

Ratzlaff was 3rd on Canada’s WJ team this year. He’s an ‘05 so could be the #1 this year.

Rousseau and St-Hilaire don’t seem like sure fire prospects yet.

Doesn’t seem to be a Carey Price on the horizon.

Edited May 24, 2024 by French Collection

[thewookie1]

14 minutes ago, French Collection said:

Ratzlaff was 3rd on Canada’s WJ team this year. He’s an ‘05 so could be the #1 this year.

Rousseau and St-Hilaire don’t seem like sure fire prospects yet.

Doesn’t seem to be a Carey Price on the horizon.

Devon Levi is their Carey Price on the horizon; or at very least what they are banking on more or less

[French Collection]

45 minutes ago, shrader said:

Which brings up an interesting question. Who is the best goalie today that came out of major junior? I’m scratching my head on this one. 
 

Edit: I’m guessing there’s a random euro I can’t think of. 

Two OHL goalies I follow who were on the right track had down years in their final junior seasons.

Ben Gaudreau led Canada to U18 gold a few years ago, was drafted by San Jose in the 3rd round and hasn’t done much since.

Dom Divencentiis was OHL goalie of the year last year, drafted by Winnipeg and took a step back this year.

Goalies are different. They don’t seem to have as much year over year growth as skaters.

[French Collection]

24 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Devon Levi is their Carey Price on the horizon; or at very least what they are banking on more or less

The job is there for the taking. No blockers at the moment, he just needs to keep improving and get experience.

[Archie Lee]

2 hours ago, shrader said:

Which brings up an interesting question. Who is the best goalie today that came out of major junior? I’m scratching my head on this one. 
 

Edit: I’m guessing there’s a random euro I can’t think of. 

I’m not sure if you are being cheeky, but it could be UPL.

Joel Hofer is coming along.

The current best may well be Binnington. Adin Hill?

Somewhat interesting is that of the last 10 cup winners, 7 had a Canadian starting goalie who came out of major junior (Crawford, Fleury, Murray, Holtby, Binnington, Kuemper and Hill). 

Edited May 24, 2024 by Archie Lee