John-Jason Peterka, the Sabres current #1 LW, a season review

[LGR4GM]

JJP had a good year. He went from 12g and 20a to 28g and 22a at the ripe old age of 22. He was durable playing all 82 games this season, the only Sabre to do so followed closely by Dahlin with 81gp. 

Lets take a look at his GF%, xGF%, HDCF%, and xGF/60 (goals for %, expected goals for %, high danger corsi for %, and expected goals per 60mins of toi)

At 5v5: 57.01gf% (2nd), 51.46xGF% (2nd), 48.84hdcf% (3rd), and 2.75xGF/60 (2nd). JJP was one of the best forwards on the team this past season and outside of Quinn having a higher xGF/60 the other players above him are gone (Mitts and Okposo). While ever Sabre needs to better at hdcf% and should be under Ruff, JJP took advantage of his opportunities and we see that reflected in his 28goals this season. 

PP stats: 68.75GF% (8th), 81.63xGF% (8th), 75.76HDCF% (8th), and 5.1xGF/60 (8th). Once again we find one of our better producers just turning into muck on the pp. There is so much evidence the pp is just total ***** and should be burned and never spoken of again that the fact they did nothing all year to address it is... something. Why did this happen to JJP and Benson? Hard to say but it could be that the 2nd pp unit was just nowhere near as good as Tuch, Thompson, Cozens, Skinner and Okposo all come out looking better. I think for me it says that like Benson there is more scoring to unlock here and we should be able to next season. 

Final thought on the numbers is that once the line of JJP - Tage - Tuch was put in place they managed 156min toi and in that time managed a 72.22GF% while only having an xGF of 43.95. Interestingly that xGF goes over 50% when it is JJP with just Tage and when it is JJP with just Tuch in the limited minutes those players were paired together. I think there could be a case that the xGF% is low because they used their really good shooting skills more than relying on HD chances which would have pumped up the xGF more. It is a time when talent is beating out chances and to be honest, that might continue. JJP only shot at 12.4% so he isn't some crazy sniper with an unsustainable number (Reinhart shot 24.5% on a career avg of 13.6% for example, buyer beware). 

Peterka had about as good of a second season under the circumstances as we could have hoped for. He was solid defensively while being quite good offensively to the point he replaced Jeff Skinner. I think there is still more though and getting more pucks to HD areas will help some of the imbalance we see between actual and expected goals. Yes good shooters will outperform their xGF regularly but in JJP case, I want to see the uptick in assists I think he can generate. Still it appears as though JJP himself can get to the good shooting areas and convert. I hope it continues and I hope he continues to improve. He added 18 more points this past season, 16 of those goals, so there is a good chance that with more scoring and a better system his assists totals rocket up as well. I don't think looking at him as a 25g, 35a guy is too crazy. What a great 2nd round pick he is and what a great move up to get him (traded 38 and 100 to get up to 34). 

[msw2112]

This is the regime that drafted Peterka by, as mentioned, a smart trade to move up the draft board.  This regime also drafted Quinn, who outside of injuries, has been a very good offensive player (he did have a horrible outing in Detroit....)  They also drafted Benson and a number of other guys who appear to have bright futures.  I don't see the Adams administration as the total fail that many on this board do.  They've put together a talented team that's in the middle of the pack and should, with the right coach (Lindy?) make the leap to the upper half of the league.  I think that they will pick up some grit in the offseason by acquiring a couple of new players and I think that Lindy will help inject some grit into some of the existing players.  I don't think a complete overhaul is needed.  They are moving in the right direction and with good NHL coaching (Lindy?) and a few roster tweaks, I think that we Sabres fans will be happy next year when the team ends the playoff drought.  And that's probably without significant contributions from future players such as Savoie, Kulich, Rosen, Neuchev, Wahlberg, Östlund, etc. who are further down the line.

I will fully admit that I said the same thing last year, but I really believed in Granato, and as much as I like him and supported him, he lost me with the 2 late Detroit losses and the Ottawa embarrassment.  I just don't see those types of performances in critical games happening with Lindy behind the bench.  The team will, at a minimum, be ready to play both in a) the October-November-December portion of the season; and b) the first period of games.  I've made these same comments in other threads.

Edited April 25 by msw2112

[Jorcus]

50 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

JJP had a good year. He went from 12g and 20a to 28g and 22a at the ripe old age of 22. He was durable playing all 82 games this season, the only Sabre to do so followed closely by Dahlin with 81gp. 

Lets take a look at his GF%, xGF%, HDCF%, and xGF/60 (goals for %, expected goals for %, high danger corsi for %, and expected goals per 60mins of toi)

At 5v5: 57.01gf% (2nd), 51.46xGF% (2nd), 48.84hdcf% (3rd), and 2.75xGF/60 (2nd). JJP was one of the best forwards on the team this past season and outside of Quinn having a higher xGF/60 the other players above him are gone (Mitts and Okposo). While ever Sabre needs to better at hdcf% and should be under Ruff, JJP took advantage of his opportunities and we see that reflected in his 28goals this season. 

PP stats: 68.75GF% (8th), 81.63xGF% (8th), 75.76HDCF% (8th), and 5.1xGF/60 (8th). Once again we find one of our better producers just turning into muck on the pp. There is so much evidence the pp is just total ***** and should be burned and never spoken of again that the fact they did nothing all year to address it is... something. Why did this happen to JJP and Benson? Hard to say but it could be that the 2nd pp unit was just nowhere near as good as Tuch, Thompson, Cozens, Skinner and Okposo all come out looking better. I think for me it says that like Benson there is more scoring to unlock here and we should be able to next season. 

Final thought on the numbers is that once the line of JJP - Tage - Tuch was put in place they managed 156min toi and in that time managed a 72.22GF% while only having an xGF of 43.95. Interestingly that xGF goes over 50% when it is JJP with just Tage and when it is JJP with just Tuch in the limited minutes those players were paired together. I think there could be a case that the xGF% is low because they used their really good shooting skills more than relying on HD chances which would have pumped up the xGF more. It is a time when talent is beating out chances and to be honest, that might continue. JJP only shot at 12.4% so he isn't some crazy sniper with an unsustainable number (Reinhart shot 24.5% on a career avg of 13.6% for example, buyer beware). 

Peterka had about as good of a second season under the circumstances as we could have hoped for. He was solid defensively while being quite good offensively to the point he replaced Jeff Skinner. I think there is still more though and getting more pucks to HD areas will help some of the imbalance we see between actual and expected goals. Yes good shooters will outperform their xGF regularly but in JJP case, I want to see the uptick in assists I think he can generate. Still it appears as though JJP himself can get to the good shooting areas and convert. I hope it continues and I hope he continues to improve. He added 18 more points this past season, 16 of those goals, so there is a good chance that with more scoring and a better system his assists totals rocket up as well. I don't think looking at him as a 25g, 35a guy is too crazy. What a great 2nd round pick he is and what a great move up to get him (traded 38 and 100 to get up to 34). 

JJP's best assets are his skating and endurance. He is better when there is a flow of the game up and down the ice. When placed in a stationary power play those assets are compromised playing catch and hoping to see a hole to shoot. They did try to move more with the second PP unit but it never really clicked with who was playing on it. I would love to see JJ back with Quinn. If that happens his assist rate will go up for certain. I liked the fact he shot the puck any time he had an open chance. He gave up percentage for attempts. I would hope he could convert a few more of his breakaway chances. He sure gets enough of them.   

[Thorner]

Very good year. I assume next year whenever John-Jason goes out on the ice, opponents, being very aware, will shout “there goes John-Jason Peterka for a shift!”

[Weave]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Very good year. I assume next year whenever John-Jason goes out on the ice, opponents, being very aware, will shout “there goes John-Jason Peterka for a shift!”

[RochesterExpat]

To the point about the weak power play and JJP having room to grow there, he was tied with Sidney Crosby and Brady Tkachuk for 5-on-5 goals this season—good enough to have only eleven players league-wide with more 5-on-5 goals.

[Night Train]

He tipped his hand as an ascending player while playing for Germany in the World Championships. Carried it over to the Sabres season.  Meanwhile, many around him declined. 

[SwampD]

35 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Very good year. I assume next year whenever John-Jason goes out on the ice, opponents, being very aware, will shout “there goes John-Jason Peterka for a shift!”

His name is my name, too!

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

Very good year. I assume next year whenever John-Jason goes out on the ice, opponents, being very aware, will shout “there goes John-Jason Peterka for a shift!”

La La La La 

John

Jason

Peterka has a shift 

His puck can be my puck too 

Whenever we skate out, our opponents always shout,

there goes John Jason Peterka on a shift 

La La La La la

[dudacek]

Peterka is an interesting guy to look at comparables.

His 28 goals mark the 25th-best 21-year-old season in the past 10.

Some guys who had similar U22 seasons:

• Pastrnak 35
• Conner 31
• Kucherov 29
• Draisaitl 29
• Rantanen 29
• Petterson 27
• Eichel 25
• Nylander 20

But then you also get guys like Alex Debrincat with 41 and Jack Hughes with 43, so there are guys who were pretty far ahead.

One thing seems to hold true though, very few of the guys on that list of 25 proved to be a flash in the pan. This type of production at the age seems likely to set him up for at least a Nikolaj Ehlers type career.

Edited April 26 by dudacek

[French Collection]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Peterka is an interesting guy to look at comparables.

His 28 goals mark the 25th-best 21-year-old season in the past 10.

Some guys who had similar U22 seasons:

• Pastrnak 35
• Conner 31
• Kucherov 29
• Drasaitl 29
• Rantanen 29
• Petterson 27
• Eichel 25
• Nylander 20

But then you also get guys like Alex Debrincat with 41 and Jack Hughes with 43, so there are guys who were pretty far ahead.

One thing seems to hold true though, very few of the guys om that list of 25 proved to be a flash in the pan. This type of production at the age seems like to set him up for at least a Nikolaj Ehlers type career.

Wow, I didn’t think he was in such good company. Lindy will like his fast, attack on the rush game.

I hope he ends up a bit better than Ehlers. Ehlers is good but always seems to leave me wanting more.

[inkman]

16 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

JJP had a good year. He went from 12g and 20a to 28g and 22a at the ripe old age of 22. He was durable playing all 82 games this season, the only Sabre to do so followed closely by Dahlin with 81gp. 

Lets take a look at his GF%, xGF%, HDCF%, and xGF/60 (goals for %, expected goals for %, high danger corsi for %, and expected goals per 60mins of toi)

At 5v5: 57.01gf% (2nd), 51.46xGF% (2nd), 48.84hdcf% (3rd), and 2.75xGF/60 (2nd). JJP was one of the best forwards on the team this past season and outside of Quinn having a higher xGF/60 the other players above him are gone (Mitts and Okposo). While ever Sabre needs to better at hdcf% and should be under Ruff, JJP took advantage of his opportunities and we see that reflected in his 28goals this season. 

PP stats: 68.75GF% (8th), 81.63xGF% (8th), 75.76HDCF% (8th), and 5.1xGF/60 (8th). Once again we find one of our better producers just turning into muck on the pp. There is so much evidence the pp is just total ***** and should be burned and never spoken of again that the fact they did nothing all year to address it is... something. Why did this happen to JJP and Benson? Hard to say but it could be that the 2nd pp unit was just nowhere near as good as Tuch, Thompson, Cozens, Skinner and Okposo all come out looking better. I think for me it says that like Benson there is more scoring to unlock here and we should be able to next season. 

Final thought on the numbers is that once the line of JJP - Tage - Tuch was put in place they managed 156min toi and in that time managed a 72.22GF% while only having an xGF of 43.95. Interestingly that xGF goes over 50% when it is JJP with just Tage and when it is JJP with just Tuch in the limited minutes those players were paired together. I think there could be a case that the xGF% is low because they used their really good shooting skills more than relying on HD chances which would have pumped up the xGF more. It is a time when talent is beating out chances and to be honest, that might continue. JJP only shot at 12.4% so he isn't some crazy sniper with an unsustainable number (Reinhart shot 24.5% on a career avg of 13.6% for example, buyer beware). 

Peterka had about as good of a second season under the circumstances as we could have hoped for. He was solid defensively while being quite good offensively to the point he replaced Jeff Skinner. I think there is still more though and getting more pucks to HD areas will help some of the imbalance we see between actual and expected goals. Yes good shooters will outperform their xGF regularly but in JJP case, I want to see the uptick in assists I think he can generate. Still it appears as though JJP himself can get to the good shooting areas and convert. I hope it continues and I hope he continues to improve. He added 18 more points this past season, 16 of those goals, so there is a good chance that with more scoring and a better system his assists totals rocket up as well. I don't think looking at him as a 25g, 35a guy is too crazy. What a great 2nd round pick he is and what a great move up to get him (traded 38 and 100 to get up to 34). 

Thanks for doing these Ligarious.  

[Ctaeth]

JJP exceeded my expectations for this season.  I knew he was going to be good eventually, but I didn't realize it would be this soon.  They really knocked it out of the park with those first two picks of the 2020 draft.  Two players that will likely be 30+ goal scorers (and they aren't just goal scorers, they both bring other traits to the table!).

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, French Collection said:

Wow, I didn’t think he was in such good company. Lindy will like his fast, attack on the rush game.

I hope he ends up a bit better than Ehlers. Ehlers is good but always seems to leave me wanting more.

Picked Ehlers because he seemed to represent the “really good 2nd-liner” level that represents the low end of the peer group. 

Another way of saying it would be “you score 25-30 goals at 21 and the odds look really good you’re going to continue doing that, or better, throughout your career.” (Which we should keep in mind with Dylan Cozens, who hit 31).

The question with Peterka is really “how much can he grow?”

His skate/shoot combo is high-end. His compete and vision seem good.

His consistency and details need work.

He had 25 even-strength goals, that was good for 19th in the entire NHL last year.

Leon Draisaitl had 20, Stamkos 21, McDavid 24.

[#freejame]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Picked Ehlers because he seemed to represent the “really good 2nd-liner” level that represents the low end of the peer group. 

Another way of saying it would be “you score 25-30 goals at 21 and the odds look really good you’re going to continue doing that, or better, throughout your career.” (Which we should keep in mind with Dylan Cozens, who hit 31).

The question with Peterka is really “how much can he grow?”

His skate/shoot combo is high-end. His compete and vision seem good.

His consistency and details need work.

He had 25 even-strength goals, that was good for 19th in the entire NHL last year.

Leon Draisaitl had 20, Stamkos 21, McDavid 24.

I think he’s going to be a monster when we have a real power play system. Hopefully this is just the start. 

[Stoner]

21 hours ago, Thorny said:

Very good year. I assume next year whenever John-Jason goes out on the ice, opponents, being very aware, will shout “there goes John-Jason Peterka for a shift!”

Don't give John Gurtler any ideas.

[RochesterExpat]

12 hours ago, dudacek said:

One thing seems to hold true though, very few of the guys on that list of 25 proved to be a flash in the pan. This type of production at the age seems likely to set him up for at least a Nikolaj Ehlers type career.

Put another way (and to reiterate what @LGR4GM already alluded to at the end of his post): as a second round pick, making the list is even more of a noteworthy accomplishment.
 

He’s one of only six non-first round picks in the last decade with similar performance at age 21 (I’m adding one if you check these numbers because I’m giving Jason Robertson the benefit of the doubt as he hit 45 points in only 58 games). Those players?

- Aho

- DeBrincat

- Point

- Kucherov

- Gaudreau

And the aforementioned Robertson.

That’s some pretty good company to be in. Good for JJ.

 

 

[LGR4GM]

 

[Thorner]

16 hours ago, dudacek said:

Peterka is an interesting guy to look at comparables.

His 28 goals mark the 25th-best 21-year-old season in the past 10.

Some guys who had similar U22 seasons:

• Pastrnak 35
• Conner 31
• Kucherov 29
• Draisaitl 29
• Rantanen 29
• Petterson 27
• Eichel 25
• Nylander 20

But then you also get guys like Alex Debrincat with 41 and Jack Hughes with 43, so there are guys who were pretty far ahead.

One thing seems to hold true though, very few of the guys on that list of 25 proved to be a flash in the pan. This type of production at the age seems likely to set him up for at least a Nikolaj Ehlers type career.

Hopefully without the egregious diving 

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Picked Ehlers because he seemed to represent the “really good 2nd-liner” level that represents the low end of the peer group. 

Another way of saying it would be “you score 25-30 goals at 21 and the odds look really good you’re going to continue doing that, or better, throughout your career.” (Which we should keep in mind with Dylan Cozens, who hit 31).

The question with Peterka is really “how much can he grow?”

His skate/shoot combo is high-end. His compete and vision seem good.

His consistency and details need work.

He had 25 even-strength goals, that was good for 19th in the entire NHL last year.

Leon Draisaitl had 20, Stamkos 21, McDavid 24.

McDavid and Draisaitl were sort of PP fiends eh 

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Don't give John Gurtler any ideas.

Jeez I feel like my memory starts with RJ

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, RochesterExpat said:

Put another way (and to reiterate what @LGR4GM already alluded to at the end of his post): as a second round pick, making the list is even more of a noteworthy accomplishment.
 

He’s one of only six non-first round picks in the last decade with similar performance at age 21 (I’m adding one if you check these numbers because I’m giving Jason Robertson the benefit of the doubt as he hit 45 points in only 58 games). Those players?

- Aho

- DeBrincat

- Point

- Kucherov

- Gaudreau

And the aforementioned Robertson.

That’s some pretty good company to be in. Good for JJ.

 

 

Is this just a goals thing though? It’s impressive regardless, and im not going to check them all, but we seem to be cherry picking a bit as im not sure I’d call, say, Point’s season similar. He only had 4 more goals, sure, but he also had 55% more assists 

Aho had 83 points. JJ had 50. There’s a sizeable gap there 

Tho, I’d imagine JJ probably played on an inferior squad 

Edited April 26 by Thorny

[RochesterExpat]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Is this just a goals thing though? It’s impressive regardless, and im not going to check them all, but we seem to be cherry picking a bit as im not sure I’d call, say, Point’s season similar. He only had 4 more goals, sure, but he also had 55% more assists

It’s similar in the sense that we’re looking at a second or first line role/production. He is behind everyone listed, although, honestly, when we account for the differences with power play points, his numbers pretty well match with Gaudreau. So I think I would consider it a cliff between Aho and the rest of the group. DeBrincat, Point and Kucherov (add in Robertson if he’d played a full season) make up the next tier. Peterka and Gaudreau are the third tier with the rest of the players having a noticeable separation. 

Part of it is we’re forced to use a small sample size. A total of 185 forwards drafted 2nd round or later played in at least one NHL game during their age 21 season over the last decade. If we limit to players playing 40 games, we’re down to 44 players. Of those 44, JJ is 7th in points-per-game. If we look at only even strength points, JJ is 6th. 

There are plenty of other ways to look at it and we can expand from that first/second line impact to look at other players. For example, if we consider TOI, JJ’s numbers are now closest to Jesper Bratt who was playing sheltered minutes and only played 60 games.

So the data is cherry picked but it’s not cherry picked because I’m trying to make JJ into a stud player, it’s cherry picked because it’s hard to really quantify since this is such a rare occurrence. His numbers look good because they are good. He’s in good company no matter how we slice it. Gaudreau may be viewed as a less than favorable player by some, but he’s still a 60 point guy. He just gets negative coverage because he signed a massive deal following a pretty clear outlier of a season. With JJ’s numbers looking like Gaudreau and Bratt, I think everyone here should be thrilled.

One other weird thing I noticed—and this is kind of off-topic—but the “flash in the pan” seasons virrually all come from 1st rounders. I wonder if that’s because utilization and opportunities are different. They get pushed into the league early instead of really earning a roster spot. Just an observation and a conjecture.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, RochesterExpat said:

It’s similar in the sense that we’re looking at a second or first line role/production. He is behind everyone listed, although, honestly, when we account for the differences with power play points, his numbers pretty well match with Gaudreau. So I think I would consider it a cliff between Aho and the rest of the group. DeBrincat, Point and Kucherov (add in Robertson if he’d played a full season) make up the next tier. Peterka and Gaudreau are the third tier with the rest of the players having a noticeable separation. 

Part of it is we’re forced to use a small sample size. A total of 185 forwards drafted 2nd round or later played in at least one NHL game during their age 21 season over the last decade. If we limit to players playing 40 games, we’re down to 44 players. Of those 44, JJ is 7th in points-per-game. If we look at only even strength points, JJ is 6th. 

There are plenty of other ways to look at it and we can expand from that first/second line impact to look at other players. For example, if we consider TOI, JJ’s numbers are now closest to Jesper Bratt who was playing sheltered minutes and only played 60 games.

So the data is cherry picked but it’s not cherry picked because I’m trying to make JJ into a stud player, it’s cherry picked because it’s hard to really quantify since this is such a rare occurrence. His numbers look good because they are good. He’s in good company no matter how we slice it. Gaudreau may be viewed as a less than favorable player by some, but he’s still a 60 point guy. He just gets negative coverage because he signed a massive deal following a pretty clear outlier of a season. With JJ’s numbers looking like Gaudreau and Bratt, I think everyone here should be thrilled.

One other weird thing I noticed—and this is kind of off-topic—but the “flash in the pan” seasons virrually all come from 1st rounders. I wonder if that’s because utilization and opportunities are different. They get pushed into the league early instead of really earning a roster spot. Just an observation and a conjecture.

Good post. I think I agree with the conclusion of your “weird thing” at the end, too 

[Demoted]

I like saying his last name.

Peh-tur-ka

[French Collection]

6 minutes ago, Demoted said:

I like saying his last name.

Peh-tur-ka

Even better when you add Jay Jay  to it.