Zach Benson, the 5'10" 170lb, 18yr old rookie's first season review

[LGR4GM]

Well, he proved me wrong. I consistently said we should send him back but by March, he was turning into one of our top 6 forwards. Let's take a look at how he did as a rookie 18yr old in the NHL. We will look at xGF, GF%, HDCF% and xGF/60 (expected goals for %, actual GF%, high danger corsi for, and expected goals per 60min of toi)

Let's start at 5v5. Zach Benson finished the year with an xGF of 51.25% and an actual GF% of 47.95% in 886mins of ice time. His HDCF% was 48.62%. At 5v5 on the Sabres that would rank him: 4th in xGF, 21st in GF%, 8th in HDCF%. One last stat is xGF/60 (lead by Jack Quinn with 2.96, so expect a massive year from him next season) where expected goals are adjusted for TOI. Benson is 10th on the team at 2.57 xGF/60. Now these stats are for alllllll the players we have and even though we might be a bit down on this team, we have some really good defenders. 

Next let's look at the same comparison but just forwards at 5v5: 3rd in xGF, 9th in GF%, 4th in HDCF% and 7th in xGF/60. So what do I think this means? Well, he knows how to generate chances but could be more efficient using his TOI to do it, that said, he's already really good at this. Second, he needs to better at finishing chances himself and also he will greatly benefit from a linemate like Quinn who can finish the chances Benson creates. That actual GF% shows IMPO a lack of finish and the need for better linemates, something he got as the season wound down. Finally, while his high danger corsi is 4th on the team (actually 2nd because Okposo and Mitts were above him, JJP is the other) his rate of finishing those chances and preventing HDCA drops to 8th, showing again there is work to be down both in limiting chances against better and finishing his chances better. 

Next, the PP. Benson got 75mins of PP time which ranks him 8th out of 9 forwards that got at least 50min of PP time. That said and this is really really important, 78min for Okposo, 70min for Olofsson, and 157min for Mitts are all up for grabs now. I suppose we can just take all of Okposo's and hand that directly to Quinn. Again we see the same issue with his actual GF% which is 50% meaning that the pp was bad for young Benson. He is last in GF%, xGF, HDCF%, and 2nd in HDCA/60.... so he is generating chances really well but I am going to guess that there are several PP where his unit ain't great. Now the good news is that I think a better coach will easily rectify that and his high danger generation is just a hair below Thompson per 60mins. Also the on ice sv% is abysmal at 66.67% which is over 12% lower than the next guy... so not great at all. Could be that Benson's game needs some work on the PP to help get these numbers back up or it could be that he was the victim of some truly questionable tending. 

What is the takeaway from all of this? At 5v5, Zach Benson is a borderline 2nd line winger already and there is good indication he is well on his way to 1st line winger levels of play. His shot needs to be improved and probably some of his passing but with better linemates such as Quinn and Cozens, I think we will see him adapt rapidly (anecdotally we did see this in the last bit of the season). That line only played 67mins together at 5v5 and while their actual goals ended up 4for and 5against, their xGF was 54.14 so they were tilting their ice in their teams favor. I would expect their actual goals to catch up. At the very least we have a small glimpse into the ability of Benson to be a 2nd line winger and the results aren't bad at all. 

Further we can see a player that consistently can title the ice in his teams favor 5v5 but wasn't perfect. I am not sure how to take his PP numbers but perhaps he just wasn't that good there. The PP will look completely different this season so that will be a something to look at. For a kid who played his rookie season as a true 18yr old in the NHL, being 3rd, 9th, 4th, and 7th on your team for forwards in xGF, GF%, HDCF% and xGF/60 is a great starting point. Skating and shooting need improvements but the underlying metrics are there and I feel as he gets stronger and faster, the actual metrics will start to climb up towards the predictive metrics. Hell of a year for a kid that went 13th overall and won't be 19 until May. Next up, we will look at JJ Peterka. 

[dudacek]

I gravitate to smart players who don’t quit.

He’s become my favourite player to watch on the team.

Really hope he can improve his shot. It stood out to me as a significant hole in his game.

His performance relative to physical maturity and experience was remarkable, something I’ve never seen before on this team. Housley, Dahlin and Turgeon were much bigger and/or obviously skilled and that’s more or less where the “regulars at 18” list ends. Guys of his size just don’t play in the NHL without hall-of-fame hands and feet, but he doesn’t seem to have either. So that says a lot about his will and hockey sense.

It’s hard to project his ceiling given the lack of comparables.

But it’s obvious the kid just gets hockey.

Edited April 25 by dudacek

[Rasmus_]

He's near the top for me as well.  I still have Dahlin and Peterka ahead, but he's currently the third favorite ahead of Cozens and Quinn.

Edited April 25 by Rasmus_

[Night Train]

I wish some of our Vets possessed half the hustle and grit this kid has. 

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It’s hard to project his ceiling given the lack of comparables.

But it’s obvious the kid just gets hockey.

I don't have a comparable, that's for sure. 18yr olds at his size, but with his game, in the NHL already and holding their own? That's gotta be a massively short list but I will say that in his draft year, Mitch Marner was a comparable I saw. I think they play different though. 

[GoPuckYourself]

Everytime he was on the ice it seemed like he was doing all the right things. I agree with others that he needs to work on his shot and skating but I think those will all improve with experience. My main nitpick with him is that he needs to get bigger and I don't mean grow a few inches but good for him if he does lol He needs to add on some muscle because he went down very easily at times but again I think he'll continue with a nutritionist and get to where he needs to be. 

What I really liked about his game was he never hesitated going in front of the net and although he knows he isn't the biggest or toughest guy out there he's a scrapper and stood up for himself when needed to. There is so much in his game that he can change so I'm looking forward to see what a real NHL HC and assistants can do for his game.

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't have a comparable, that's for sure. 18yr olds at his size, but with his game, in the NHL already and holding their own? That's gotta be a massively short list but I will say that in his draft year, Mitch Marner was a comparable I saw. I think they play different though. 

And Marner didn’t play as an 18-year, but put up 60 at 19 as a rookie.

The size matches, but Marner’s got that Housley thing, where his skating agility and puckhandling are so, so good.

Zach doesn’t have that. But he’s got something.

I keep coming back to Marchand without the elevated ***** element.

He’s smarter and more competitive than anyone he matches up against and just finds a way.

[That Aud Smell]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Zach doesn’t have that. But he’s got something.

That carny's got jam, man.

Jokes aside (I suspect he'd punch me in my fat face if I called him a carny): I just love watching him play. Dude's got that it factor. He will be a crucial factor the next time the Sabres win a playoff series - calling it now.

[darksabre]

Dude has that Danny Briere stuff behind the net 

[That Aud Smell]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I keep coming back to Marchand without the elevated ***** element.

[Pimlach]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I gravitate to smart players who don’t quit.

He’s become my favourite player to watch on the team.

Really hope he can improve his shot. It stood out to me as a significant hole in his game.

His performance relative to physical maturity and experience was remarkable, something I’ve never seen before on this team. Housley, Dahlin and Turgeon were much bigger and/or obviously skilled and that’s more or less where the “regulars at 18” list ends. Guys of his size just don’t play in the NHL without hall-of-fame hands and feet, but he doesn’t seem to have either. So that says a lot about his will and hockey sense.

It’s hard to project his ceiling given the lack of comparables.

But it’s obvious the kid just gets hockey.

You said it all in the first sentence - smart and doesn't quit.  

No, he doesn't have HoF hands and feet, certainly not impressive size - it is all heart and hockey sense.   He reminds me of Marchand and that type of player. Players that that find a way to win and make their team better.  

He can top out at 5'11 and 185'ish by 25, which is decent size for a wing.   By then he will be a 7 year vet and just reaching his prime.  

This guy was a steal at 13.

What really impressed me is he fought through the rookie wall.  He played a lot of games at the highest level in the world and he got better by the last 2 months.  

[Rasmus_]

Great write up LG.

 

[Drag0nDan]

Now if he can just figure out how to stay out of the box 😄

[That Aud Smell]

24 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

Now if he can just figure out how to stay out of the box 😄

It was downright weird how much the refs hated the kid.

[LGR4GM]

Sidenote: Benson had a 11.22sh% this season which is higher than I thought. 

3 hours ago, darksabre said:

Dude has that Danny Briere stuff behind the net 

do I mean the poster or Briere?!?!?!????

[inkman]

3 hours ago, darksabre said:

Dude has that Danny Briere stuff behind the net 

He’s not quite as water buggy but his hockey IQ and guile are off the charts. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

The fact that Benson was in our top 6 forwards this season is an indictment on the GM and the other players on the roster.  As much promise this kid has, at it's a ton, he should not have been in the NHL this season.  It was terrible asset management and it didn't make the team better.

He should have been in the CHL completing his 4th year in the CHL and then he could play in the AHL or NHL this coming season on the 1st year of his ELC.  Just dumb.  

Did the kid show he could play in the NHL?  Yes his did, but he was often knocked off the puck and took dumb penalty after dumb penalty.  He was not physically ready of the NHL game and it showed all season.  I'm not sure he'll be physically ready next season either because he is only 19 and not yet physically mature.  Sadly, he won't be eligible to be sent down to the A if he again isn't physically because of his age.  Oh well!

I'm sorry, but while I like some of what I saw from Benson this season, Benson's production was 224th among NHL forwards last season.  His p/gp of players with 41 or more games last season was 225th (tied with Greenway) at .42 pts p/gp.  That was 4th line production.  I also think the analytics place him in the top 9 for the Sabres, but considering how bad the offense was this season, that isn't much to write home about.

Do I think Benson has top 6 potential?  Yes I do, but in 2025/26 just in time for his next contract.

 

Edited April 25 by GASabresIUFAN

[Brawndo]

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

His 26 EVP was 201st among NHL forwards last season who played 41 or more games.  Still 4th line production.

[K-9]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The fact that Benson was in our top 6 forwards this season is an indictment on the GM and the other players on the roster.  As much promise this kid has, at it's a ton, he should not have been in the NHL this season.  It was terrible asset management and it didn't make the team better.

He should have been in the CHL completing his 4th year in the CHL and then he could play in the AHL or NHL this coming season on the 1st year of his ELC.  Just dumb.  

Did the kid show he could play in the NHL?  Yes his did, but he was often knocked off the puck and took dumb penalty after dumb penalty.  He was not physically ready of the NHL game and it showed all season.  I'm not sure he'll be physically ready next season either because he is only 19 and not yet physically mature.  Sadly, he won't be eligible to be sent down to the A if he again isn't physically because of his age.  Oh well!

I'm sorry, but while I like some of what I saw from Benson this season, Benson's production was 224th among NHL forwards last season.  His p/gp of players with 41 or more games last season was 225th (tied with Greenway) at .42 pts p/gp.  That was 4th line production.  I also think the analytics place him in the top 9 for the Sabres, but considering how bad the offense was this season, that isn't much to write home about.

Do I think Benson has top 6 potential?  Yes I do, but in 2025/26 just in time for his next contract.

 

Might want to review all the game videos because Benson won far more puck battles than he lost this season. He knows how to leverage his stature against bigger opponents and he did that routinely along the boards, the few times he was knocked on his butt notwithstanding.

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The fact that Benson was in our top 6 forwards this season is an indictment on the GM and the other players on the roster.  As much promise this kid has, at it's a ton, he should not have been in the NHL this season.  It was terrible asset management and it didn't make the team better.

He should have been in the CHL completing his 4th year in the CHL and then he could play in the AHL or NHL this coming season on the 1st year of his ELC.  Just dumb.  

Did the kid show he could play in the NHL?  Yes his did, but he was often knocked off the puck and took dumb penalty after dumb penalty.  He was not physically ready of the NHL game and it showed all season.  I'm not sure he'll be physically ready next season either because he is only 19 and not yet physically mature.  Sadly, he won't be eligible to be sent down to the A if he again isn't physically because of his age.  Oh well!

I'm sorry, but while I like some of what I saw from Benson this season, Benson's production was 224th among NHL forwards last season.  That was 4th line production.  I also think the analytics place him in the top 9 for the Sabres, but considering how bad the offense was this season, that isn't much to write home about.

Do I think Benson has top 6 potential?  Yes I do, but in 2025/26 just in time for his next contract.

 

Not sure what’s up with your math, but there are 192 top 6 positions open in the NHL (6x32).

224th is upper-end 3rd line production.

Benson’s 28 even-strength points ranked 184th. Guys around him: Elias Lindholm, Jake Debrusk, Dawson Mercer, Andrew Copp, David Perron, Mats Zuccarello and Anton Lundell.

And that doesn’t even take into account his chops defensively.

I also don’t agree with your knock off the puck comments. Did it happen? Absolutely, but I also saw lots of instances where he won pucks along the boards and made plays in heavy traffic.

Looked me like he won more battles than he lost.

This is just a bad take. He was clearly NHL-ready. 

Edited April 25 by dudacek

[spndnchz]

He’s not 170 lbs

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

He’s not 170 lbs

as in he is heavier or lighter? 

[Thorner]

Good thread

I agree with the sentiment of both Liger’s and GA’s posts, tbh. Benson was certainly great relatively (to other Sabres, to rookies in general), and yes, the former part of that relatively is damning regarding the roster we iced this season. Of course, none of that reflects poorly on Benson who was nothing but a bright spot.

No, they shouldn’t game plan on Benson routinely skating in the T-6 next season 

[spndnchz]

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

as in he is heavier or lighter? 

185