Off-season Game Plan 2024

[Archie Lee]

23 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Age is not necessarily an accurate reflection of experience. Cozens is a young player but I don't consider him to be an inexperienced player. JJP is a young player but he's had enough playing time where he should not have significant problems due to his inexperience. The number of games Quinn has played has been limited because of injuries. But he has more than enough experience to play well against experienced NHL players. The same argument applies to Samuelsson. 

There is no question that many of our young players were rushed to the NHL. It was obvious that some were rushed before they were ready. The Sabres were rebuilding so rushing them made more sense than it would for a team contending for the cup. It's now not about the future; it's about the present. We are at a point where being an inexperienced team or a grizzly veteran team should be used as an excuse. Now you simply get judged on your record. No more excuses. 

It is not that simple in my view. You are certainly correct that as individuals, all of our young NHL players could play roles on playoff teams. Byram and McLeod fit in our young player group by age. Combined they have over 80 games of playoff experience. Dahlin, Power, Cozens, even Krebs in my view, could trade places with such players and play as important, or more important, of a role on contending teams.

The question doesn’t relate to the individual though. It’s about the collective. As a team, have we reached a critical mass of talent, experience, and maturity, to reasonably be projected as a playoff team?  The clear answer is: No.

I’m not making excuses for our owner or GM.  Mostly I am just a little disappointed that we are again going to go into a season where, for success, so much needs to go right that has not consistently gone right before. 

We have certainly earned our position of being projected to be bad until we are good. 

[dudacek]

I read years ago that NHL executives see the 200-game mark as roughly the point where a player has enough NHL repetition to where he should be able to "get it", as in age stops being an excuse. My eye test agrees.

Our core players Thompson, Tuch, Cozens and Dahlin are well past that.

Peterka, Byram, Power, Samuelsson will be passing that mark this year.

Support players like Zucker, Jokiharju, Laffery, Clifton, McLeod and Greenway are by and large veterans

By mid-season, Benson and Quinn should be the only "kids" on the roster.

The time for development is past for this team. It's time for this group to grow up and be what they can be.

Edited July 12 by dudacek

[Archie Lee]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I read years ago that NHL executives see the 200-game mark as roughly the point where a player has enough NHL repetition to where he should be able to "get it", as in age stops being an excuse. My eye test agrees.

Our core players Thompson, Tuch, Cozens and Dahlin are well past that.

Peterka, Byram, Power, Samuelsson will be passing that mark this year.

Support players like Zucker, Jokiharju, Laffery, Clifton, McLeod and Greenway are by and large veterans

By mid-season, Benson and Quinn should be the only "kids" on the roster.

The time for development is past for this team. It's time for this group to grow up and be what they can be.

I think it is one thing to have a couple of young players in the line-up who have reached the 200 game mark (give or take), and to look at those kids and say: no more excuses.  I think it is quite another thing to have 6-8 such kids in your line-up.

Edited July 12 by Archie Lee

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I think it is one thing to have a couple of young players in the line-up who have reached the 200 game mark (give or take), and to look at those kids and say: no more excuses.  I think it is quite another thing to have 6-8 such kids in your line-up.

The 6 or 8 being Quinn, Peterka, Benson, Power, Samuelsson, Byram, and Krebs?

Not if you actually buy in to the 200 games thing. If you do, Krebs is no different than Lafferty.

Also, Byram and Samuelsson are shy in terms of games played because of injury, but these guys are entering their 5th year pro. They've been around.

The 3rd or 4th year breakout is a real, demonstrable thing.

To me, the fact we have 6 or 8 of these guys should not be cause for trepidation, it should be cause for hope.

I pulled the roster of the 08/09 Chicago Blackhawks, the year where the Hawks moved from non-playoff team to contender. These are their top 15 scorers and their ages.

• Havlat 27
• Kane 19
• Toews 20
• Versteeg 22
• Campbell 29
• Ladd 22
• Bolland 22
• Sharp 26
• Keith 25
• Barker 22
• Byfuglien 23
• Seabrook 23
• Brouwer 23
• Fraser 23
• Eager 24

It can be done.

 

[Taro T]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I read years ago that NHL executives see the 200-game mark as roughly the point where a player has enough NHL repetition to where he should be able to "get it", as in age stops being an excuse. My eye test agrees.

Our core players Thompson, Tuch, Cozens and Dahlin are well past that.

Peterka, Byram, Power, Samuelsson will be passing that mark this year.

Support players like Zucker, Jokiharju, Laffery, Clifton, McLeod and Greenway are by and large veterans

By mid-season, Benson and Quinn should be the only "kids" on the roster.

The time for development is past for this team. It's time for this group to grow up and be what they can be.

And, rightly or wrongly, Adams has set up a large scale experiment to see whether it is in fact the 200 game threshold that NHL quality players need to reach to "get it" as you say; or whether they need to be at least 23 or 24 to be "getting it," or whether it's a combination of the 2.

Because it is really rare for a team to be this dependent on young (early mid-20's and younger) players in key roles.  Common sense says the team is still too young.  But, as you mentioned, the team ISN'T too inexperienced (at least not in RS action; there are still an awful lot waiting to pop that cherry).  Can the experience trump the youthfulness?  Adams seems to be betting his job on the answer to that being 'yes.'

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And, rightly or wrongly, Adams has set up a large scale experiment to see whether it is in fact the 200 game threshold that NHL quality players need to reach to "get it" as you say; or whether they need to be at least 23 or 24 to be "getting it," or whether it's a combination of the 2.

Because it is really rare for a team to be this dependent on young (early mid-20's and younger) players in key roles.  Common sense says the team is still too young.  But, as you mentioned, the team ISN'T too inexperienced (at least not in RS action; there are still an awful lot waiting to pop that cherry).  Can the experience trump the youthfulness?  Adams seems to be betting his job on the answer to that being 'yes.'

This is what the "no-blockng" thing in Granato's 1st 2 full seasons was all about: force-feeding the first wave (Dahlin, Thompson) the experience, setting them up to lead when the 2nd wave arrives.

Which — according to the 200 games thing — should start happening right about now, assuming he was right about the players he's bet on.

God, I hope he was right because I can't take another 4-year reset.

Edited July 12 by dudacek

[Archie Lee]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The 6 or 8 being Quinn, Peterka, Benson, Power, Samuelsson, Byram, and Krebs?

Not if you actually buy in to the 200 games thing. If you do, Krebs is no different than Lafferty.

Also, Byram and Samuelsson are shy in terms of games played because of injury, but these guys are entering their 5th year pro. They've been around.

The 3rd or 4th year breakout is a real, demonstrable thing.

To me, the fact we have 6 or 8 of these guys should not be cause for trepidation, it should be cause for hope.

I pulled the roster of the 08/09 Chicago Blackhawks, the year where the Hawks moved from non-playoff team to contender. These are their top 15 scorers and their ages.

• Havlat 27
• Kane 19
• Toews 20
• Versteeg 22
• Campbell 29
• Ladd 22
• Bolland 22
• Sharp 26
• Keith 25
• Barker 22
• Byfuglien 23
• Seabrook 23
• Brouwer 23
• Fraser 23
• Eager 24

It can be done.

 

Well, I would put Dahlin, Cozens, UPL and Levi (if he is on the team) in there as well.  I know you think Dahlin and Cozens are long-since graduated from this group based on experience, but I think part of this is are they ready to be the players who lead a group that is this young. Dahlin and Cozens are without question ready to play important roles on contending NHL teams, but I'm not convinced they are ready to have the pressure of being the go-to, most important players and leaders on a team that is made up of so many players less talented, less experienced and less mature than they are.  The Sabres won't be asking Dahlin and Cozens to do the same as Dallas asks of Heiskanen and Hintz or as Colorado asks of Makar and Mittelstadt.  We will be asking a lot more.

I'm not trying to be a smart Alec with this, but I take it then that you see us as a playoff team?  

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This is what the "no-blockng" thing in Granato's 1st 2 full seasons was all about: force-feeding the first wave (Dahlin, Thompson) the experience, setting them up to lead when the 2nd wave arrives.

Which — according to the 200 games thing — should start happening right about now, assuming he was right about the players he's bet on.

God, I hope he was right because I can't take another 4-year reset.

Amen to that, brother.

Thing is, IF this does blow up in Adams' face again, a new GM wouldn't be starting out with a tank quality NHL roster and a LT contender's prospect pool like the past 2 (or arguably 3) GM's had to deal with.  There's too much here for somebody COMPETENT to need an ADDITIONAL 3-4 years from here.  But at this point, a full baker's dozen years into the abyss; not even wanting to suffer another 1-2 year reset.

Make it f'n' happen NOW.

[JohnC]

33 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Well, I would put Dahlin, Cozens, UPL and Levi (if he is on the team) in there as well.  I know you think Dahlin and Cozens are long-since graduated from this group based on experience, but I think part of this is are they ready to be the players who lead a group that is this young. Dahlin and Cozens are without question ready to play important roles on contending NHL teams, but I'm not convinced they are ready to have the pressure of being the go-to, most important players and leaders on a team that is made up of so many players less talented, less experienced and less mature than they are.  The Sabres won't be asking Dahlin and Cozens to do the same as Dallas asks of Heiskanen and Hintz or as Colorado asks of Makar and Mittelstadt.  We will be asking a lot more.

I'm not trying to be a smart Alec with this, but I take it then that you see us as a playoff team?  

I respectfully but strenuously disagree with the notion that this team isn't experienced enough to be a playoff team. As I stated in my prior post, this is a relatively young roster but it is more than experienced enough. The lower two lines were reconstituted from the outside. From an age and experienced perspective those players have reached the sweet spot (noted by @dudacek). Our young players on the top two lines have enough experience to be genuine top two line players (JJP, Quinn, Cozens, Tage, Tuch).  I'm hoping that another 2nd line forward can be added to the mix before the season starts. If not, you go with what you got and draw from the system. 

I'm not foolish enough to consider this team a Cup contending team. But I do see it as a lower qualifying playoff team. Much of that depends on the quality of goaltending. If UPL plays at the same level he did when he took over the reigns as the #1 goalie, there should be no excuses not to qualify for the playoffs. Am I asking for too much? No!

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

 

I'm not trying to be a smart Alec with this, but I take it then that you see us as a playoff team?  

No, I see a long-term contender if Adams is right about Thompson Quinn Peterka Cozens Power Byram Samuelsson and one of UPL/Levi. I’m comfortable I know who Dahlin and Tuch are, the rest are open questions.

My point is the time for patience for most of these guys is past. This is the season where most of them have to stop being “really good some day” and show us who they are.

Edited July 12 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

The 6 or 8 being Quinn, Peterka, Benson, Power, Samuelsson, Byram, and Krebs?

Not if you actually buy in to the 200 games thing. If you do, Krebs is no different than Lafferty.

Also, Byram and Samuelsson are shy in terms of games played because of injury, but these guys are entering their 5th year pro. They've been around.

The 3rd or 4th year breakout is a real, demonstrable thing.

To me, the fact we have 6 or 8 of these guys should not be cause for trepidation, it should be cause for hope.

I pulled the roster of the 08/09 Chicago Blackhawks, the year where the Hawks moved from non-playoff team to contender. These are their top 15 scorers and their ages.

• Havlat 27
• Kane 19
• Toews 20
• Versteeg 22
• Campbell 29
• Ladd 22
• Bolland 22
• Sharp 26
• Keith 25
• Barker 22
• Byfuglien 23
• Seabrook 23
• Brouwer 23
• Fraser 23
• Eager 24

It can be done.

 

Their GM was smart enough to bring in Soupy and then Hossa the following season.  We are still waiting for Adams to bring in a top player in his prime to get his team over the top.

[Doohicksie]

The Hockey Guy:  "We've been waiting for Buffalo to get better since this channel started.  Maybe it's my fault."

 

Edited July 12 by Doohickie

[Warriorspikes51]

I know Trouba struggled a bit last year, but he's still only 30.

We don't anyone in the same ballpark as his level of physicality. 

I'd gladly trade for him.  We are still WAY too soft on defense 

 

[LGR4GM]

47 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I know Trouba struggled a bit last year, but he's still only 30.

We don't anyone in the same ballpark as his level of physicality. 

I'd gladly trade for him.  We are still WAY too soft on defense 

 

Dahlin out hit him last year. So did Clifton. 

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Dahlin out hit him last year. So did Clifton. 

But those hits weren’t dirty cheap shots so they don’t count towards being tough😳

[Thorner]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

This is what the "no-blockng" thing in Granato's 1st 2 full seasons was all about: force-feeding the first wave (Dahlin, Thompson) the experience, setting them up to lead when the 2nd wave arrives.

Which — according to the 200 games thing — should start happening right about now, assuming he was right about the players he's bet on.

God, I hope he was right because I can't take another 4-year reset.

 

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

I read years ago that NHL executives see the 200-game mark as roughly the point where a player has enough NHL repetition to where he should be able to "get it", as in age stops being an excuse. My eye test agrees.

Our core players Thompson, Tuch, Cozens and Dahlin are well past that.

Peterka, Byram, Power, Samuelsson will be passing that mark this year.

Support players like Zucker, Jokiharju, Laffery, Clifton, McLeod and Greenway are by and large veterans

By mid-season, Benson and Quinn should be the only "kids" on the roster.

The time for development is past for this team. It's time for this group to grow up and be what they can be.

It’s been time for a while. The time for development is long past. You said last offseason the time was now. Reason Adams is on the hot seat is because this is his mulligan 

Edited July 13 by Thorny

[GASabresIUFAN]

I didn’t know where to put this article, but this seemed to be the best to put it.

https://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/former-sabres-quickly-found-work-as-free-agents-this-summer/

Hoppe is talking about all the players KA moved on from and how they quickly found new jobs.  The most interesting thing about the article is Girgensons turning down KA’s contract offer to stay for a 3 year 850K per season deal in TB.

The other takeaway was how little our former players were worth on the market and how much we were overpaying.  Skinner goes from 9 mill to 3.  Olofsson falls from 4.75 to 1.075, Johnson slips from 3.25 to 1, Z drops from 2.5 to .850, Jost from 2 to .775, Comrie falls from 1.8 to .825, and Robinson drops from 1.6 to .950.  Outside of Skinner and Robinson,who was acquired to help injury depth, the rest were unforced errors.  This board was unanimous in trading VO and Comrie.  We were also nearly unanimous in asking Adams to move on from Z and Jost.  Johnson was a vet UFA and there were real questions about whether he had anything left. 

All told we paid 24.9 million for players now playing for 8.475.  We can also add keeping KO on the unforced error list.

Just think how much better last season might have been if he had allocated 15-16 mill to better players.

Edited July 27 by GASabresIUFAN

[French Collection]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I didn’t know where to put this article, but this seemed to be the best to put it.

https://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/former-sabres-quickly-found-work-as-free-agents-this-summer/

Hoppe is talking about all the players KA moved on from and how they quickly found new jobs.  The most interesting thing about the article is Girgensons turning down KA’s contract offer to stay for a 3 year 850K per season deal in TB.

The other takeaway was how little our former players were worth on the market and how much we were overpaying.  Skinner goes from 9 mill to 3.  Olofsson falls from 4.75 to 1.075, Johnson slips from 3.25 to 1, Z drops from 2.5 to .850, Jost from 2 to .775, Comrie falls from 1.8 to .825, and Robinson drops from 1.6 to .950.  Outside of Skinner and Robinson,who was acquired to help injury depth, the rest were unforced errors.  This board was unanimous in trading VO and Comrie.  We were also nearly unanimous in asking Adams to move on from Z and Jost.  Johnson was a vet UFA and there were real questions about whether he had anything left. 

All told we paid 24.9 million for players now playing for 8.475.  We can also add keeping KO on the unforced error list.

That is a significant drop in salary for all of them.

I have to say Skinner could get $5-6M on the open market. He is still getting paid by Buffalo and wanted to play with McJesus. The others are about right, Girgs was definitely overpaid. VO negotiated after a terrible season, he could earn a lot more with a better role.

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I didn’t know where to put this article, but this seemed to be the best to put it.

https://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/former-sabres-quickly-found-work-as-free-agents-this-summer/

Hoppe is talking about all the players KA moved on from and how they quickly found new jobs.  The most interesting thing about the article is Girgensons turning down KA’s contract offer to stay for a 3 year 850K per season deal in TB.

The other takeaway was how little our former players were worth on the market and how much we were overpaying.  Skinner goes from 9 mill to 3.  Olofsson falls from 4.75 to 1.075, Johnson slips from 3.25 to 1, Z drops from 2.5 to .850, Jost from 2 to .775, Comrie falls from 1.8 to .825, and Robinson drops from 1.6 to .950.  Outside of Skinner and Robinson,who was acquired to help injury depth, the rest were unforced errors.  This board was unanimous in trading VO and Comrie.  We were also nearly unanimous in asking Adams to move on from Z and Jost.  Johnson was a vet UFA and there were real questions about whether he had anything left. 

All told we paid 24.9 million for players now playing for 8.475.  We can also add keeping KO on the unforced error list.

Just think how much better last season might have been if he had allocated 15-16 mill to better players.

I do feel caveats must be added to pretty much all of the players mentioned. For starters, all of them are 1 year older now so in the case of guys like Girgs and Johnson; it will go down more often than not eventually. 
 

Girgs was overpaid but part of his lower contract AAV is due to it being 3 years long and Tampa having less taxes to contend with. He’s making about 1.25 x 3 in Buffalo comparatively. 
 

Erik Johnson was a vet pickup for leadership, to get him required overpayment in cap. 
 

Olofsson’s contract is a show-me deal after his past two seasons have shown a consistent decline in numbers and effectiveness. He made 4+ on his huge goal scoring years leading to an injury that hampered his prowess. Seeing as he’s making less than a quarter his previous contract gave, even half retention must not of worked in trade attempts.

Skinner was 6/7mil winger making 9mil. The buyout gives him 2.5mil a year. He’s making 3mil in Edmonton and gets to play with McDavid. His real salary is more akin to 5.5mil. 
 

As for Jost, Robinson and Comrie; 1mil differences on bot 6 and back ups is merely trying to wring water from a rock. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

I do feel caveats must be added to pretty much all of the players mentioned. For starters, all of them are 1 year older now so in the case of guys like Girgs and Johnson; it will go down more often than not eventually. 
 

Girgs was overpaid but part of his lower contract AAV is due to it being 3 years long and Tampa having less taxes to contend with. He’s making about 1.25 x 3 in Buffalo comparatively. 
 

Erik Johnson was a vet pickup for leadership, to get him required overpayment in cap. 
 

Olofsson’s contract is a show-me deal after his past two seasons have shown a consistent decline in numbers and effectiveness. He made 4+ on his huge goal scoring years leading to an injury that hampered his prowess. Seeing as he’s making less than a quarter his previous contract gave, even half retention must not of worked in trade attempts.

Skinner was 6/7mil winger making 9mil. The buyout gives him 2.5mil a year. He’s making 3mil in Edmonton and gets to play with McDavid. His real salary is more akin to 5.5mil. 
 

As for Jost, Robinson and Comrie; 1mil differences on bot 6 and back ups is merely trying to wring water from a rock. 

Sounds like a bunch of excuses.  For Z, going from 2.5 million to 850K isn't going to made up by the Florida tax savings.  LOL.

KA should have traded VO and Comrie before last season even if he had to eat huge pieces of their contracts.  He should have never re-signed Jost, Z or KO and certainly not for the $ he paid them.  That would have given him potential about 14 million $ invest in better players.

I'm also really annoyed that he tried to make the same mistake again with Z and offered him a new deal.  KA's pro evaluations have been awful so far, and the best thing you can say about most of the new guys is that won't cost to much cap wise, except Zucker, who potentially is Eric Johnson 2.0.

 

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Sounds like a bunch of excuses.  For Z, going from 2.5 million to 850K isn't going to made up by the Florida tax savings.  LOL.

KA should have traded VO and Comrie before last season even if he had to eat huge pieces of their contracts.  He should have never re-signed Jost, Z or KO and certainly not for the $ he paid them.  That would have given him potential about 14 million $ invest in better players.

I'm also really annoyed that he tried to make the same mistake again with Z and offered him a new deal.  KA's pro evaluations have been awful so far, and the best thing you can say about most of the new guys is that won't cost to much cap wise, except Zucker, who potentially is Eric Johnson 2.0.

 

I said caveats, not full fledged excusing.

Girgensons was overpaid, at 2.5mil but he’d of been more inline at 1.25mil.

Again as I said, Olofsson with 50% retention was still higher than what he signed for this year. I highly doubt we had any intention of adding a sweetener or paying for a 3rd team in order to jettison him.

You are also likely giving Zucker far less credit than he deserves.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

I said caveats, not full fledged excusing.

Girgensons was overpaid, at 2.5mil but he’d of been more inline at 1.25mil.

Again as I said, Olofsson with 50% retention was still higher than what he signed for this year. I highly doubt we had any intention of adding a sweetener or paying for a 3rd team in order to jettison him.

You are also likely giving Zucker far less credit than he deserves.

Do you really think Zucker will come close to 50 points playing on a 3rd line with McLeod? That's the type of production a $5million contract should buy. I don't mind the Zucker signing as long as he has something left in the tank.  I said the same last year for Johnson.  However, I've learned that the Sabres pro personnel dept is terrible and they make awful decisions on trades and UFA signings.  I have zero faith in their ability to sign the right people.

Edited July 28 by GASabresIUFAN

[Brawndo]

On 7/27/2024 at 3:46 PM, thewookie1 said:
 

Olofsson’s contract is a show-me deal after his past two seasons have shown a consistent decline in numbers and effectiveness. He made 4+ on his huge goal scoring years leading to an injury that hampered his prowess. Seeing as he’s making less than a quarter his previous contract gave, even half retention must not of worked in trade attempts.

Especially when Pegula wouldn’t authorize any salary retention 

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Especially when Pegula wouldn’t authorize any salary retention 

Soooo frustrating, because they really could've horded some extra assets if ownership were willing to take on some salary while they were at the cap floor these past few years.  And now that opportunity is pretty much gone.

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Especially when Pegula wouldn’t authorize any salary retention 

Supposedly he was willing to in regards to Skinner which is curious