Off-season Game Plan 2024

[LGR4GM]

53 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Hmmm. Never said Cozens wasn’t good or that Quinn and Benson were bad and certainly never said anyone was dragging anyone else around the ice. I did say our young-not-yet-fully-formed 2nd line centre has played the majority of the last two years with also very young-not-yet-fully-formed wingers. I think it stands to reason that he (and the wingers in question for that matter, but the topic was Cozens) would have benefited from playing with talented more experienced players.

There are not a lot of playoff teams featuring 2nd lines with an average age of 20 or 21. 

And yet Cozens played better with Quinn, Benson, and Peterka than he did with Greenway or Tuch.

Good news, this year the Cozens line will be 23, 23, and 19! So progress?

Edited July 9 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

47 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Counselor, you appear to be arguing for the point of arguing.  Paraphrasing you 'they are going to roll 4 lines, the proof being they paid ~$4MM for the 4th line' but also 'no way will the bottom lines get used a lot.'  Which from this perspective looks an AWFUL LOT like 'there will be a bit of a rolling 4 lines mojo.'

Rolling 4 lines doesn’t mean the 4 lines all play the same amount 5 on 5.  It just means that the bottom 6 get consistent PT.  If you assume about 10 minutes a game of PP/PK play per game how do you allocate the 50 minutes 5 on 5?  Would it really a surprise you if the time is generally allocated 15, 15, 10, 10? 

Edited July 9 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Rolling 4 lines doesn’t mean the 4 lines all play the same amount 5 on 5.  It just means that the bottom 6 get consistent PT.  If you assume about 10 minutes a game of PP/PK play per game how do you allocate the 50 minutes 5 on 5?  Would it really a surprise you if the time is generally allocated 15, 15, 10, 10? 

Yes. Yes it would. Mainly because that's only 50 minutes of ice time

Edit: just so it's clear, I'm joking

Edited July 9 by LGR4GM

[Taro T]

27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Rolling 4 lines doesn’t mean the 4 lines all play the same amount 5 on 5.  It just means that the bottom 6 get consistent PT.  If you assume about 10 minutes a game of PP/PK play per game how do you allocate the 50 minutes 5 on 5?  Would it really a surprise you if the time is generally allocated 15, 15, 10, 10? 

Really?  Ya don' say.  

[Thorny]

On 7/9/2024 at 10:07 AM, LGR4GM said:

Speaking of lineup stuff, around here Dylan Cozens gets roasted constantly for not being a #2 center. I also some say things about Detroit being ahead of Buffalo.

Both of these might be true but I just want to toss out that Detroit's #2 center is JT Compher who had 19g, 29a, 48pts last year. Cozens 18g, 29a, 47pts. Compher is 29 and Cozens is 23. Maybe we aren't so poor at 2c as we think, especially when I think last years Cozens wasn't the real version. 

I don’t think we are poor there as I like DC but the Detroit comp does nothing for the argument lol

Detroit is poor there 

[PerreaultForever]

On 7/9/2024 at 3:03 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Rolling 4 lines doesn’t mean the 4 lines all play the same amount 5 on 5.  It just means that the bottom 6 get consistent PT.  If you assume about 10 minutes a game of PP/PK play per game how do you allocate the 50 minutes 5 on 5?  Would it really a surprise you if the time is generally allocated 15, 15, 10, 10? 

I am hoping Ruff, with his experience, will be a better game manager and his lines and line combinations (including ice time) will be more situational and match up oriented. 

[dudacek]

Not sure if there is a better place to put this, but a large contingent of Sabres are training and holidaying in Switzerland right now.

Looks like Peterka has hooked them up with his private coaches at Dube Skills.

Mostly Euros, including Dahlin, UPL, Jokiharju, Kulich and Rosen, but Power and Mule also made the trip overseas to join them. More than just a business trip for Power apparently, because the kid got engaged.

Shots of them on ice and having fun out on the water and the golf course courtesy the Instagram account of old friend Oskari Laaksonen.

Edited July 11 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

 

 

[dudacek]

29 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

People need to keep in mind that this is partially a reflection of how young we were last year, and of old guys like Johnson and Okposo moving on.

The youngest new guy expected to be on the roster is McLeod at 24. The rest are all in their prime years, or in Zucker’s case, beyond that.

[Thorny]

45 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

This would be very disappointing. The youngest team in the league doesn’t make the playoffs. It’s not even close, either: only one team is even within a year.

it’s not like it’s binding, but there’s a demonstrable reason these trends exist so definitively and it’s one we’d need to break if these age projections are true 

stacking a 7 year rebuild by choice at the tail end of 9 years missing the playoffs is one of the most strikingly bad decisions in the history of the sport lol. Imagine being the *youngest team in the league, by choice* FIVE years into a build plan. 

Edited July 11 by Thorny

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

This would be very disappointing. The youngest team in the league doesn’t make the playoffs. It’s not even close, either: only one team is even within a year.

it’s not like it’s binding, but there’s a demonstrable reason these trends exist so definitively and it’s one we’d need to break if these age projections are true 

The only ways they weren’t going to come in at or near where they are was by signing a bunch of Okposo-age players instead who they did, or by flipping a number of kids like Benson, Quinn, Peterka and Power for a considerably older group.

That’s just the math of it all.

Edited July 11 by dudacek

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The only ways they weren’t going to come in at or near where they are was by signing a bunch of Okposo-age players instead who they did, or by flipping a number of kids like Benson, Quinn, Peterka and Power for a considerably older group.

That’s just the math of it all.

At what point in the process do you think they realized that by the mechanics of their plan they’d be icing the youngest roster in the nhl 5 years into said plan? Was it a conscious choice? The intended result? Was it made upon conception? Was it accidental? Or do they just not deem it relevant despite the overarching data? 

I think you are correct, I was hoping for different without delving in too deep but considering how much younger we are than EVERYONE it would have been difficult to alter that just this offseason. They’ve been headed in this direction for a good long while

[Weave]

Boston is younger than I expected.  Is their current rebuild going to be faster than out current rebuild?

[Thorny]

Just now, Weave said:

Boston is younger than I expected.  Is their current rebuild going to be faster than out current rebuild?

I keep telling people, if you believe in the necessity of a long form rebuild you’ve simply been sold and fallen for a myth 

Job security based strategy 

Those who can’t do, preach 

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

At what point in the process do you think they realized that by the mechanics of their plan they’d be icing the youngest roster in the nhl 5 years into said plan? Was it a conscious choice? The intended result? Was it made upon conception? Was it accidental? Or do they just not deem it relevant despite the overarching data? 

I think you are correct, I was hoping for different without delving in too deep but considering how much younger we are than EVERYONE it would have been difficult to alter that just this offseason. They’ve been headed in this direction for a good long while

The plan was very much to accelerate the development process of a select group of young talents so that they would all emerge at around the same time (theoretically, about now).

They insulated those kids with a handful of old guys and eventually the young guys emerged as the backbone of a contender.

Like these teams did:

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000331975.html

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000352009.html

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000552015.html

Of course it doesn’t alway work as well as it did for the above teams, but when it works, the team is usually good for a long time.

Are you just being rhetorical, because you’ve been arguing against it as unnecessary for quite a while?

 

Edited July 11 by dudacek

[Thorny]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The plan was very much to accelerate the development process of a select group of young talents so that they would all emerge at around the same time (theoretically, about now).

They insulated those kids with a handful of old guys and eventually the young guys emerged as the backbone of a contender.

Like these teams did:

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000331975.html

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000352009.html

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000552015.html

Of course it doesn’t alway work as well as it did for the above teams, but when it works, the team is usually good for a long time.

Are you just being rhetorical, because you’ve been arguing against it as unnecessary for quite a while?

 

Not being rhetorical at all, the questions generally fascinate me. It’s anecdotal I guess but being the youngest team in the 5th year of a plan seems inane to me . No idea how to look it up but I’d be surprised if it’s anything but uncommon for a successful build to take that form 

I mean the fact we haven’t made the playoffs yet 4 years in already proves it 

Edited July 11 by Thorny

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Not being rhetorical at all, the questions generally fascinate me. It’s anecdotal I guess but being the youngest team in the 5th year of a plan seems inane to me . No idea how to look it up but I’d be shocked if any successful build took that form 

I have no idea if they were the youngest, but I posted links to 3 successful teams of similar form: where the bulk of the key players are in similar places career-wise to where the Sabres core is now.

[Night Train]

Funny how things change. A year ago, it was " OMG, we need More Goalies ! Doomed ! "  ..and UPL goes out and plays better than anyone on the roster, keeping Levi in Rochester to improve..A good thing. Meanwhile, the rest of the team slumps.  Surprising to a degree on all fronts. 

Now we have a whole new set of concerns with Lindy ( yes, I think that's a big improvement ) and a different roster.

I get it.  A lot of tougher, faster players added.. but no big goal scorers it seems..We'll see how it looks come camp.

Can it work ? 

[sabrefanday1]

Gotta think losing Skinner and VO and their goals we may become a Jersey clone playing boring defensive style hockey. Can't say I look forward to that...preferred two years  when they scored lots and were at least exciting. I am not convinced that many on this team can suddenly learn the concept of playing defensive hockey good enough to actually succeed. 

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, sabrefanday1 said:

Gotta think losing Skinner and VO and their goals we may become a Jersey clone playing boring defensive style hockey. Can't say I look forward to that...preferred two years  when they scored lots and were at least exciting. I am not convinced that many on this team can suddenly learn the concept of playing defensive hockey good enough to actually succeed. 

Now is a good time to remind people that Jack Quinn, Jeff Skinner and Victor Olofsson combined for 40 goals last year.

How many do we expect this year from Jack Quinn, Jason Zucker and, say, Kulich as the spare scoring winger?

Personally would be shocked if Lindy has this group of players trapping all night long.

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, sabrefanday1 said:

Gotta think losing Skinner and VO and their goals we may become a Jersey clone playing boring defensive style hockey. Can't say I look forward to that...preferred two years  when they scored lots and were at least exciting. I am not convinced that many on this team can suddenly learn the concept of playing defensive hockey good enough to actually succeed. 

VO scored 7g last year and was on pace for only 11.48goals in a full 82 game season. We aren't losing anything by him being gone. 

[PASabreFan]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

The plan was very much to accelerate the development process of a select group of young talents so that they would all emerge at around the same time (theoretically, about now).

They insulated those kids with a handful of old guys and eventually the young guys emerged as the backbone of a contender.

Like these teams did:

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000331975.html

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000352009.html

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000552015.html

Of course it doesn’t alway work as well as it did for the above teams, but when it works, the team is usually good for a long time.

Are you just being rhetorical, because you’ve been arguing against it as unnecessary for quite a while?

 

The who contender now?

[mjd1001]

14 hours ago, sabrefanday1 said:

Gotta think losing Skinner and VO and their goals we may become a Jersey clone playing boring defensive style hockey. Can't say I look forward to that...preferred two years  when they scored lots and were at least exciting. I am not convinced that many on this team can suddenly learn the concept of playing defensive hockey good enough to actually succeed. 

Last year New Jersey was mid pack in goals scored (despite being ruined by injuries to their top players).   The year before that when they were healthy with Ruff, they were 4th in the league in goals.  Over the last 2 years they have outscored the Sabres.  I think when you say "Jersey clone", you aren't referring to the Devils now, but maybe the team they haven't been for years and years and years.

Now if you would have said the Islanders, that would make more sense, but Jersey? Not really.

[Archie Lee]

Of the last 10 players we acquired by trade or free agency (starting with Greenway) who are still on the roster and are likely to be regulars in their roles, 9 have played playoff games in the NHL. 269 combined. Many as recent as last season in the precise roles we are assigning to them. I’ve included Reimer as back-up to UPL and Gilbert as a 7-8 D in this (only Reimer and Zucker are 30 or older). 

The only other player we have who has been in the playoffs, is Tuch.

The average age of the projected remaining players is under 23.  That young group makes up most of our top 6 forwards and our top 4D and of course our starting goalie.  The oldest to start the year will be Thompson at 26. 

We remain incredibly young and inexperienced at key positions. If we don’t make the playoffs this year, it is not likely going to be because the bottom of our lineup wasn’t good enough, relative to a typical NHL team. 
 

 

Edited July 12 by Archie Lee

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Of the last 10 players we acquired by trade or free agency (starting with Greenway) who are still on the roster and are likely to be regulars in their roles, 9 have played playoff games in the NHL. 269 combined. Many as recent as last season in the precise roles we are assigning to them. I’ve included Reimer as back-up to UPL and Gilbert as a 7-8 D in this (only Reimer and Zucker are 30 or older). 

The only other player we have who has been in the playoffs, is Tuch.

The average age of the projected remaining players is under 23.  That young group makes up most of our top 6 forwards and our top 4D and of course our starting goalie.  The oldest to start the year will be Thompson at 26. 

We remain incredibly young and inexperienced at key positions. If we don’t make the playoffs this year, it is not likely going to be because the bottom of our lineup wasn’t good enough, relative to a typical NHL team. 
 

 

Age is not necessarily an accurate reflection of experience. Cozens is a young player but I don't consider him to be an inexperienced player. JJP is a young player but he's had enough playing time where he should not have significant problems due to his inexperience. The number of games Quinn has played has been limited because of injuries. But he has more than enough experience to play well against experienced NHL players. The same argument applies to Samuelsson. 

There is no question that many of our young players were rushed to the NHL. It was obvious that some were rushed before they were ready. The Sabres were rebuilding so rushing them made more sense than it would for a team contending for the cup. It's now not about the future; it's about the present. We are at a point where being an inexperienced team or a grizzly veteran team should be used as an excuse. Now you simply get judged on your record. No more excuses.