Off-season Game Plan 2024

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You're missing my point. Mitts had runway to get better. Skinner is 32, he's not changing or growing, he is what he is. You're also ignoring ppl have correctly evaluated what he is and wish to move on. I'd personally keep him until next summer and then buyout or trade him now. 

We both agree that he should be kept this year. We disagree on how to best utilize him this year. That's okay. TBD. 

[oddoublee]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

if they are morons for giving a NMC so if every other GM in the NHL.  Look at every roster in the NHL.  Go find a top 9 forward or a top 4 D on a veteran contract and you’ll see some type of NMC.  Adams gave Hall a full NTC on a one year deal. Yzerman is one the worst offenders. According to capfriendly, nearly every player we have discussed, like Larson, Karlsson, Gourde, Jeannot and Kerfoot all have at least a M-NTC.  Cirelli’s kicks in next season.  Even Connor Sheary has some trade protection. 

The truth is Adams should have tried to move Skinner at the deadline to a team desperate for scoring.  He should have retained 3 mill a season for the remainder of his deal as an inducement.  Other GMs find way to move players with NTCs. It’s time for Adams to grow a pair and find a solution.  

Agreed. The NMC was not the problem per se' - it was signing him to the contract they did in the first place. The ROR debacle allowed them to fleece themselves. That is why they were and are morons. 

[JohnC]

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/hosts/sabres-live

There is a segment within the link from WGR's Sabre Live having the hosts talking about players that the organization should consider. This is a 26 minute segment. Good discussion that parallels the discussion here.  

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, oddoublee said:

Agreed. The NMC was not the problem per se' - it was signing him to the contract they did in the first place. The ROR debacle allowed them to fleece themselves. That is why they were and are morons. 

This was Pegula's insistence was it not? 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

We both agree that he should be kept this year. We disagree on how to best utilize him this year. That's okay. TBD. 

as to how he should be used this year........

 

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

This was Pegula's insistence was it not? 

I doubt it was Pegula who demanded a full NMC. He’s at fault for being willing to pay Skinner 9mil since he didn’t want Botts to let him walk after scoring 40

[Thorny]

12 hours ago, JohnC said:

I'm aware of the dominant view that Skinner should be dealt or if necessary bought out. Why not simply keep him and put him on the first line? On that line it is not unrealistic to believe that he can score around 35 goals. Moving him up to the first line then allows you to move JJP to the second line with Cozens the center and Quinn on the other wing. That should be a very vibrant line. The issue then becomes who is going to be added on a third line that has Benson? 

It seems that Skinner has beeb dismissed as a player by many, just like Mitts was a few years back. He does have some liabilities but his biggest asset is that he is a goal scorer. Does his biggest asset make up for his limitations? I think so but most do not. 

He’s still a net positive to me, and non-negligible, at that. People never talk about his penalty differential. No, he’s not scoring on the PP (no one is), but if they ever figure out their PP strategy, they have to get on the PP first to utilize the strategy and Skinner is one of the best players in the league at drawing penalties.

Unless his salary is a hinderance to bringing in a better player outright next year, I definitely keep him on the roster: the aim is to win games and he’s not some JAG in that area 

Edited June 5 by Thorny

[Thorny]

7 hours ago, JohnC said:

You missed the point regarding the Mitts comparison. My central point regarding the Mitts scenario related to how too many people were locked in about in their assessment about him. The same dynamic appears to apply to the Skinner scenario. You are misinterpreting my point about him if you believe I'm talking about the long-term implications about him as a player on this team. My focus is on this upcoming season. 

Is Skinner a defensive liability? Maybe so, but not to the extent that many people believe it to be. In fact, I would argue that he is less of a defensive liability, or at the least not more, than JJP is. 

In my view, it is not out of the range of possibility that on the top line he can end up as a 30-35 goal scorer. And if allowed to play on the second PP unit, it is not inconceivable that he can approach the 40 goal mark. Others may scoff at that goal production but I don't. 

My overriding point is that more attention should be directed toward his offensive asset than his defensive liability. 

 

He’s definitively among our top 12 forwards, and it’s not close either 

I don’t care if Benson is on track to pass him at some point next year. Ridiculous hubristic you devalue the stretch of time he won’t have done so, yet. Let alone the guys who’s wont manage to all year 

Edited June 5 by Thorny

[JohnC]

19 minutes ago, Thorny said:

He’s still a net positive to me, and non-negligible, at that. People never talk about his penalty differential. No, he’s not scoring on the PP (no one is), but if they ever figure out their PP strategy, they have to get on the PP first to utilize the strategy and Skinner is one of the best players in the league at drawing penalties.

Unless his salary is a hinderance to bringing in a better player outright next year, I definitely keep him on the roster: the aim is to win games and he’s not some JAG in that area 

There is no question that this feisty player attracts the ire of the opposition resulting in penalties. (As you point out.) Skinner has some obvious deficiencies but on balance his offense compensates for them. (As you also point out.) This team attracts a lot of negative commentary related to its lapses in effort. The one thing that Skinner can't be criticized for is his consistent effort no matter what his role is. He's a full effort player in the games and in his preparation. In my opinion, he needs to be better utilized so his biggest asset (goal scoring) is maximized. 

[dudacek]

40 minutes ago, Thorny said:

He’s definitively among our top 12 forwards, and it’s not close either 

I don’t care if Benson is on track to pass him at some point next year. Ridiculous hubristic you devalue the stretch of time he won’t have done so, yet. Let alone the guys who’s wont manage to all year 

I think the sweet spot for Skinner's raw value is when he's around your #6F — if he can play 15 minutes a night mostly with good offensive players, but not necessarily against the other team's best.

Ideally for him, he's back with Tuch and Thompson again while Ruff creates a legitimate matchup line so that line doesn't have to consistently face the other team's best. I don't know if he's going to work on a 3rd line unless that line is with Roy and Vanek.

Put Skinner with guys who are too structured or can't create chaos and you're wasting his skill. Put him against skilled structure and he tends to freelance and collapse whatever structure you are trying to create, tilting the ice in the wrong direction. Put him in the offensive zone in situations where his unit is more talented than the opponent's unit, he will feast.

I fully expect Quinn to pass him this year, and it looked like Peterka may have passed him last year. That still makes him the #5F, which is pretty much where he can work.

But I have my doubts of Peterka and Cozens being two thirds of a shutdown line, and therefore how the creation of a shutdown line will effect him.

So I am concerned with all the talk of needing structure he will be squeezed out of a role where he can succeed by a more structured player.

It really depends on who the Sabres can acquire to flesh out the lineup.

Edited June 5 by dudacek

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the sweet spot for Skinner's raw value is when he's around your #6F — if he can play 15 minutes a night mostly with good offensive players, but not necessarily against the other team's best.

Ideally, he's back with Tuch and Thompson again while Ruff creates a legitimate matchup line so that line doesn't have to consistently face the other team's best. I don't know if he's going to work on a 3rd line unless that line is with Roy Vanek.

Put Skinner with guys who are too structured or can't create chaos and you're wasting his skill. Put him against skilled structure and he tends to freelance and collapse whatever structure you are trying to create, tilting the ice in the wrong direction. Put him in the offensive zone in situations where his unit is more talented than the opponent's unit, he will feast.

I fully expect Quinn to pass him this year, and it looked like Peterka may have passed him last year. That still makes him the #5F, which is fine.

But I am concerned with all the talk of needing structure he will be squeezed out of a role where he can succeed by a more structured player.

Which is why it's important for Adams to bring in another 2nd line W and a legit 3C.  You do that, and your top 2 lines are set (Peterka - Thompson - Tuch & Quinn - Cozens - New Guy) while Skinner ends up with Benson and legit 3C so he has players that don't leave him on an island but also gives him the opportunity to face the other team's 3rd pairing and either 2nd or 3rd line.  Prime feasting mode for a guy that often creates on his own.

Being on the 3rd line with guys that have demonstrated an ability to play well at this level (as opposed to Krebs and say a Jost) should work for him.  Heck, people forget that in October way back when he was clicking with Johanssen.

And that allows Greenway to be a key piece of building an Aisles style 4th line.  (And he can and would get bumped into the middle 6 when the situation called for it.)

[Thorny]

18 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Which is why it's important for Adams to bring in another 2nd line W and a legit 3C.  You do that, and your top 2 lines are set (Peterka - Thompson - Tuch & Quinn - Cozens - New Guy) while Skinner ends up with Benson and legit 3C so he has players that don't leave him on an island but also gives him the opportunity to face the other team's 3rd pairing and either 2nd or 3rd line.  Prime feasting mode for a guy that often creates on his own.

Being on the 3rd line with guys that have demonstrated an ability to play well at this level (as opposed to Krebs and say a Jost) should work for him.  Heck, people forget that in October way back when he was clicking with Johanssen.

And that allows Greenway to be a key piece of building an Aisles style 4th line.  (And he can and would get bumped into the middle 6 when the situation called for it.)

Really need a legit 3C. Would help the other guys fall into position by working that magic 

 

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

There is no question that this feisty player attracts the ire of the opposition resulting in penalties. (As you point out.) Skinner has some obvious deficiencies but on balance his offense compensates for them. (As you also point out.) This team attracts a lot of negative commentary related to its lapses in effort. The one thing that Skinner can't be criticized for is his consistent effort no matter what his role is. He's a full effort player in the games and in his preparation. In my opinion, he needs to be better utilized so his biggest asset (goal scoring) is maximized. 

Honestly I just wish he’d give his full effort and feistiness every game. When he’s jawing at the opposing players and jitterbugging around he’s a great player. His issue is when he isn’t feeling it, he’s practically worthless. 

Edited June 5 by thewookie1

[GASabresIUFAN]

The odds of Skinner being bought out are pretty slim.  I won't say none because Diggs got traded by the Bills so anything can happen.

Skinner is a black hole defensively, especially when he plays with lower level players. Placing him with Krebs late last season was a disaster.  

Skinner needs to play in the top 6 or with a very capable 3rd line center to maximize his value to the Sabres.  Acquiring someone like Monahan, Duchene or Karlsson might allow Skinner to be played on the 3rd line.  

@Taro T I'm not sure there is enough money for the Sabres to bring in a top 6 winger and a center capable of maximizing Skinner's ability on the 3rd line, while filling the other needs on the team.

I think we can accomplish much the same thing with a 3rd line of Skinner, Karlsson, and Savoie (assuming he's ready).  I'd still like to see Blueger signed for the 4th line center job.  Sign Blueger and you have a 4th line of Krebs, Blueger and Greenway.  I wouldn't mind also looking at Sam Lafferty instead of Krebs on the 4th line.  This gives us the ablility to push Greenway back into the top 9 if Savoie isn't ready.  To get Karlsson, I traded Rosen plus a 2nd in 2024 & a 3rd in 2025.

I used AFP for most of the contracts except I think we can re-sign UPL at 4 million (3 years) and Krebs at 1.25 (2 years).  I re-signed Bryson (2 years @ 1.25); signed Blueger (2 years & 2.25) and Lafferty (2 years at 2.5)

By bolstering the team with Karlson, I was forced to elevate Ryan Johnson to the 3rd pair with Clifton and pair Byram with Power.  

I ran this team on capfriendly and the cap hit came to 84.4 in 2024.

JJP TNT Tuch

Benson Cozens Quinn

Skinner Karlson Savoie

Lafferty Blueger Greenway (Krebs)

Dahlin Samuelsson

Power Byram

Johnson Clifton (Bryson)

UPL Levi

 

 

Edited June 5 by GASabresIUFAN

[Archie Lee]

23 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The odds of Skinner being bought out are pretty slim.  I won't say none because Diggs got traded by the Bills so anything can happen.

Skinner is a black hole defensively, especially when he plays with lower level players. Placing him with Krebs late last season was a disaster.  

Skinner needs to play in the top 6 or with a very capable 3rd line center to maximize his value to the Sabres.  Acquiring someone like Monahan, Duchene or Karlsson might allow Skinner to be played on the 3rd line.  

@Taro T I'm not sure there is enough money for the Sabres to bring in a top 6 winger and a center capable of maximizing Skinner's ability on the 3rd line, while filling the other needs on the team.

I think we can accomplish much the same thing with a 3rd line of Skinner, Karlsson, and Savoie (assuming he's ready).  I'd still like to see Blueger signed for the 4th line center job.  Sign Blueger and you have a 4th line of Krebs, Blueger and Greenway.  I wouldn't mind also looking at Sam Lafferty instead of Krebs on the 4th line.  This gives us the ablility to push Greenway back into the top 9 if Savoie isn't ready.  To get Karlsson, I traded Rosen plus a 2nd in 2024 & a 3rd in 2025.

I used AFP for most of the contracts except I think we can re-sign UPL at 4 million (3 years) and Krebs at 1.25 (2 years).  I re-signed Bryson (2 years @ 1.25); signed Blueger (2 years & 2.25) and Lafferty (2 years at 2.5)

By bolstering the team with Karlson, I was forced to elevate Ryan Johnson to the 3rd pair with Clifton and pair Byram with Power.  

I ran this team on capfriendly and the cap hit came to 84.4 in 2024.

JJP TNT Tuch

Benson Cozens Quinn

Skinner Karlson Savoie

Lafferty Blueger Greenway (Krebs)

Dahlin Samuelsson

Power Byram

Johnson Clifton (Bryson)

UPL Levi

 

 

There is a lot that is good in that line-up. There are 9 players though, who would be 23 or under to start the season. 5 in the top 9 forwards. That’s really young. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

34 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

There is a lot that is good in that line-up. There are 9 players though, who would be 23 or under to start the season. 5 in the top 9 forwards. That’s really young. 

I'm honestly more worried about the young D group.  I kind of want Byram to anchor the 3rd pair and for KA to find a defensive RHD to play with Power.

As to the forwards, adding Karlson, Lafferty and Blueger brings in much needed veteran presence, who, unlike Okposo and Girgensons, are still very productive players. Benson, JJP, Quinn all have 1-2 years of experience and given the improvement in Quinn (104 NHL games) and JJP (161 NHL games), I'm not really worried about the top 6.  Only Savoie would be a rookie and he is lining up with two 10+ year veterans.  Last year's team also featured 5 forwards 23 and under in Cozens, Benson, JJP, Quinn and Krebs.

The youth "issue" isn't going away anytime soon with Östlund, Kulich, Wahlberg and Rosen working their way to the NHL over the next 1-3 years.  

I actually need to redo the pairings

Dahlin Byram

Power Samuelsson

Johnson Clifton

Edited June 5 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

I doubt it was Pegula who demanded a full NMC. He’s at fault for being willing to pay Skinner 9mil since he didn’t want Botts to let him walk after scoring 40

No Skinner demanded it but as I understood it Skinner's greed went too far and JBot was going to walk. It was Pegula who insisted he sign the deal. That's how I remember it anyway but some of it may have been unsubstantiated. 

[dudacek]

I’m really curious how Lindy plans to implement structure when so many of his key parts haven’t shown much of an aptitude for it.

Cozens, Peterka, Skinner and Thompson: 4 of your top six play games based on beating opponents with their bodies, rather than their brains: “just throw it deep along the sidelines coach, I can beat this guy!”

You can’t shield them all, and you certainly can’t bench them all. How much can you get them to change?

I’m expecting a much different look to the forward lines.

If you force Cozens into the matchup role - which it sounds like they want to do - do you put Tuch with him as the most structured of your top wingers? Then add Greenway as your best defensive winger and match them against Matthews, Point and the like? Same idea as Drury and Grier, back in the day?

Can you find a Chandler Stevenson or Sam Bennett to anchor a sneaky good 2-way “2nd” line with an emerging Quinn? Can Benson improve enough to be a Quinn-like presence on the other side?

Will that allow an all-offence “first”-line of Thompson Skinner and Peterka to wreak havoc a la Max, Vanek and Roy?

Then Krebs going full pest between two new loads on the wing as a forechecking line?

That’s something I could see Lindy doing, but it will acquire an above average new centre, as well as Cozens, Quinn and Benson taking a step.

Edited June 5 by dudacek

[irregularly irregular]

13 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

Sabres are Cooking people. Fans about to eat😜

Why am I having visions of a thick piece of Spam with a side of dry white toast?

[PerreaultForever]

38 minutes ago, irregularly irregular said:

Why am I having visions of a thick piece of Spam with a side of dry white toast?

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, irregularly irregular said:

Why am I having visions of a thick piece of Spam with a side of dry white toast?

Yeah Adams is going to trade the 11th overall pick to NJ for former 2016 12th overall Michael McLeod.

[Taro T]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The odds of Skinner being bought out are pretty slim.  I won't say none because Diggs got traded by the Bills so anything can happen.

Skinner is a black hole defensively, especially when he plays with lower level players. Placing him with Krebs late last season was a disaster.  

Skinner needs to play in the top 6 or with a very capable 3rd line center to maximize his value to the Sabres.  Acquiring someone like Monahan, Duchene or Karlsson might allow Skinner to be played on the 3rd line.  

@Taro T I'm not sure there is enough money for the Sabres to bring in a top 6 winger and a center capable of maximizing Skinner's ability on the 3rd line, while filling the other needs on the team.

I think we can accomplish much the same thing with a 3rd line of Skinner, Karlsson, and Savoie (assuming he's ready).  I'd still like to see Blueger signed for the 4th line center job.  Sign Blueger and you have a 4th line of Krebs, Blueger and Greenway.  I wouldn't mind also looking at Sam Lafferty instead of Krebs on the 4th line.  This gives us the ablility to push Greenway back into the top 9 if Savoie isn't ready.  To get Karlsson, I traded Rosen plus a 2nd in 2024 & a 3rd in 2025.

I used AFP for most of the contracts except I think we can re-sign UPL at 4 million (3 years) and Krebs at 1.25 (2 years).  I re-signed Bryson (2 years @ 1.25); signed Blueger (2 years & 2.25) and Lafferty (2 years at 2.5)

By bolstering the team with Karlson, I was forced to elevate Ryan Johnson to the 3rd pair with Clifton and pair Byram with Power.  

I ran this team on capfriendly and the cap hit came to 84.4 in 2024.

JJP TNT Tuch

Benson Cozens Quinn

Skinner Karlson Savoie

Lafferty Blueger Greenway (Krebs)

Dahlin Samuelsson

Power Byram

Johnson Clifton (Bryson)

UPL Levi

 

 

That's the magic of Patrick Kane.  Wasn't high on the idea of getting him last year for several reasons, but he showed in Detroit that he's recovered from the surgeries.  He's old enough that he's eligible for an incentive laden contract so using him, they can effectively circumvent the cap (just like the big boys do).  It pretty much guarantees buying Skinner out next year as those cap savings would pay Kane's bonuses that would count against next year's cap (unless he's REALLY hit a wall this year or gets injured again, in which case Kulich or Savoie get their mid-season call up).

And really don't see Adams altering the D nor G lineups, so the only remaining holes to fill that will likely be addressed is the "identity" 4th line.  That is easily doable even if Kane is getting close to what he'd actually be worth and not getting an incentive laden deal.

[Thorny]

Peterka - Cozens - Tuch

Benson - Thompson - Quinn

Skinner - 3C - 3RW

Greenway - 4C - 4RW

…honestly I think we need 4 new bottom 6 players, and we’d be good with that t6. It’s 4 guys but considering our prospects and pick asset pool that should be fishing with dynamite, more less. I think Skinner is fine on L3 if there’s a shooter with him allowing him to clean up rebounds, Greenway nice in a 4th line roll.

Byram - Dahlin

Samuelsson - Power

Clifton - Jokiharju

D is fine as is. We’ve spend a ton of capital there. It’ll either be the strength of the team or we will suck. If we have to spend even more on D to make that happen we are probably screwed anyways. I like the group and it’s upside tbh

UPL

Levi

GT should finally be ready to contribute positive results for a full season  ()

- - - 

That should be a fun offseason for a GM, no? At least as far as one on the hot seat? 4 good bottom 6 forwards. Hardly an unreasonable ask.

Edited June 5 by Thorny

[dudacek]

18 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Peterka - Cozens - Tuch

Benson - Thompson - Quinn

Skinner - 3C - 3RW

Greenway - 4C - 4RW

…honestly I think we need 4 new bottom 6 players, and we’d be good with that t6. It’s 4 guys but considering our prospects and pick asset pool that should be fishing with dynamite, more less. I think Skinner is fine on L3 if there’s a shooter with him allowing him to clean up rebounds, Greenway nice in a 4th line roll.

Byram - Dahlin

Samuelsson - Power

Clifton - Jokiharju

D is fine as is. We’ve spend a ton of capital there. It’ll either be the strength of the team or we will suck. If we have to spend even more on D to make that happen we are probably screwed anyways. I like the group and it’s upside tbh

UPL

Levi

GT should finally be ready to contribute positive results for a full season  ()

- - - 

That should be a fun offseason for a GM, no? At least as far as one on the hot seat? 4 good bottom 6 forwards. Hardly an unreasonable ask.

I might quibble about the way the pieces get used, but the only thing I'd say differently about the roster is Krebs is the 4C and I'm fine with him in that role, so long as the new 3C is sturdy and can win a faceoff.

And I also think Adams will try to move Jokiharju if he can find a more physical 4/5 RD at similar or cheaper $$

Edited June 5 by dudacek

[Thorny]

44 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I might quibble about the way the pieces get used, but the only thing I'd say differently about the roster is Krebs is the 4C and I'm fine with him in that role, so long as the new 3C is sturdy and can win a faceoff.

And I also think Adams will try to move Jokiharju if he can find a more physical 4/5 RD at similar or cheaper $$

Kinda hoping Krebs is involved in a trade during the process of filling those 4 forward spots