Off-season Game Plan 2024

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I would swear Dahlin & Power were solid, the issue was that Byram & Jokiharju were  like 25 GF%

Late last season Byram and Power were paired as well, so there should be some analytics on Byram/Power and Power/Dahlin.  

[LGR4GM]

Power and Dahlin played 254min together at 5v5. 

60.18cf%, 57.69gf%, 54.76xgf%, 56.25hdcf%

These numbers are better than Power with Byram and Byram with Dahlin. 

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Late last season Byram and Power were paired as well, so there should be some analytics on Byram/Power and Power/Dahlin.  

fine, I will pull all of it

Power and Dahlin played 254min together at 5v5. 

60.18cf%, 57.69gf%, 54.76xgf%, 56.25hdcf%

Power and Byram played 61min together

47.73cf%, 66.67gf% *because it is literally 2for 1against, 36.91xgf% *again, this is like 2 to 3, 30.30hdcf%

Dahlin and Byram played 137mins together

51.08cf%, 47.37gf%, 46.08xgf%, 42%hdcf%

[GASabresIUFAN]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Power and Dahlin played 254min together at 5v5. 

60.18cf%, 57.69gf%, 54.76xgf%, 56.25hdcf%

These numbers are better than Power with Byram and Byram with Dahlin. 

I was just looking at the numbers as well and @thewookie1 was correct.  They weren't bad together.  \

Looking at the stats, everyone was decent to good with Dahlin, except Clifton.  Clifton/Dahlin xGF (38.33%)/

XGF over 50% = Power/ Dahlin (54.76%), Joki/Dahlin (56.22), Mule/Dahlin (50.15), Clifton/Power (51.24), Mule/Power (56.36)

Byram's best partner was Dahlin at 47.37%.  

From these numbers it looks like Power and Dahlin, while good together should anchor their own lines and Jokiharju needs to be traded.  I'm also still not seeing how to put the pieces together.

 

Edited May 23 by GASabresIUFAN

[nfreeman]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It would be extremely out of character for him and against his stated goal of not adding a long-term contract.  It's why when I mentioned him earlier I kind of dismissed him as a trade target.  That doesn't mean I'm against the acquisition, I just find it highly unlikely given KA's track record.  You and I would look a Cirelli and say perfect, we have a long-term solution at 3C and someone who could play up if we have an injury.  KA looks and thinks he's not one of my core players and therefore I'm not committing to him for 7 years. 

I do disagree that trading Mitts was out of character for KA. In fact it was perfectly in character.  Keeping Mitts was not in his budget so he traded him for whatever he could get.  It didn't matter that he didn't have an adequate plan B at 3C (also in character) and it didn't matter that the player acquired didn't bring a skill set we needed (also in character).  It's just another example of KA not having a clue how to build a successful team. Another example of poor asset management.  

KA could sell the deal in the press as he acquired a much needed top 4 D. Unfortunately Power/Bryam or Dahlin/Bryam or Dahlin/Power aren't viable D pairings.  Maybe Ruff could get it to work, but I'm not holding me breath.  What makes it even worse is that Byram is going to need a new deal after next season.  He basically traded Mitts for one season of an alleged top 4 D unless he gives Byram the long-term extension he couldn't afford to give Mitts.  

Honestly I have lost all faith that KA can pull this plane out of it's tail spin.  I was bullish on the Clifton and Johnson signings.  I hoped Clifton could play up and Johnson would bring some much needed leadership and maturity to the D group.  I was wrong on both counts and so was Adams.  I then looked at the cap situation Adams has put us in, his keeping Benson in the NHL last season, his awful pro level acquisitions, his long-term mismanagement of the goaltending, his lack of any defensive stalwarts on his defense, and his failure to properly support the team in season the last two years, and I have come to the sad conclusion that he is in so far over his head he doesn't even know where to begin to fix his roster.  His keeping of terrible coaches like Ellis and Wilford are just further examples.  I do hope that my assessment of Adams is wrong.

 

I really like to know how anyone has any faith or hope left that Adams can fix this team.  

JFC.  You claim not to be bitter/obsessed about the Mitts trade, but half of your posts are long rants about that trade!

Not wanting to give Mitts a long-term deal doesn't mean KA is opposed to long-term deals.  It just means he didn't think Mitts was worth what it would've cost to keep him.

 

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Don't recall Adams ever stating that a goal was to not trade for a player on a LT contract.  Do you recall when Adams said that?

58 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I don't remember this either.  He has expressed that he would be cautious about signing a player in free agency out of concern that it is often the case that a good player who has reached UFA status will command a higher AAV or longer term (or both) than might be reasonable based on the player's age.  I don't recall him saying that he would not take a player in trade who is on a long-term deal. Of course, the unsaid is always "the right player for the right price".

Indeed -- it's only a "stated goal" if it was stated.  And the fact that KA has given a number of guys long-term deals seems to indicate that he's not opposed to doing so.

 

44 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I didn’t mention specific pairings and Ruff did use them as his shutdown pair periodically, but I remember Lydman with Teppo and Tallinder with Soupy primarily.  McKee played with Kalinin and Fitz subbed in where needed.  

@thewookie1 I don’t think the analytics support your contention.  

 

No.  Tallinder/Lydman were the top pair and were generally together.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I didn’t mention specific pairings and Ruff did use them as his shutdown pair periodically, but I remember Lydman with Teppo and Tallinder with Soupy primarily.  McKee played with Kalinin and Fitz subbed in where needed.  

@thewookie1 I don’t think the analytics support your contention.  

 

Nope.  It was usually Tallinder - Lydman (which was scary early in the year but got much better as the season wore on) and then typically McKee with Campbell and Numinnen paired up with the young guy (typically Kalinen).

There was some mixing and matching as Ruff always did; but that was what they normally ran.

[Flashsabre]

https://vegashockeyknight.com/posts/blockbuster-trades-golden-knights-make-sabres-01hygnywn0kh
 

😂  Could Adams just call these guys and get these deals done.😛

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

https://vegashockeyknight.com/posts/blockbuster-trades-golden-knights-make-sabres-01hygnywn0kh
 

😂  Could Adams just call these guys and get these deals done.😛

"WHY would the Sabres trade Skinner?"  Do you have some time, because this could take a while.  

If only McCrimmon would ask himself that same question and come back with the same expectation that the author had that it would be a hard ask of Adams.  (Unfortunately, Skinner has that full NMC, and it isn't really Adams call.  But we can still dream that McCrimmon decided to take some mushrooms and then make a call to Adams.)

[thewookie1]

19 minutes ago, Taro T said:

"WHY would the Sabres trade Skinner?"  Do you have some time, because this could take a while.  

If only McCrimmon would ask himself that same question and come back with the same expectation that the author had that it would be a hard ask of Adams.  (Unfortunately, Skinner has that full NMC, and it isn't really Adams call.  But we can still dream that McCrimmon decided to take some mushrooms and then make a call to Adams.)

oddest part is how obsessed that guy is in trading Shea Theodore

[Thorner]

13 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I really like to know how anyone has any faith or hope left that Adams can fix this team.  

I torpedo Kevyn Adams all the time (ask a board member! They’ll tells ya! I swears it!”) and while I wouldn’t call it faith or hope, I rely on something better: fact. Which, beyond “faith”, let’s me KNOW it’s possible Adams can do it: you don’t need to be very good to make the playoffs. You need to be average. Yes, Adams has the ability to field an average team.

We were one point out a year ago for jeepers sakes. Human beings don’t have the ability to change or shift their stance even one iota? Of course they do. Adams can adjust his strategy in perhaps even an indistinguishable way so as to make up that gap. It would be absurd to think Adams can’t “fix” it when the fix is so minor.

Can Adams field a cup team? Probably not. Most GMs can’t. But I just do not care 

you might even say I could care less. But that’s a little extreme. Extreme because it’s a butchered turn of phrase 

[Thorner]

12 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I think this off-season will clarify if there is any hope that KA has the semblance of a brain or not. The narrative you tell is pretty damn depressing.

The fact things can look, sound, and be THAT depressing, a story filled with potholes along the way, yet result in a team that was a solitary point out is a positive thing 

imagine if we loved everything KA had done and we were still missing. That would be really stinky. There’s a ton of failure there, actually, which presents opportunity, which means potential for improvement. When the gap you need to bridge with that improvement is minor, things can be exceptionally frustrating yet not shrouded in darkness 

[Flashsabre]

Dreger said on the radio that Elias Lindholm will get $8 million+ in free agency. Avoid that like the plague.

[Taro T]

7 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Dreger said on the radio that Elias Lindholm will get $8 million+ in free agency. Avoid that like the plague.

You will likely get your wish there.

Fairly certain that while Adams isn't going to be only shopping the bargain bin like some here expect, that he isn't going to be bringing in anybody making more than Thompson and Cozens.

[Flashsabre]

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Eklund/Krebs-Drawing-Active-Interest/1/125387

“Active Interest” people, active. 😛

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Eklund/Krebs-Drawing-Active-Interest/1/125387

“Active Interest” people, active. 😛

So Granato stapled him to 4C. Lindy will take this fellow WHL grad and turn him into a better 4C. Then perhaps Krebs will be ready for a bigger role.

[DarthEbriate]

On 5/23/2024 at 12:41 PM, Flashsabre said:

Dreger said on the radio that Elias Lindholm will get $8 million+ in free agency. Avoid that like the plague.

Yup. He’s a good role player. He’s not someone you build around.

(To be fair: We still don’t know if Cozens and TNT are folks you build around, but Lindholm is a 2/3C, but not a core piece).

[dudacek]

On 5/20/2024 at 7:22 AM, LGR4GM said:

I don't agree with this line at all. It was very clear that after the failed Kruger/Hall fiasco season that Adams came up with the rebuild plan and sold it to Terry.

We aren't trading for Necas IMPO. As you say, Adams is reactive and he will leave the top 6 in place and react later if they suck again under Ruff. 

 

On 5/19/2024 at 4:58 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

KA is not a proactive GM when it comes finding veteran talent for his roster.  Every major deal has been reactive.  He's told to sign Hall, he signs Hall.  He is told to redo the rebuild and he trade Risto, Eichel and Reinhart.  He fails to sign Ullmark and has no plan B, thus signs Dell and Anderson.  The team is up against the internal cap because of the long-term extensions, so he can't re-sign Mitts and therefore trades him for whatever he can get even if that player doesn't really fit any need on the roster.

I guess the only thing he is proactive about is signing players to long-term deals after one good year.   Makes you wonder how he is going to be able to retain JJP and Quinn when they have another big year this coming season?

Trading for Necas is arguably again reactive since he doesn't have any centers after TNT and Cozens. At least it would be a move to add depth and talent where it's needed and Necas is at least a legit player.

 

On 5/20/2024 at 12:52 PM, PerreaultForever said:

I agree with the second sentence, but does he "really like Byram" or was Byram just the best player he could get for Mitts from a team that wanted Mitts? A guy he thought would not hate coming to Buffalo because he had friends there. 

I am really curious as to how Ruff puts this D together. I personally don't see how Byram gives us what we need there. 

 Adams did not have to trade Casey this season.

There was absolutely cap space to sign him to a long-term deal. There was absolutely even more cap space to sign him to  a short term deal.

Adams instead - proactively- decided not to invest in him as a core piece if he could instead use him as asset to fill a hole elsewhere.

Adams tells us also he - proactively- has been chasing a top 4 defenceman for a couple years. We were told he had a deal close for Pesce that was nixed by an NTC. We were told he had a better offer for Chychrun that Ottawa spurned over division concerns.

Adams also tells us he has had a - proactive - interest in Bowen Byram dating back to the Eichel trade talks.

Maybe Adams is facing an artificial cap crunch and desperately took the best offer he could find regardless of thought about how he might fit.

Or maybe he actually likes Byram better than Mittelstadt and proactively sacrificed a chip he thought he could afford for another he really likes and thinks his team needs more.

[dudacek]

Further to the above, Not saying Adams made the right call, just disagreeing with the idea it wasn’t proactive. Or lacking in balls.

it was entirely proactive and there was nothing safe about it.

Related, I don’t recall this kind of angst about type or fit when we were chasing Chychrun a year ago.

He’s also an offence-first lefty of slightly more size and a more difficult contract situation.

Did people have a misperception Jake is a bruiser like his dad?

Edited May 25 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

So you’re saying he is proactive, just incompetent. 

The difference between pursuing Chychrun vs the Byram trade is apple to oranges. Getting Chychrun would have been an upgrade to the team without sacrificing any current NHL talent. The Mitts for Byram deal added a redundant talent on defense while creating a huge hole in our forward group.

You’ll see the anger and angst grow when Colorado makes Mitts’ their No.2 center next fall and KA installs Krebs as our 3C out of camp.  When this happens it will further illustrate that Adams traded Mitts because he couldn’t afford to keep him because of the internal cap and therefore couldn’t afford to replace Mitts either, leaving only Krebs.  

 

 

Edited May 25 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

 

 Adams did not have to trade Casey this season.

There was absolutely cap space to sign him to a long-term deal. There was absolutely even more cap space to sign him to  a short term deal.

Adams instead - proactively- decided not to invest in him as a core piece if he could instead use him as asset to fill a hole elsewhere.

Adams tells us also he - proactively- has been chasing a top 4 defenceman for a couple years. We were told he had a deal close for Pesce that was nixed by an NTC. We were told he had a better offer for Chychrun that Ottawa spurned over division concerns.

Adams also tells us he has had a - proactive - interest in Bowen Byram dating back to the Eichel trade talks.

Maybe Adams is facing an artificial cap crunch and desperately took the best offer he could find regardless of thought about how he might fit.

Or maybe he actually likes Byram better than Mittelstadt and proactively sacrificed a chip he thought he could afford for another he really likes and thinks his team needs more.

I agree with you that he's been after a top 4 D man for a while. I just don't think BB is the type of top 4 D man we needed to complete our top 4. Pesce would have been perfect. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

I just don't think BB is the type of top 4 D man we needed to complete our top 4.

Are we even sure he's a top 4 D in Buffalo?  

[PerreaultForever]

34 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Are we even sure he's a top 4 D in Buffalo?  

Good point. I'd say probably, but I'm really not sure how he fits in. 

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I agree with you that he's been after a top 4 D man for a while. I just don't think BB is the type of top 4 D man we needed to complete our top 4. Pesce would have been perfect. 

But if Pesce doesn't want to come here; it doesn't matter if he's a perfect fit. I fully agree with the take however; even on the HFboards and CapFriendly I shot down Mitts for Byram trades because Byram doesn't fit the defensive style we need; however that doesn't mean I necessarily believe Byram is bad. Sadly, while not all players have trade protections; a large number of players in the specific niche of style we are looking for seem to have them in droves. (Likely due to defensive metrics being harder to gain financial perks from and thus they hand out NMCs and NTCs to give more security to the player)

Mitts likely sealed his fate when the "wanting a contract like Thompson and Cozens" rumors floated around. At the present cap; you can't exactly run 7mil per center 1 through 3. Mitts claims Adams never talked to his agent but I would take that in meaning serious negotiations. If he wanted a minimum of 7x7mil and we were unwilling to do long term with 7mil then a contract negotiation would of been a fruitless venture to begin with.

On a side note, I do think Dahlin originally was going to sign 8x10mil but the Pesce trade fell through and Dahlin's agent probably played coy for the extra million while Power's agent used similar reasons to force the contract terms we got.

 

[PerreaultForever]

9 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

But if Pesce doesn't want to come here; it doesn't matter if he's a perfect fit. I fully agree with the take however; even on the HFboards and CapFriendly I shot down Mitts for Byram trades because Byram doesn't fit the defensive style we need; however that doesn't mean I necessarily believe Byram is bad. Sadly, while not all players have trade protections; a large number of players in the specific niche of style we are looking for seem to have them in droves. (Likely due to defensive metrics being harder to gain financial perks from and thus they hand out NMCs and NTCs to give more security to the player)

Mitts likely sealed his fate when the "wanting a contract like Thompson and Cozens" rumors floated around. At the present cap; you can't exactly run 7mil per center 1 through 3. Mitts claims Adams never talked to his agent but I would take that in meaning serious negotiations. If he wanted a minimum of 7x7mil and we were unwilling to do long term with 7mil then a contract negotiation would of been a fruitless venture to begin with.

On a side note, I do think Dahlin originally was going to sign 8x10mil but the Pesce trade fell through and Dahlin's agent probably played coy for the extra million while Power's agent used similar reasons to force the contract terms we got.

 

Yup. I don't believe Byram is "bad" either, I just believe we already have that guy and we can't build a proper D with all the same guy. 

I agree that these guys can be hard to get, but I also think we as a franchise have undervalued them and our coaching and team systems have made many of them look bad and not fit in and then moved on. 

Watching that Toronto Boston series, McCabe was their best D man and is exactly what we lack but we didn't value him. Lybushkin was actually their second best D man and while he's far from perfect I still don't understand why we tossed him away for next to nothing. I know the analytics crowd have numbers on him, but he was a heck of a lot better than over the hill Johnson, he had snarl, and in the right system he's a better D man then he was for us. 

Boston picked up Andrew Peeke for a 3rd rounder and a failed NHLer/AHLer. Now Peeke is no Pesce, but he's solid and a heck of a good shot blocker. Perfect bottom end guy. 

Now I'm not saying these guys are better than Byram, they are far less skilled, but they are all guys who complement the type of D guys we have and they can be physical and they are defensive D men. This goes right back to McNabb. We simply do not value defensive D men. We only seem to want fast skating puck movers, and hence, our D is always in disarray and a work in progress rather than a solid set unit. 

[sabrefanday1]

Maybe KA is smarter then we think and he will at some point trade Byram for that elsuive 2nd center...or package one of our d-men with propects and/or picks for said centerman. Mitts was not going to come cheap but maybe now we can trade for a center who is more affordable?