Off-season Game Plan 2024

[oddoublee]

2 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

 

 

Thanks for posting this - I looked at last years - and they do not do a bad job projecting contracts out. Very cool. 

Imagine a Lindholm and Domi signing at those prices on this team. Ruff would have 3 lines with lots of C/W flexibility. While I am not a huge UFA guy...this team may need it to get over the hump. 

[Taro T]

19 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I was crunching some numbers and it doesn't look good for the Sabres being able to truly spent much this off-season unless it's on one year deals.  Assuming Ryan Johnson and Levi make the team and UPL takes a 4 million contract, the Sabres will only have 17 million to sign or acquire 5 forwards and 2 D or about 2.3 per player.

Unfortunately, KA must keep in mind that JJP, Quinn and Byram need new deals following next season with only Greenway's 3 mill coming off the books after next season.  The way KA has structured the team isn't sustainable.  If he acquires players, they'll be on short-term deals in order to be off the books after the season to clear room to at least retain JJP and Quinn.  

The qualifying offers for the RFA are 925K for UPL, 2.6 mill for Jokiharju, 1.9 for Bryson and 832K for Krebs.  Given the Sabres budget, Krebs is sadly returning as cheap depth with upside (in theory anyway).  I don't think Bryson is worth 1.9.  I'd rather trade Joki than keep him, but it may be cheaper for KA to retain Joki than find a useful RHD replacement.

With Savoie (887K), Krebs (2 years 1 mill per season), and Joki (3 year @ 4 per season) another nearly 6 mill will be spent on rookies and returning players.  This leaves us with 11 million for 4 players and us still needing a 2/3C.  

Here is a link to some FA contract estimates.  They look pretty good.  Their UPL and Joki projections seem spot on.  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JPtGk5m_S9VuR5e7T8lb_BlilXRwJPF0V2ddQzjjpvc/edit?pli=1#gid=0

 

But that $17MM isn't going to go to 7 skaters.  It's going to 3-5 and likely only 3-4.  Plenty of $'s to bring in what he's been talking about bringing in.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

But that $17MM isn't going to go to 7 skaters.  It's going to 3-5 and likely only 3-4.  Plenty of $'s to bring in what he's been talking about bringing in.

Not on medium or long term deals.  One year deals, sure, but they have to have significant open cap space after next season to re-sign JJP, Quinn and Byram.  Good luck finding players that only want a one year deal and who will improve the team.  Also 3 mill for a player gets you Clifton type players.  Is that really going to elevate this sorry roster?

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Not on medium or long term deals.  One year deals, sure, but they have to have significant open cap space after next season to re-sign JJP, Quinn and Byram.  Good luck finding players that only want a one year deal and who will improve the team.  Also 3 mill for a player gets you Clifton type players.  Is that really going to elevate this sorry roster?

If it's not then the top of your roster isn't good enough and you need to trade someone to get something better or open space to get something better. 

[French Collection]

9 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Not on medium or long term deals.  One year deals, sure, but they have to have significant open cap space after next season to re-sign JJP, Quinn and Byram.  Good luck finding players that only want a one year deal and who will improve the team.  Also 3 mill for a player gets you Clifton type players.  Is that really going to elevate this sorry roster?

A guy like Joshua may be around $3-4M.

I would rather they push the envelope and flirt with maximum cap than have tons of cap space and not use it, like KA during his reign. He never weaponized his cap space.

Having talent on board will cause him to make tough decisions and move people out as needed and bring in minimum wage prospects as they are needed.

An example might be moving on from Mule if Novikov takes the next step after next season. There is over $3M in savings in one move.

The other variable is the cap going up.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Not on medium or long term deals.  One year deals, sure, but they have to have significant open cap space after next season to re-sign JJP, Quinn and Byram.  Good luck finding players that only want a one year deal and who will improve the team.  Also 3 mill for a player gets you Clifton type players.  Is that really going to elevate this sorry roster?

Pretty sure Patty Kane is eligible for a 1 year deal with bonuses (either due to age or games played) that would fit almost exactly as to what Adams has indicated he wants to bring in.  Maybe having Ruff as the HC makes that happen this year.

Find a 3C via trade or FA.  Then bring in somebody cheap for the 4th line.  Would still like to see a vet to compete with the 2 kids in net; but really doubt that happens.  And Adams is on record several times saying how pleased he is with the D they have.  So, really not seeing $'s spent on an outsider there either.

The cap will go up a LOT next year.  Hopefully Peterka, Quinn, and Byram don't end up getting bridged; but if 1 or 2 of them have to be to get to the point they're finally rid of Skinner's contract; so be it.  They CAN buy out Skinner next year, but personally am expecting them to only buy out year 8.

The East only has 5 good teams right now.  So, simply having a legit system (or systems based on personnel and situations which Ruff will switch up), not having Gary Busey draw up the PP, and the youth being a year older SHOULD be enough to get that into the playoffs.  If it isn't, well, guess we get to meet the new GM.

As somebody around here ( @Thorny maybe?) likes to point out, this team's true "competing" window sure does seem to be aligned to Levi's timeline.  They're going to shoot for the playoffs this year, but don't believe they're honestly shooting for Lord Stanley's Chalice this year; and if they do make the playoffs, unfortunately, that will be good enough realistically.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

If it's not then the top of your roster isn't good enough and you need to trade someone to get something better or open space to get something better. 

I agree. I’d trade Power.  This may seem extreme but what does he bring that Dahlin and Bryam don’t?  He also isn’t worth 8 mill a season imho, but given his age and draft status, I think we can get some important pieces to improve this team short and long-term.  

[Flashsabre]

Ruff has always liked to have  a guy who can drop the gloves that can be shuffled in and out of the lineup.  I think one of the 4th line/13th forward roles will be filled by such a player.

[Archie Lee]

3 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Ruff has always liked to have  a guy who can drop the gloves that can be shuffled in and out of the lineup.  I think one of the 4th line/13th forward roles will be filled by such a player.

Brendan Smith fits this role and can serve as both the 8th D and 14th forward. 

[Archie Lee]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I agree. I’d trade Power.  This may seem extreme but what does he bring that Dahlin and Bryam don’t?  He also isn’t worth 8 mill a season imho, but given his age and draft status, I think we can get some important pieces to improve this team short and long-term.  

Re: Power, it is true that he needs to learn how to physically impose himself defensively. The risk I guess is that it just isn’t in his make-up and never happens.  But he retrieves and moves the puck out of danger zones so effortlessly that I think we don’t even notice the positive impact he has on possession and zone time. He is much better than Byram in my view.  

 

[JohnC]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I agree. I’d trade Power.  This may seem extreme but what does he bring that Dahlin and Bryam don’t?  He also isn’t worth 8 mill a season imho, but given his age and draft status, I think we can get some important pieces to improve this team short and long-term.  

Trading Power makes absolutely no sense! What you would be doing is jettisoning a player who as a rookie did play well, added to the fact that he has so much untapped immense upside to his game. All of that upside is not going to be actualized in one year. Acting out of frustration and impatience is self-sabotaging. It won't take long to come to the realization that the player you let go is now starring on another team. 

Not too long ago, you wanted Mitts thrown out the door. He became one of our better players. You also wanted to get rid of UPL because he wasn't an instant franchise goalie. Last year, he demonstrated that he could be our long-term franchise goalie. (I'm aware making conclusive judgments on goalies are fraught with inaccuracies.)

My point here is simple, it is better to be patient and act with calculation than it is to act out of frustration. It's so aggravating to see many of our former players thriving on cup contending teams while we continue to be stuck in the mud. What you are essentially arguing for is to provide the league with more of our talented players so that we can continue to take futile actions that gets us nowhere. 

[French Collection]

11 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Re: Power, it is true that he needs to learn how to physically impose himself defensively. The risk I guess is that it just isn’t in his make-up and never happens.  But he retrieves and moves the puck out of danger zones so effortlessly that I think we don’t even notice the positive impact he has on possession and zone time. He is much better than Byram in my view.  

 

We’ll see this season how Byram and Power progress.

If these two take a step forward the D core will be a force to be reckoned with, not so much defensively but in puck possession and zone exits.

I like Byram’s nasty edge.

I hope that Power puts on a few pounds this summer to have stronger legs and more confidence. He will never be that punishing, physical Dman, but if he moves the needle 10% more towards asserting himself, that will give him more room to be creative. A face wash once in a while, pushing a man down in front of the net or in the corner. Added strength and Ruff’s influence can get him 10% tougher to play against. Then his confidence, growth and talent can take him to 20% above where he is now.

[Weave]

Regarding Byram’s nasty edge……

Are we basing this off one incident during the Worlds?  I don’t recall seeing any edgy play after the trade deadline.  What else is this based upon?

[Archie Lee]

10 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

If it's not then the top of your roster isn't good enough and you need to trade someone to get something better or open space to get something better. 

This is kind of the point I think. There  are people making straight-faced arguments that the league was full of guys making $750-$800 K who are better than Okposo and Girgs, as though we would have been better this year with Ryan Lomberg and Steven Lorentz as 4th line wingers. The reality is that it is not players like that who make teams like FLA so much better, it’s players like Barkov, Tkachuk and Reinhart. 
 

It’s probably worth remembering (not directed at you), that when Adams started his rebuild he had no idea that Thompson was going to become a 30-40 goal scorer and 70-90 point man (and it still isn’t clear that he will be consistently). The goal from the onset was that the prospect and draft capital acquired in the recent tear down would yield such players.  The plan I’m sure was showing patience for our prospects to develop. None are close to being elite level NHL forwards at the moment and I’m not sure any actually project to be. Getting elite level forwards will require a lot of patience or a big trade (we do have elite D and possibly G, in my view). 

[French Collection]

4 minutes ago, Weave said:

Regarding Byram’s nasty edge……

Are we basing this off one incident during the Worlds?  I don’t recall seeing any edgy play after the trade deadline.  What else is this based upon?

That is the recency bias I guess, but has a look about him that brings out the Pronger once in while.

[GASabresIUFAN]

43 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Re: Power, it is true that he needs to learn how to physically impose himself defensively. The risk I guess is that it just isn’t in his make-up and never happens.  But he retrieves and moves the puck out of danger zones so effortlessly that I think we don’t even notice the positive impact he has on possession and zone time. He is much better than Byram in my view.  

 

 

34 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Trading Power makes absolutely no sense! What you would be doing is jettisoning a player who as a rookie did play well, added to the fact that he has so much untapped immense upside to his game. All of that upside is not going to be actualized in one year. Acting out of frustration and impatience is self-sabotaging. It won't take long to come to the realization that the player you let go is now starring on another team. 

Not too long ago, you wanted Mitts thrown out the door. He became one of our better players. You also wanted to get rid of UPL because he wasn't an instant franchise goalie. Last year, he demonstrated that he could be our long-term franchise goalie. (I'm aware making conclusive judgments on goalies are fraught with inaccuracies.)

My point here is simple, it is better to be patient and act with calculation than it is to act out of frustration. It's so aggravating to see many of our former players thriving on cup contending teams while we continue to be stuck in the mud. What you are essentially arguing for is to provide the league with more of our talented players so that we can continue to take futile actions that gets us nowhere. 

And this is why this team doesn't move forward.  He'll develop, he'll develop I hear them cry.  Really he will!  When?  When will he become a physical force?  When will he become a 50 point player?  2 years into his $8 mill deal or is it 3 or 4 or 5?  Dahlin is the No. 1 D. He gets the majority of the PP time.  Power and Byram are therefore 2nd fiddles. 

Despite having all this expensive talent on D, we are still terrible at playing defense.  Something has to give. You can't keep handing out big contracts and field a complete team (see Toronto and at least they are a playoff team).  KA traded Mitts because the team's budget didn't allow for another big contract.  What happens after next season when the team is slated to re-sign JJP, Quinn and Byram?  Buying out Skinner helps but not as much as your think.  Only Greenway's salary comes off the books and truthfully we need him.  

So the questions becomes priorities.  Who to keep and who to trade or not re-sign.  The sad part is that we are making these decisions already and we aren't even a playoff team because of our clueless GM.  So if you aren't moving on from Power, are you allowing JJP to walk in a year, or Quinn or whom?  We don't have enough centers, but are you trading Cozens who finally seems to be blossoming at Worlds?  Pick your poison.

To me Power is the logical point to start now that KA acquired Byram.  Dahlin and Bryam anchor the top 2 D pairings and QB the PP units.  After that we have plenty of candidates, both short-term and long-term for the majority of the remaing D roles in Clifton, Joki, Mule, Johnson, Novikov, Strbak, Komarov, except D first top 4 defenseman.  Maybe the assets from a Power trade bring in that piece and more center help.

Remember the reason Toronto failed is that they signed Tavares for big money and all their star forward but then didn't have enough cap space to fix their D or goaltending properly.  Our goaltending is becoming a strength.  Our D needs more D first players to become elite and our forwards need center help.  If you want to keep Power, trade Byram again and don't re-sign Joki.  That's fine with me as well, but having Byram, Power, and Dahlin is not a working plan either short-term or long-term as their skill set are redundant and they don't work as D partners.

Edited May 22 by GASabresIUFAN

[Weave]

50 minutes ago, French Collection said:

That is the recency bias I guess, but has a look about him that brings out the Pronger once in while.

For the benefit of this conversation, what plays other than that 1 in the Worlds did he show a little Pronger?  

[CallawaySabres]

On 5/20/2024 at 1:54 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

If KA can make a deal that pushes Greenway to the 4th line, that’s a step in the right direction. I like Greenway and am glad he is here.  I do think if we made a 4th line staring Greenway, a decent center and another smart effort player, we could have a very effective and disruptive “4th” line.  

When I look at the returning forwards I see 4 top 6 players (Quinn, TNT, Tuch and JJP), 3 players who could be in the top 6 but shouldn’t be yet (or anymore) in Skinner, Benson and Cozens and a 3/4 liner in Greenway.  
 

In Adam’s world the forwards probably look something like this

JJP TNT Tuch

Benson Cozens Quinn

Skinner ????  Greenway

?????  Krebs ?????

What he should be looking at

JJP TNT Tuch

Benson  ????  Quinn

Skinner Cozens ????

????  ????  Greenway

We need a top6/9 center, a top 9 RW, a 4th LW and Center.  

JJP TNT Tuch

Benson  ????  Quinn

Skinner Cozens ????

????  ????  Greenway

Yup, they absolutely have to get a 2nd line center in a trade, along with filling those three other ??? you have. Anything short of those changes and this team will not finish with more than 90ish points. The forwards are nowhere near good enough as is. 

[LGR4GM]

27 minutes ago, CallawaySabres said:

JJP TNT Tuch

Benson  ????  Quinn

Skinner Cozens ????

????  ????  Greenway

Yup, they absolutely have to get a 2nd line center in a trade, along with filling those three other ??? you have. Anything short of those changes and this team will not finish with more than 90ish points. The forwards are nowhere near good enough as is. 

You aren't the only one but I want to say that whenever anyone on this site pencils Cozens in as a 3rd line center, you are living in fantasy land. 

JJP - TNT- Tuch

Skinner/Benson - Cozens - Quinn 

Those lines are basically set and I don't believe until he proves me wrong, that Adams has it in him to move a top 6 guy out or demote Cozens to the 3rd line.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, French Collection said:

We’ll see this season how Byram and Power progress.

If these two take a step forward the D core will be a force to be reckoned with, not so much defensively but in puck possession and zone exits.

I like Byram’s nasty edge.

I hope that Power puts on a few pounds this summer to have stronger legs and more confidence. He will never be that punishing, physical Dman, but if he moves the needle 10% more towards asserting himself, that will give him more room to be creative. A face wash once in a while, pushing a man down in front of the net or in the corner. Added strength and Ruff’s influence can get him 10% tougher to play against. Then his confidence, growth and talent can take him to 20% above where he is now.

I have never in all my watchings of Power seen that out of him. Maybe he gets there but it has never been his game and I tried for months before that draft to tell ppl what he was and got told to shut up by the board almost on mass. Power is a good skating, defender with long reach, good breakout passes, who is decent in transition. I think his reach and smarts allow him to play a solid defensive game but unless he gets a coach who tells him he needs to impose his body on others and forces him down that path, I don't think he will naturally ever just develop that. I wish he used his body the way Quinn or Benson does, it would make him exceedingly good. Time will tell.

[nfreeman]

I think the most likely outcome is that Lindy will try to get the most out of Skinner -- which probably means putting him back with TT and Tuch.

Certainly it's quite possible that it doesn't work to Lindy's satisfaction and that Skinner moves down the lineup -- maybe to an offensively-oriented 3rd line that benefits from plenty of O-zone starts like Vanek-Roy-Max back in the day.

If that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if Greenway moved up to the top 6. 

So maybe:

JJP-TT-Tuch

Greenway-Cozens-Quinn

Skinner-XXX-Benson

XXX-Krebs-XXX

 

[Archie Lee]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

You aren't the only one but I want to say that whenever anyone on this site pencils Cozens in as a 3rd line center, you are living in fantasy land. 

JJP - TNT- Tuch

Skinner/Benson - Cozens - Quinn 

Those lines are basically set and I don't believe until he proves me wrong, that Adams has it in him to move a top 6 guy out or demote Cozens to the 3rd line.

I agree, but I also don’t think he should. Adams can’t completely abandon the plan. If there is a team left that we could resemble it is Dallas. The comparables aren’t perfect, but Cozens is our Roope Hintz (who was splitting time between the NHL and AHL at Cozens age). Our backend is built to be like the Stars (UPL or Levi are Oettinger, Dahlin is Heiskanen, Power is Harley, Samuelsson is Lindell). Peterka or Quinn need to become our Robertson (or a reasonable facsimile). Benson is Stankoven and maybe Savoie comes up mid-season and we have two Stankoven’s. Tuch is something between Pavelski and Benn. What we are missing are the Marchments and Tanevs and a 3rd centre (and I think a DeBoer). 

[sabremike]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

Trading Power makes absolutely no sense! What you would be doing is jettisoning a player who as a rookie did play well, added to the fact that he has so much untapped immense upside to his game. All of that upside is not going to be actualized in one year. Acting out of frustration and impatience is self-sabotaging. It won't take long to come to the realization that the player you let go is now starring on another team. 

Not too long ago, you wanted Mitts thrown out the door. He became one of our better players. You also wanted to get rid of UPL because he wasn't an instant franchise goalie. Last year, he demonstrated that he could be our long-term franchise goalie. (I'm aware making conclusive judgments on goalies are fraught with inaccuracies.)

My point here is simple, it is better to be patient and act with calculation than it is to act out of frustration. It's so aggravating to see many of our former players thriving on cup contending teams while we continue to be stuck in the mud. What you are essentially arguing for is to provide the league with more of our talented players so that we can continue to take futile actions that gets us nowhere. 

You would think the fact that there are an absurd number of former Sabres on the teams still competing for the cup would teach people a very painful lesson, but nope...

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, sabremike said:

You would think the fact that there are an absurd number of former Sabres on the teams still competing for the cup would teach people a very painful lesson, but nope...

You can’t keep everyone.  That’s the painful truth of the NHL salary cap.  It’s even harder when the team has a lower internal cap.  

If you keep Power, odds are that we won’t be able to afford to keep Bryam.  These are the tough choices the GM has to make.  My point is make the choice now and reallocate Power’s 8 million to improve other areas of the team.  Are you giving up a prime asset.  Yes, of course and that’s the point.  Here Power will never blossom into a No 1 D.  Dahlin deservedly has that job for the longterm.  That means we are paying Power like a no. 1 D, but can’t utilize him that way. That’s a waste of limited cap space imho.  I also like Bryam’s game a little better. 

 

[Thorner]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Not on medium or long term deals.  One year deals, sure, but they have to have significant open cap space after next season to re-sign JJP, Quinn and Byram.  Good luck finding players that only want a one year deal and who will improve the team.  Also 3 mill for a player gets you Clifton type players.  Is that really going to elevate this sorry roster?

Thinking here is too cart before horse. Worry about fielding next year’s team before stressing about “needing” to lock up players from a core that hasn’t yet made the playoffs 

- - - 

Also, the message of seeing some of our players have success elsewhere isn’t “don’t trade your players”, it’s what we draw from the contrast between failure here and success elsewhere: the message is that you need to assemble a team with balance and depth. Not a team of kids, not a team of scrubs expecting a star player to carry them. It’s not at all about being patient: it’s about being proactive in assembling a team of depth 

if you aren’t going to do that, might as well be impatient and deal your guys away to teams where they’ll have success. Just sitting around won’t yield results either 

Edited May 22 by Thorny