Off-season Game Plan 2024

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Evolving Hockey’s Model had Laughton in the one percentile for defensive metrics this past season. 
Even on a bad team putting up that number in a Torts System is a major red flag. 

Here’s Skinner Player Card for comparison 

Okay, I will believe this. He looked decent in the Philly games I saw, but I didn't see that many. 

Perhaps you're still left with the question though of did he get along with Torts or did he quit on him? 

What I don't see on this site though is actual viable trade proposals. Everyone is just saying KA needs to make moves but what moves? That's the harder question. 

[PerreaultForever]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

At the risk of being told I don't want win, any trade where the 2 biggest pieces involved are Samuelsson and Laughton is a trade I don't want to make.

well idk. I'd actually like to see multiple deals to change this roster. 

My mindset is in terms of restructuring the roster and getting players that play differently from what we have. Our roster imo is too slanted in one direction and it doesn't have the various parts that a winning NHL roster requires. We need to move pieces where we have surpluses and get pieces where we have deficiencies. The value and the winning the trade doesn't concern me much. 

I'd like to hear actual trade ideas from people. Who do they want or think we could get and what would they give? It's easy to say "I want Skinner gone" (as I've said myself) but it's harder to make it happen. It's easy to say "we need" or "I want" but how and for who? What is everyone willing to actually do in concrete terms rather than vague wishes. 

[nfreeman]

OK -- how about these:

- Sabres trade Jiri Kulich and Ryan Johnson (or Matt Savoie and #11, or some other combination of those 4 assets) to FLA for Sam Bennett -- contingent on Bennett signing an extension for 6 years @ $7MM per year.  It's too much money and too much term for Bennett, who turns 28 in June, but he's not coming to Buffalo without getting that type of contract.

- Sabres trade Jiri Kulich and a 2024 2nd-rounder to Vegas for Nicolas Roy.  Vegas is close to capped out.  Roy is a 6'4", 202-lb C who is a 35- to 40-pt guy, turned 27 in February and makes $3MM per year.

- Sabres trade a 2024 2nd-rounder to the Islanders for Kyle Palmieri.  Palmieri, a 5'11", 198-lb RW who had 54 pts this season, will be 34 in February and has one more year on his contract at $5MM -- and the Isles are capped out.

[thewookie1]

36 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

OK -- how about these:

- Sabres trade Jiri Kulich and Ryan Johnson (or Matt Savoie and #11, or some other combination of those 4 assets) to FLA for Sam Bennett -- contingent on Bennett signing an extension for 6 years @ $7MM per year.  It's too much money and too much term for Bennett, who turns 28 in June, but he's not coming to Buffalo without getting that type of contract.

- Sabres trade Jiri Kulich and a 2024 2nd-rounder to Vegas for Nicolas Roy.  Vegas is close to capped out.  Roy is a 6'4", 202-lb C who is a 35- to 40-pt guy, turned 27 in February and makes $3MM per year.

- Sabres trade a 2024 2nd-rounder to the Islanders for Kyle Palmieri.  Palmieri, a 5'11", 198-lb RW who had 54 pts this season, will be 34 in February and has one more year on his contract at $5MM -- and the Isles are capped out.

The 1st one is really bad; Bennett is no where near worth that much both in assets and cap. 

2nd trade would certainly sting but at very least and potential assets,

3rd trade I'd use a 3rd not a 2nd.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

well idk. I'd actually like to see multiple deals to change this roster. 

My mindset is in terms of restructuring the roster and getting players that play differently from what we have. Our roster imo is too slanted in one direction and it doesn't have the various parts that a winning NHL roster requires. We need to move pieces where we have surpluses and get pieces where we have deficiencies. The value and the winning the trade doesn't concern me much. 

I'd like to hear actual trade ideas from people. Who do they want or think we could get and what would they give? It's easy to say "I want Skinner gone" (as I've said myself) but it's harder to make it happen. It's easy to say "we need" or "I want" but how and for who? What is everyone willing to actually do in concrete terms rather than vague wishes. 

 

A good off-season for me would be acquiring a veteran middle-six centre who can win faceoffs and two good grinding bottom 6 wingers.

A better one would include a goalie on a short-term deal that will force Levi to beat him out, and flipping Joki for similar-level RHD with more stay-at-home, physical game.

History says cap space along with a package including at least 2 of #11, Rosen, Kulich, Östlund, Savoie, Johnson and/or lesser picks or prospects will probably get you the big fish. Haven't really looked around at who might be a target. I've seen Bennett, Tavares and Couturier tossed out as names. Price depends on return.

A 2nd/3rd and/or equivalent prospect should get you the grinders if unrestricted free agency can't. Think what we paid for Greenway and Clifton. Again, haven't looked at targets, but guys like Joshua and Martinook fit the profile.

Edited May 17 by dudacek

[steveoath]

Would anyone attempt an offer sheet for Casey? I know it rarely happens but say 1x6M for a first round comp pick? 

[dudacek]

Here’s someone who fits my “this year’s 2021 Reinhart” model.

Marty Necas is a 25-year-old 5-year veteran RFA who wants more than Carolina is willing to pay him.

Friedman says he’s expected to hit the market. Wants term and the Canes won’t do it.

6’2” skilled, and fast. Former 12-overall pick in 2017 who broke out with 71 points 2 years ago after 3 years of 40ish. Dropped to 53 last year.

Not particularly physical or a shutdown guy, but his puck possession numbers are strong.

Plays RW but is naturally a centre and reportedly wants to play centre.

This is the the type of guy you could get for the Reinhart price of roughly 2 picks in the second half of the 1st, or equivalent prospects.

He shouldn’t cost more than Cozens on term and you’ve got him for at least 2 years for 5 or 6 if not.

He’s basically your Mitts replacement to a “T”.

Which is ironic because reports say he was going to be the Sabres pick at 8 in his draft year before newcomer Botterill overruled the holdover staff and took Casey.

[Buffalonill]

On 5/17/2024 at 2:54 PM, nfreeman said:

OK -- how about these:

- Sabres trade Jiri Kulich and Ryan Johnson (or Matt Savoie and #11, or some other combination of those 4 assets) to FLA for Sam Bennett -- contingent on Bennett signing an extension for 6 years @ $7MM per year.  It's too much money and too much term for Bennett, who turns 28 in June, but he's not coming to Buffalo without getting that type of contract.

- Sabres trade Jiri Kulich and a 2024 2nd-rounder to Vegas for Nicolas Roy.  Vegas is close to capped out.  Roy is a 6'4", 202-lb C who is a 35- to 40-pt guy, turned 27 in February and makes $3MM per year.

- Sabres trade a 2024 2nd-rounder to the Islanders for Kyle Palmieri.  Palmieri, a 5'11", 198-lb RW who had 54 pts this season, will be 34 in February and has one more year on his contract at $5MM -- and the Isles are capped out.

I would like bennett but his cost is that much ? 

[JohnC]

On 5/17/2024 at 3:54 PM, nfreeman said:

OK -- how about these:

- Sabres trade Jiri Kulich and Ryan Johnson (or Matt Savoie and #11, or some other combination of those 4 assets) to FLA for Sam Bennett -- contingent on Bennett signing an extension for 6 years @ $7MM per year.  It's too much money and too much term for Bennett, who turns 28 in June, but he's not coming to Buffalo without getting that type of contract.

- Sabres trade Jiri Kulich and a 2024 2nd-rounder to Vegas for Nicolas Roy.  Vegas is close to capped out.  Roy is a 6'4", 202-lb C who is a 35- to 40-pt guy, turned 27 in February and makes $3MM per year.

- Sabres trade a 2024 2nd-rounder to the Islanders for Kyle Palmieri.  Palmieri, a 5'11", 198-lb RW who had 54 pts this season, will be 34 in February and has one more year on his contract at $5MM -- and the Isles are capped out.

The proposed Bennett deal is too rich for me. Although I like the grit he would add to the lineup. However, I would be reluctant to give him the length and per annum amount that you also indicate would be problematic.

The Vegas deal for Roy makes sense. The remaining portion of Palmieri's contract seems too high for me. 

What your proposals demonstrate is that there are options for the GM to pursue this offseason. They don't have to be blockbuster deals so much as medium range deals that better round out our roster, i.e. the lower half of it. 

[LabattBlue]

I really feel KA will bring in ONE gritty player for the 4th line, promote the rest from within, and proclaim the problem is solved. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 5/18/2024 at 1:55 PM, dudacek said:

Here’s someone who fits my “this year’s 2021 Reinhart” model.

Marty Necas is a 25-year-old 5-year veteran RFA who wants more than Carolina is willing to pay him.

Friedman says he’s expected to hit the market. Wants term and the Canes won’t do it.

6’2” skilled, and fast. Former 12-overall pick in 2017 who broke out with 71 points 2 years ago after 3 years of 40ish. Dropped to 53 last year.

Not particularly physical or a shutdown guy, but his puck possession numbers are strong.

Plays RW but is naturally a centre and reportedly wants to play centre.

This is the the type of guy you could get for the Reinhart price of roughly 2 picks in the second half of the 1st, or equivalent prospects.

He shouldn’t cost more than Cozens on term and you’ve got him for at least 2 years for 5 or 6 if not.

He’s basically your Mitts replacement to a “T”.

Which is ironic because reports say he was going to be the Sabres pick at 8 in his draft year before newcomer Botterill overruled the holdover staff and took Casey.

Let me see if I understand your post.  We should trade two 1sts (or equivalent) for a less physical and less defensively aware version of Mitts and give him the same money that re-signing Mitts would have cost?  If that's the case, why trade Mitts? I thought the whole point of trading Mitts was for KA to avoid another long-term big forward contract.  I'm not against this move per se, but if this was the plan, why not re-sign Mitts and use the 2 1sts on a top 4 D, who adds a skill set we don't already have?  

[Archie Lee]

21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Let me see if I understand your post.  We should trade two 1sts (or equivalent) for a less physical and less defensively aware version of Mitts and give him the same money that re-signing Mitts would have cost?  If that's the case, why trade Mitts? I thought the whole point of trading Mitts was for KA to avoid another long-term big forward contract.  I'm not against this move per se, but if this was the plan, why not re-sign Mitts and use the 2 1sts on a top 4 D, who adds a skill set we don't already have?  

Dudacek can give his thoughts on whether he would prefer that we just kept Mitts.  His post on Necas is firmly in the real world though, where Mitts is gone. 
 

I like the Necas idea. Carolina loves their Finns and their D is going to have some losses this off-season. Maybe Joker ++ and we can get him?

Edited May 19 by Archie Lee

[Archie Lee]

On 5/18/2024 at 11:55 AM, dudacek said:

Here’s someone who fits my “this year’s 2021 Reinhart” model.

Marty Necas is a 25-year-old 5-year veteran RFA who wants more than Carolina is willing to pay him.

Friedman says he’s expected to hit the market. Wants term and the Canes won’t do it.

6’2” skilled, and fast. Former 12-overall pick in 2017 who broke out with 71 points 2 years ago after 3 years of 40ish. Dropped to 53 last year.

Not particularly physical or a shutdown guy, but his puck possession numbers are strong.

Plays RW but is naturally a centre and reportedly wants to play centre.

This is the the type of guy you could get for the Reinhart price of roughly 2 picks in the second half of the 1st, or equivalent prospects.

He shouldn’t cost more than Cozens on term and you’ve got him for at least 2 years for 5 or 6 if not.

He’s basically your Mitts replacement to a “T”.

Which is ironic because reports say he was going to be the Sabres pick at 8 in his draft year before newcomer Botterill overruled the holdover staff and took Casey.

Would Joker and 11 get Necas and 28?  

[oddoublee]

On 5/18/2024 at 1:55 PM, dudacek said:

Here’s someone who fits my “this year’s 2021 Reinhart” model.

Marty Necas is a 25-year-old 5-year veteran RFA who wants more than Carolina is willing to pay him.

Friedman says he’s expected to hit the market. Wants term and the Canes won’t do it.

6’2” skilled, and fast. Former 12-overall pick in 2017 who broke out with 71 points 2 years ago after 3 years of 40ish. Dropped to 53 last year.

Not particularly physical or a shutdown guy, but his puck possession numbers are strong.

Plays RW but is naturally a centre and reportedly wants to play centre.

This is the the type of guy you could get for the Reinhart price of roughly 2 picks in the second half of the 1st, or equivalent prospects.

He shouldn’t cost more than Cozens on term and you’ve got him for at least 2 years for 5 or 6 if not.

He’s basically your Mitts replacement to a “T”.

Which is ironic because reports say he was going to be the Sabres pick at 8 in his draft year before newcomer Botterill overruled the holdover staff and took Casey.

I looked at his face off numbers, and I believe he will fit in perfectly with this group!

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

Would Joker and 11 get Necas and 28?  

Would you trade Jack Quinn for Timothy Liljegren and the Leafs late first round ? 

[Archie Lee]

25 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Would you trade Jack Quinn for Timothy Liljegren and the Leafs late first round ? 

For many reasons, no. That’s nothing close to the situation Carolina is in or to what I asked or proposed though.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Dudacek can give his thoughts on whether he would prefer that we just kept Mitts.  His post on Necas is firmly in the real world though, where Mitts is gone. 
 

I like the Necas idea. Carolina loves their Finns and their D is going to have some losses this off-season. Maybe Joker ++ and we can get him?

As I said in my post, I'm not against the move, but it would be contrary to KA stated objective.  There is no question that we need to upgrade the center position.  He's a reasonable replacement for Mitts with potentially better goal scoring upside.  I also don't think KA has the b.... to make such a big trade. 

If the trade were made Krebs, 11 and a mid level prospect for Necas and 28 maybe?

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

For many reasons, no. That’s nothing close to the situation Carolina is in or to what I asked or proposed though.

What’s the difference?  Liljegren is a young RFA Defenseman who is a former first rounder slotted as 4-5. The net difference between 11 and 28 is about 700 points in the NHL trade value chart, or what the Leafs first round selection represents in and of itself.  That’s equivalent to your offer.  And the value of Necas to Quinn is similar.  The offer is too low.  I saw a proposal with the Wild for Rossi, Spurgean, plus to get Necas.  The Hurricanes have $27m in cap space so they aren’t hamstrung like other clubs might be.   It’s #11, Joki , plus something.  Not intending to be rude, just provided a different angle of an offer for perspective.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

As I said in my post, I'm not against the move, but it would be contrary to KA stated objective.  There is no question that we need to upgrade the center position.  He's a reasonable replacement for Mitts with potentially better goal scoring upside.  I also don't think KA has the b.... to make such a big trade. 

If the trade were made Krebs, 11 and a mid level prospect for Necas and 28 maybe?

The Mitts trade that brought us Byram would look even better if a comparable replacement is brought in for Mitts. I haven't given up on Krebs, but I don't see him having much value in the market right now. A Necas trade that cost us our first pick and a mid-level prospect appeals to me a lot. 

With respect to you questioning the size of KA's cajónes, I wouldn't consider the proposed Necas trade a major/daring deal. In my view, it would be a fair-value deal for each team for a player who probably won't be on either of our top two lines. 

Edited May 19 by JohnC

[GASabresIUFAN]

52 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The Mitts trade that brought us Byram would look even better if a comparable replacement is brought in for Mitts. I haven't given up on Krebs, but I don't see him having much value in the market right now. A Necas trade that cost us our first pick and a mid-level prospect appeals to me a lot. 

With respect to you questioning the size of KA's cajónes, I wouldn't consider the proposed Necas trade a major/daring deal. In my view, it would be a fair-value deal for each team for a player who probably won't be on either of our top two lines. 

KA is not a proactive GM when it comes finding veteran talent for his roster.  Every major deal has been reactive.  He's told to sign Hall, he signs Hall.  He is told to redo the rebuild and he trade Risto, Eichel and Reinhart.  He fails to sign Ullmark and has no plan B, thus signs Dell and Anderson.  The team is up against the internal cap because of the long-term extensions, so he can't re-sign Mitts and therefore trades him for whatever he can get even if that player doesn't really fit any need on the roster.

I guess the only thing he is proactive about is signing players to long-term deals after one good year.   Makes you wonder how he is going to be able to retain JJP and Quinn when they have another big year this coming season?

Trading for Necas is arguably again reactive since he doesn't have any centers after TNT and Cozens. At least it would be a move to add depth and talent where it's needed and Necas is at least a legit player.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

KA is not a proactive GM when it comes finding veteran talent for his roster.  Every major deal has been reactive.  He's told to sign Hall, he signs Hall.  He is told to redo the rebuild and he trade Risto, Eichel and Reinhart.  He fails to sign Ullmark and has no plan B, thus signs Dell and Anderson.  The team is up against the internal cap because of the long-term extensions, so he can't re-sign Mitts and therefore trades him for whatever he can get even if that player doesn't really fit any need on the roster.

I guess the only thing he is proactive about is signing players to long-term deals after one good year.   Makes you wonder how he is going to be able to retain JJP and Quinn when they have another big year this coming season?

Trading for Necas is arguably again reactive since he doesn't have any centers after TNT and Cozens. At least it would be a move to add depth and talent where it's needed and Necas is at least a legit player.

One of the biggest weaknesses that this GM has, and you seem to allude to, is his ability to assess pro talent. The Sabre organization has been solid in evaluating prospects but not too adept in assessing talent in the market. Apparently, it is more by design not to get involved in the market, and instead emphasize what one has in the system. That's a mistake simply because you are limiting your options to improve when some avenues are deliberately taken off the table. 

As far as I'm concerned, at this point, I simply don't care if a transaction is strategically made or are done reactively. The issue comes down to adding talent to the roster, one way or the other. I have not been as harsh a critic of this GM as many here are. But if he doesn't show a greater level of urgency this offseason through deeds, then my patience with him and his approach will be exhausted. There is no excuse for him not to make moves to improve and better balance this roster.   

[Archie Lee]

15 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

What’s the difference?  Liljegren is a young RFA Defenseman who is a former first rounder slotted as 4-5. The net difference between 11 and 28 is about 700 points in the NHL trade value chart, or what the Leafs first round selection represents in and of itself.  That’s equivalent to your offer.  And the value of Necas to Quinn is similar.  The offer is too low.  I saw a proposal with the Wild for Rossi, Spurgean, plus to get Necas.  The Hurricanes have $27m in cap space so they aren’t hamstrung like other clubs might be.   It’s #11, Joki , plus something.  Not intending to be rude, just provided a different angle of an offer for perspective.

Thanks for the thoughtful response.  To summarize, your view is that a trade of Joker + #11 for Necas + #28 is not something Carolina would entertain because there is not a significant enough value gain in moving up to pick 11 from 28 to bridge the value gap between Joker and Necas.  I think that is likely correct.

Edited May 20 by Archie Lee

[Archie Lee]

14 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

What’s the difference?  Liljegren is a young RFA Defenseman who is a former first rounder slotted as 4-5. The net difference between 11 and 28 is about 700 points in the NHL trade value chart, or what the Leafs first round selection represents in and of itself.  That’s equivalent to your offer.  And the value of Necas to Quinn is similar.  The offer is too low.  I saw a proposal with the Wild for Rossi, Spurgean, plus to get Necas.  The Hurricanes have $27m in cap space so they aren’t hamstrung like other clubs might be.   It’s #11, Joki , plus something.  Not intending to be rude, just provided a different angle of an offer for perspective.

Back to the comparable Quinn trade, my primary reasons for rejecting such a trade right now, are that we have no need to move Quinn, and we don't have any particular need for the 23rd overall pick and/or Liljegren.  Flash forward a year and lets say that we are in a position similar to Carolina is now, and we have made roster moves that make it impossible to re-sign Peterka, Quinn, Byram, Levi and Greenway and the decision is that Quinn is the odd man out. In that scenario (assuming Quinn stays on a steady positive trajectory and he is the best piece in the trade), would Quinn return greater value than #23 OA and a youngish right-shot 4-5 d-man?  

I'm genuinely not sure.  I'm neither trying to over or under value any of these assets.  Just asking.

[LGR4GM]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

KA is not a proactive GM when it comes finding veteran talent for his roster.  Every major deal has been reactive.  He's told to sign Hall, he signs Hall.  He is told to redo the rebuild and he trade Risto, Eichel and Reinhart.  He fails to sign Ullmark and has no plan B, thus signs Dell and Anderson.  The team is up against the internal cap because of the long-term extensions, so he can't re-sign Mitts and therefore trades him for whatever he can get even if that player doesn't really fit any need on the roster.

I guess the only thing he is proactive about is signing players to long-term deals after one good year.   Makes you wonder how he is going to be able to retain JJP and Quinn when they have another big year this coming season?

Trading for Necas is arguably again reactive since he doesn't have any centers after TNT and Cozens. At least it would be a move to add depth and talent where it's needed and Necas is at least a legit player.

I don't agree with this line at all. It was very clear that after the failed Kruger/Hall fiasco season that Adams came up with the rebuild plan and sold it to Terry.

We aren't trading for Necas IMPO. As you say, Adams is reactive and he will leave the top 6 in place and react later if they suck again under Ruff. 

[Archie Lee]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't agree with this line at all. It was very clear that after the failed Kruger/Hall fiasco season that Adams came up with the rebuild plan and sold it to Terry.

We aren't trading for Necas IMPO. As you say, Adams is reactive and he will leave the top 6 in place and react later if they suck again under Ruff. 

Also, unless we are trading someone, or demoting Greenway to line 4, or buying out Skinner, there is no room in the top 9 (at least, not for a winger).