Off-season Game Plan 2024

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

Ruff won't be coming to the team with the same history that Granato had with Skinner so he won't be nearly as gun shy as Don was to demote Skinner to where he should've been based on his play.  He doesn't play well with others but can create on his own pretty well.  Let him be an overachiever on a bottom 6 line and MAYBE the 2nd PP unit rather than the guy killing the 1st line and the top PP should they actually get the puck into the zone.  Have faith that Ruff will see what Skinner is.

 

 

If Skinner can be a 25-30 goal scorer on a third line, that would be terrific. I'm assuming he would get PP time in order to get into that scoring range as a third line player. How Ruff handles Skinner is an intriguing issue. As is how Skinner adapts to Ruff and what he expects from his new coach. As you point out, he is more of a lone ranger player than someone who blends in well with his line mates. But there is great utility in having a goal scorer who doesn't play on either of the top two lines. 

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Back in March, after the trade deadline, Adams said the 2 things he wanted to bring in was a veteran top 9 winger (which, reading between the lines is actually a top 6 winger but he didn't want to say that publicly because realistically bringing in a top 6 W forces Skinner to the 3rd (or even 4th) line) and a 4C that can win faceoffs and kill penalties (and, again, reading between the lines, Krebs was in a tryout to see if he could lock down the 3C role; considering he didn't, could easily see that "4C" that Adams wants be a legit 3C).

Can't believe that Adams is going to pencil Benson into the top 2 lines at 19 yo.  See the top 6 as Peterka - Thompson - Tuch and New Guy - Cozens - Quinn.  With Benson and Greenway flanking a new 3C.  Leaving Skinner (and very likely Girgensons) flanking Krebs in a very weird 4th line.  Ruff will likely give Skinner a chance to be on the 3rd line, but can't see him seizing that opportunity. 

Ruff won't be coming to the team with the same history that Granato had with Skinner so he won't be nearly as gun shy as Don was to demote Skinner to where he should've been based on his play.  He doesn't play well with others but can create on his own pretty well.  Let him be an overachiever on a bottom 6 line and MAYBE the 2nd PP unit rather than the guy killing the 1st line and the top PP should they actually get the puck into the zone.  Have faith that Ruff will see what Skinner is.

 

Personally, expect a LOT of the lack of leadership was due to the coaches not really coaching and then guys like Tuch, Dahlin, and Cozens deferring to Okposo and Girgensons as they were officially the leaders.  Am fine with Girgensons coming back, but if he has a letter again, something is wrong in the state of Denmark.  That and the fact that the team was REALLY young.  There were a lot of guys that had been leaders at lower levels, but they haven't been around a winning organization at this level and can't really be expected to know what it takes to win at this level when the coaching never fully really left development mode.

Am expecting the captain to be either Dahlin or Tuch (and am fine with either, though do have a preference) with Cozens wearing the other A.  Really am looking forward to seeing what moves do get made this off-season both on the ice and on the bench.  Am hoping Ruff brings in a really experienced guy (maybe Bob Woods for the PP?) and 1 young guy that seems really sharp and can relate well to the younger guys (Peca would fit the bill).  Bringing in a guy that's been a HC would be good too and might finally get Ellis off the bench.

Good to have you back

[Turbo44]

19 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

 

I doubt Skinner has any intention on leaving and Muel isn't just getting waived.

Joker will get 4 mil approximately regardless based on his previous contract.

Stephenson won't take 4mil year for sure

Tanev won't take 3 mil for sure

 

I do apologize for bursting your bubble.

Agree contract estimates are all $1milion to $2million too low

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

If Skinner can be a 25-30 goal scorer on a third line, that would be terrific. I'm assuming he would get PP time in order to get into that scoring range as a third line player. How Ruff handles Skinner is an intriguing issue. As is how Skinner adapts to Ruff and what he expects from his new coach. As you point out, he is more of a lone ranger player than someone who blends in well with his line mates. But there is great utility in having a goal scorer who doesn't play on either of the top two lines. 

Lone ranger? He's not even Tonto. 

[Archie Lee]

14 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd love to get out from Skinners contract because they need someone more dynamic. But Pegula and Botterill f-d us there. He can decline any trade. I think text summer you buy him out. 

Serious question, what’s your logic for waiting a year?  The buyout cap hits?  Or do you think we still might get enough value from Skinner to make the $9 million cap hit at least somewhat palatable?

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Serious question, what’s your logic for waiting a year?  The buyout cap hits?  Or do you think we still might get enough value from Skinner to make the $9 million cap hit at least somewhat palatable?

The salary cap and his caphits. We can afford him this year without issues. Once Quinn and JJP need payment we won't be able to afford Skinner. It gives you depth this year for the top 6 and gives all the other prospects another yr development. Ik he's not in favor here, but he's a 20+ goal scorer getting you 60pts so until you have that in someone else, just buying him out seems premature. With all that in mind, next summer. 4 years of caphits that are about 500k less than this years buyout with a full extra year of dead cap at the end eliminated by waiting. 

[Archie Lee]

37 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The salary cap and his caphits. We can afford him this year without issues. Once Quinn and JJP need payment we won't be able to afford Skinner. It gives you depth this year for the top 6 and gives all the other prospects another yr development. Ik he's not in favor here, but he's a 20+ goal scorer getting you 60pts so until you have that in someone else, just buying him out seems premature. With all that in mind, next summer. 4 years of caphits that are about 500k less than this years buyout with a full extra year of dead cap at the end eliminated by waiting. 

These are all good points. 

Up until the end of this last season, I had never contemplated a Skinner buyout seriously. The length and cost of any buyout always seemed a bit absurd, at least until you got to year 8. Looking at it closely for the first time, I’m actually kind of convinced that it was structured to make this year the inflection point. This is the year where the debate needs to occur and management needs to weigh the value of $7.5 million in extra cap space this off-season vs the drag of an extra year’s cap hit of $2.5 million in 2029-30. There are a few points that tip me towards a buyout this June:

- I think we may have reached the point where Skinner, all things considered, does not meet the value of even half his AAV.  He was never worth $9 million but at his best he was maybe worth $7 million and you could swallow hard and accept that he got to UFA status and got himself paid. I think we are now at a point where what you can get with the cap space saved with a buyout is more than what you can get from Skinner at his AAV. 

- The cost of a buyout now vs next year is really only one year at approx $2.5 million. The approximate $500k extra cap hit the 4 years after this year is not immaterial, but it is also not a huge issue and it won’t ultimately be the difference between keeping Quinn and Peterka and losing them (if things go well, keeping both will be tough regardless). Critically to this argument is that the one year where it really hurts (the extra 6th year) is 2029-2030. I don’t want to get in a habit of throwing away future cap space, but a dead cap hit of $2.5 million 6 years from now should not be a huge concern relative to the importance of making the playoffs in 2024-2025. 

- Which leads to the final point. We get $7.5 million in space this off-season, one of the most critical in franchise history, with a buyout now. The question should be: are we a better hockey team this year with Jeff Skinner at $9 million or are we better with whatever players we can add using the $7.5 we save with a buyout? 

[Taro T]

10 hours ago, JohnC said:

If Skinner can be a 25-30 goal scorer on a third line, that would be terrific. I'm assuming he would get PP time in order to get into that scoring range as a third line player. How Ruff handles Skinner is an intriguing issue. As is how Skinner adapts to Ruff and what he expects from his new coach. As you point out, he is more of a lone ranger player than someone who blends in well with his line mates. But there is great utility in having a goal scorer who doesn't play on either of the top two lines. 

He might be able to get to close to 30 on the 3rd or 4th line, but am guessing about 22 is more realistic.  Which is still acceptable.  (Forget what he costs in $'s, his contract won't be what's keeping Adams from making necessary moves.)

18 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

These are all good points. 

Up until the end of this last season, I had never contemplated a Skinner buyout seriously. The length and cost of any buyout always seemed a bit absurd, at least until you got to year 8. Looking at it closely for the first time, I’m actually kind of convinced that it was structured to make this year the inflection point. This is the year where the debate needs to occur and management needs to weigh the value of $7.5 million in extra cap space this off-season vs the drag of an extra year’s cap hit of $2.5 million in 2029-30. There are a few points that tip me towards a buyout this June:

- I think we may have reached the point where Skinner, all things considered, does not meet the value of even half his AAV.  He was never worth $9 million but at his best he was maybe worth $7 million and you could swallow hard and accept that he got to UFA status and got himself paid. I think we are now at a point where what you can get with the cap space saved with a buyout is more than what you can get from Skinner at his AAV. 

- The cost of a buyout now vs next year is really only one year at approx $2.5 million. The approximate $500k extra cap hit the 4 years after this year is not immaterial, but it is also not a huge issue and it won’t ultimately be the difference between keeping Quinn and Peterka and losing them (if things go well, keeping both will be tough regardless). Critically to this argument is that the one year where it really hurts (the extra 6th year) is 2029-2030. I don’t want to get in a habit of throwing away future cap space, but a dead cap hit of $2.5 million 6 years from now should not be a huge concern relative to the importance of making the playoffs in 2024-2025. 

- Which leads to the final point. We get $7.5 million in space this off-season, one of the most critical in franchise history, with a buyout now. The question should be: are we a better hockey team this year with Jeff Skinner at $9 million or are we better with whatever players we can add using the $7.5 we save with a buyout? 

Really don't see Skinner's contract keeping Adams from making moves this off-season.  And if the contract isn't limiting what Adams is going to do, then there's no pressing reason to saddle the team with reduced cap for 5 seasons beyond this next one.

Would be surprised if Skinner's 8th year doesn't get bought out, but not even convinced that the 7th year will necessarily have to be bought out.  Personally expect that to be a function of what moves Adams makes next off-season provided the Sabres made the playoffs next year and Adams is still making those decisions.  

Don't forget, the cap will be going up in the future pretty significantly with the players now having repaid the owners COVID clawback AND while Utah shouldn't affect the national TV contracts, it will increase overall HRR relative to what would've come in from 5k seat Mullett.  Not completely convinced that they won't be able to squeeze Peterka, Quinn, Levi, and Greenway into the cap next year even with Skinner still on the books.  And if the team does make the playoffs, could see where Adams does essentially run back status quo as so many pieces on the roster will be improving simply by being closer to their primes.  And at least one of the "big 4" and likely 2 of them will be ready for the NHL next season and Novikov might be making one of this year's pencilled in 8 expendable too.

[Doohicksie]

On 5/10/2024 at 2:14 PM, seer775 said:

I just thought of something genius. 

Canes can't score. Jeff Skinner only does scoring, and he does it pretty well. 

Trade Jeff back to the Canes for future considerations. 

That only works if they fire RBA.

[Archie Lee]

32 minutes ago, Taro T said:

He might be able to get to close to 30 on the 3rd or 4th line, but am guessing about 22 is more realistic.  Which is still acceptable.  (Forget what he costs in $'s, his contract won't be what's keeping Adams from making necessary moves.)

Really don't see Skinner's contract keeping Adams from making moves this off-season.  And if the contract isn't limiting what Adams is going to do, then there's no pressing reason to saddle the team with reduced cap for 5 seasons beyond this next one.

Would be surprised if Skinner's 8th year doesn't get bought out, but not even convinced that the 7th year will necessarily have to be bought out.  Personally expect that to be a function of what moves Adams makes next off-season provided the Sabres made the playoffs next year and Adams is still making those decisions.  

Don't forget, the cap will be going up in the future pretty significantly with the players now having repaid the owners COVID clawback AND while Utah shouldn't affect the national TV contracts, it will increase overall HRR relative to what would've come in from 5k seat Mullett.  Not completely convinced that they won't be able to squeeze Peterka, Quinn, Levi, and Greenway into the cap next year even with Skinner still on the books.  And if the team does make the playoffs, could see where Adams does essentially run back status quo as so many pieces on the roster will be improving simply by being closer to their primes.  And at least one of the "big 4" and likely 2 of them will be ready for the NHL next season and Novikov might be making one of this year's pencilled in 8 expendable too.

These are all valid points. But we don’t have as much space as some might think. Give our RFA’s the extensions predicted by Evolving Hockey and promote Levi, Johnson and Rousek to back-up roles and there is about 8 million left to acquire meaningful forward additions. Of course, you can move existing players in trades (Joker as an example) and create space. But the space available to make substantive changes is hindered to a degree (not impossible by any means) with Skinner’s hit. 

Eight of this years playoff teams have dead cap extending past this season. Vancouver and Nashville have substantial dead cap hits extending 4 & 5 years respectively. Those are two teams whose leadership has been praised for addressing team needs and getting their franchises turned around and back in the playoffs in short order. The buyouts they committed to have played a big role in allowing them to make the changes they made. 
 

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

These are all valid points. But we don’t have as much space as some might think. Give our RFA’s the extensions predicted by Evolving Hockey and promote Levi, Johnson and Rousek to back-up roles and there is about 8 million left to acquire meaningful forward additions. Of course, you can move existing players in trades (Joker as an example) and create space. But the space available to make substantive changes is hindered to a degree (not impossible by any means) with Skinner’s hit. 

Eight of this years playoff teams have dead cap extending past this season. Vancouver and Nashville have substantial dead cap hits extending 4 & 5 years respectively. Those are two teams whose leadership has been praised for addressing team needs and getting their franchises turned around and back in the playoffs in short order. The buyouts they committed to have played a big role in allowing them to make the changes they made. 
 

And $8MM in space should be enough to add a 2nd line W and a 3C.  Though there are other spots that could stand improving, those are the only 2 (besides giving the 4th line an identity whatever he means by that) that Adams has said he will fill.  Past history shows that unless Adams has talked about needing to add in an area, he doesn't bring somebody in from outside.

IF something falls into his lap, can see Adams buying out Skinner.  Just would be quite surprised were it to happen this off-season.  Not completely sold on the idea that he'll be bought out next year for the reasons already stated above, but can see that being more of a 40-60 proposition.  Don't see him on the roster for that 8th year unless something really unexpected happens.

[Doohicksie]

On 5/11/2024 at 9:16 AM, French Collection said:

in a pairing with Clark Kent.

😄

On 5/11/2024 at 9:28 AM, seer775 said:

Jost is an upgrade on Krebs / Girgs.

Not sure I agree... at least over the long haul.  I think Krebs still hasn't hit his ceiling.  I can see the case for saying that right now, Jost is the better player.

[Doohicksie]

On 5/11/2024 at 12:03 PM, French Collection said:

Muel can be our Mark Stone.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

These are all good points. 

Up until the end of this last season, I had never contemplated a Skinner buyout seriously. The length and cost of any buyout always seemed a bit absurd, at least until you got to year 8. Looking at it closely for the first time, I’m actually kind of convinced that it was structured to make this year the inflection point. This is the year where the debate needs to occur and management needs to weigh the value of $7.5 million in extra cap space this off-season vs the drag of an extra year’s cap hit of $2.5 million in 2029-30. There are a few points that tip me towards a buyout this June:

- I think we may have reached the point where Skinner, all things considered, does not meet the value of even half his AAV.  He was never worth $9 million but at his best he was maybe worth $7 million and you could swallow hard and accept that he got to UFA status and got himself paid. I think we are now at a point where what you can get with the cap space saved with a buyout is more than what you can get from Skinner at his AAV. 

- The cost of a buyout now vs next year is really only one year at approx $2.5 million. The approximate $500k extra cap hit the 4 years after this year is not immaterial, but it is also not a huge issue and it won’t ultimately be the difference between keeping Quinn and Peterka and losing them (if things go well, keeping both will be tough regardless). Critically to this argument is that the one year where it really hurts (the extra 6th year) is 2029-2030. I don’t want to get in a habit of throwing away future cap space, but a dead cap hit of $2.5 million 6 years from now should not be a huge concern relative to the importance of making the playoffs in 2024-2025. 

- Which leads to the final point. We get $7.5 million in space this off-season, one of the most critical in franchise history, with a buyout now. The question should be: are we a better hockey team this year with Jeff Skinner at $9 million or are we better with whatever players we can add using the $7.5 we save with a buyout? 

Im sorry but this is short sighted and doesn't view the cap ramifications over time. In 2026-2027 the cap hit for Jeff is 6.4 million and then it is 2.44million for 3 years after that if you buy him out this offseason. You do get a savings this offseason, but who cares? This is the least important offseason to have that cap savings as the Sabres A. already have the space to bring in a higher end player (which they wont) and B. don't have to worry about Quinn and JJP next contract, so having that space is superfluous. Meanwhile if you simply wait until next offseason, you save 2.4million in 2029/30. You save 445k every single other year and still save 5million on the cap for year 1 of the new Quinn/JJP deal. It makes far more logical sense to wait one year, especially when as I noted it gives you depth. Jeff Skinner isn't a bad player, he just isn't worth 9million. 

Buy him out next year and spend this year trying to trade him. You can always use him on lines 1-3 and he is almost guaranteed to be better under Ruff and have a bounce back year. 

[Doohicksie]

On 5/12/2024 at 8:32 AM, seer775 said:

If KA is serious about winning, he will find a way out of Jeff Skinner.

This isn't a video game.  He has three options to move Skinner off the team:

1. Trade him, but who will take him and will he waive his no trade clause?  The Sabres would need to retain a significant portion of his salary or accept cap dump of crappy players from another team which won't help the Sabres situation.
2. Buy him out, which won't help the cap situation.
3. Waive him a la Matt Moulson and let him play out his contract in the AHL, but again, that won't help the cap situation (as we saw with Matty Mo).

 

[Taro T]

14 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

This isn't a video game.  He has three options to move Skinner off the team:

1. Trade him, but who will take him and will he waive his no trade clause?  The Sabres would need to retain a significant portion of his salary or accept cap dump of crappy players from another team which won't help the Sabres situation.
2. Buy him out, which won't help the cap situation.
3. Waive him a la Matt Moulson and let him play out his contract in the AHL, but again, that won't help the cap situation (as we saw with Matty Mo).

 

IF they trade him and retain say 1/2 of the salary, they've reduced the length of time that they're losing cap space from 6 years via a buyout down to just 3 years.  So, there would be a value in that.

Pretty sure he doesn't just have a NTC but actually a NMC, meaning he is NOT seeing the AHL unless he wants to be there.  It is not happening.

Leaving just 1 & 2 as options to get him off the roster.  Neither seems worth it vs just keeping him around for this season.  Were his contract less, nobody would care if he were the loose cannon on the 3rd or 4th line.  His contract isn't keeping Adams from making any move he'd ACTUALLY make this year, so personally can't see a reason to buy him out.  And he holds the cards regarding a trade.  Get used to watching him play as a Sabre again.

[Archie Lee]

35 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

This isn't a video game.  He has three options to move Skinner off the team:

1. Trade him, but who will take him and will he waive his no trade clause?  The Sabres would need to retain a significant portion of his salary or accept cap dump of crappy players from another team which won't help the Sabres situation.
2. Buy him out, which won't help the cap situation.
3. Waive him a la Matt Moulson and let him play out his contract in the AHL, but again, that won't help the cap situation (as we saw with Matty Mo).

 

#3 isn’t an option as he has a full NMC. 
 

There is absolute cap benefit to a buyout. $7.5 this year, $4.5 next year and $2.5 the year after that. The downside to the cap is the $2.5 hit in years 4-6. 

[Doohicksie]

21 minutes ago, Taro T said:

IF they trade him and retain say 1/2 of the salary, they've reduced the length of time that they're losing cap space from 6 years via a buyout down to just 3 years.  So, there would be a value in that.

Yes, that's true, but you capitalized IF for a reason.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

Yes, that's true, but you capitalized IF for a reason.

Honestly, not 100% why the F in the IF was capitalized.  Probably was merely stressing, without writing a novella (but then there is THIS post, so much for the lack of writing a novella 😉 ) that it's looking at a particular version of trading him (1/2 salary retained; depending upon what comes back for him, could see it only being 1/3 retained should Adams find a team that would take him AND Skinner would be willing to play for). 

Or, it might've just been the shift key sticking on a rainy humid day.

[LGR4GM]

Welp, it is clear Adams isn't bringing substantial good veterans to fix the bottom six. He's gonna bring up 2-3 Amerks, probably re-sign Zemgus, and run a bottom 6 of...

Rosen - Krebs - Savoie

Zemgus - New Guy - Murray

Can totally see this without even blinking. 

Greenway and Skinner will be rotating in depending on injury as Rosen and Savoie sit at times. 

JJP - Tage - Tuch

Benson - Cozens - Quinn

Greenway - Krebs - Skinner

Zemgus - New Guy - rotating cast of Rosen, Savoie, Murray (who will be moved up the lineup depending on who's going)

Edited May 13 by LGR4GM

[thewookie1]

43 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Welp, it is clear Adams isn't bringing substantial good veterans to fix the bottom six. He's gonna bring up 2-3 Amerks, probably re-sign Zemgus, and run a bottom 6 of...

Rosen - Krebs - Savoie

Zemgus - New Guy - Murray

Can totally see this without even blinking. 

Greenway and Skinner will be rotating in depending on injury as Rosen and Savoie sit at times. 

JJP - Tage - Tuch

Benson - Cozens - Quinn

Greenway - Krebs - Skinner

Zemgus - New Guy - rotating cast of Rosen, Savoie, Murray (who will be moved up the lineup depending on who's going)

I can't see them trying that; no one would buy tickets and fans would become downright toxic.

[Flashsabre]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Welp, it is clear Adams isn't bringing substantial good veterans to fix the bottom six. He's gonna bring up 2-3 Amerks, probably re-sign Zemgus, and run a bottom 6 of...

Rosen - Krebs - Savoie

Zemgus - New Guy - Murray

Can totally see this without even blinking. 

Greenway and Skinner will be rotating in depending on injury as Rosen and Savoie sit at times. 

JJP - Tage - Tuch

Benson - Cozens - Quinn

Greenway - Krebs - Skinner

Zemgus - New Guy - rotating cast of Rosen, Savoie, Murray (who will be moved up the lineup depending on who's going)

This is you just making stuff up.

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

This is you just making stuff up.

This is him responding to patterns he wants to see the Sabres break through the lens of evidence today that they won’t.

 

[Doohicksie]

11 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

This is you just making stuff up.

Well, it is a fan forum...

[SwampD]

I’m surprised that so many take into account the cap when thinking about future personnel decisions. Nothing like putting the cart before the horse. Maybe if the Sabres were a perennial deep playoff team and we had to figure out who to keep and who to let go, but, c’mon, they still suck. I just don’t think it plays even a little bit into their decision making yet. Can we, at least, wait until they are good to talk about them like they actually are good? It’s not like they’re going to run up against the cap any time soon.

I think actual salary matters more right now.