RFA, Ukko Pekka Luukkonen - what would you sign him for?

[LGR4GM]

Guys an RFA and has played like one of the best goaltenders in the NHL since Jan 1. Levi exists and Adams clearly likes him so what do they do here? I don't think you go longer term (over 5 years) with any goalie but I am good in the 4yr 4milaav range. 

[Buffalonill]

2 - 3 year deal 

[mjd1001]

I think you need him here next year, and hopfully a bit beyond, so like everything else, you negotiate and see what he and his agent think is market is.  The Sabres aren't up against the cap now, so I don't cheap out on a deal.  It would be different if he wanted 7 years for 56 million....that isn't happening, so I'm willing to overpay (if needed) on a short to medium term deal in order to keep him here.  

I know some will say don't overpay him, he's only been good for half of a season. I get that, but to me, you can't risk not having him here next year or trading him because he demands a contract that you can easily fit under the cap.

You gave Clifton 3.3 million for 3 years, and even if he never played again that contract isn't going to sink your cap or your team. You gave Samuelsson 4.3 million long term. UPL has potentially (and LIKELY) much more value to the team than any of them.  So yeah, get the best deal you can, but don't cheap out and risk him going to arbitration (possibly getting more than you would give him in a medium term deal) and eventually him wanting out.

[mjd1001]

I posted this a couple months ago, regarding comparables......and this was when he was just starting to play better, he has a longer stretch of good play since this was posted....UPL will likely have 45-50 career wins at the end of this year with 5 or more shutouts. Also keep in mind the goalies listed below were signed with a lower cap. I would expect any of those deals if signed this year would be 5% higher with the cap going up since then.

 

UPL was drafted in the 2nd round in 2017....so..I thought I'd look up what other goalies were drafted in the year or two before him (that might be on their 2nd contract now), how successful they have been and what they got paid at a similar point in their career:

-Connor Ingram (3rd rounder, 2016).  Waiver pickup. 3 yr, $5.85m contract. (1.95 per year) 7 career wins upon signing

-Philp Gustavsson (2nd rounder, 2016). 3 yr, $11.25m contract. (3.75 per year) 32 wins upon signing

-Carter Hart (2nd round, 2016). 3 yr, $11.9m contract. (3.97 per year)  49 career wins upon signing

-MacKenzie Blackwood (2nd round, 2015). 3 yr, $8.4m contact (2.8 per year) 24 career wins upon signing

-Ilya Samsonov (late 1st round, 2015). 1yr, $3.5m contact. (3.5 per year) 79 career wins upon signing

[Believer]

He’s a RFA… Offer him $6-7M for 3 years… If UPL decides to negotiate an offer sheet with another team, match it so we don’t lose our investment in him… The market will decide.

[R_Dudley]

21 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I posted this a couple months ago, regarding comparables......and this was when he was just starting to play better, he has a longer stretch of good play since this was posted....UPL will likely have 45-50 career wins at the end of this year with 5 or more shutouts. Also keep in mind the goalies listed below were signed with a lower cap. I would expect any of those deals if signed this year would be 5% higher with the cap going up since then.

 

UPL was drafted in the 2nd round in 2017....so..I thought I'd look up what other goalies were drafted in the year or two before him (that might be on their 2nd contract now), how successful they have been and what they got paid at a similar point in their career:

-Connor Ingram (3rd rounder, 2016).  Waiver pickup. 3 yr, $5.85m contract. (1.95 per year) 7 career wins upon signing

-Philp Gustavsson (2nd rounder, 2016). 3 yr, $11.25m contract. (3.75 per year) 32 wins upon signing

-Carter Hart (2nd round, 2016). 3 yr, $11.9m contract. (3.97 per year)  49 career wins upon signing

-MacKenzie Blackwood (2nd round, 2015). 3 yr, $8.4m contact (2.8 per year) 24 career wins upon signing

-Ilya Samsonov (late 1st round, 2015). 1yr, $3.5m contact. (3.5 per year) 79 career wins upon signing

Looking at those numbers I would say 3.5 to 4 million a year.  Closer to 4 on a 3 year and closer to 3.5 annual on a 4-year contract for longer term.

[mjd1001]

Just now, R_Dudley said:

Looking at those numbers I would say 3.5 to 4 million a year.  Closer to 4 on a 3 year and closer to 3.5 annual on a 4-year contract for longer term.

I agree that is likely and probably make sense.  If he is demanding $4.5-$5, and him and his agent don't move off of that, I'm not sure at some point I don't try to make a deal.   I think fair value for him is probably $4m or a bit more based on his age, pedigree, and recent peformance, as well as comparables.  With this team needing a little stability in goal, I'm just not sure I play hardball over an extra $0.5-1M per year at a position that is so important to this team now and you likely will not mave many other options.

13 minutes ago, Believer said:

He’s a RFA… Offer him $6-7M for 3 years… If UPL decides to negotiate an offer sheet with another team, match it so we don’t lose our investment in him… The market will decide.

I think that number would be a bit high and he'd take it for sure.

I'm all for slightly overpaying him, and even I think that is high..

[Mango]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I agree that is likely and probably make sense.  If he is demanding $4.5-$5, and him and his agent don't move off of that, I'm not sure at some point I don't try to make a deal.   I think fair value for him is probably $4m or a bit more based on his age, pedigree, and recent peformance, as well as comparables.  With this team needing a little stability in goal, I'm just not sure I play hardball over an extra $0.5-1M per year at a position that is so important to this team now and you likely will not mave many other options.

I think that number would be a bit high and he'd take it for sure.

I'm all for slightly overpaying him, and even I think that is high..

I disagree. Adams and Donnie cannot afford to let another Ullmark walk. And frankly neither can the team. 

This team is in no place to walk away over a $0.5M -$1.5 AAV difference for a goalie who was close to the very best in the league since January 1. 

Edited April 5 by Mango

[R_Dudley]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

I disagree. Adams and Donnie cannot afford to let another Ullmark walk. And frankly neither can the team. 

This team is in no place to walk away over a $0.5M -$1.5 AAV difference for a goalie who was close to the very best in the league since January 1. 

I don't think anyone watching him play last 4 months would disagree with this, just would have been nice to see it a bit earlier in his play to ensure its his new normal. 

[mjd1001]

48 minutes ago, Mango said:

I disagree. Adams and Donnie cannot afford to let another Ullmark walk. And frankly neither can the team. 

This team is in no place to walk away over a $0.5M -$1.5 AAV difference for a goalie who was close to the very best in the league since January 1. 

Maybe I got wordy and didn't choose my words well, but I think we do agree. I'm saying that you do sign him, you do not quibble over a little money, that he is that important to the team that you just get it done.

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I posted this a couple months ago, regarding comparables......and this was when he was just starting to play better, he has a longer stretch of good play since this was posted....UPL will likely have 45-50 career wins at the end of this year with 5 or more shutouts. Also keep in mind the goalies listed below were signed with a lower cap. I would expect any of those deals if signed this year would be 5% higher with the cap going up since then.

 

UPL was drafted in the 2nd round in 2017....so..I thought I'd look up what other goalies were drafted in the year or two before him (that might be on their 2nd contract now), how successful they have been and what they got paid at a similar point in their career:

-Connor Ingram (3rd rounder, 2016).  Waiver pickup. 3 yr, $5.85m contract. (1.95 per year) 7 career wins upon signing

-Philp Gustavsson (2nd rounder, 2016). 3 yr, $11.25m contract. (3.75 per year) 32 wins upon signing

-Carter Hart (2nd round, 2016). 3 yr, $11.9m contract. (3.97 per year)  49 career wins upon signing

-MacKenzie Blackwood (2nd round, 2015). 3 yr, $8.4m contact (2.8 per year) 24 career wins upon signing

-Ilya Samsonov (late 1st round, 2015). 1yr, $3.5m contact. (3.5 per year) 79 career wins upon signing

Nice work. If I was UPL’s agent, my comparable is Demko. They were both drafted in rd 2, three years apart. At age 25 Demko signed a 5x5 extension. Demko’s pro #’s were better and more consistent at that point then UPL’s, but:

- Demko had played substantially fewer NHL games;

- Goal scoring is up and save %’s are down since Demko signed; and 

- The cap is going up. 
 

We will find out this off-season how much Adams believes in UPL. If he does not get 4-5 years at $4 million plus, then Adams either is not sold on UPL or is still more of a believer in Levi, or both. 

Edited April 5 by Archie Lee

[mjd1001]

6 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Nice work. If I was UPL’s agent, my comparable is Demko. They were both drafted in rd 2, three years apart. At age 25 Demko signed a 5x5 extension. Demko’s pro #’s were better and more consistent at that point then UPL’s, but:

- Demko had played substantially fewer NHL games;

- Goal scoring is up and save %’s are down since Demko signed; and 

- The cap is going up. 
 

We will find out this off-season how much Adams believes in UPL. If he does not get 4-5 years at $4 million plus, then Adams either is not sold on UPL or is still more of a believer in Levi, or both. 

I agree.

But this is the reason why a 3 year deal with him make just so much sense.  Even if you beleilve in Levi, there is nothing wrong with Levi being a backup, or them coming close to splitting starts.

Lets say you pay UPL for 3-4 years, and he is who he is (average to above average at least) AND Levi comes on strong and becomes very good to great....what do you do with UPL?  you now have a VERY good backup...OR a very, VERY good trade piece.

[Archie Lee]

13 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I agree.

But this is the reason why a 3 year deal with him make just so much sense.  Even if you beleilve in Levi, there is nothing wrong with Levi being a backup, or them coming close to splitting starts.

Lets say you pay UPL for 3-4 years, and he is who he is (average to above average at least) AND Levi comes on strong and becomes very good to great....what do you do with UPL?  you now have a VERY good backup...OR a very, VERY good trade piece.

I agree that there is risk. There are playoff teams right now though who are paying 8 million plus for their goalies. As the cap goes up, paying $10 million plus for two goalies who split the job would be a reasonable option for some teams.  And, as you say, if both hit then you do have a good trade chip. 

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, Believer said:

He’s a RFA… Offer him $6-7M for 3 years… If UPL decides to negotiate an offer sheet with another team, match it so we don’t lose our investment in him… The market will decide.

Oh my god no. 4 million for 3 is as high as I'd go and it's a little risky and high but likely Adams has to go that high given UPL's season and his desperation.

Your 7 million would mean only Bobrovsky and Vaselevsky would be active goalies paid more.

Ideally I'm paying him 3x3.

[Kristian]

I fully expect Adams to trade him to the Flyers for a second rounder, and see him win a Vezina next year.

[oddoublee]

5 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I posted this a couple months ago, regarding comparables......and this was when he was just starting to play better, he has a longer stretch of good play since this was posted....UPL will likely have 45-50 career wins at the end of this year with 5 or more shutouts. Also keep in mind the goalies listed below were signed with a lower cap. I would expect any of those deals if signed this year would be 5% higher with the cap going up since then.

 

UPL was drafted in the 2nd round in 2017....so..I thought I'd look up what other goalies were drafted in the year or two before him (that might be on their 2nd contract now), how successful they have been and what they got paid at a similar point in their career:

-Connor Ingram (3rd rounder, 2016).  Waiver pickup. 3 yr, $5.85m contract. (1.95 per year) 7 career wins upon signing

-Philp Gustavsson (2nd rounder, 2016). 3 yr, $11.25m contract. (3.75 per year) 32 wins upon signing

-Carter Hart (2nd round, 2016). 3 yr, $11.9m contract. (3.97 per year)  49 career wins upon signing

-MacKenzie Blackwood (2nd round, 2015). 3 yr, $8.4m contact (2.8 per year) 24 career wins upon signing

-Ilya Samsonov (late 1st round, 2015). 1yr, $3.5m contact. (3.5 per year) 79 career wins upon signing

i remember discussing this with you on another thread - and you are dead on. BUT.... I think most fans need to brace themselves for a 4+ million average on his next deal. if the organization wants any of his UFA years - you are looking at 5+ million. 

Cap going up + organizational desperation + organization overzealous past signings = bigger contract for UPL. At least that is how his agent is going to approach it. 

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Guys an RFA and has played like one of the best goaltenders in the NHL since Jan 1. Levi exists and Adams clearly likes him so what do they do here? I don't think you go longer term (over 5 years) with any goalie but I am good in the 4yr 4milaav range. 

Goalies are fickle so I never would go over 4 years, but he’s proven he can handle the starting role given a proper 2 goalie rotation.  I’d be fine with, and expect him to be, 4x4

[7+6=13]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Oh my god no. 4 million for 3 is as high as I'd go and it's a little risky and high but likely Adams has to go that high given UPL's season and his desperation.

Your 7 million would mean only Bobrovsky and Vaselevsky would be active goalies paid more.

Ideally I'm paying him 3x3.

My guess is he meant 6-7 mil total for 3 years. 

[mjd1001]

I really do think you are looking at $4.5m for 3 or 4 years. If I had to guess I think that is the asking price.

For those who say you don't go over $4m....if he refuses to sign a multi-year deal unless you bumped it up to the $4.5-5m range...what do you do?  Look to move him?  Let him go to arbitration where every once in a while you get some crazy numbers?

I think Samsanov went to arbitraion in Toronto last year if I'm not mistaken.  His numbers were slightly better overall, but not as good as the run UPL is on.  The 3.6m he got in arbitration, I guess that would be equivilant to $3.8-$4 with a higher projected cap, so many an arbitration award wouldn't be that bad for one year. But then if he has another good year, the price goes WAY up the following year.

Edited April 5 by mjd1001

[Believer]

1 hour ago, 7+6=13 said:

My guess is he meant 6-7 mil total for 3 years. 

I did… Reality is the market will determine his offer even if UPL has told Adams he wants to remain a Sabre… My bet is he gets at least one other offer… Let’s not lose our multi year investment in him, my point.

[LGR4GM]

55 minutes ago, Believer said:

I did… Reality is the market will determine his offer even if UPL has told Adams he wants to remain a Sabre… My bet is he gets at least one other offer… Let’s not lose our multi year investment in him, my point.

No he won't. NHL gms almost never use offer sheets, like ever. 

[Porous Five Hole]

55 minutes ago, Believer said:

I did… Reality is the market will determine his offer even if UPL has told Adams he wants to remain a Sabre… My bet is he gets at least one other offer… Let’s not lose our multi year investment in him, my point.

UPL is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights, so he has an almost zero chance of leaving in the offseason.  

[GoPuckYourself]

3 years 13.5M or 4.5M AAV is my cap... Is he for real or was he just playing because of the pressure from Levi out of the gate? Will he play like this knowing Levi is out of the picture for now?

Edited April 6 by GoPuckYourself

[North Buffalo]

1 minute ago, GoPuckYourself said:

3 years 4.5M is my cap... Is he for real or was he just playing because of the pressure from Levi out of the gate? Will he play like this knowing Levi is out of the picture for now?

Based on tonight answer is yes... played out of his mind in the first.

[GoPuckYourself]

4 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

Based on tonight answer is yes... played out of his mind in the first.

I just need more than a half of a seasons production, he was Comrie-bad before this resurgence.