The Jeff Skinner decision

[JoeSchmoe]

I already posted the advanced stats (ex GF%). It says he's not so good 5 on 5 at 45.8%. The not-so advanced stats (GF%) have him at 55%. That's pretty good actually... 4th on the team.

But it's his PP where he excels. He's far and away our best PP guy.

You might not like it hearing it, but without question he helps us win games.

[oddoublee]

23 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Fair enough. But dont be surprised if he signs a 2x2 deal with the Leafs or Red Wings and scores 25-30 and is in the playoffs next year. 

well sure - if there are enough solid veterans and leaders around him and the culture is pre built - he is a nice 3rd line winger that gets additional minutes when the team is down multiple goals going into the 3rd period. 

the sabres are not that team. 

also - he is probably not a 25-30 goal scorer in that scenario - probably a 15-20 goal scorer if he maintains interest levels. 

[Getpucksdeep]

1 minute ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I already posted the advanced stats (ex GF%). It says he's not so good 5 on 5 at 45.8%. The not-so advanced stats (GF%) have him at 55%. That's pretty good actually... 4th on the team.

But it's his PP where he excels. He's far and away our best PP guy.

You might not like it hearing it, but without question he helps us win games.

We don't win many games.  Why is that?  I suggest it's because Skinner is selfish and plays by his own rules and the team is not as cohesive as they need to be in this extremely competitive league.  Art and science here. You have data, I have eye test/what I think the player personalites are.  (Admittedly without knowing them, just from observing about 9 hours a week).

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I already posted the advanced stats (ex GF%). It says he's not so good 5 on 5 at 45.8%. The not-so advanced stats (GF%) have him at 55%. That's pretty good actually... 4th on the team.

But it's his PP where he excels. He's far and away our best PP guy.

You might not like it hearing it, but without question he helps us win games.

I think he is terrible on the PP. Yes he has 8 goals and that leads the team but he isn't strong on the puck and isn't the best passer in the world. Think he is now on PP2 which is where he belongs.

 

More from Brind'Mour  after trading away Skinner " I  think it sends a message of what kind of Hurricane we're looking for, what kind of player we want."

The 6 years prior to trading Skinner, the Hurricanes have a record of 192-198 with zero playoff appearances. 35-35-11 in the 2017-18 season.

The next year after trading away Skinner, adding Svechnikov as a rookie and flip Hanifan for Hamilton they go 48-29-7.

 

That 35-25-7 record seems familiar to Sabres fans.

1 hour ago, oddoublee said:

well sure - if there are enough solid veterans and leaders around him and the culture is pre built - he is a nice 3rd line winger that gets additional minutes when the team is down multiple goals going into the 3rd period. 

the sabres are not that team. 

also - he is probably not a 25-30 goal scorer in that scenario - probably a 15-20 goal scorer if he maintains interest levels. 

Actually the reason I don't want  him on the Sabres next year is because I don't think he should be in the Bottom 6 and I think both JJP and Benson have passed him as the top 6 wingers going into next year.

[Crusader1969]

10 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

My guess is that until his production falls off a cliff he'll be on our roster. If he scores 30 this year that will be 3 years in a row he's hit that bench mark or above so I don't see them moving on until that total comes down but I'd love to see them add a better top line LW, maybe Peterka takes over that roll with Thompson and Quinn? That's the hope, then Skinner, Cozens and Tuch line 2. If we can get some better caliber players in our bottom 6 , more Greenway types imo, maybe Kulich makes the leap, Rousek and some veterans would be ideal.

In the 3 years prior to be traded by the Hurricanes she 24, 37 and 28 but they realize its not just about scoring goals and were a much better team immediately after trading him for Cliff Pu and some draft picks.   Sabres need to do the same.

[That Aud Smell]

they're apparently gonna do an encore "between two stalls" segment when they celebrate skinner's 1000th game.

there is something so on-the-nose cruel about the sabres' needing to celebrate this guy's 1000th regular season game in the wake of missing out on the playoffs for the 13th time in a row.

the team and player are a perfect match, it appears.

shoutout to those stalwart fans who will advocate for the guy based on #fancystats (or just goals scored?) . I generally appreciate #fancystats and their utility. If #fancystats do, in fact, say that Skinner is a good and valuable top-6 NHL forward, then Skinner would be the case that proves that there are fundamental flaws (or, at least, limitations) therein.

Edited April 1 by That Aud Smell

[JoeSchmoe]

Here's are team PP stats... Skinner is out #1 power play guy.

Skinner is not our problem. OUR REAL PROBLEM IS SKINNER IS OUR #1 PP GUY. If you want to blame anyone, blame Cozens, Tuch, and Tage for sucking so hard compared to last year. 

Combine this with the fact that year after year our 3rd and 4th lines are a bunch of scrubs.

[Crusader1969]

2 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Here's are team PP stats... Skinner is out #1 power play guy.

Skinner is not our problem. OUR REAL PROBLEM IS SKINNER IS OUR #1 PP GUY. If you want to blame anyone, blame Cozens, Tuch, and Tage for sucking so hard compared to last year. 

Combine this with the fact that year after year our 3rd and 4th lines are a bunch of scrubs.

The 4th line should be guys who wear hard hats and bring it every game. Play physical and provide energy  Not sure I would call them scrubs but definitely not your Jeff Skinner types either.

WHomever had their hands on the construction of PP, be it either Elllis or DG (or both)  needs to be fired into the sun.

[JoeSchmoe]

8 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

The 4th line should be guys who wear hard hats and bring it every game. Play physical and provide energy

All the best teams have 4th lines that score more than they get scored against. Robinson, Krebs, and Girgensons aren't it.

Edited April 1 by JoeSchmoe

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

In the 3 years prior to be traded by the Hurricanes she 24, 37 and 28 but they realize its not just about scoring goals and were a much better team immediately after trading him for Cliff Pu and some draft picks.   Sabres need to do the same.

They became a better team when they replaced Bill Peters with Rod Brind’Amour. Sure, Skinner is not a Brind’Amour kind of player, but neither is Tony DeAngelo and the Hurricanes have made the playoffs with him. 

[thewookie1]

7 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

They became a better team when they replaced Bill Peters with Rod Brind’Amour. Sure, Skinner is not a Brind’Amour kind of player, but neither is Tony DeAngelo and the Hurricanes have made the playoffs with him. 

Major difference is that Skinner was a top player on the team whereas TDA is literally just a 3rd pair sub.

[Crusader1969]

40 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Major difference is that Skinner was a top player on the team whereas TDA is literally just a 3rd pair sub.

Exactly.  Addition by subtraction 

[GoPuckYourself]

4 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

In the 3 years prior to be traded by the Hurricanes she 24, 37 and 28 but they realize its not just about scoring goals and were a much better team immediately after trading him for Cliff Pu and some draft picks.   Sabres need to do the same.

Nobody is picking up that contract imo.

[Night Train]

I believe this next game is game 1000 for Skinner.  Not really a celebration. 

[Archie Lee]

On 3/29/2024 at 11:19 AM, LGR4GM said:

If you buy Skinner out now (2024), the cap ramifications are the following:

2024-25 $1,444,445

2025-26 $4,444,445

2026-27 $6,444,445

2027-28 $2,444,445

2028-29  $2,444,445

2029-30  $2,444,445

If you buyout Skinner in 2025:

2025-26 $4,000,000

2026-27 $6,000,000

2027-28 $2,000,000

2028-29 2,000,000

The more I consider this, the more I think this off-season is the time for the buyout. If you look at this over the period of the next 6 seasons, the buyout #’s show that the only real negative to the buyout this June over next June is the 6th year cap hit of $2,444,445 (vs $0.00 in year 6 if we wait a year). That’s significant to be sure. But years 2-5 are nearly the same with a buyout this June costing a manageable extra amount of $444,445 per season. 

What sways me to this June is the $7,555,555 in savings this year. Now, we don’t know yet if the Sabres are ready to spend money. If they are, though, then the expected increase in the cap combined with the savings on a Skinner buyout would position the Sabres for a major roster overhaul. Assuming a reasonable extension for UPL, a Skinner buyout would leave around $25 million in cap space.

It’s not so much that I think we can’t get anything useful out of Skinner next year as it is that I think we can get more useful things with the cap savings. No question if we spend to the cap this year it will create difficult decisions next off season re: new contracts for Quinn, Peterka, Greenway, Byram and potentially even Levi next year. There is risk.  But if several of those guys have the type of year that it puts us in a difficult spot with the cap, then I believe the phrase is “it’s a good problem to have“. 

[Crusader1969]

I feel the hire of Ruff is pretty well the death shot for Skinners career as a Sabres. He might not get traded but unless there are injuries to Benson and JJP (or regression), Skinner should get used to eating popcorn in the press box.