Will Buffalo be a good place to see the total eclipse of the sun?

[Stoner]

17 hours ago, K-9 said:

Buffalo certainly won’t be the only place marred by cloud cover for the eclipse, as most of the center of totality in the US has clouds in the forecast. While not optimal, it doesn’t have to run the event for people. 
 

I'd say it's ruined if you can't see the event. Imagine paying to see the Sabres play in the dark. Wait...

Meanwhile Buffalo weather nerds are really going out on a limb.

"Cloud forecast during the Monday afternoon eclipse remains uncertain at this junction and may not even be fully known until just a few hours before the event starts."

Nate Silver says hello.

Is the jig completely up on "experts" yet?

As the older folk say, Just look out the window.

[#freejame]

38 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I'd say it's ruined if you can't see the event. Imagine paying to see the Sabres play in the dark. Wait...

Meanwhile Buffalo weather nerds are really going out on a limb.

"Cloud forecast during the Monday afternoon eclipse remains uncertain at this junction and may not even be fully known until just a few hours before the event starts."

Nate Silver says hello.

Is the jig completely up on "experts" yet?

As the older folk say, Just look out the window.

You can sit outside all day and be pessimistic about the weather or you can sit outside all day and be optimistic about the weather.  

[SwampD]

Do people really not go outside because it’s cold or raining?

There is no bad weather, just bad gear.

Of course, if the reason you are going out is to see the sun, it might be an issue. 😂

But K-9 is right, although you might not see it directly, at this point, does anyone really not know what a total eclipse looks like? It will still be kinda nuts to be outside in total darkness during the day.

Wish I was going to be there.

[Stoner]

25 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Do people really not go outside because it’s cold or raining?

There is no bad weather, just bad gear.

Of course, if the reason you are going out is to see the sun, it might be an issue. 😂

But K-9 is right, although you might not see it directly, at this point, does anyone really not know what a total eclipse looks like? It will still be kinda nuts to be outside in total darkness during the day.

Wish I was going to be there.

The darkness does nothing for me. Odd, innit?

[That Aud Smell]

NWS forecast now has clouds building in on Monday — but the trend is for some clearing as the event approaches. 

 

[Weave]

3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

I'd say it's ruined if you can't see the event. Imagine paying to see the Sabres play in the dark. Wait...

Meanwhile Buffalo weather nerds are really going out on a limb.

"Cloud forecast during the Monday afternoon eclipse remains uncertain at this junction and may not even be fully known until just a few hours before the event starts."

Nate Silver says hello.

Is the jig completely up on "experts" yet?

As the older folk say, Just look out the window.

Wait….. wasn’t it just a couple of days ago the NWS was in the pockets of the Buffalo Chamber of Commerce?

I suspect most of this is you playing the grumpy old man character. You are asking meteorologists to predict when an area maybe 60 miles wide is going to have mid or low atmospheric elevations see water vapor condense into microdroplets around a -1hr time window, something their models are poorly tuned to predict given their emphasis on actually impactful predictive modeling.
 

Yes, if you want to know if it going to be party sunny within your viewing horizon around a specific, short period of time, your porch window is always going to be your most accurate tool.

[Stoner]

14 minutes ago, Weave said:

Wait….. wasn’t it just a couple of days ago the NWS was in the pockets of the Buffalo Chamber of Commerce?

I suspect most of this is you playing the grumpy old man character. You are asking meteorologists to predict when an area maybe 60 miles wide is going to have mid or low atmospheric elevations see water vapor condense into microdroplets around a -1hr time window, something their models are poorly tuned to predict given their emphasis on actually impactful predictive modeling.
 

Yes, if you want to know if it going to be party sunny within your viewing horizon around a specific, short period of time, your porch window is always going to be your most accurate tool.

We're 48 hours out. There should be more certainty. You can't just say let's wait until noon on Monday and we'll have a better idea.

[Weave]

11 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

We're 48 hours out. There should be more certainty. You can't just say let's wait until noon on Monday and we'll have a better idea.

Lol you complain that the models can’t predict rain and you want them to predict density of cloud cover in a small area, during a small window of time?

I concede.

[Stoner]

30 minutes ago, Weave said:

Lol you complain that the models can’t predict rain and you want them to predict density of cloud cover in a small area, during a small window of time?

I concede.

I would ask why the same NWS office has a forecast for next Friday for the city of Buffalo, but you conceded, so I won't.

Meteorologists aren't honest until they have to be. Tens of millions of people are looking to them. Kudos I guess for saying who the hell knows. But what about the other 364 days of the year?

[K-9]

4 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

I'd say it's ruined if you can't see the event. Imagine paying to see the Sabres play in the dark. Wait...

Meanwhile Buffalo weather nerds are really going out on a limb.

"Cloud forecast during the Monday afternoon eclipse remains uncertain at this junction and may not even be fully known until just a few hours before the event starts."

Nate Silver says hello.

Is the jig completely up on "experts" yet?

As the older folk say, Just look out the window.

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Meteorologists aren't honest until they have to be.

Not sure who's meant to be encompassed by this. I’ve spent time with the meteorologists who work at the NWS site at the Buffalo airport. Those are some of the most diligent, honest nerds I’ve ever met.

And I also can’t figure out what aspect I would emphasize more: That they’re diligent, honest, or nerds. Copiously equal parts, I guess.

[SDS]

5 hours ago, SwampD said:

does anyone really not know what a total eclipse looks like?

This is insanely dismissive. We have the world's complete knowledge at our finger tips. We know what everything looks like. Why go anywhere? Why experience anything with your own eyes?

[Weave]

3 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

I would ask why the same NWS office has a forecast for next Friday for the city of Buffalo, but you conceded, so I won't.

Meteorologists aren't honest until they have to be. Tens of millions of people are looking to them. Kudos I guess for saying who the hell knows. But what about the other 364 days of the year?

Thry create “weather” forecasts, not “sky viewing “ forecasts.  You are being unrealistic.

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, SDS said:

This is insanely dismissive. We have the world's complete knowledge at our finger tips. We know what everything looks like. Why go anywhere? Why experience anything with your own eyes?

I was not being dismissive. I totally agree with you and you totally missed my point. 

My point was that even though you might not get to see it directly because of cloud cover, the experience of being there will still be completely worth it. I wish I could be there.

[Wyldnwoody44]

In other news, I just zoomed in on the map and realized that I'm about a 1/2 mile outside the zone of totality. I was planning on having a porch cigar and watching, but now. If I want the "real deal" I'll have to hop in the truck and drive a little ways down the street. 

It's on the edge and thus, much quicker eclipse time, and I live in the sticks so it shouldn't be a big deal to drive down the road. But thus makes me sad 

[Stoner]

16 hours ago, Weave said:

Thry create “weather” forecasts, not “sky viewing “ forecasts.  You are being unrealistic.

What I do with the forecast is up to me.

I'm doing research on cloud patterns in spring near Lake Erie and would like to come to Buffalo next weekend.

Aud's nerds at the airport are telling me Saturday will be partly sunny (mostly cloudy but after another work week with crummy weather they need to give us some hope).

According to you that forecast is unrealistic. What's the point then?

My problem with meteorologists is they want the cool, smart cred to tell us the weather five, seven, 10, 45 (!) days in advance, and have us believe it. Normally it only ruins someone's outdoor plans. But when 10s of millions of people are counting on it, suddenly it's... What do we know? Check back at 1:30 on Monday.

They're bums.

[SwampD]

15 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

What I do with the forecast is up to me.

I'm doing research on cloud patterns in spring near Lake Erie and would like to come to Buffalo next weekend.

Aud's nerds at the airport are telling me Saturday will be partly sunny (mostly cloudy but after another work week with crummy weather they need to give us some hope).

According to you that forecast is unrealistic. What's the point then?

My problem with meteorologists is they want the cool, smart cred to tell us the weather five, seven, 10, 45 (!) days in advance, and have us believe it. Normally it only ruins someone's outdoor plans. But when 10s of millions of people are counting on it, suddenly it's... What do we know? Check back at 1:30 on Monday.

They're bums.

Why would you go to Buffalo? Aren’t you getting a total eclipse where you are located? I would not want to be on any roads anywhere near Buffalo for this. Just find a nice quiet hay field on some back road (even just the shoulder of the road) or any school soccer field anywhere around there. That’s what I would do. 

[SwampD]

Actually, I’d probably go to Gratiot Point to see it.

[Stoner]

14 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Why would you go to Buffalo? Aren’t you getting a total eclipse where you are located? I would not want to be on any roads anywhere near Buffalo for this. Just find a nice quiet hay field on some back road (even just the shoulder of the road) or any school soccer field anywhere around there. That’s what I would do. 

I would drive an hour or two to see it if local conditions are poor, but there still isn't good guidance on where that might be. Burlington VT and Akron OH, sure.

The original point of this thread was to ask if being near the shoreline would make sense on an otherwise cloudy day inland.

[SwampD]

21 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I would drive an hour or two to see it if local conditions are poor, but there still isn't good guidance on where that might be. Burlington VT and Akron OH, sure.

The original point of this thread was to ask if being near the shoreline would make sense on an otherwise cloudy day inland.

Depends on the kind of clouds, I guess. If they’re lake effect clouds, maybe. If they are part of a larger system, though, you’re screwed.

[GoPuckYourself]

I just have to look up into the sky, I don't have to go anywhere. Now let's hope the buffalo weather doesn't ruin the experience like usual.

[That Aud Smell]

2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

They're bums.

Horrendous take.

[SwampD]

I like to think back, before science, before we know what we know now. Can you imagine the anxiety and chaos that would happen if there was an earthquake, and then three days later the sun was blackened out?

I’m sure there are people, still, that believe the gods are pissed. I’m not sure that I don’t even believe that.

[SDS]

2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Burlington VT

We changed our plans and instead of going to Buffalo that’s where we’re going. Just passed New York City.

[SwampD]

6 minutes ago, SDS said:

We changed our plans and instead of going to Buffalo that’s where we’re going. Just passed New York City.

Hope you are already there. The roads from here are going to be awful.